45kts....
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0523 BOLAVEN (0523)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 161800UTC 13.6N 129.2E FAIR
MOVE S SLOWLY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
30KT 160NM
FORECAST
24HF 171800UTC 14.4N 128.0E 80NM 70%
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
48HF 181800UTC 14.7N 125.8E 150NM 70%
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
72HF 191800UTC 15.7N 123.7E 220NM 70%
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
TD Bolaven (24W): Dissipates over Luzon
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Forum rules
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.
-
Dave C
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 868
- Joined: Thu Sep 04, 2003 4:36 pm
- Location: Middleboro, Mass.(midway between Cape Cod and Boston)
hi
Nice sat. pic. of tropical storm
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/guam/GUAMCOL.JPG
Nice outflow channel to it's north.
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/guam/GUAMCOL.JPG
Nice outflow channel to it's north.
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MiamiensisWx
WTPN31 PGTW 162100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 24W (BOLAVEN) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
161800Z --- NEAR 13.9N 129.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.9N 129.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 14.1N 129.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 14.4N 128.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 14.7N 127.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 15.0N 125.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 15.6N 122.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 15.7N 118.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 15.5N 115.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
---
REMARKS:
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 24W (BOLAVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 515 NM
EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. 162100Z POSITION NEAR 14.0N 129.6E.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 161800Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 170300Z, 170900Z, 171500Z AND 172100Z.//
NNNN
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 24W (BOLAVEN) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
161800Z --- NEAR 13.9N 129.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.9N 129.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 14.1N 129.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 14.4N 128.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 14.7N 127.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 15.0N 125.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 15.6N 122.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 15.7N 118.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 15.5N 115.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
---
REMARKS:
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 24W (BOLAVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 515 NM
EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. 162100Z POSITION NEAR 14.0N 129.6E.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 161800Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 170300Z, 170900Z, 171500Z AND 172100Z.//
NNNN
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 38
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
WTPN31 PGTW 170300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 24W (BOLAVEN) WARNING NR 015
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 24W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
170000Z --- NEAR 13.6N 129.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.6N 129.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 13.5N 128.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 13.5N 127.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 13.7N 125.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 13.9N 123.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 14.7N 119.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 14.6N 117.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 14.0N 115.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
---
REMARKS:
170300Z POSITION NEAR 13.6N 128.9E.
TYPHOON (TY) 24W (BOLAVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 480 NM
EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
170000Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 170900Z, 171500Z, 172100Z
AND 180300Z.//
BOLAVEN BECOMES A TYPHOON AND THE THREAT TO THE PHILIPPINES INCREASES BY THE SECOND.
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P.K.
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 5149
- Joined: Thu Sep 23, 2004 5:57 pm
- Location: Watford, England
- Contact:
55kts
WTPQ20 RJTD 170600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 0523 BOLAVEN (0523)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 170600UTC 13.1N 128.7E FAIR
MOVE WSW SLOWLY
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
50KT 40NM
30KT 160NM
FORECAST
24HF 180600UTC 13.6N 127.1E 80NM 70%
MOVE W 07KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
48HF 190600UTC 14.1N 122.9E 150NM 70%
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
72HF 200600UTC 14.4N 118.8E 220NM 70%
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT =
WTPQ20 RJTD 170600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 0523 BOLAVEN (0523)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 170600UTC 13.1N 128.7E FAIR
MOVE WSW SLOWLY
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
50KT 40NM
30KT 160NM
FORECAST
24HF 180600UTC 13.6N 127.1E 80NM 70%
MOVE W 07KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
48HF 190600UTC 14.1N 122.9E 150NM 70%
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
72HF 200600UTC 14.4N 118.8E 220NM 70%
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT =
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 38
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
WTPN31 PGTW 171500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 24W (BOLAVEN) WARNING NR 017
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
171200Z --- NEAR 13.2N 128.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.2N 128.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 13.3N 126.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 13.4N 125.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 13.6N 123.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 13.8N 121.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 14.1N 117.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 13.8N 114.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 13.6N 112.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
---
REMARKS:
171500Z POSITION NEAR 13.2N 127.9E.
