TD 27 Advisories=Last Advisorie

[Brent]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-SEVEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL272005
0300Z TUE NOV 15 2005

INTERESTS THROUGHOUT THE CARIBBEAN SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 65.3W AT 15/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 65.3W AT 15/0300Z
AT 15/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 64.9W

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 15.0N 66.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 15.3N 68.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 15.5N 70.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 15.5N 72.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 15.5N 76.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 75NE 60SE 45SW 75NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z 15.5N 79.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z 15.5N 81.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.5N 65.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0900Z

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[Brent]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-SEVEN ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM AST MON NOV 14 2005

...POORLY ORGANIZED DEPRESSION CONTINUES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...

INTERESTS THROUGHOUT THE CARIBBEAN SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
TWENTY-SEVEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.5 NORTH... LONGITUDE 65.3
WEST OR ABOUT 275 MILES... 440 KM... SOUTH OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH
...15 KM/HR. A TURN TO THE WEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON TUESDAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.

MOST OF THE RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPRESSION IS OCCURRING IN
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CIRCULATION. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES OVER THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS...AND 1 TO 3 INCHES OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS... PUERTO
RICO... AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 TO
12 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS...THE LEEWARD ISLANDS... PUERTO RICO... AND THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS.

REPEATING THE 11 PM AST POSITION...14.5 N... 65.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 AM AST.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[Brent]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-SEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 PM EST MON NOV 14 2005

THE DEPRESSION REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED THIS EVENING...WITH THE
DEEPEST CONVECTION LOCATED OVER 120 N MI TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
CENTER...WHICH WAS DEPICTED NICELY IN AN SSMIS OVERPASS AT 0043Z.
DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 2.0...30 KT...AND SHIP V7CY9
REPORTED 29 KT NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER AT 20Z. BASED ON THESE
DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/8. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE
BASIC FORECAST THINKING. A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED EAST OF
FLORIDA IS EXPECTED TO KEEP THE CYCLONE ON A MOSTLY WESTWARD TRACK
THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AFTER ABOUT 72
HOURS...HOWEVER...THIS RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN BY THE GLOBAL
MODELS AND THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A SLOWING OF THE FORWARD SPEED
LATE IN THE PERIOD. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD AMONG THE BAM
MODELS...REFLECTING THE WESTERLY SHEAR THAT CURRENTLY DOMINATES THE
CARIBBEAN...AND THE FORWARD SPEED OF THE CYCLONE WILL BE DETERMINED
IN PART BY HOW MUCH CONVECTION IS MAINTAINED NEAR THE CENTER. AT
THE MOMENT...THE CENTER IS A SHALLOW FEATURE MOVING WITH THE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS
TRACK AND IS A BLEND OF THE GFDL AND MEDIUM BAM GUIDANCE.

WATER-VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE WESTERLY SHEAR IS
DECREASING...AND THIS IS ALSO INDICATED BY THE LATEST SHEAR
TENDENCY ANALYSIS FROM UW/CIMSS. INDEED...OVER THE PAST HOUR OR TWO
THERE HAS BEEN SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER.
IF THE DEPRESSION SURVIVES THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO IT SHOULD
THEREFORE HAVE THE OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN. GLOBAL MODELS
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE
WEST-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THAT WOULD PROVIDE A VERY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR STRENGTHENING IN 2-3 DAYS. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE
SHIPS GUIDANCE SHOWS VERY LITTLE DEVELOPMENT AND THE GFS SAYS THE
DEPRESSION WILL DISSIPATE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ASSUMES THAT THE
DEPRESSION WILL SURVIVE THE PRESENTLY UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AND
CONTINUES TO ANTICIPATE THAT THERE WILL BE A HURRICANE IN THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN BY THE END OF THE WEEK.


