MESOSCALE DISCUSSION NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2408
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0524 PM CST SAT NOV 12 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MN...WRN WI...ERN IA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 122324Z - 130030Z
   
   A NEW WATCH WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY ACROSS PARTS OF ERN IA...SERN
   MN...AND WRN WI WITHIN THE HOUR.
   
   INTENSE DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF EJECTING UPPER TROUGH
   AND INTENSIFYING SURFACE LOW MAY RESULT IN SEVERE STORMS SPREADING
   NEWD FROM CNTRL IA OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. DESPITE RELATIVELY
   STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS ACROSS THESE AREAS...GPS WATER VAPOR
   INDICATES GREATER MOISTURE STREAMING NWD AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING LOW.
   THIS MOISTURE COUPLED WITH STRONG FORCING AND SHEAR ON THE NOSE OF
   80KT MID LEVEL WIND MAX COULD SUSTAIN ELEVATED STORMS/SUPERCELLS
   WITH A WIND AND HAIL THREAT POSSIBLY TRANSITIONING NEWD ACROSS THE
   MS RIVER OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
   
   ..CARBIN.. 11/12/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX...
   
   42999243 44829322 44819210 44789101 41849028 40679121
   40559166

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2409
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0751 PM CST SAT NOV 12 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OK...SWRN MO AND WRN/CENTRAL AR
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 860...
   
   VALID 130151Z - 130345Z
   
   THREAT FOR SVR STORMS INCLUDING AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO WILL
   CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST A FEW MORE HRS ACROSS WW 860...ERN OK...SWRN
   MO AND WRN AR.
   
   LATEST PROFILER DATA FROM DE QUEEN AR INDICATES VERY STRONG LOW
   LEVEL SHEAR...200-300 MS/S2 OF 0-1 KM SRH...WAS IN PLACE OVER MUCH
   OF WW 860. MODIFIED 00Z SGF AND SHV SOUNDINGS INDICATES AROUND
   1000-1500 J/KG OF MUCAPES REMAIN OVER MUCH OF WW 860. SUFFICIENT
   LIFT AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALONG WITH MODERATE LOW LVL WAA
   SHOULD SUPPORT ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT. CONVECTIVE MODE SHOULD
   CONTINUE TO REMAIN SOMEWHAT DISCRETE GIVEN PRONOUNCED AND STRONG WLY
   COMPONENT OF THE MID LEVEL FLOW AND STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS NOTED ON
   REGIONAL PROFILERS. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TSTM DEVELOP CAN NOT BE
   RULED OUT FOR THE NEXT 1-2 HRS ALONG STATIONARY DRYLINE ACROSS ERN
   OK...ALONG THE WRN EDGE OF WW 860...AS MID LEVEL FORCING CONTINUES
   TO MOVE INTO THE REGION.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 11/13/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LSX...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...
   
   37699454 33629661 33579309 37619102

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2410
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0808 PM CST SAT NOV 12 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME NERN IA...SERN MN...WRN WI
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 859...
   
   VALID 130208Z - 130315Z
   
   BULK OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS SPREAD NORTH OF SURFACE-BASED WARM
   SECTOR INSTABILITY AND WAS POSING A DIMINISHING RISK OF TORNADOES.
   WHILE A MARGINAL HAIL THREAT MAY PERSIST WITH A COUPLE OF STRONGER
   CELLS NEXT HOUR OR SO...MUCH OF TORNADO WATCH 859 WILL LIKELY BE
   CANCELED PRIOR TO EXPIRATION AT 05Z.
   
   ..CARBIN.. 11/13/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...
   
   43329041 42759206 45459366 45579114

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2411
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1011 PM CST SAT NOV 12 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN OK...SRN MO...WRN AR
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 860...
   
   VALID 130411Z - 130545Z
   
   SEVERE THREAT PERSISTS ACROSS PARTS OF TORNADO WATCH 860 LATE THIS
   EVENING.
   
   A COUPLE OF SQUALL LINES WITH EMBEDDED MESOCYCLONES AND COOLING
   CLOUD TOPS HAVE MOVED OFF THE DRYLINE AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO POSE A
   THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. MOIST AIR MASS
   AHEAD OF THIS ACTIVITY FROM SWRN AR NEWD TO SRN MO WAS CONTRIBUTING
   TO MODEST SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY WHICH SHOULD SUSTAIN UPDRAFTS
   ALONG EWD ADVANCING COLD POOLS. MID LEVEL FLOW OF 40-65 KT WAS
   RESULTING IN DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUITABLE FOR CONTINUED STORM
   ORGANIZATION. BREAKS OR CELLS WITHIN TRAILING PORTIONS OF EXISTING
   SQUALL LINES MAY ACQUIRE ROTATION WITH ISOLATED TORNADO STILL
   POSSIBLE GIVEN 0-1KM SRH IN EXCESS OF 300 M2/S2 PER DEQUEEN AR
   PROFILER.
   