TYPHOON (TY) 24W (BOLAVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 430 NM EAST OF
MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171200Z IS 29
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 172100Z, 180300Z, 180900Z AND 181500Z.//
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 24W (BOLAVEN) WARNING NR 017
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
171200Z --- NEAR 13.2N 128.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.2N 128.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 13.3N 126.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 13.4N 125.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 13.6N 123.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 13.8N 121.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 14.1N 117.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 13.8N 114.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 13.6N 112.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
---
REMARKS:
171500Z POSITION NEAR 13.2N 127.9E.
TYPHOON (TY) 24W (BOLAVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 430 NM EAST OF
MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171200Z IS 29
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 172100Z, 180300Z, 180900Z AND 181500Z.//
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P.K.
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 5149
- Joined: Thu Sep 23, 2004 5:57 pm
- Location: Watford, England
- Contact:
Almost a typhoon.
WTPQ20 RJTD 171500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 0523 BOLAVEN (0523)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 171500UTC 13.4N 128.4E FAIR
MOVE W 07KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
50KT 50NM
30KT 200NM
FORECAST
24HF 181500UTC 13.9N 125.2E 80NM 70%
MOVE W 09KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
45HF 191200UTC 14.1N 122.1E 150NM 70%
MOVE W 09KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
69HF 201200UTC 14.3N 117.3E 220NM 70%
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT =
WTPQ20 RJTD 171500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 0523 BOLAVEN (0523)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 171500UTC 13.4N 128.4E FAIR
MOVE W 07KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
50KT 50NM
30KT 200NM
FORECAST
24HF 181500UTC 13.9N 125.2E 80NM 70%
MOVE W 09KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
45HF 191200UTC 14.1N 122.1E 150NM 70%
MOVE W 09KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
69HF 201200UTC 14.3N 117.3E 220NM 70%
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT =
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 38
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
WTPN31 PGTW 172100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 24W (BOLAVEN) WARNING NR 018
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
171800Z --- NEAR 13.6N 129.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.6N 129.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 13.7N 128.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 13.9N 126.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 14.2N 124.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 14.5N 122.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 14.8N 120.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 14.9N 116.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 14.5N 113.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
---
REMARKS:
172100Z POSITION NEAR 13.6N 129.2E.
TYPHOON (TY) 24W (BOLAVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 490 NM EAST OF
MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY HAS SHOWN THAT THE LOCATION
OF TY 24W IS EAST OF THE PREVIOUS WARNING. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 171800Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 180300Z, 180900Z,
181500Z AND 182100Z.//
BOLAVEN weakens to 70 knots.
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 24W (BOLAVEN) WARNING NR 018
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
171800Z --- NEAR 13.6N 129.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.6N 129.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 13.7N 128.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 13.9N 126.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 14.2N 124.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 14.5N 122.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 14.8N 120.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 14.9N 116.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 14.5N 113.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
---
REMARKS:
172100Z POSITION NEAR 13.6N 129.2E.
TYPHOON (TY) 24W (BOLAVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 490 NM EAST OF
MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY HAS SHOWN THAT THE LOCATION
OF TY 24W IS EAST OF THE PREVIOUS WARNING. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 171800Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 180300Z, 180900Z,
181500Z AND 182100Z.//
BOLAVEN weakens to 70 knots.
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 38
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
WTPN31 PGTW 180300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 24W (BOLAVEN) WARNING NR 019
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
180000Z --- NEAR 13.8N 129.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.8N 129.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 14.1N 128.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 14.5N 126.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 14.9N 124.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 15.2N 122.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 15.6N 120.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 15.8N 118.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 15.7N 116.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
---
REMARKS:
180300Z POSITION NEAR 13.9N 128.9E.
TYPHOON (TY) 24W (BOLAVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 475 NM
EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT
04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 180000Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 180900Z,
181500Z, 182100Z AND 190300Z.//
Continues to weaken, now down to 65 knots.