FORECASTER FRANKLIN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 15/0300Z 14.5N 65.3W 30 KT
12HR VT 15/1200Z 15.0N 66.5W 30 KT
24HR VT 16/0000Z 15.3N 68.3W 35 KT
36HR VT 16/1200Z 15.5N 70.5W 40 KT
48HR VT 17/0000Z 15.5N 72.7W 45 KT
72HR VT 18/0000Z 15.5N 76.5W 50 KT
96HR VT 19/0000Z 15.5N 79.5W 60 KT
120HR VT 20/0000Z 15.5N 81.5W 65 KT

[SouthFloridawx]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 150518
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST TUE NOV 15 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-SEVEN IS CENTERED NEAR 14.5N 65.3W AT
15/0300 UTC OR ABOUT 230 NM S OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO MOVING WNW
AT 8 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40
KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM PRESSURE IS 1004 MB. SEE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 FOR
MORE DETAILS. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION LIES ON THE
EXTREME NW EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION...DUE TO STRONG WESTERLY
FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS. A LARGE CLUSTER OF NUMEROUS STRONG
CONVECTION IS SE OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER FROM 11.5N-13N BETWEEN
62.5W-64.5W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION COVERING
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE 11N62W-15N64.5W.
WITH THE SLOW MOVEMENT AND CONTINUED STRONG CONVECTION...HEAVY
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE WINDWARD/S MOST
LEEWARD ISLANDS FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HRS.

[JamesFromMaine2]

000
WTNT32 KNHC 150831
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-SEVEN ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM AST TUE NOV 15 2005

...DEPRESSION REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED...

INTERESTS THROUGHOUT THE CARIBBEAN SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-SEVEN
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.6 NORTH... LONGITUDE 66.4 WEST OR
ABOUT 265 MILES... 425 KM... SOUTH OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH
...19 KM/HR...AND A TURN TOWARD THE WEST IS EXPECTED TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. SOME INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS POSSIBLE DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.

MOST OF THE RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPRESSION IS OCCURRING IN
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CIRCULATION. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES OVER THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS...AND 1 TO 3 INCHES OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS... PUERTO
RICO... AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12
INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN AREAS OF THE
WINDWARD AND SOUTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. THIS COULD LEAD TO
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

REPEATING THE 5 AM AST POSITION...14.6 N... 66.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 35
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 AM AST.

FORECASTER PASCH

$$



000
WTNT42 KNHC 150832
TCDAT2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-SEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 AM EST TUE NOV 15 2005

THUS FAR...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS FAILED TO BECOME ANY BETTER
ORGANIZED. MOST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION IS LOCATED EAST AND
SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER AND THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN IS
RAGGED AND AMORPHOUS. SOME DECREASE IN VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST
AS GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SHOW AN UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC ANTICYCLONE
BUILDING OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THIS
RELAXATION OF SHEAR SHOULD ALLOW SOME STRENGTHENING TO BEGIN. THE
OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND
SHOWS THE SYSTEM BECOMING A HURRICANE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN.
HOWEVER...GLOBAL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE SHEAR COULD AGAIN
INCREASE LATE IN THE PERIOD AS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE MOVES WEST OF
THE AXIS OF THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE
GFDL INTENSITY FORECASTS HAVE BEEN TRENDING DOWNWARD IN THE LAST
SEVERAL RUNS...AND THE SHIPS MODEL RUNS OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS HAVE
NOT BEEN FORECASTING THE SYSTEM TO BECOME A HURRICANE. ONE SHOULD
ALSO BEAR IN MIND THAT OBJECTIVE OR SUBJECTIVE INTENSITY FORECASTS
AT 4-5 DAYS HAVE LITTLE...IF ANY...SKILL.

BASED ON MULTI-CHANNEL INFRARED AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY...THE
POORLY-DEFINED LOW-CLOUD CENTER IS MOVING A LITTLE FASTER AND JUST
SLIGHTLY NORTH OF WEST...285/10. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN SITUATED TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS...WHICH SHOULD MAINTAIN A MOSTLY WESTWARD TRACK FOR A
WHILE. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE
PREVIOUS ONE BUT SLOWER THAN THE GFDL AND THE DYNAMICAL CONSENSUS
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE
SHOWS THE RIDGE WEAKENING IN 3-4 DAYS...SO THE FORWARD SPEED IS
LIKELY TO SLOW IN THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. BY DAY
5...THE MODELS SHOW THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH ESSENTIALLY OBLITERATED
AS A LARGE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH BEGINS TO DROP INTO THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES. THIS SHOULD CAUSE SOME NORTHWARD COMPONENT OF
MOTION LATE IN THE PERIOD...BUT GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES AT THIS
TIME THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST ONLY HINTS AT A NORTHWARD TURN.