   ..CARBIN.. 11/13/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...
   
   33679309 33689623 37679300 37639069

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2412
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1115 PM CST SAT NOV 12 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...AR
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 130515Z - 130645Z
   
   PARTS OF CNTRL AR ON THE ERN EDGE OF TORNADO WATCH 860 COULD
   EXPERIENCE SEVERE WEATHER OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. IF CURRENT
   ACTIVITY MAINTAINS INTENSITY WHILE TRACKING EWD...A NEW WATCH MAY BE
   REQUIRED.
   
   MESOSCALE WARM FRONT APPEARS TO HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL
   AR LAST 1-2 HOURS. STORMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG AND NORTH OF THIS
   BOUNDARY AND HAVE RECENTLY INTENSIFIED. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE
   TO TRACK ACROSS SALINE...PULASKI...AND FAULKNER COUNTIES WITH THE
   THREAT OF HAIL AND POSSIBLY DAMAGING WINDS. VWP FROM LZK WAS
   INDICATING STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR MORE THAN ADEQUATE TO SUSTAIN
   MESOCYCLONES IN EWD TRACKING CELLS. STORM IN SALINE COUNTY HAS
   SUPERCELL STRUCTURE AND WILL NEED TO MONITORED CLOSELY AS IT MOVES
   TOWARD THE WRN PARTS OF LITTLE ROCK OVER THE NEXT HOUR.
   
   ..CARBIN.. 11/13/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LZK...
   
   34989128 34699137 34539243 34409316 34619338 35039253
   35319204 35449149

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2413
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0628 AM CST MON NOV 14 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NERN TX/SERN OK EWD ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO
   NWRN AL
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 141228Z - 141430Z
   
   LIMITED SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY EVOLVE OVER THE NEXT
   COUPLE OF HOURS...THOUGH WW ISSUANCE NOT LIKELY IN THE NEAR TERM.
   
   CONVECTION HAS SHOWN A SLOW/STEADY INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
   INTENSITY THIS MORNING...ABOVE A STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER/WITHIN ZONE
   OF WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF SRN STREAM UPPER FEATURE NOW MOVING ENEWD
   ACROSS TX. 
   
   BOUNDARY LAYER N OF WARM FRONT -- WHICH EXTENDS FROM NERN TX EWD
   ALONG THE AR/LA BORDER INTO NRN MS/NRN AL ATTM -- IS PARTICULARLY
   STABLE...WHICH WOULD LIMIT ANY SEVERE THREAT N OF THIS BOUNDARY TO
   HAIL.  THOUGH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS SUPPORTIVE OF SOME MID-LEVEL
   ROTATION...GENERALLY WEAK INSTABILITY /LESS THAN 1000 J/KG
   MOST-UNSTABLE CAPE/ SUGGESTS THAT HAIL SIZE WOULD LIKELY BE LIMITED
   TO LESS THAN AN INCH OR SO. 
   
   ALONG AND S OF WARM FRONT...BOUNDARY LAYER IS SLIGHTLY LESS
   STABLE...BUT STILL SUFFICIENTLY STABLE ATTM TO PRECLUDE ANY MORE
   THAN A VERY MARGINAL WIND/TORNADO THREAT.  AS DAYTIME HEATING
   COMMENCES...SURFACE-BASED SEVERE THREAT WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT.
   HOWEVER...WITH MAIN FORCING MECHANISM LIMITED TO WARM ADVECTION --
   AND THUS CONFINED MAINLY TO AREAS N OF WARM FRONT...AMOUNT OF
   WARM-SECTOR SURFACE-BASED STORM INITIATION REMAINS UNCLEAR ATTM.  WE
   WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE-BASED/WARM SECTOR
   STORM DEVELOPMENT...AND ASSOCIATED POTENTIAL FOR WW ISSUANCE.
   
   ..GOSS.. 11/14/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...
   