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 24W (BOLAVEN) WARNING NR 019
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
180000Z --- NEAR 13.8N 129.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.8N 129.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 14.1N 128.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 14.5N 126.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 14.9N 124.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 15.2N 122.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 15.6N 120.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 15.8N 118.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 15.7N 116.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
---
REMARKS:
180300Z POSITION NEAR 13.9N 128.9E.
TYPHOON (TY) 24W (BOLAVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 475 NM
EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT
04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 180000Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 180900Z,
181500Z, 182100Z AND 190300Z.//
Continues to weaken, now down to 65 knots.
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P.K.
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 5149
- Joined: Thu Sep 23, 2004 5:57 pm
- Location: Watford, England
- Contact:
No longer forecast to become a typhoon.
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 0523 BOLAVEN (0523)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 180600UTC 14.3N 128.6E FAIR
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
50KT 50NM
30KT 200NM
FORECAST
24HF 190600UTC 14.8N 125.4E 80NM 70%
MOVE W 07KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
48HF 200600UTC 15.5N 121.8E 150NM 70%
MOVE W 08KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
72HF 210600UTC 16.4N 119.1E 220NM 70%
MOVE W 06KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 0523 BOLAVEN (0523)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 180600UTC 14.3N 128.6E FAIR
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
50KT 50NM
30KT 200NM
FORECAST
24HF 190600UTC 14.8N 125.4E 80NM 70%
MOVE W 07KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
48HF 200600UTC 15.5N 121.8E 150NM 70%
MOVE W 08KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
72HF 210600UTC 16.4N 119.1E 220NM 70%
MOVE W 06KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 38
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
WTPN31 PGTW 181500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 24W (BOLAVEN) WARNING NR 021
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
181200Z --- NEAR 14.9N 127.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.9N 127.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 15.7N 125.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 16.4N 123.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 16.9N 122.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 17.5N 121.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 17.9N 119.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 17.9N 117.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 17.6N 115.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
---
REMARKS:
181500Z POSITION NEAR 15.1N 126.8E.
TYPHOON (TY) 24W (BOLAVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 370 NM EAST OF
MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181200Z
IS 27 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 182100Z, 190300Z, 190900Z AND 191500Z.//
NNNN
The greatest danger now shifts to central Luzon, instead of central Philippines. Because of that, the danger for mudslides and flooding increases do to Luzon's inhospitable terrain.
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 24W (BOLAVEN) WARNING NR 021
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
181200Z --- NEAR 14.9N 127.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.9N 127.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 15.7N 125.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 16.4N 123.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 16.9N 122.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 17.5N 121.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 17.9N 119.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 17.9N 117.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 17.6N 115.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
---
REMARKS:
181500Z POSITION NEAR 15.1N 126.8E.
TYPHOON (TY) 24W (BOLAVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 370 NM EAST OF
MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181200Z
IS 27 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 182100Z, 190300Z, 190900Z AND 191500Z.//
NNNN
The greatest danger now shifts to central Luzon, instead of central Philippines. Because of that, the danger for mudslides and flooding increases do to Luzon's inhospitable terrain.
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P.K.
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 5149
- Joined: Thu Sep 23, 2004 5:57 pm
- Location: Watford, England
- Contact:
Latest forecast track
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 0523 BOLAVEN (0523)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 181200UTC 14.9N 127.6E FAIR
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
50KT 50NM
30KT 200NM
FORECAST
24HF 191200UTC 15.5N 124.7E 80NM 70%
MOVE W 07KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
48HF 201200UTC 16.2N 121.8E 150NM 70%
MOVE W 07KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
72HF 211200UTC 16.6N 118.8E 220NM 70%
MOVE W 07KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 0523 BOLAVEN (0523)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 181200UTC 14.9N 127.6E FAIR
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
50KT 50NM
30KT 200NM
FORECAST
24HF 191200UTC 15.5N 124.7E 80NM 70%
MOVE W 07KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
48HF 201200UTC 16.2N 121.8E 150NM 70%
MOVE W 07KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
72HF 211200UTC 16.6N 118.8E 220NM 70%
MOVE W 07KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 38
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
WTPN31 PGTW 182100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 24W (BOLAVEN) WARNING NR 022
DOWNGRADED FROM TYPHOON 24W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
181800Z --- NEAR 15.2N 126.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.2N 126.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 15.8N 124.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 16.5N 123.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 17.0N 122.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 17.6N 121.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 18.2N 120.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 19.3N 118.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 20.6N 117.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
182100Z POSITION NEAR 15.4N 126.0E.TROPICAL STORM (TS) 24W
(BOLAVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 320 NM EAST OF MANILA,
PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS PARTIALLY
EXPOSED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE UPPER LEVEL DEEP CONVECTION. TS
24W IS TRACKING INTO AN INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT.
