Invest 93L Caribbean,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

#261 Postby **brunota2003** » Thu Nov 17, 2005 9:29 pm

Cat 12 The End of the next Ice Age...

Forecaster Colby · #262 Postby **Forecaster Colby** » Thu Nov 17, 2005 9:30 pm

Now, back on topic: :blowup:

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/archdat/trop ... N-832W.jpg

Thats some very good structure.

mike815 · #263 Postby **mike815** » Thu Nov 17, 2005 9:30 pm

ok now lets get back on track...

mike815 · #264 Postby **mike815** » Thu Nov 17, 2005 9:31 pm

thanks for that link it does have a nice structure to it.

MiamiensisWx · #265 Postby **MiamiensisWx** » Thu Nov 17, 2005 9:32 pm

Yep... it looks fairly well organized...

#266 Postby **brunota2003** » Thu Nov 17, 2005 9:32 pm

Ok, its back, now get the name Gamma then proceed to the next set of doors on the right where they are going to put you to sleep, thank you, and Happy Holidays!!!

EDIT: Wrong Thread, oops...its been a long season, lol... :lol:

WindRunner · #267 Postby **WindRunner** » Thu Nov 17, 2005 9:32 pm

A second 00Z model run with the storm much further south and a little more east. Nothing really interesting, just a little FYI.

362
WHXX01 KWBC 180157
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

.....THE FOLLOWING IS A TEST MESSAGE.....

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL932005) ON 20051118 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
051118 0000 051118 1200 051119 0000 051119 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 13.7N 83.7W 14.7N 85.2W 15.8N 86.4W 17.1N 87.1W
BAMM 13.7N 83.7W 14.6N 85.0W 15.5N 86.1W 16.4N 86.8W
A98E 13.7N 83.7W 14.6N 84.6W 15.3N 85.6W 16.2N 86.3W
LBAR 13.7N 83.7W 14.6N 85.1W 16.0N 86.2W 17.9N 87.0W
SHIP 25KTS 28KTS 32KTS 34KTS
DSHP 25KTS 26KTS 26KTS 31KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
051120 0000 051121 0000 051122 0000 051123 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 18.8N 87.0W 24.5N 82.4W 32.0N 70.7W 39.1N 58.4W
BAMM 17.3N 87.3W 20.0N 86.5W 25.0N 77.9W 32.5N 65.1W
A98E 17.8N 86.2W 21.1N 84.6W 25.6N 78.0W 34.7N 64.0W
LBAR 19.9N 87.0W 26.6N 82.9W 33.1N 68.0W 27.3N 55.1W
SHIP 33KTS 25KTS 0KTS 0KTS
DSHP 30KTS 21KTS 0KTS 0KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 13.7N LONCUR = 83.7W DIRCUR = 320DEG SPDCUR = 6KT
LATM12 = 12.6N LONM12 = 83.0W DIRM12 = 311DEG SPDM12 = 5KT
LATM24 = 12.1N LONM24 = 82.0W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1005MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD = 175NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

.....THE ABOVE HAS BEEN A TEST MESSAGE.....

fuzzyblow · #268 Postby **fuzzyblow** » Thu Nov 17, 2005 9:33 pm

LOL can we dance on it :101:

The end of the beginning...

Forecaster Colby · #269 Postby **Forecaster Colby** » Thu Nov 17, 2005 9:33 pm

There is one difference...the SHIPS and GFDL don't dissipate it anymore :roll:

and

at this outflow! http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html ! That looks like a Major Hurricane's.

MiamiensisWx · #270 Postby **MiamiensisWx** » Thu Nov 17, 2005 9:35 pm

fuzzyblow wrote:LOL can we dance on it

The end of the beginning...

...and the process of starting all over again begins!

mike815 · #271 Postby **mike815** » Thu Nov 17, 2005 9:36 pm

Ive noticed the outflow. It looks pretty healthy

Forecaster Colby · #272 Postby **Forecaster Colby** » Thu Nov 17, 2005 9:37 pm

CapeVerdeWave wrote:
fuzzyblow wrote:LOL can we dance on it

The end of the beginning...

...and the process of starting all over again begins!

Wow, you're like the epitome of on-topic-ness.

MiamiensisWx · #273 Postby **MiamiensisWx** » Thu Nov 17, 2005 9:37 pm

mike815 wrote:Ive noticed the outflow. It looks pretty healthy

Agreed on the outflow... outflow looks fairly healthy...

MiamiensisWx · #274 Postby **MiamiensisWx** » Thu Nov 17, 2005 9:38 pm

Forecaster Colby wrote:Wow, you're like the epitome of on-topic-ness.

Thanks... is that good or bad? What exactly are you referring to?

#275 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu Nov 17, 2005 10:34 pm

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-SEVEN.
THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR TROPICAL STORM
FORCE... BUT IT STILL DOES NOT APPEAR TO HAVE A CLOSED SURFACE
CIRCULATION. A NEARBY BUT SEPARATE WEATHER SYSTEM... AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA AND MOVING TOWARD
HONDURAS... IS PRODUCING A SMALL AREA OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY NEAR
ITS CIRCULATION CENTER. HOWEVER... THIS SYSTEM IS INLAND AND
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED UNLESS IT MOVES BACK OVER
WATER. FORMATION OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR A TROPICAL STORM IS
POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
SO... EITHER THROUGH REGENERATION OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
TWENTY-SEVEN... OR DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY
OVER NICARAGUA. ANOTHER AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS AREA TOMORROW... IF
NECESSARY.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND ADJACENT LAND AREAS
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS COMPLEX AREA OF DISTURBED
WEATHER. EVEN IF TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT DOES NOT OCCUR...
HEAVY RAINS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS IN
PORTIONS OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS AND COULD SPREAD INTO BELIZE...
NORTHERN GUATEMALA... AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO. THESE
RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

FORECASTER KNABB

10:30 PM TWO

mike815 · #276 Postby **mike815** » Thu Nov 17, 2005 10:35 pm

Wow this is so complicated they say TS now come on Gamma. Man that D mad my head spin. lol

CHRISTY · #277 Postby **CHRISTY** » Fri Nov 18, 2005 7:28 am

convection continues to flare up... i think we have a TD of mabe GAMMA by this afternoon

Anonymous · #278 Postby **Anonymous** » Fri Nov 18, 2005 7:48 am

Possible developing center?

mike815 · #279 Postby **mike815** » Fri Nov 18, 2005 8:05 am

Thats what im seeing also.

#280 Postby **HURAKAN** » Fri Nov 18, 2005 8:17 am

It seems that a LLC is developing or has developed in the area floydbuster pointed out.

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