   32419610 34799509 35749380 35478989 34368754 32828759
   31949356

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2414
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1216 PM CST MON NOV 14 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF NRN/CENTRAL CO...SRN WY AND NERN UT ABOVE
   6000 FT
   
   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW AND NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
   
   VALID 141816Z - 142315Z
   
   HVY SNOW WITH HRLY RATES IN CONVECTIVE SNOWBURSTS UP TO 2 INCHES
   WILL DEVELOP SWD ACROSS SRN WY...NERN UT...AND MUCH OF NRN AND
   PORTIONS OF CENTRAL CO DURING THE NEXT 3-4 HRS.
   
   A STRONG COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS CENTRAL WY INTO SERN ID WILL
   MOVE SWD THROUGH SRN WY/NERN UT INTO NRN CO THROUGH THE MID
   AFTERNOON HRS. THE DURATION OF HEAVIEST SNOW WILL LIKELY BE FROM 3-4
   HRS...WHEN STRONG FRONTAL LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT
   OVERLAYS STRONG MID-UPPER LEVEL VERTICAL MOTION ASSOCIATED WITH EXIT
   REGION OF STRONG/DIGGING MID-UPPER JET MAX NOW EVIDENT OVER NRN
   UT/SERN ID. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND RECENT NLDN DATA CONFIRM THREAT
   FOR CONVECTIVE SNOWBURSTS...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY AHEAD
   OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHERE VERTICAL MOTION WILL BE STRONGEST AND
   DEEPEST. STRONG LOW LEVEL WLY FLOW THAT WILL TURN NNWLY WITH FRONTAL
   PASSAGE WILL FAVOR WRN/NRN UPSLOPE REGIONS WITH THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL
   RATES AND AMOUNTS. IN ADDITION THE STRONG WINDS...ESPECIALLY BEHIND
   THE FRONT...WILL SUPPORT NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AT
   TIMES...ESPECIALLY IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE HEAVY SNOW THREAT
   SHOULD DIMINISH OVER SRN WY/NERN UT AND MUCH OF NRN CO AROUND
   00Z...AND OVER CENTRAL CO ROCKIES BY 03Z...AS STRONG MID LEVEL
   DRYING/SUBSIDENCE OCCURS IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
   PASSAGE.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 11/14/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...PUB...BOU...CYS...RIW...GJT...SLC...
   
   42380618 42660724 42580849 42011081 41861135 41311147
   40411133 40151069 40140931 39170829 38830668 39020568
   39570484 41390469 41680505

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2415
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0112 PM CST MON NOV 14 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL-ECNTRL AR...WRN TN...EXTREME NWRN MS AND THE
   MO BOOTHEEL
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 141912Z - 142045Z
   
   WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A NRN STREAM IMPULSE MIGRATING ACROSS NWRN
   MO...WITH SRN-MOST INFLUENCE GRAZING THE OZARKS THIS AFTN.  PRESSURE
   FALLS DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE LWR OH VLY HAVE INCREASED NOTABLY SINCE
   15Z.  THIS HAS AIDED IN AN ACCELERATION OF THE SWLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW
   FROM NERN TX INTO CNTRL AR.  CONSEQUENTLY...THE WARM/HUMID AIR MASS
   HAS SURGED NNEWD INTO CNTRL AR AND WRN TN...WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER
   GRADUALLY DESTABILIZING. 
   
   CU STREETS HAVE BEGUN TO SPROUT INTO CBS ACROSS SRN AR...ESPECIALLY
   ALONG THE RETREATING WARM FRONT AS WEAK LARGE SCALE ASCENT PASSES
   THROUGH THE REGION.  TSTMS ARE MOSTLY ELEVATED...BUT COULD BEGIN TO
   ROOT INTO THE UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER/WARM SECTOR AS TEMPERATURES
   WARM THROUGH THE 70S.  IF THIS OCCURS...EFFECTIVE VERTICAL SHEAR OF
   30-35 KTS SUGGESTS THAT STORMS COULD ATTAIN BRIEF SUPERCELL
   CHARACTERISTICS THIS AFTN/EARLY EVE WITH DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL BEING
   THE PRIMARY THREATS. A TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT...PRIMARILY ALONG
   THE WARM FRONT FROM EAST OF LITTLE ROCK TO VCNTY MEMPHIS.  IF TSTMS
   STAY SUFFICIENTLY ELEVATED N OF THE WARM FRONT...HAIL WOULD BE THE
   PRIMARY CONCERN.
   
   ..RACY.. 11/14/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MEG...LZK...
   