THIS FORECAST REPRESENTS A DEVIATION IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD FROM
PREVIOUS FORECASTS. THE SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT AND DYNAMICAL MODELS
ARE INDICATING THE POSSIBILITY OF A MORE POLEWARD TRACK OF TS 24W
IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD AFTER TS 24W TRACKS OVER NORTHERN LUZON.
AN INCREASED NUMBER OF DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO INDICATE
REDUCED WESTWARD BUILDING OF THE STEERING RIDGE BEYOND TAU 72 AND
AN INCREASED POSSIBILITY THAT TS 24W MAY GET ABSORBED INTO THE
MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES OVER THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181800Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 190300Z, 190900Z, 191500Z AND 192100Z.//
NNNN
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 24W (BOLAVEN) WARNING NR 022
DOWNGRADED FROM TYPHOON 24W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
181800Z --- NEAR 15.2N 126.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.2N 126.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 15.8N 124.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 16.5N 123.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 17.0N 122.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 17.6N 121.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 18.2N 120.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 19.3N 118.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 20.6N 117.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
182100Z POSITION NEAR 15.4N 126.0E.TROPICAL STORM (TS) 24W
(BOLAVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 320 NM EAST OF MANILA,
PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS PARTIALLY
EXPOSED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE UPPER LEVEL DEEP CONVECTION. TS
24W IS TRACKING INTO AN INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT.
THIS FORECAST REPRESENTS A DEVIATION IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD FROM
PREVIOUS FORECASTS. THE SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT AND DYNAMICAL MODELS
ARE INDICATING THE POSSIBILITY OF A MORE POLEWARD TRACK OF TS 24W
IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD AFTER TS 24W TRACKS OVER NORTHERN LUZON.
AN INCREASED NUMBER OF DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO INDICATE
REDUCED WESTWARD BUILDING OF THE STEERING RIDGE BEYOND TAU 72 AND
AN INCREASED POSSIBILITY THAT TS 24W MAY GET ABSORBED INTO THE
MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES OVER THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181800Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 190300Z, 190900Z, 191500Z AND 192100Z.//
NNNN
0 likes
-
HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 38
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
WTPN31 PGTW 190300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 24W (BOLAVEN) WARNING NR 023
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
190000Z --- NEAR 15.4N 125.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.4N 125.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 15.7N 123.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 16.3N 122.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 17.3N 121.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 18.2N 121.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 19.3N 120.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 20.7N 121.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 22.1N 124.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
190300Z POSITION NEAR 15.5N 124.7E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 24W (BOLAVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 240 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
REMAINS PARTIALLY EXPOSED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE UPPER LEVEL DEEP
CONVECTION. THIS FORECAST REPRESENTS A DEVIATION FROM PREVIOUS
FORECASTS AND INDICATES RECURVATURE OF TS 24W INTO THE LUZON
STRAIT IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 190000Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 190900Z, 191500Z,
192100Z AND 200300Z.//
NNNN
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 24W (BOLAVEN) WARNING NR 023
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
190000Z --- NEAR 15.4N 125.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.4N 125.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 15.7N 123.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 16.3N 122.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 17.3N 121.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 18.2N 121.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 19.3N 120.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 20.7N 121.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 22.1N 124.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
190300Z POSITION NEAR 15.5N 124.7E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 24W (BOLAVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 240 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
REMAINS PARTIALLY EXPOSED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE UPPER LEVEL DEEP
CONVECTION. THIS FORECAST REPRESENTS A DEVIATION FROM PREVIOUS
FORECASTS AND INDICATES RECURVATURE OF TS 24W INTO THE LUZON
STRAIT IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 190000Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 190900Z, 191500Z,
192100Z AND 200300Z.//
NNNN
0 likes
-
P.K.
