Invest 94L,Comments,Sat Pics,Models thread

[Sanibel]

Looks like a go. See if it separates out from that frontal trough first...

[SouthFloridawx]

[SouthFloridawx]

[SouthFloridawx]

[SouthFloridawx]

798

WTNT80 EGRR 130535



MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC



AND ATLANTIC



GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 13.11.2005



NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 12 HOURS

FORECAST POSITION AT T+48 : 14.7N 65.9W



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------



00UTC 15.11.2005 14.7N 65.9W WEAK

12UTC 15.11.2005 14.8N 68.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 16.11.2005 14.7N 70.4W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 16.11.2005 13.9N 71.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 17.11.2005 14.9N 72.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 17.11.2005 13.8N 76.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 18.11.2005 13.7N 78.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 18.11.2005 14.6N 80.0W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 19.11.2005 12.9N 82.0W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY







THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS

AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT





MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK



TOO 130535





[SouthFloridawx]

Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


000
AXNT20 KNHC 130605
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SUN NOV 13 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS IS ALONG 58W S OF
19N MOVING W 5-10 KT. A 1008 MB LOW IS ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR
12N58W. THE LATEST GFS MODEL IS SUGGESTING GRADUAL TROPICAL
DEVELOPMENT FROM THIS WAVE...HOWEVER...THE SYSTEM IS BEING
HAMPERED BY MODERATE UPPER LEVEL WLY SHEAR. THE SYSTEM WILL BE
MONITORED CLOSELY FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF TROPICAL FORMATION OVER
THE NEXT 36 HOURS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS
FROM 10N-15N BETWEEN 54W-59W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN 51W-55W.

[P.K.]

WHXX01 KWBC 130700
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

.....THE FOLLOWING IS A TEST MESSAGE.....

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL942005) ON 20051113 0600 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
051113 0600 051113 1800 051114 0600 051114 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 12.4N 58.3W 12.9N 59.7W 13.6N 61.0W 14.4N 62.0W
BAMM 12.4N 58.3W 13.2N 59.8W 13.9N 61.2W 14.8N 62.3W
A98E 12.4N 58.3W 12.9N 58.5W 13.2N 59.5W 13.2N 60.5W
LBAR 12.4N 58.3W 12.9N 58.9W 13.8N 59.7W 14.8N 60.1W
SHIP 25KTS 29KTS 32KTS 35KTS
DSHP 25KTS 29KTS 32KTS 35KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
051115 0600 051116 0600 051117 0600 051118 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 15.1N 62.7W 16.0N 63.7W 15.4N 64.7W 13.4N 67.2W
BAMM 15.5N 63.2W 16.4N 65.1W 16.1N 68.0W 15.2N 72.0W
A98E 13.4N 61.6W 14.1N 63.8W 13.8N 66.2W 12.3N 69.2W
LBAR 15.8N 60.2W 18.2N 59.3W 19.6N 56.3W 18.8N 50.7W
SHIP 36KTS 35KTS 31KTS 31KTS
DSHP 36KTS 35KTS 31KTS 31KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.4N LONCUR = 58.3W DIRCUR = 330DEG SPDCUR = 4KT
LATM12 = 11.5N LONM12 = 57.3W DIRM12 = 296DEG SPDM12 = 11KT
LATM24 = 10.8N LONM24 = 54.5W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 175NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

.....THE ABOVE HAS BEEN A TEST MESSAGE.....

[P.K.]

ABNT20 KNHC 131030
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EST SUN NOV 13 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A WELL-DEFINED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED ABOUT 85 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BARBADOS. THIS SYSTEM HAS SHOWN SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION OVERNIGHT... BUT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BECOME A
LITTLE LESS CONCENTRATED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS APPEAR SOMEWHAT CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT... AND
IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. WHILE THIS SYSTEM HAS BEEN NEARLY
STATIONARY OVERNIGHT... A SLOW WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. REGARDLESS OF WHETHER OR
NOT A TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS... THIS SYSTEM COULD BRING SOME
GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS TO PORTIONS OF THE WINDWARD AND
LEEWARD ISLANDS LATER TODAY AND ON MONDAY.

ELSEWHERE... TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
MONDAY.

FORECASTER KNABB

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
620 AM AST SUN NOV 13 2005

.DISCUSSION...

THE MAJOR SYNOPTIC FEATURES CONTINUE TO BE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND
ASSOCIATED TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC
SOUTHWARD TO THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
COMING OFF THE EAST COAST OF THE U.S. AND A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED
NEAR 58 WEST. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL START TO BE LESS OF AN
INFLUENCE ON THE REGION AS THE MAIN LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD
THROUGH MONDAY WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE
REGION THEREAFTER. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN AS THE SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES
TO MOVE EASTWARD...THUS MAINTAINING OR SLIGHTLY STRENGTHENING THE
STRONG NORTHEAST FLOW ALREADY AFFECTING THE REGION. LASTLY...THE
TROPICAL WAVE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ON A WEST NORTHWEST TRACK. IT
HAS AN 1007 MB SURFACE LOW ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. THERE IS
MODERATE WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL SHEAR ACROSS THE WAVE AT THE
MOMENT...BUT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE.