FORECASTER PASCH

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 15/0900Z 14.6N 66.4W 30 KT
12HR VT 15/1800Z 14.8N 67.8W 30 KT
24HR VT 16/0600Z 15.0N 69.8W 35 KT
36HR VT 16/1800Z 15.2N 71.8W 40 KT
48HR VT 17/0600Z 15.3N 74.0W 45 KT
72HR VT 18/0600Z 15.5N 78.0W 55 KT
96HR VT 19/0600Z 15.5N 80.5W 65 KT
120HR VT 20/0600Z 16.0N 81.5W 65 KT


$$

[cycloneye]

643
WTNT22 KNHC 151450
TCMAT2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-SEVEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL272005
1500Z TUE NOV 15 2005

INTERESTS THROUGHOUT THE CARIBBEAN SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 67.5W AT 15/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 67.5W AT 15/1500Z
AT 15/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 67.0W

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 14.3N 69.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 14.5N 71.1W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 14.7N 73.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 14.8N 75.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 15.0N 79.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 75NE 45SE 45SW 75NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 15.0N 81.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 15.5N 81.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.2N 67.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/2100Z

FORECASTER KNABB

[Brent]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-SEVEN ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM AST TUE NOV 15 2005

...DEPRESSION STILL POORLY ORGANIZED AS IT MOVES WESTWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...

INTERESTS THROUGHOUT THE CARIBBEAN SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
TWENTY-SEVEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.2 NORTH... LONGITUDE 67.5
WEST OR ABOUT 305 MILES... 490 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAN JUAN
PUERTO RICO.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH... 19 KM/HR...
AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR... WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS ON ITS WAY TO THE
DEPRESSION AND WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL DATA ON THE INTENSITY THIS
AFTERNOON.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.

THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 3 TO 6 INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS... NORTHERN VENEZUELA... AND POSSIBLY OVER
ARUBA... BONAIRE... AND CURACAO.

REPEATING THE 11 AM AST POSITION...14.2 N... 67.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
5 PM AST.

FORECASTER KNABB

[cycloneye]

WTNT42 KNHC 151459
TCDAT2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-SEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 AM EST TUE NOV 15 2005

THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS OF INFRARED AND VISIBLE IMAGES INDICATE THAT
THE CIRCULATION CENTER HAS BEEN MOVING NEARLY DUE WESTWARD AT ABOUT
10 KT... AS A SHALLOW SYSTEM EMBEDDED IN THE LOW LEVEL EASTERLIES.
CONVECTION NEAR AND EAST OF THE CENTER HAS BEEN INTERMITTENT SINCE
ABOUT 06Z... AND MORE RECENTLY A LIMITED AMOUNT OF CONVECTION HAS
BEEN FORMING NORTH OF THE CENTER. 12Z DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
VARY FROM 30 TO 35 KT DEPENDING ON THE CENTER LOCATION... BUT GIVEN
THE LACK OF ORGANIZATION OF THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN SINCE THEN...
THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED AT 30 KT. THIS IS ALSO
CONSISTENT WITH AN ESTIMATE OF 30 KT AND 1005 MB FROM AN EARLIER
AMSU OVERPASS AT ABOUT 07Z... AND WITH A QUIKSCAT OVERPASS AT ABOUT
1030Z. AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL BE IN THE SYSTEM
THIS AFTERNOON.

