Invest 94L,Comments,Sat Pics,Models thread

[mike815]

I think so unfortunitly, not a fish. Way to early though to tell.

[jkt21787]

USA risk at all? J/w?

Matt

I would say extremely unlikely. The gulf and immediate east coast are very hostile now, and with additional troughs expected over the next 7-10 days in the Eastern United States, this would increase the threat of there NOT being a US threat.

The only possible scenario, and this is just a slight chance at this point, is moving up near the east coast and linking up with one of the aforementioned troughs. Not an extremely likely scenario at this point.

[Brent]

I would be VERY surprised if this reaches the U.S. mainland. A major cold front is expected to reach all the way to the coast by mid-week, with one about every 3 days after that.

[JamesFromMaine2]

Latest IR image! Very deep convection has formed!

[floridahurricaneguy]

i thought it was the late season troughs that possbly cause storms to affect gulf and USA

[jkt21787]

i thought it was the late season troughs that possbly cause storms to affect gulf and USA

Yeah, but this late in the season the troughs are pushed well enough south and east to prevent any US threat whatsoever...

[brunota2003]

OK, Who authorized the STDS to be issued without my prior knowledge??? Also, while I'm at it, who gave 94L permission to form into, which he isnt yet since he was just authorized to do so, TD 27??? I'm going to de-mote both of them scume bags... Ok, my rant is over...

[Brent]

i thought it was the late season troughs that possbly cause storms to affect gulf and USA

In September and most of October, the troughs only come far enough south to "pick up" the storm and turn it northward... it's already too far west to completely miss.

In late October/November, the fronts will clear the entire Gulf and Florida, and a hurricane cannot cross that.

[brunota2003]

Well, unfortunetly someone forgot to give her that memo:

And stranger things have happened this year, I'm going to watch this one closely, as NC happens to get hit by quite a few recurving storms...

[mike815]

Very tru! Many storms this year have shown us everything is not clear cut.

[mike815]

Very tru! Many storms this year have shown us everything is not clear cut.

[Brent]

Well, unfortunetly someone forgot to give her that memo:

That looks like there was a ridge over the Western Atlantic and it recurved too late. Not quite the same deal here.

[WindRunner]

Well, unfortunetly someone forgot to give her that memo:

And stranger things have happened this year, I'm going to watch this one closely, as NC happens to get hit by quite a few recurving storms...

Now shift that about 6S, and you have a nightmarish Tampa scenario . . . not saying that will happen here, just a note . . .

[jkt21787]

Well, unfortunetly someone forgot to give her that memo:

And stranger things have happened this year, I'm going to watch this one closely, as NC happens to get hit by quite a few recurving storms...

Well, the upper air pattern over Kate was MUCH different than the one setting up for this potential storm. If the models are right with the current projected pattern shaping up, climatology should easily win with this one...

[brunota2003]

Well, unfortunetly someone forgot to give her that memo:

And stranger things have happened this year, I'm going to watch this one closely, as NC happens to get hit by quite a few recurving storms...

Now shift that about 6S, and you have a nightmarish Tampa scenario . . . not saying that will happen here, just a note . . .

And note that would possibly give me hurricane coniditions if it did hit Tampa...

[mike815]

Im confused then. Looks like the models have this moving wnw for a while. Even some had it bending south of west.

[brunota2003]

Why would climotology win this one??? This late in the season, you know if this thing forms, then this season will try its best to throw climotology out for this storm to...

[jkt21787]

Im confused then. Looks like the models have this moving wnw for a while. Even some had it bending south of west.

Well this storm will be far away from any influence from the troughs over the Eastern US for the next several days, you have to look at the long term pattern once the storm (if it develops) will be in once further west...

[jkt21787]

Why would climotology win this one??? This late in the season, you know if this thing forms, then this season will try its best to throw climotology out for this storm to...

If the trough develops as forecasted, and this system is able to plow right through it (unharmed I might add), than that will be one of the most amazing things I've ever seen...

[HURAKAN]

GAMMA IS ALMOST HERE!

BY THE WAY, IS ME OR GREEK STORMS LIKE THE CARIBBEAN!