Tornado outbreak

[Windtalker1]

Have we ever have a Nov with so many destructive tornado's? What can it mean for the tropic formation of more storms?

[Anonymous]

Have we ever have a Nov with so many destructive tornado's? What can it mean for the tropic formation of more storms?

Yes....in Nov 2002, there were 82 tornadoes...and thats like..the 4th biggest November outbreak. This outbreak probably ranks #6 or so. As for a link to tropical formation...hmmmm.

[Weatherfreak14]

I guess rthe question is...... IS these disasters The Tsunami, Tornados, Earthquakes etc that has been happening inte past 10 years could be all tied together?

Especially the Relation of tornados and the tropics?

[mike815]

I dont know about that. It has been very active this november. Quite an outbreak.

[MaximilianRs]

I doubt the disasters are linked or part of some serious global change. There have been bigger earthquakes, bigger tsunamis, worse tornado outbreaks, and other extremely active hurricane seasons. This hurricane season and last years were just particularly potent and aimed hurricanes at the right (or wrong) places.

[WxGuy1]

Part of the apparent rise in global disasters has been just that -- apparent. News organizations are larger, so more resources are able to report on these disasters. In addition, the media coverage is more intense solely because more folks think there are more disasters. That have been huge earthquakes in the past, there've been large tsunamis in the past, and there have been huge tornado outbreaks in the past. And statistically, there are bound to happen in the same year one time or another. Specifically regarding the recent outbreak, we tend to see this type of a autumn outbreak every 3-5 years. And actually, the overall synoptic setup is almost always the exact same -- large, negatively or neutrally tilted longwave trough, rich gulf moisture that has been able to stream northward from the Gulf, intense cold-air diving southward in the Plains from Canada (increasing baroclinicity, deepening the trough, etc), and so forth. Nov 2002 had one, and others in the past have had large outbreaks as well. For what it's worth, given the 25-30 tornadoes confirmed thus far, I'd only call this a "moderate" tornado outbreak, obviously nothing like 5-3-99, 5-4-03, etc.

[P.K.]

I was reading a Journal of Meteorology article from the 1980s on this just the other day, increased reporting really helps to make people think events are more frequent.

[WxGuy1]

[quote="P.K."]I was reading a Journal of Meteorology article from the 1980s on this just the other day, increased reporting really helps to make people think events are more frequent.[/quote

Yes, this is particularly true of tornado reports. If you look at climo, there is a jump in tornadoes reported in the early 70s (well, a rise in the 5-yr mean tornado count), when damage assessment became more thorough and common. There was another jump in the early 90s (I believe), largely associated with the arrival of the WSR-88D radar network, which made it possible to send out tornado assessment teams for areas that had no spotters or actual reports. For example, a radar scan could pick up an intense low-level mesocyclone at night... Despite no actual reports of tornadoes, the particular NWSFO may send out a team based solely on the presence of the strong rotation seen on radar.

[P.K.]

That has certainly been the case with increases in the report over here following the journals Weather and the International Journal of Meteorology being set up. A 5 year period is rather short to seriously look at averages though. No doppler radar yet though.

[Windtalker1]

Part of the apparent rise in global disasters has been just that -- apparent. News organizations are larger, so more resources are able to report on these disasters. In addition, the media coverage is more intense solely because more folks think there are more disasters. That have been huge earthquakes in the past, there've been large tsunamis in the past, and there have been huge tornado outbreaks in the past. And statistically, there are bound to happen in the same year one time or another. Specifically regarding the recent outbreak, we tend to see this type of a autumn outbreak every 3-5 years. And actually, the overall synoptic setup is almost always the exact same -- large, negatively or neutrally tilted longwave trough, rich gulf moisture that has been able to stream northward from the Gulf, intense cold-air diving southward in the Plains from Canada (increasing baroclinicity, deepening the trough, etc), and so forth. Nov 2002 had one, and others in the past have had large outbreaks as well. For what it's worth, given the 25-30 tornadoes confirmed thus far, I'd only call this a "moderate" tornado outbreak, obviously nothing like 5-3-99, 5-4-03, etc.

Besides Nov 2002 has there been an outbreak of the likes we are seeing in November? We know there has been many in the spring, but late Fall?

[f5]

i may risk violating the rules but Jesus talked about these things in Matthew 24 i won't go any further

[mike815]

thats interesting.

[jkt21787]

i may risk violating the rules but Jesus talked about these things in Matthew 24 i won't go any further

Why even post this?

You act this is some unprecendented event. Its NOT. In fact, this is FAR from the biggest November outbreak on record. There have been much bigger through the years, and its common.

Stop watching that Category 7 movie so much.

[Windtalker1]

i may risk violating the rules but Jesus talked about these things in Matthew 24 i won't go any further

Why even post this?

You act this is some unprecendented event. Its NOT. In fact, this is FAR from the biggest November outbreak on record. There have been much bigger through the years, and its common.

