TD 27,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-SEV (AL272005) ON 20051114 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
051114 1800 051115 0600 051115 1800 051116 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 14.0N 64.1W 14.6N 65.2W 15.1N 66.2W 15.4N 67.3W
BAMM 14.0N 64.1W 14.6N 65.9W 15.1N 67.6W 15.2N 69.4W
A98E 14.0N 64.1W 14.3N 65.5W 14.4N 67.0W 14.3N 68.7W
LBAR 14.0N 64.1W 14.6N 65.2W 15.8N 66.4W 16.8N 67.2W
SHIP 30KTS 31KTS 33KTS 36KTS
DSHP 30KTS 31KTS 33KTS 36KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
051116 1800 051117 1800 051118 1800 051119 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 15.3N 68.4W 14.6N 71.2W 14.7N 73.9W 16.1N 76.7W
BAMM 15.3N 71.4W 15.6N 75.7W 16.4N 79.4W 16.9N 82.3W
A98E 14.3N 70.6W 14.1N 74.1W 14.3N 77.4W 14.8N 80.5W
LBAR 17.1N 67.7W 17.6N 66.1W 17.8N 62.5W 19.9N 56.8W
SHIP 39KTS 49KTS 55KTS 52KTS
DSHP 39KTS 49KTS 55KTS 52KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.0N LONCUR = 64.1W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR = 7KT
LATM12 = 13.6N LONM12 = 62.8W DIRM12 = 296DEG SPDM12 = 7KT
LATM24 = 12.8N LONM24 = 61.4W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM


18:00z BAM Models.

Still TD.

[SouthFloridawx]

Current Intensity Analysis

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED OBJECTIVE DVORAK TECHNIQUE
AODT - Version 6.4.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 14 NOV 2005 Time : 181500 UTC
Lat : 14:01:26 N Lon : 64:01:06 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.0 /1000.0mb/ 45.0kt


Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb

6hr-Avg T# 3hr-Avg T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.8 2.8 2.5 2.5

Eye Temp : +1.3C Cloud Region Temp : -33.7C

Scene Type : CURVED BAND with 0.42 ARC in MD GRAY
Maximum CURVED BAND with 0.44 ARC in MD GRAY
at Lat: 13:13:12 N Lon: 64:00:36 W

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : WEAKEN

****************************************************

Verification

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/odt/odt1.html

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

The LLC is exposed about 75-100 nmi away from the deep convection. It appears the convection has been blow to the east. Also you can notice that the clouds have become flaten on the western side. The convection has become more stream like. It appears shear is increase instead of decreasing like the CIMSS shear maps where showing.

The LLC is also becoming less defined. I think if this trend keeps up then what I said earlier might get me some crow.

[dixiebreeze]

TAFB says TS

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atl ... W.gifGamma within 24 hours:

[SouthFloridawx]

TAFB says TS

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atl ... W.gifGamma within 24 hours:

bad link

[dixiebreeze]

Here you go -- click on the 24 hour surface forecast:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb-atl.shtml

[x-y-no]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-vis-loop.html

The LLC is exposed about 75-100 nmi away from the deep convection. It appears the convection has been blow to the east. Also you can notice that the clouds have become flaten on the western side. The convection has become more stream like. It appears shear is increase instead of decreasing like the CIMSS shear maps where showing.

The LLC is also becoming less defined. I think if this trend keeps up then what I said earlier might get me some crow.

Yeah, but that convection has been sustaining itself very impressively through the day. That could lead to the center re-forming a little closer. Of course, unless the shear dies down, we'll just get another cycle of shearing and weakening like this one.

[SouthFloridawx]

Here you go -- click on the 24 hour surface forecast:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb-atl.shtml

interesting .... I never clicked on that before thanks...

[Hyperstorm]

Unfortunately, just when we were all trying to get ready for our Thanksgiving dinners another one joins the 2005 club.

TD #27 will very likely become Gamma very soon and what I see from the global models is not encouraging. Currently the system is situated under very strong WSW shear. This will prevent a significant increase in strength, although any stronger burst of convection right over the circulation center will cause it to be upgraded to a tropical storm.

After the day Wednesday, the majority of the global models (especially the GFS) are forecasting an upper-level anticyclone over the central and western Caribbean. These are the types of systems I fear the MOST...the ones that are able to evacuate all the air in an instant after being inhibited by strong shear. Why?