   34289295 35249232 35949011 36308924 35768884 35138893
   34529005 33779196

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2416
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0342 PM CST MON NOV 14 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL-ERN AR...WRN TN...EXTREME NWRN MS AND THE MO
   BOOTHEEL
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 861...
   
   VALID 142142Z - 142315Z
   
   MESOANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO REDEVELOP
   QUICKLY NWD THROUGH THE MS VLY...NORTH OF KMEM THEN INTO SRN KY.
   THE COLD WEDGE IN THE OZARKS HAS BEEN A LITTLE RELUCTANT TO SCOUR
   ALONG THE WRN PORTIONS OF THE FRONT...BUT SHOULD DO SO THIS EVENING.
   
   EARLIER BRIEF EPISODE OF STRONGER WARM ADVECTION...LIKELY TIED TO
   THE TAIL-END OF THE MO MID-LEVEL IMPULSE...WAS TRANSLATING NEWD INTO
   THE LWR OH VLY.  BUT...RAPID APPROACH OF A STRONGER JET STREAM
   ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS /INCREASING PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS NRN TX/ WILL
   BE FAVORABLE FOR A GRADUAL UPSWING IN TSTMS...ESPECIALLY LATER THIS
   EVENING/OVERNIGHT.
   
   VERTICAL SHEAR WILL INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND THE
   PROBABILITIES FOR SUSTAINED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WILL
   CORRESPONDINGLY INCREASE.  THE NEAR SURFACE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BACK
   AND STRENGTHEN THIS EVENING IN RESPONSE TO UPSTREAM PRESSURE FALLS.
   THUS...WHILE THERE HAS BEEN A SLIGHT WEAKENING OF THE LOW-LEVEL
   HELICITY FIELDS THIS AFTN...SHEAR WILL INCREASE DURING THE NEXT FEW
   HOURS...INCREASING THE TORNADO THREAT. OTHERWISE... DAMAGING WIND
   GUSTS AND HAIL WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE.
   
   ..RACY.. 11/14/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...
   
   33359251 33469305 34229334 34909314 35609201 36399105
   36498919 36338886 35658874 34848919 34229021 34029127

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2417
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0456 PM CST MON NOV 14 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NERN MS....NRN AL...WRN/MIDDLE TN
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 142256Z - 150130Z
   
   ISOLATED SUPERCELL STORMS WITH POSSIBLE FUNNEL CLOUDS AND A LOW
   CHANCE OF A TORNADO COULD SPREAD NEWD ACROSS PARTS OF THE TN VALLEY
   THIS EVENING.
   
   CONVECTION HAS BEEN SLOW TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE IN A SW-NE BAND
   FROM SCNTRL MS TO NRN AL/MIDDLE TN THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. THIS
   DEVELOPMENT APPEARS LINKED TO A LOW-AMPLITUDE SRN STREAM IMPULSE
   SPREADING NEWD FROM TX/LA ATOP LOW LEVEL MOIST AXIS WHERE CAPPING
   INVERSION IS WEAK. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS HAVE PRODUCED A MESOSCALE
   DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY ACROSS NWRN AL/NERN MS AND WEAK
   ROTATION WAS EVIDENT IN CELLS TRACKING NEAR THIS BOUNDARY. OVERALL
   SEVERE THREAT APPEARS LIMITED BY A COUPLE OF FACTORS INCLUDING 1)
   LACK OF STRONGER INSTABILITY/STEEPER LAPSE RATES...AND 2) WEAK LOW
   LEVEL SHEAR. ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR BASED ON OKO PROFILER AND VWP
   DATA IS ADEQUATE TO MAINTAIN UPDRAFT ROTATION AND SUPERCELL
   STRUCTURE WITH DISCRETE CELLS...AFOREMENTIONED LIMITATIONS...AND
   PASSAGE/DEAMPLIFICATION OF UPPER FORCING...SHOULD PRECLUDE THE NEED
   FOR A WATCH OVER THE AREA.
   
   ..CARBIN.. 11/14/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...
   
   36318554 33788710 31639015 32349070 36438789

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2418
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0540 PM CST MON NOV 14 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OK...SRN MO...AR...WRN TN...NWRN MS
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 861...
   
   VALID 142340Z - 150115Z
   
   LITTLE OR NO CONVECTION HAS BEEN DETECTED IN TORNADO WATCH 861 OVER
   THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. MEANWHILE...RADAR ECHOES WERE INCREASING
   FROM ERN OK TO NRN AR AND SRN MO. A POSSIBLE SEVERE TSTM WATCH WILL
   LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THESE AREAS...NORTH AND WEST OF TORNADO WATCH
   861...WITHIN THE HOUR.
   