Stop watching that Category 7 movie so much.

What years? Did we have big hurricanes the next?? questions, questions, questions....

[f5]

i may risk violating the rules but Jesus talked about these things in Matthew 24 i won't go any further

Why even post this?

You act this is some unprecendented event. Its NOT. In fact, this is FAR from the biggest November outbreak on record. There have been much bigger through the years, and its common.

Stop watching that Category 7 movie so much.

what i was talking about is that records are falling off the cliff everyday vs 1 every 5 or 10 yrs.i was just giving my own explanation

[jkt21787]

i may risk violating the rules but Jesus talked about these things in Matthew 24 i won't go any further

Why even post this?

You act this is some unprecendented event. Its NOT. In fact, this is FAR from the biggest November outbreak on record. There have been much bigger through the years, and its common.

Stop watching that Category 7 movie so much.

What years? Did we have big hurricanes the next?? questions, questions, questions....

2002, 2001, 1994, 1989, 1988, 1900 as well, and those are just the ones immediately in my head I'm sure there were other big ones. No tropical activity associated with any. Each of these would be associated with a large scale trough that swept the entire United States and kept tropical activity limited and far away.

F5, you can not say tornado records are falling off cliffs this year. We are FAR from any kind of records in this dept. In fact, this year has been one of the most Tornado-LESS years on the record. Add that to the fact there was a huge outbreak 105 years ago in 1900 with 70+ fatalities, and your theory is basically shot down.

[f5]

i may risk violating the rules but Jesus talked about these things in Matthew 24 i won't go any further

Why even post this?

You act this is some unprecendented event. Its NOT. In fact, this is FAR from the biggest November outbreak on record. There have been much bigger through the years, and its common.

Stop watching that Category 7 movie so much.

What years? Did we have big hurricanes the next?? questions, questions, questions....

2002, 2001, 1994, 1989, 1988, 1900 as well, and those are just the ones immediately in my head I'm sure there were other big ones. No tropical activity associated with any. Each of these would be associated with a large scale trough that swept the entire United States and kept tropical activity limited and far away.

F5, you can not say tornado records are falling off cliffs this year. We are FAR from any kind of records in this dept. In fact, this year has been one of the most Tornado-LESS years on the record. Add that to the fact there was a huge outbreak 105 years ago in 1900 with 70+ fatalities, and your theory is basically shot down.

i was not just talking about tornadoes i'm talking about nature as a WHOLE.i keep hearing the pharse I HAVEN"T SEEN ANYTHING LIKE IT IN ALL MY YRS.i would go into detailteaching matthew 24 but i'm not allowed to post stuff like that on this forum

[jkt21787]

i may risk violating the rules but Jesus talked about these things in Matthew 24 i won't go any further

Why even post this?

You act this is some unprecendented event. Its NOT. In fact, this is FAR from the biggest November outbreak on record. There have been much bigger through the years, and its common.

Stop watching that Category 7 movie so much.

What years? Did we have big hurricanes the next?? questions, questions, questions....

2002, 2001, 1994, 1989, 1988, 1900 as well, and those are just the ones immediately in my head I'm sure there were other big ones. No tropical activity associated with any. Each of these would be associated with a large scale trough that swept the entire United States and kept tropical activity limited and far away.

F5, you can not say tornado records are falling off cliffs this year. We are FAR from any kind of records in this dept. In fact, this year has been one of the most Tornado-LESS years on the record. Add that to the fact there was a huge outbreak 105 years ago in 1900 with 70+ fatalities, and your theory is basically shot down.

i was not just talking about tornadoes i'm talking about nature as a WHOLE.i keep hearing the pharse I HAVEN"T SEEN ANYTHING LIKE IT IN ALL MY YRS.i would go into detailteaching matthew 24 but i'm not allowed to post stuff like that on this forum

Its called mass media, and its distorting history in a bad way.

[mike815]

yeah it is. very tru it seems like it.

[jkt21787]

Part of the apparent rise in global disasters has been just that -- apparent. News organizations are larger, so more resources are able to report on these disasters. In addition, the media coverage is more intense solely because more folks think there are more disasters. That have been huge earthquakes in the past, there've been large tsunamis in the past, and there have been huge tornado outbreaks in the past. And statistically, there are bound to happen in the same year one time or another. Specifically regarding the recent outbreak, we tend to see this type of a autumn outbreak every 3-5 years. And actually, the overall synoptic setup is almost always the exact same -- large, negatively or neutrally tilted longwave trough, rich gulf moisture that has been able to stream northward from the Gulf, intense cold-air diving southward in the Plains from Canada (increasing baroclinicity, deepening the trough, etc), and so forth. Nov 2002 had one, and others in the past have had large outbreaks as well. For what it's worth, given the 25-30 tornadoes confirmed thus far, I'd only call this a "moderate" tornado outbreak, obviously nothing like 5-3-99, 5-4-03, etc.

THANK YOU!!