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Gamma No Threat to FL
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gatorcane
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Gamma No Threat to FL
I changed the title per member requests.
Have a very Happy Thanksgiving!
Have a very Happy Thanksgiving!
Last edited by gatorcane on Sat Nov 19, 2005 7:06 pm, edited 3 times in total.
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South of Cuba water temps are quite high, I can see a pretty strong storm
possible but close to florida waters are much colder of course; any storm would have to be moving pretty quickly to avoid a significant reduction in intensity near florida. Lets say the max threat is a fast cat 2 hittting south florida; while a more likely scenario is tropical storm conditions.
The next 24 hours should be pretty interesting...I'd like to see the model runs
once (if) we have Gamma.
possible but close to florida waters are much colder of course; any storm would have to be moving pretty quickly to avoid a significant reduction in intensity near florida. Lets say the max threat is a fast cat 2 hittting south florida; while a more likely scenario is tropical storm conditions.
The next 24 hours should be pretty interesting...I'd like to see the model runs
once (if) we have Gamma.
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boca_chris wrote:and the latest models take it over S. Florida (Palm Beach, Broward, Miami-Dade).
What models bring it over south Florida? I don't see any of the main models bringing it over south Florida! http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/ ... GFS, NOGAPS, UKMET, GFDL, etc... None of them bring it over Florida. The BAMM and BAMD do, but 2 out of many more isn't saying much... Ok, the LBAR does, but cmon now, I'd weight all of those models combined as much as a single main dynamical model (NOGAPS, UKMET, GFDL, and GFS). On a seperate note, there will be a very intense extratropical cyclone that'll affect the northeastern US in a few days, but that is independent of the development of this system.
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gatorcane
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That link does not reflect what you say at all. The global models are not really doing much at all with it...but it's early and it's developing fast. The model runs I saw can be found at the top of this thread
Bullseye on the FL straits or S. Florida....
Bullseye on the FL straits or S. Florida....
Last edited by gatorcane on Fri Nov 18, 2005 1:59 am, edited 1 time in total.
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boca_chris wrote:That link does not reflect what you say at all. The global models are not really doing much at all with it...but it's early and it's developing fast. The model runs I saw can be found at the top of this thread
Bullseye on the FL straits or S. Florida....
Chris,
The "models" in the image in the first post are BAMM, BAMD, NHC98e (which isn't a real model per se), and LBAR. I'll take a dynamical model over these any day. NHC98 is a climo model I believe, the LBAR is, well, the LBAR (
)... The BAMs aren't always bad, but the BAMD won't be a good forecast until the storm is well-organized and deep (thus the BAM Deep). Until that time, the low-level center will move more similar to that forecast by the BAMS or BAMM.
I'm NOT saying that it won't affect Florida. However, before you go around saying that all the models are showing a direct Florida landfall, you should substantiate your claims. The fact is, none of the dynamical models (UKMET, NOGAPS, GFS, GFDL, etc) show this solution. The BAM shallow and medium-depth would indicate a potential Florida impact, as would the LBAR. However, that's three models out of 9 that indicate a direct Florida inpact -- I'd hardly call that to indicate that "the latest models take it over S. Florida" (from your post above).
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gatorcane
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Well, your points are well taken but considering she continues WNW and the models are pulling her NNW already now, I'd say we will see a shift somewhat left of some of those models...
Just my thinking.....
You HAVE to be concerned in S. Florida looking at what is unfolding in the NW Caribbean tonight...certainly a S. Florida hit is possible.
Just my thinking.....
You HAVE to be concerned in S. Florida looking at what is unfolding in the NW Caribbean tonight...certainly a S. Florida hit is possible.
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boca_chris wrote:I'm afraid the front is losing some of it's punch as it tries to move SE....but there are no troughs schedule to come through behind it anytime soon...so I can't see it jetting off to the ENE as some people believe...
Chris,
The subtropical jet is producing southwesterly flow across the Gulf of Mexico, and the GFS forecasts a significant trough to develop into the Gulf in a couple of days, which is a precursor to an incredibly amplified synoptic pattern forecast to develop by mid next week (that trough along the east coast is ridiculously amplified). This flow pattern is not entirely certain, however, particularly since the NAM has a considerably different upper-level synoptic pattern of the eastern US.
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CharleySurvivor
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CHRISTY
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