THE TRACK FORECAST IS RELATIVELY STRAIGHTFORWARD THROUGH ABOUT 72
HOURS... AS A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO PERSIST OVER
THE EXTREME WESTERN ATLANTIC AND CONTINUE TO DRIVE THE CYCLONE
WESTWARD. ALL OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST THIS RIDGE TO BREAK
DOWN BY DAYS 4 AND 5... WHICH WILL SLOW DOWN THE CYCLONE...
ALTHOUGH IT COULD START EDGING NORTHWARD DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH OF A
TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO BY THAT TIME. WHILE THE
DETAILS IN THE VARIOUS MODEL TRACKS VARY... THEY ALL SHOW VERY SLOW
MOTION NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD... AS DOES THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST. THIS WOULD KEEP THE CYCLONE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA
THROUGHOUT THE FIVE DAY PERIOD.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. THE WESTERLY SHEAR
OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA APPEARS TO GRADUALLY BE ON THE
DECLINE... AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THE UPPER-LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE THAT HAS BEEN FORECAST BY THE DYNAMICAL MODELS TO
DEVELOP OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IS STARTING TO MATERIALIZE.
AS THE DEPRESSION CONTINUES WESTWARD... THE SHEAR SHOULD DECREASE
AND... COMBINED WITH THE WARM WATERS OF ABOUT 29C... PROVIDE AN
ENVIRONMENT MORE CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING. IF THE DEPRESSION CAN
SURVIVE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO... IT COULD THEREAFTER STRENGTHEN
INTO A TROPICAL STORM AS FORECAST BY THE SHIPS MODEL. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST FOR NOW REMAINS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY IN
FORECASTING LIMITED STRENGTHENING DURING THE FIRST TWO DAYS... WITH
A MORE STEADY INCREASE THEREAFTER.


FORECASTER KNABB


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 15/1500Z 14.2N 67.5W 30 KT
12HR VT 16/0000Z 14.3N 69.0W 30 KT
24HR VT 16/1200Z 14.5N 71.1W 35 KT
36HR VT 17/0000Z 14.7N 73.2W 40 KT
48HR VT 17/1200Z 14.8N 75.3W 45 KT
72HR VT 18/1200Z 15.0N 79.0W 55 KT
96HR VT 19/1200Z 15.0N 81.0W 65 KT
120HR VT 20/1200Z 15.5N 81.5W 65 KT

[Brent]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-SEVEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL272005
2100Z TUE NOV 15 2005

INTERESTS THROUGHOUT THE CARIBBEAN SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 69.0W AT 15/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 69.0W AT 15/2100Z
AT 15/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 68.4W

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 14.9N 70.7W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 15.0N 73.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 15.2N 75.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 15.4N 77.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 15.5N 81.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 75NE 45SE 45SW 75NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z 16.0N 82.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z 16.5N 82.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.8N 69.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0300Z

FORECASTER KNABB

[Brent]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-SEVEN ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM AST TUE NOV 15 2005

...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS DEPRESSION STILL DISORGANIZED...

INTERESTS THROUGHOUT THE CARIBBEAN SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-SEVEN
WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.8 NORTH... LONGITUDE 69.0 WEST OR
ABOUT 265 MILES... 420 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SANTO DOMINGO IN
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 13 MPH... 20 KM/HR...
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR... WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME SLIGHT INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE AIRCRAFT WAS 1006
MB...29.71 INCHES.

THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 3 TO 6 INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS... NORTHERN VENEZUELA... AND POSSIBLY OVER
ARUBA... BONAIRE... AND CURACAO.

REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...14.8 N... 69.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 PM AST.

FORECASTER KNABB

[P.K.]

ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-SEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 PM EST TUE NOV 15 2005

THE AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT CONFIRMS WHAT THE SATELLITE
IMAGERY HAS BEEN INDICATING TODAY... THAT THE DEPRESSION REMAINS
QUITE POORLY ORGANIZED. THE CIRCULATION IS ELONGATED
WEST-SOUTHWEST TO EAST-NORTHEAST... WITH ONLY VERY WEAK WESTERLY
WINDS ON THE SOUTHWESTERN SIDE AND A BROAD AREA OF WEAK WINDS
AROUND THE ESTIMATED CENTER LOCATION. THE LOWEST PRESSURE REPORTED
BY THE AIRCRAFT HAS BEEN 1006 MB. EVEN THOUGH THE CIRCULATION IS A
BIT SLOPPY... SOME DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS CLOSE BY... BUT ONLY ON
THE EASTERN SIDE DUE TO CONTINUING WESTERLY SHEAR. PERHAPS
GENEROUSLY... THE SYSTEM REMAINS A DEPRESSION WITH 30 KT WINDS...
BASED ON FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 41 KT... A FEW SHIP REPORTS OF ABOUT
30 KT IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT... AND DVORAK SATELLITE
ESTIMATES.