ALL OF THESE SYNOPTIC FEATURES WILL COMBINE TODAY THROUGH MONDAY TO
RESULT IN STRONG NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS...WITH
PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS AHEAD OF THE TROPICAL
WAVE AFFECTING THE LOCAL ISLANDS. THE STRONG LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL
HELP TO KEEP RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS LOWER...BUT THUNDERSTORMS AND
BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
THEN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY THE STRONG NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE...BUT AS THE TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHES THE LOCAL
ISLANDS CHANCES OF PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL INCREASE. THE
FORECAST WILL ALSO OBVIOUSLY DEPEND ON THE POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OF
THE TROPICAL WAVE...SO WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE WHAT HAPPENS OVER
THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AND REVISE FORECAST APPROPRIATELY. GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT THE MAIN ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE MAY PASS JUST
TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS...BUT TOO EARLY TO SPECULATE.

&&


AFD San Juan.

caribepr regardless if it develops or not plenty of rain will arrive here from monday so make your preparations at Culebra accordinly.And for all the members who live in the NE caribbean let's watch how it all evolves.

[caribepr]

Thanks, Luis. I'm pretty sure my sailing trip is going to be postponed...or if the capt. goes anyway, I think I'll bag it. It was going to be my one real mini-holiday, it'a all my fault!!! Lo siento!!!!!

[cycloneye]

13/0545 UTC 12.4N 58.2W T1.0/1.0 94 -- Atlantic Ocean

[cycloneye]

[cycloneye]

CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 94L

INITIAL TIME 6Z NOV 13

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 12.3 58.5 330./ 4.1
6 12.7 59.5 291./10.9
12 13.7 60.5 316./13.5
18 13.9 62.0 279./15.3
24 14.6 63.1 300./11.8
30 14.9 63.9 289./ 8.9
36 15.1 64.6 291./ 6.6
42 15.2 65.2 283./ 5.6
48 15.4 65.7 288./ 5.8
54 15.7 66.3 295./ 6.4
60 15.9 66.7 300./ 4.7
66 16.2 66.8 339./ 3.1
72 16.4 67.5 283./ 6.8
78 16.7 67.9 317./ 4.7
84 17.3 68.8 302./10.5
90 17.5 70.3 278./14.5
96 17.2 72.1 260./17.4
102 17.4 73.5 279./13.4
108 17.4 75.0 270./14.4
114 17.2 76.2 261./11.4
120 17.0 77.2 256./10.1
126 16.8 78.1 261./ 9.0



6z GFDL

[P.K.]

Have you looked at the 6am GMT GFDL run yet Luis? Rather a big change from the 12am one which disippated it at the initalisation time. This time it drops to at least 946hPa with 950hPa winds of 121kts.....

[Anonymous]

Have you looked at the 6am GMT GFDL run yet Luis? Rather a big change from the 12am one which disippated it at the initalisation time. This time we it drops to at least 946hPa with 950hPa winds of 121kts.....

GFDL was right with Wilma... you have a link to the new GFDL?

[cycloneye]

Have you looked at the 6am GMT GFDL run yet Luis? Rather a big change from the 12am one which disippated it at the initalisation time. This time we it drops to at least 946hPa with 950hPa winds of 121kts.....

I didn't see the intensity run but until a few minutes ago and I didn't post it as it would cause pandemonium.

[Anonymous]

Link?

[wxman57]

Visible imagery indicates a weak LLC west of the convection near 12.5N/60.5W, about 120 miles west of where the model data were run for. Wind shear remains strong over the system, so probably no TD today unless the center can get back under the convection. Something to watch, though.

[bvigal]

Link?

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/gfd ... 306/3.html

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL942005) ON 20051113 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
051113 1200 051114 0000 051114 1200 051115 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 12.2N 58.5W 12.6N 60.0W 13.5N 61.2W 14.4N 62.1W
BAMM 12.2N 58.5W 12.8N 60.4W 13.6N 62.0W 14.4N 63.1W
A98E 12.2N 58.5W 12.4N 59.3W 12.6N 60.3W 12.9N 61.3W
LBAR 12.2N 58.5W 12.9N 59.4W 14.0N 60.2W 15.2N 60.6W
SHIP 25KTS 29KTS 33KTS 37KTS
DSHP 25KTS 29KTS 33KTS 37KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
051115 1200 051116 1200 051117 1200 051118 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 15.2N 62.7W 16.1N 63.8W 15.5N 64.5W 13.4N 66.0W
BAMM 14.9N 64.2W 15.2N 66.6W 14.3N 69.0W 12.6N 71.7W
A98E 13.4N 62.2W 14.1N 64.4W 14.1N 66.8W 12.9N 69.5W
LBAR 16.4N 60.6W 18.6N 59.3W 18.9N 55.6W 18.5N 49.0W
SHIP 40KTS 42KTS 43KTS 46KTS
DSHP 40KTS 42KTS 43KTS 46KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.2N LONCUR = 58.5W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR = 4KT
LATM12 = 12.1N LONM12 = 58.0W DIRM12 = 309DEG SPDM12 = 6KT
LATM24 = 11.1N LONM24 = 56.1W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 175NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



12:00z models