Gamma No Threat to FL

[KatDaddy]

Yes Air Force Met, Rita was humbling experience thinking I was going to lose everything I own as well.

Didnt everyone experience enough stress and concern over the tropics already. This is not a named storm yet.

[WxGuy1]

Doesn't a developing system moving with the jet stream tend to get less sheered? ala Wilma?

Yes...but with upper level winds forecast to 80-90 kts...it would have to be moving at about 60 kts in order to even stay in one piece.

So...either it gets sheared...or the whole timing thing is way off and it moves a lot faster than forecast....which means it is there sooner than 84 hours and before the 90 kt winds but still under the shear of some 60 kt winds.

How dare you bring up anything other than the couple of models that somehow have Gamma smacking Florida! We don't know your "science" and "meteorology" around here! You're "reasoning"... pff... We just need one shed of a slightest possibility of a cyclone affected the US and we're gonna run with it for all it's worth! Doomsday! Storms that defy physics!

LOL ok, I'm NOT making fun of this board, but just some members who always seem to cry wolf at the tiniest inkling of a possibility of a US interaction, particularly when they don't look at the entire situation (e.g. they only look at a couple of models that typically are outperformed by other models including UKMET, NOGAPS, GFS, etc).

[Air Force Met]

Yes Air Force Met, Rita was humbling experience thinking I was going to lose everything I own as well.

Didnt everyone experience enough stress and concern over the tropics already. This is not a named storm yet.

I actually felt like a caged animal...not being able to leave. My wife was in Austin about half out of her mind knowing that I was sitting here on the coast being forced to ride it out.

1 year until retirement

[cjrciadt]

these maps put me at ease

[Damar91]

ok, I've got a handle on what's going to happen. The next cold front will move down through Florida and interject Gamma with tons of cold air, and instead of rain and wind, it will have SNOW and wind. Blizzard conditions in south Florida.
( Just kidding- the mood is too serious around here for a area of showers and t-storms!)

[SWFLMom]

I think this season has everyone on edge.

I think you are right. It has been quite a season and many here have suffered serious damage or have been through the anxiety of near misses. Our nerves are shot. I don't think most of us Floridians are panicking, we are just keeping an eye on this thing.

[WxGuy1]

these maps put me at ease

I wouldn't get too worked up over it... Just look at the models on that page! You have the BAM models, the NH98E (which it a purely climo model I believe), the GFDL, and the LBAR. If you look at ALL the other models (UKMET, NOGAPS, GFS, etc), most of which tend to do better than the LBAR and the BAM varieties, none of them show any sort of direct Florida impact.

Go look at http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/ ... I'm NOT saying there is not chance of an interaction with Florida. However, I'd examine other dynamical model output before I get too worried about what the BAM and LBAR are saying... BTW, the low near Florida that the dynamical models forecast is extratropical... Most models whip this low up the east coast in a semi-nor'easter fashion -- it's not tropical.

[Air Force Met]

these maps put me at ease

It should. The GFDL has it moving on average of 32 kts and speeding up as it passes you. How tropical do you think something moving that fast is likely to be?

[Brent]

We may see a Michelle track-like scenario.

That's EXACTLY what I think, although it won't be as strong.

[cjrciadt]

these maps put me at ease

It should. The GFDL has it moving on average of 32 kts and speeding up as it passes you. How tropical do you think something moving that fast is likely to be?

I was playing around with a strong front moving through, it wont be a big deal here at all.

[Weatherboy1]

Just my opinion, but given climatology, the shear AFM is talking about, the projected potential path, etc., "gamma" could hit South FL, but it won't be more than a strong breeze and some rain by that point. Someone else here referenced Michele in 2001. She was a 135 mph hurricane when she hit Cuba...

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2001/pub/al152001.public.025.html

That's one heck of a storm, but it didn't matter. In less than two days, she was rapidly heading NE, making the transition to an extratropical system and weakening into basically nothing. That's what happens in late November. You have super-strong upper level winds that shear things apart, you don't have enough warm, moist tropical air once you get north of roughly 22N, etc.

Again, just my opinion, but it's important people realize the chances of another Wilma are so slim they might as well be none. More likely, this will end up about Mitch strength (when he crossed South FL in 1998, that is, at about 55 mph) -- or possibly even weaker.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/pub/PAAL1398.052

[Brent]

these maps put me at ease

It should. The GFDL has it moving on average of 32 kts and speeding up as it passes you. How tropical do you think something moving that fast is likely to be?

It won't be... it'll be a sheared elongated hybrid rainmaker. Nothing worse than a system you would see in the winter.

[Air Force Met]

these maps put me at ease

It should. The GFDL has it moving on average of 32 kts and speeding up as it passes you. How tropical do you think something moving that fast is likely to be?

It won't be... it'll be a sheared elongated hybrid rainmaker. Nothing worse than a system you would see in the winter.

Exactly my point. Anything Gamma may be in the next day or two will be quickly transitioning into an extratropical low by the time it gets to Florida. Lot's of rain and some wind. Nothing more.

[Zadok]

Well we went out and got gassed up and got some more bottled water. Cannned goods already on the shelf just in case. My thoughts from a processs analysis standpoint are that we in south florida stand a good chance of getting something from this. Sad Sad indeed....

[DESTRUCTION5]

Well we went out and got gassed up and got some more bottled water. Cannned goods already on the shelf just in case. My thoughts from a processs analysis standpoint are that we in south florida stand a good chance of getting something from this. Sad Sad indeed....

Don't you have enough Cranberry sauce? LOL

[SWFLMom]

Well we went out and got gassed up and got some more bottled water. Cannned goods already on the shelf just in case. My thoughts from a processs analysis standpoint are that we in south florida stand a good chance of getting something from this. Sad Sad indeed....

LOL, I just donated the last of my hurricane canned goods for a food drive. I'm not about to go and stock up again just yet though.

[Zadok]

Don't you have enough Cranberry sauce? LOL

The winds for me won't be important. But the electrical utility grid is very weak at this point. It won't take much.

[mike815]

Actually my earlier post of it being a fantastic day here was incorrect. It is actuall y quit humid and becoming very cloudy. That front wasnt very strong now was it? It was slightly cooler yesterday but it is definetly more humid than i thought.

[Decomdoug]

This has got to be a bad joke!

[Air Force Met]

This has got to be a bad joke!

What has got to be a bad joke? A lot of rain?