THE CIRCULATION CENTER IS MOVING JUST NORTH OF DUE WEST AT ABOUT 11
KT. THE TRACK FORECAST REMAINS RELATIVELY STRAIGHTFORWARD THROUGH
ABOUT 48 HOURS... AS A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO
PERSIST OVER THE EXTREME WESTERN ATLANTIC AND CONTINUE TO DRIVE THE
CYCLONE WESTWARD. AFTER THAT... THERE ARE SEVERAL FACTORS
COMPLICATING THE TRACK FORECAST. DYNAMICAL MODELS AGREE THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN AND CAUSE THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE TO MOVE MORE SLOWLY ON DAYS 3-5. HOWEVER... EACH MODEL
FORECASTS A DIFFERENT EVOLUTION OF THE BROAD LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN... AND EACH SHOWS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES BY THAT TIME... BUT WITH VARYING STRENGTH
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL MOST LIKELY
BECOME EMBEDDED WITHIN WEAK STEERING CURRENTS BETWEEN THESE TWO
FEATURES... ALTHOUGH ONE COULD END UP HAVING MORE INFLUENCE THAN
THE OTHER. MOST OF THE MODELS FAVOR A SLOW NORTHWARD COMPONENT TO
THE MOTION ON DAYS 4 AND 5. THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS
SCENARIO AND IS FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY THROUGH 72
HOURS... THEN SIMILARLY SLOW THEREAFTER.

ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM IS BARELY HANGING ON TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
STATUS... ITS ENVIRONMENT SHOULD GRADUALLY BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE
FOR STRENGTHENING. IF THE CYCLONE SURVIVES THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO
OF CONTINUED WESTERLY SHEAR... THE DEVELOPING UPPER-LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL CREATE A WEAKER
SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR A TROPICAL STORM TO
DEVELOP IN 24-36 HOURS AS SUGGESTED BY THE SHIPS GUIDANCE. SHIPS
PEAKS AT 55 KT IN ABOUT 72 HOURS... WHILE THE GFDL PEAKS AT 77 KT A
LITTLE LATER. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN BETWEEN AND STILL
ANTICIPATES DEVELOPMENT INTO A HURRICANE... ALTHOUGH A WEAKENING
TREND IS NOW INTRODUCED AT THE END OF THE FORECAST IN ANTICIPATION
OF INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IN ADVANCE OF THE TROUGH EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.


FORECASTER KNABB


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 15/2100Z 14.8N 69.0W 30 KT
12HR VT 16/0600Z 14.9N 70.7W 30 KT
24HR VT 16/1800Z 15.0N 73.0W 35 KT
36HR VT 17/0600Z 15.2N 75.2W 40 KT
48HR VT 17/1800Z 15.4N 77.5W 45 KT
72HR VT 18/1800Z 15.5N 81.0W 55 KT
96HR VT 19/1800Z 16.0N 82.0W 65 KT
120HR VT 20/1800Z 16.5N 82.5W 60 KT

[cycloneye]

WTNT22 KNHC 160232
TCMAT2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-SEVEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL272005
0300Z WED NOV 16 2005


TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 70.2W AT 16/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 70.2W AT 16/0300Z
AT 16/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 69.6W

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 15.0N 72.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 15.1N 74.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 15.3N 76.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 15.5N 78.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 15.5N 81.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 75NE 50SE 50SW 75NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z 16.0N 81.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z 16.5N 81.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.9N 70.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0900Z

FORECASTER FRANKLIN


NHC drops the forecast to be a hurricane.

[SouthFloridawx]

ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-SEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 PM EST TUE NOV 15 2005