Imagine this: You're drowning and running short on oxygen. You're desperately trying to look for a way to breathe, but you're unable due to that inhibiting mechanism. After a while of holding your breath, miraculously you're finally able to get out of the water. Your first reactions are of evacuating all that air out of your system in HUGE quantities and speed.

That's how a hurricane is able to EXPLODE after it is allowed the evacuation of the air that it was holding for such a long time. This is a very dangerous scenario. The first one I think of when I talk about this is Hurricane Claudette in 2003. Of course, many more systems exploded in a similar fashion after being inhibited, including this year's Hurricane Wilma.

That waters south of Jamaica are STILL of extreme heat potential. SSTs are running high in that area as well, so there is no reason to think that if the favorable conditions aloft develop as suggested by the global models, this won't be a major hurricane later this week.

We can all hope there is major weakening before it strikes any land areas as also suggested by a few models.

Hurricane Season 2005 is not over yet...

[SouthFloridawx]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-vis-loop.html

The LLC is exposed about 75-100 nmi away from the deep convection. It appears the convection has been blow to the east. Also you can notice that the clouds have become flaten on the western side. The convection has become more stream like. It appears shear is increase instead of decreasing like the CIMSS shear maps where showing.

The LLC is also becoming less defined. I think if this trend keeps up then what I said earlier might get me some crow.

Yeah, but that convection has been sustaining itself very impressively through the day. That could lead to the center re-forming a little closer. Of course, unless the shear dies down, we'll just get another cycle of shearing and weakening like this one.

Once the upper level trough lifts out we are looking different situation. Fortunately now that it is getting closer to the trough we are looking at TD 27 just being sheared. We'll have to wait and see when that happens.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The quastion is how much of the LLC will make it through the shear. It has at least 24 more hours intill the upper levels become more faverable. Theres a fair chance that there might not be enough of the system left to become anything with the upper level high. We will see...Theres a dagger of death moving west to east in the caribbean...

[SouthFloridawx]

[dixiebreeze]

Here you go -- click on the 24 hour surface forecast:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb-atl.shtml

interesting .... I never clicked on that before thanks...

You're very welcome --

[dixiebreeze]

The deep convection is really hanging in there this afternoon:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... IR4/20.jpg

[sponger]

Agreed Dixie! Persistance has been the theme of 2005.

[weatherwindow]

just a observation on the projected track...altho i am certainly not questioning the NHC 5 day track, i would advise against exptrapolating this westerly motion beyond 120 hours. while november has had its share of anamalous westerly tracks, they certainly are in the minority. as the long wave pattern amplifies thru november, the short wave troughs typically penetrate into the bay of honduras. a slow moving system , at or north of 15deg N and approaching 80deg W could begin to feel southerly/southwesterly steering as it passes 80deg W. i am leaning toward the cmc/nogaps/ukmet solutions and recurvature. of course, timing is everything...and the key to a cuba/fla threat would be the longitude at which the northerly turn begins and the sharpness of the trough and hence the turn...........rich

[Windtalker1]

just a observation on the projected track...altho i am certainly not questioning the NHC 5 day track, i would advise against exptrapolating this westerly motion beyond 120 hours. while november has had its share of anamalous westerly tracks, they certainly are in the minority. as the long wave pattern amplifies thru november, the short wave troughs typically penetrate into the bay of honduras. a slow moving system , at or north of 15deg N and approaching 80deg W could begin to feel southerly/southwesterly steering as it passes 80deg W. i am leaning toward the cmc/nogaps/ukmet solutions and recurvature. of course, timing is everything...and the key to a cuba/fla threat would be the longitude at which the northerly turn begins and the sharpness of the trough and hence the turn...........rich

100% in agreement!

[SouthFloridawx]

W-CIMSS Automated Satellite-Based
Advanced Objective Dvorak Technique (AODT)
Version 6.4.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Estimation Algorithm

Disclaimer | Method Description and Validation | Sponsors


Current Intensity Analysis

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED OBJECTIVE DVORAK TECHNIQUE
AODT - Version 6.4.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 14 NOV 2005 Time : 194500 UTC
Lat : 14:07:28 N Lon : 64:13:02 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.0 /1000.0mb/ 45.0kt


Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb

6hr-Avg T# 3hr-Avg T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.7 2.5 2.8 2.8

Eye Temp : +4.2C Cloud Region Temp : -27.0C

Scene Type : SHEAR (0.36^ TO DG)

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : WEAKEN

****************************************************

[SouthFloridawx]

The center is not as far away from the convection as we thought.

[HURAKAN]

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/rmsd ... PICAL.html

Low level circulation is clearly racing in front of the convection.