   RAPID CHANGES ARE UNDERWAY IN THE LOW THROUGH MID LEVELS FROM THE
   RED RIVER VALLEY NWD OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS AS INTENSIFYING
   LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT SPREADS SEWD FROM THE SRN HIGH
   PLAINS. WARM SECTOR AIR MASS FROM SERN OK INTO CNTRL AR APPEARS TO
   BE SURGING NWD ACROSS THE FRONTAL ZONE AND AIDING CONVECTIVE
   DEVELOPMENT OVER THE PAST 1-2 HOURS FROM ERN OK TO NRN AR. WHILE
   THIS CONVECTION WAS GENERALLY DEVELOPING ABOVE A STABLE BOUNDARY
   LAYER...STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH ADIABATIC COOLING
   ALOFT AND A CONTINUING INFLUX OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD
   CONTRIBUTE TO AN INCREASE IN INSTABILITY AND CONVECTION THROUGH THE
   EVENING. EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL ALSO STRENGTHEN COINCIDENT WITH THIS
   AIR MASS MODIFICATION AND INTENSIFYING LARGE SCALE ASCENT TO RESULT
   IN GREATER STORM ORGANIZATION WITH TIME. EXPECT THE THREAT OF
   ELEVATED SUPERCELL STORMS WITH HAIL WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION
   THROUGH MIDNIGHT. AREA NEAR THE SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL NEED TO BE
   MONITORED CLOSELY FOR AN INCREASE IN SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION LATER
   TONIGHT. HOWEVER...ELEVATED UPDRAFTS APPEAR TO BE THE MORE IMMINENT
   THREAT IN THE SHORT TERM.
   
   ..CARBIN.. 11/14/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...
   
   35058877 33289304 34759351 34359525 34949603 36589514
   37728993 36848940

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2419
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0856 PM CST MON NOV 14 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OK...NRN AR...SRN MO...SRN IL...SWRN IND...WRN
   KY/TN
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 150256Z - 150530Z
   
   SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT FROM
   SRN PLAINS TO LOWER OH VALLEY. WATCHES ARE LIKELY OVER PORTIONS OF
   THESE AREAS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
   
   ISENTROPIC ASCENT HAS STEADILY STRENGTHENED THROUGH THE EVENING IN
   AN EXTENSIVE BAND FROM THE RED RIVER VALLEY TO THE LOWER OH RIVER
   VALLEY. STORMS HAVE SO FAR REMAINED SUB-SEVERE POSSIBLY DUE TO
   MARGINAL LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT.
   HOWEVER...DEEP LAYER ASCENT AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX WILL
   CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT AS STRONG HEIGHT
   FALLS AND LARGE SCALE TROUGH AMPLIFICATION ACT ON A WARM/MOIST AIR
   MASS DEVELOPING NEWD FROM THE GULF COAST STATES.
   
   LATEST DIAGNOSTIC DATA INDICATES THAT EFFECTIVE SHEAR WAS INCREASING
   FROM OK ENEWD TO WRN KY AND THIS COULD RESULT IN GREATER STORM
   ORGANIZATION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ONGOING ACTIVITY HAS REMAINED
   ROOTED ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER MOSTLY NORTH OF WARM SECTOR AIR
   MASS. THESE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PRESENT A CHANCE FOR HAIL.
   CHANCE FOR SURFACE-BASED SUPERCELLS...AND SOME TORNADO
   POTENTIAL...MAY INCREASE ALONG THE WARM FRONT AS FORCING INTENSIFIES
   OVER PARTS OF THE REGION NEXT FEW HOURS.
   
   ..CARBIN.. 11/15/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...OUN...
   
   34569377 34129549 35889648 36599392 38168871 38668655
   36988700 35699093

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2420
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1108 PM CST MON NOV 14 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN KS AND SWRN MO
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 150508Z - 150645Z
   
   CLUSTER OF INTENSE TSTMS SPREADING NEWD ACROSS NERN OK MAY PRODUCE
   LARGE HAIL ACROSS PARTS OF SERN KS AND SWRN MO INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.
   A SEVERE TSTM WATCH IS BEING CONSIDERED FOR THE AREA AS STORMS ARE
   EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
   
   THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG A VARIETY OF SHORT-TERM MODEL GUIDANCE
   THAT TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP RAPIDLY FROM SRN KS INTO SWRN MO OVER THE
   NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS IS FURTHER SUPPORTED BY ONGOING CLUSTER OF
   CONVECTION SPREADING NEWD FROM NERN OK ATTM. RAPID RETURN OF LOW
   LEVEL MOISTURE ON INTENSIFYING LOW LEVEL JET AND STEEPENING LAPSE
   RATES ALOFT DUE TO PRONOUNCED LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL SUPPORT
   VIGOROUS STORM UPDRAFTS IN AN INCREASINGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT FOR
   THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT. ELEVATED SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL APPEAR
   POSSIBLE GIVEN THIS SCENARIO AND A NEW WATCH MAY BE ISSUED SHORTLY.
   
   ..CARBIN.. 11/15/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...
   
   36999493 37059701 38419697 38409274 37099191 36969384

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2421
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0222 AM CST TUE NOV 15 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OK/NRN AR/SRN MO/WRN KS/SRN IL/SRN IN/PARTS OF
   WRN AND MIDDLE TN
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 862...863...
   
   VALID 150822Z - 151015Z
   
   SEVERE/TORNADO THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS WW 862 AND 863...WITH THREAT
   FOR HEAVY RAIN ALSO CONTINUING -- ESPECIALLY FROM SERN MO ENEWD
   ALONG/INVOF THE OH RIVER.
   
   LATEST RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT STRONGEST CONVECTION REMAINS
   CONFINED TO A NARROW ZONE INVOF MAIN WARM FRONT -- NOW EXTENDING
   FROM SURFACE LOW OVER N CENTRAL OK EWD ACROSS FAR SRN MO AND THEN
   ENEWD ROUGHLY ALONG THE OH RIVER.  THOUGH INSTABILITY REMAINS
   LIMITED ALONG THE BOUNDARY...STRONG DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD CONTINUES
   TO SUPPORT A THREAT FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND MARGINAL HAIL
   ALONG WITH A COUPLE OF TORNADOES.
   
   THOUGH INSTABILITY IS GREATER S OF WARM FRONT...MAIN FORCING FOR
   CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT CONTINUES TO BE WARM ADVECTION ALONG AND N OF
   BOUNDARY.  EXPECT MAIN THREAT TO REMAIN CONFINED TO THE BOUNDARY AND
   AREAS N FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...THOUGH MORE ISOLATED/CELLULAR
   CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF WW 862/863 S OF WARM
   FRONT AND MOVE RAPIDLY NWD TOWARD THE FRONT.  THOUGH THIS MORE
   CELLULAR CONVECTION HAS REMAINED GENERALLY SUB-SEVERE THUS
   FAR...TORNADO THREAT REMAINS POSSIBLE SHOULD A FEW STRONGER STORMS
   EVOLVE GIVEN LIKELIHOOD FOR RAPID ACQUISITION OF ROTATION WITH ANY
   STRONGER CELL.
   
   WITH LOW-LEVEL FLOW VEERING TO SWLY ACROSS MUCH OF OK AND DRY SLOT
   APPARENTLY DEVELOPING/SPREADING EWD ACCORDING TO LATEST WV IMAGERY
   -- IN SUPPORT OF MODEL FORECASTS...EXPECT MAIN SURFACE-BASED SEVERE
   THREAT TO CONTINUE SHIFTING EWD ACROSS WW 862/AWAY FROM CENTRAL OK
   WITH TIME.
   
   ..GOSS.. 11/15/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...TSA...ICT...OUN...
   
   36719706 38308569 36318602 35269111 34669583

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2422
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0257 AM CST TUE NOV 15 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...E CENTRAL AND SE KS...W CENTRAL AND SW MO.
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 150857Z - 151000Z
   
   SEVERE TSTM THREAT...MAINLY LIMITED TO HAIL...WILL PERSIST FOR THE
   NEXT SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS ERN KS/WRN MO.  THE NEED FOR A SEVERE TSTM
   WATCH WILL BE DISCUSSED WITH LOCAL WFO/S SHORTLY.
   
   ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS E/SE KS INTO
   W/SW MO IN THE REGION OF LOW-LEVEL WAA/STRONG ASCENT DOWNSTREAM FROM
   THE SURFACE LOW IN NRN OK AND THE MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING EWD OVER
   WRN KS.  A 50-60 KT SWLY LLJ IS FEEDING MOISTURE N OF THE SURFACE
   WARM FRONT...AND 06Z OBS PLUS RECENT RUC MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
   MUCAPE OF 1000-150O J/KG OVERSPREADING SE KS/SW MO THIS MORNING.
   THE INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST MARGINALLY SEVERE
   HAIL THREAT...AND A WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY IN THE NEXT 30-60 MIN.
   