IT IS IMPOSSIBLE TO LOCATE THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION WITH
CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY...SO THE ADVISORY POSITION AND
MOTION ARE BASED ON CONTINUITY OF THE EARLIER TRACK. AN SSMIS
MICROWAVE PASS AT 0030Z HINTS THAT THE CENTER MAY BE RACING MORE
QUICKLY AWAY FROM THE CONVECTION THOUGH...AND IF THIS IS THE CASE
THEN THE DEPRESSION IS ON A FAST TRACK TO DISSIPATION. QUIKSCAT
AMBIGUITIES JUST IN A FEW MOMENTS AGO ALLOW FOR THE POSSIBILITY
THAT A CIRCULATION IS STILL PRESENT...BUT JUST BARELY. THE
CONSENSUS OF THE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAINS BELOW TROPICAL
STORM STRENGTH...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 30 KT FOR
THIS ADVISORY. SHEAR ANALYSES FROM THE GFS AND UW/CIMSS INDICATE
THERE IS STILL ABOUT 25 KT OF WESTERLY SHEAR OVER THE
DEPRESSION...AND IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT THE CIRCULATION WILL
DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...SHOULD IT
SURVIVE...THE DEPRESSION WILL FIND ITSELF UNDER AN UPPER-LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN. THERE IS BETTER
AGREEMENT NOW BETWEEN THE SHIPS AND GFDL INTENSITY
GUIDANCE...ALTHOUGH NEITHER MODEL NOW BRINGS THE SYSTEM TO
HURRICANE STRENGTH. NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...
INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH A MAJOR TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO SWEEP INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING WESTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF LOW- TO MID-LEVEL
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...AND THIS
PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS.
AFTER THAT...STEERING CURRENTS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN WITH THE
APRROACH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH...AND MUCH OF THE MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE CYCLONE WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHWARD OR
EVEN NORTHEASTWARD BY DAY 5. A COMPLICATION IS THE BROAD AND
PERSISTENT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN. IF
THIS LOW BECOMES THE DOMINANT CIRCULATION...THE DEPRESSION OR ITS
REMNANTS WOULD LIKELY CONTINUE WESTWARD INTO CENTRAL AMERICA. THIS
IS THE SOLUTION OFFERED BY THE GFS...WHICH HAS NEVER THOUGHT HIGHLY
OF THE DEPRESSION AND SO FAR HAS BEEN RIGHT. HOWEVER...THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL PRESUME THAT THE DEPRESSION SURVIVES AND IS
A DEEP ENOUGH SYSTEM BY DAY 4 TO FEEL THE EFFECTS OF THE TROUGH IN
THE GULF.


FORECASTER FRANKLIN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 16/0300Z 14.9N 70.2W 30 KT
12HR VT 16/1200Z 15.0N 72.0W 30 KT
24HR VT 17/0000Z 15.1N 74.2W 35 KT
36HR VT 17/1200Z 15.3N 76.5W 40 KT
48HR VT 18/0000Z 15.5N 78.5W 50 KT
72HR VT 19/0000Z 15.5N 81.0W 55 KT
96HR VT 20/0000Z 16.0N 81.5W 60 KT
120HR VT 21/0000Z 16.5N 81.5W 55 KT


$$
NNNN

[P.K.]

WTNT42 KNHC 160830
TCDAT2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-SEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 AM EST WED NOV 16 2005

THERE IS NO REAL EVIDENCE THAT A SURFACE CENTER STILL EXISTS. NO
WESTERLY COMPONENT OF LOW CLOUD MOTION CAN BE DISCERNED ON
NIGHTTIME INFRARED CHANNEL IMAGES...AND AN EARLIER QUIKSCAT
AMBIGUITY PLOT WAS NOT AT ALL CONVINCING. WE WILL WAIT FOR VISIBLE
IMAGERY AND ADDITIONAL DATA TO CONFIRM THAT THE DEPRESSION HAS
DISSIPATED. IT APPEARS THAT THE DEPRESSION...OR ITS REMNANT...IS
ABOUT TO BE DRAWN INTO A MORE DOMINANT LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. INDEED...THIS LATTER SYSTEM IS THE
MORE IMPRESSIVE-LOOKING FEATURE AT THIS TIME. ADDITIONALLY...THE
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST CARIBBEAN DISTURBANCE MAY
DISRUPT THE SMALLER AND WEAKER UPPER ANTICYCLONE UNDER WHICH THE
DEPRESSION WAS EXPECTED TO MOVE. IF THIS IS THE CASE...THEN THE
UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WOULD NOT BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR
INTENSIFICATION...OR REGENERATION.