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 5149
- Joined: Thu Sep 23, 2004 5:57 pm
- Location: Watford, England
- Contact:
WTPQ20 RJTD 190600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 0523 BOLAVEN (0523)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 190600UTC 15.5N 124.6E FAIR
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
50KT 40NM
30KT 180NM
FORECAST
24HF 200600UTC 16.3N 122.3E 80NM 70%
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
48HF 210600UTC 17.1N 119.8E 150NM 70%
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
72HF 220600UTC 17.0N 117.4E 220NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 0523 BOLAVEN (0523)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 190600UTC 15.5N 124.6E FAIR
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
50KT 40NM
30KT 180NM
FORECAST
24HF 200600UTC 16.3N 122.3E 80NM 70%
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
48HF 210600UTC 17.1N 119.8E 150NM 70%
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
72HF 220600UTC 17.0N 117.4E 220NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =
0 likes
-
HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 38
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
WTPN31 PGTW 191500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 24W (BOLAVEN) WARNING NR 025
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
191200Z --- NEAR 16.5N 123.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 16.5N 123.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 17.5N 122.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 18.4N 121.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 19.3N 121.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 20.3N 122.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 22.9N 128.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 25.9N 136.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
191500Z POSITION NEAR 16.8N 123.3E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 24W (BOLAVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 185 NM
NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
191200Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 192100Z, 200300Z, 200900Z
AND 201500Z.//
NNNN
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 24W (BOLAVEN) WARNING NR 025
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
191200Z --- NEAR 16.5N 123.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 16.5N 123.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 17.5N 122.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 18.4N 121.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 19.3N 121.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 20.3N 122.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 22.9N 128.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 25.9N 136.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
191500Z POSITION NEAR 16.8N 123.3E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 24W (BOLAVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 185 NM
NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
191200Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 192100Z, 200300Z, 200900Z
AND 201500Z.//
NNNN
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 38
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
WTPN31 PGTW 200300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 24W (BOLAVEN) WARNING NR 027
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
200000Z --- NEAR 16.9N 122.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 16.9N 122.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 17.7N 122.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 18.9N 122.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 20.3N 123.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 21.9N 125.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 24.8N 132.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
200300Z POSITION NEAR 17.1N 122.8E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 24W (BOLAVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 170
NM NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD
AT 06 KNOTS AND CONTINUED TO WEAKEN OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200000Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 200900Z, 201500Z, 202100Z AND 210300Z.//
NNNN
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 24W (BOLAVEN) WARNING NR 027
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
200000Z --- NEAR 16.9N 122.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 16.9N 122.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 17.7N 122.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 18.9N 122.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 20.3N 123.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 21.9N 125.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 24.8N 132.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
200300Z POSITION NEAR 17.1N 122.8E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 24W (BOLAVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 170
NM NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD
AT 06 KNOTS AND CONTINUED TO WEAKEN OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200000Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 200900Z, 201500Z, 202100Z AND 210300Z.//
NNNN
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Aslkahuna
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 4550
- Joined: Thu Feb 06, 2003 5:00 pm
- Location: Tucson, AZ
- Contact:
NE Monsoonal air from the north of Bolaven has wrapped into the storm. This air is typically a bit cooler and significantly drier than the tropical air found south of the monsoonal boundary. Furthermore and more inportantly, it is very strongly capped and is very stable so there's no way for the storm to develop deep convection though it is developing low topped convection and stratiform rain. Aparri in the north coast of Luzon has reported 10 minute winds of around 25-30 mph but rainfall generally appears light.
Steve
Steve
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