   ..THOMPSON.. 11/15/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...
   
   38749370 38329337 37449349 37259392 37159497 37219585
   37299684 37749721 38289740 38639717 38809618 38859447

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2423
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0604 AM CST TUE NOV 15 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF ERN OK/NERN TX/SRN MO/AR
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 151204Z - 151400Z
   
   SEVERE/TORNADO THREAT IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY INCREASE WITH TIME AHEAD
   OF COLD FRONT FROM ERN OK/NERN TX EWD TO THE MS RIVER. NEW TORNADO
   WATCH WILL BE ISSUED PRIOR TO 15/14Z...WITH A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE
   EVENT LIKELY TO BEGIN WITHIN THIS WW AREA.
   
   LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT MOVING RAPIDLY SEWD ACROSS
   ERN OK/N TX ATTM...S OF SURFACE LOW NOW ANALYZED IN FAR NERN OK.
   WARM FRONT EXTENDS EWD FROM THIS LOW ACROSS FAR SRN MO INTO THE
   LOWER OH VALLEY...WITH WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING ALONG AND
   N OF THIS FRONT. 
   
   WITHIN WARM SECTOR...MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER /DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO
   MID 60S/ EXISTS...AND SHOULD SPREAD NWD INTO SRN MO WITH TIME AS
   WARM FRONT RETREATS AHEAD OF DEEPENING LOW.  RAOBS FROM 15/06Z
   WITHIN WW AREA SHOW 1000 TO 1500 J/KG ELEVATED CAPE...WHICH SHOULD
   BECOME SURFACE-BASED WITH TIME AS BOUNDARY LAYER
   HEATING/DESTABILIZATION COMMENCES THIS MORNING.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW A
   RAPID INCREASE IN CONVECTION -- NOW DEVELOPING AHEAD OF COLD FRONT
   OVER FAR ERN OK.
   
   ALL DATA -- FROM PROFILERS/VWPS TO RAOBS TO MODEL FORECASTS --
   REVEAL WIND PROFILES FEATURING INCREASINGLY-STRONG/VEERING FLOW WITH
   HEIGHT...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW INITIATING STORMS TO RAPIDLY ACQUIRE
   MESOCYCLONIC ROTATION. THOUGH STORM MODE SHOULD BECOME QUASI-LINEAR
   INVOF COLD FRONT...EMBEDDED BOWS/LEWPS/SUPERCELLS ARE
   EXPECTED...WHICH SUGGESTS A THREAT FOR TORNADOES WITHIN THE LINE
   ALONG WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.  ADDITIONALLY...WITH MOIST
   BOUNDARY LAYER EXPECTED TO BECOME UNCAPPED BY MID-MORNING...EXPECT
   OTHER BANDS OF MORE ISOLATED/SUPERCELL STORMS TO DEVELOP WITH WARM
   SECTOR AHEAD OF FRONT. THREAT FOR TORNADOES -- WITH A FEW
   POTENTIALLY LONG-TRACK/SIGNIFICANT -- MAY BE PARTICULARLY PRONOUNCED
   WITHIN THESE PRE-FRONTAL BANDS OF SUPERCELLS ACROSS ERN AR/SERN MO
   FROM ROUGHLY MIDDAY ONWARD.
   
   THOUGH INITIAL WATCH WILL LIKELY REMAIN W OF THE MS RIVER
   VALLEY...ADDITIONAL BANDS OF PRE-FRONTAL SUPERCELLS WILL LIKELY
   EVOLVE LATER THIS MORNING E OF THE MS RIVER...LIKELY REQUIRING
   ADDITIONAL WW ISSUANCES FROM MS NWD ACROSS THE OH RIVER.
   
   ..GOSS.. 11/15/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...JAN...LSX...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...
   
   32989205 32919627 34369552 37119452 38099093 37828957
   35019021

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2424
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0747 AM CST TUE NOV 15 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...FAR ERN NEB/FAR NE KS INTO WRN IA/SW MN
   
   CONCERNING...PRECIPITATION TRENDS...WINTER PRECIPITATION
   
   VALID 151347Z - 151745Z
   
   A CHANGE-OVER TO LIGHT/OCNLY MDT SNOW WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING FROM
   FAR ERN NEB/FAR NE KS INTO WRN IA/SW MN. INCREASINGLY STRONG NWLY
   WINDS WILL FURTHER ADVERSELY IMPACT LOCAL CONDITIONS.
   