SATELLITE FIXES ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE...WHICH IS NOT SURPRISING
GIVEN THE SEEMING ABSENCE OF A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. INITIAL
MOTION IS BASED ON CONTINUITY FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
EASTERLIES TO THE SOUTH OF A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD CONTINUE TO
PUSH THE DEPRESSION OR ITS REMNANTS WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT DAY OR
SO. THE REMNANTS ARE LIKELY TO BECOME ABSORBED INTO THE BROAD LOW
PRESSURE AREA OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.

FORECASTER PASCH

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 16/0900Z 14.8N 71.4W 25 KT
12HR VT 16/1800Z 14.8N 73.2W 25 KT
24HR VT 17/0600Z 14.8N 75.2W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
36HR VT 17/1800Z...DISSIPATED

-------------------------------------------------------------

WTNT32 KNHC 160829
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-SEVEN ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 AM EST WED NOV 16 2005

...POORLY-DEFINED DEPRESSION CONTINUES WESTWARD OVER THE
CARIBBEAN...APPEARS LIKELY TO DISSIPATE SOON...

AT 4 AM EST...0900Z...THE ILL-DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
TWENTY-SEVEN WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.8 NORTH...
LONGITUDE 71.4 WEST OR ABOUT 275 MILES... 440 KM...
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SANTO DOMINGO IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH ...22
KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH... 45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION MAY NO LONGER HAVE A CLOSED CIRCULATION...
AND...IF THIS IS CONFIRMED LATER TODAY...ADVISORIES WILL BE
DISCONTINUED.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 4 AM EST POSITION...14.8 N... 71.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 30 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
10 AM EST.

FORECASTER PASCH

--------------------------------------------------

WTNT22 KNHC 160829
TCMAT2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-SEVEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL272005
0900Z WED NOV 16 2005

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 71.4W AT 16/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 90 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 71.4W AT 16/0900Z
AT 16/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 70.8W

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 14.8N 73.2W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 14.8N 75.2W...DISSIPATING
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.8N 71.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/1500Z

FORECASTER PASCH

[cycloneye]

374
WTNT32 KNHC 161431
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-SEVEN ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 AM EST WED NOV 16 2005

...MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE DEPRESSION HAS LOST ITS
CLOSED CIRCULATION...

AT 10 AM EST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TWENTY-SEVEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.7 NORTH...
LONGITUDE 73.8 WEST OR ABOUT 370 MILES... 595 KM...SOUTHWEST OF
SANTO DOMINGO IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND ABOUT 305 MILES...
485 KM...SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA.

THE SYSTEM IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR... AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH... 45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS...IN SQUALLS MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE REMNANTS OF THE
CENTER. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE ABSORBED INTO A LARGE LOW
PRESSURE AREA OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 10 AM EST POSITION...14.7 N... 73.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 17 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 30 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB.

THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. IT WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF
REGENERATION.

FORECASTER BEVEN


Last Advisorie.Rest in Peace.

[cycloneye]

875
WTNT42 KNHC 161432
TCDAT2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-SEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 AM EST WED NOV 16 2005

MORNING VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-SEVEN
HAS LOST ITS CLOSED CIRCULATION. THE REMNANT VORTICITY MAXIMUM IS
MOVING 270/15...AND SHOULD CONTINUE THIS GENERAL MOTION FOR ANOTHER
12-24 HR BEFORE BEING ABSORBED BY A MUCH LARGER...AND DEVELOPING...
LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.

THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER. WHILE THE SYSTEM WILL BE MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF
REGENRATION...THAT DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY AT THIS TIME.

FORECASTER BEVEN

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 16/1500Z 14.7N 73.8W 25 KT
12HR VT 17/0000Z...ABSORBED BY LARGER LOW



Rest in Peace.

[HURAKAN]

BYE!!!! SEE YOU THE NEXT TIME WE HAVE 27 DEPRESSIONS.

[P.K.]

BYE!!!! SEE YOU THE NEXT TIME WE HAVE 27 DEPRESSIONS.

Ever think you would be saying that?

[Brent]

BYE!!!! SEE YOU THE NEXT TIME WE HAVE 27 DEPRESSIONS.

!!!

[MiamiensisWx]

BYE!!!! SEE YOU THE NEXT TIME WE HAVE 27 DEPRESSIONS.

...and 27 times of panic.

However, depending on how many advisories are issued, I would say 27,000,000,000,000 times of panic.