   LIGHT/MODERATE PRECIPITATION IS CURRENTLY ONGOING ALONG THE MISSOURI
   RIVER VALLEY...WITH A CHANGE-OVER TO SNOW OCCURRING WITHIN THE WRN
   PORTION OF THIS PRECIPITATION SHIELD. SIMILAR TO OBSERVATIONAL
   TRENDS...12Z RUC/06Z NAM AND LATEST SREF PRECIP-TYPE CONSENSUS
   SUGGESTS A SIMILAR CHANGE-OVER WILL OCCUR PROGRESSIVELY EWD ACROSS
   WRN IA/SW MN THROUGH 15Z-18Z...COINCIDENT WITH CAA/ONSET OF HIGHER
   PRECIPITATION RATES. PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY REMAIN PRIMARILY
   FOCUSED ALONG OCCLUDED FRONT/INVERTED TROUGH...WITH WEAK STATIC
   STABILITY CONTRIBUTING TO SOME ENHANCED NORTH-SOUTH BANDING. IN
   ADDITION...SHORT TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS NWLY WINDS WILL STEADILY
   INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING...WITH AN INCREASE ALREADY NOTED WITHIN
   EARLY MORNING NELIGH NEB PROFILER DATA PER 40-50 KTS IN LOWEST FEW
   KM.
   
   ..GUYER.. 11/15/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MPX...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...TOP...
   
   44329637 44139387 43229374 40889440 39989513 39329609
   40059705 42749693

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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2425
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0831 AM CST TUE NOV 15 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...ECNTRL MO...CNTRL/SRN IL...CNTRL/SRN IND

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 151431Z - 151530Z



TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED BY 15-16Z FOR PARTS OF THE AREA.


14Z MESOANALYSIS PLACES A WARM FRONT ALONG THE OH RVR WEST TO A
DEVELOPING LOW OVER SWRN MO. A SECONDARY WARM FRONT WAS FARTHER
N...FROM THE LOW NEWD INTO SCNTRL IL AND CNTRL IND. AS THE PCPN
SHIELD N OF THE OH RVR BECOMES MORE CELLULAR...THE WARM FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP QUICKLY NWD TO WHERE THE SECONDARY WARM FRONT
IS LOCATED. WARM MOIST AIR MASS...VERY STRONG LOW/DEEP LAYER SHEAR
WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES.

..RACY.. 11/15/2005

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2426
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0931 AM CST TUE NOV 15 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN TX...MUCH OF LA AND CNTRL/SRN MS
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 151531Z - 151730Z
   
   PROBABILITIES FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE TSTMS WILL INCREASE THROUGH LATE
   MORNING INTO THE AFTN ACROSS ERN TX AND THE LWR MS VLY.  ONE OR MORE
   WEATHER WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION.
   
   
   WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A STRONG MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
   TRANSLATING ACROSS KS. DEEPENING SFC LOW WAS OVER SWRN MO AND
   SHOULD DEVELOP NEWD INTO WCNTRL IL THIS AFTN.  STRONG AGEOSTROPHIC
   FORCING WILL MAINTAIN A STRONG SLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW ACROSS ERN TX
   AND THE LWR MS VLY THROUGH THE AFTN...ALONG/AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
   COLD FRONT.  GIVEN THE DYNAMIC SITUATION AT HAND...SEVERAL MESOSCALE
   CONFLUENT BANDS WILL EVOLVE AHEAD OF THE FRONT.  ONE SUCH BAND
   APPEARS TO BE FORMING FROM SWRN-NERN LA...SIMILAR TO THE 00Z WRF-NMM
   SOLUTION. 
   
   STRONGER INSTABILITY AXIS SHOULD EXIST ACROSS THE LWR MS VLY REGION
   THIS AFTN WHERE VERY MOIST/WARM AIR MASS WILL RESIDE. THOUGH
   STRONGER UVV SHOULD SHIFT NEWD INTO THE OH VLY/MIDWEST... TSTMS WILL
   GRADUALLY INTENSIFY THROUGH THE AFTN FARTHER S AND COULD GET A BOOST
   FROM A SUBTLE SUB-TROPICAL IMPULSE EJECTING NEWD ACROSS SRN TX ATTM.
    VERY STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES AND
   VERTICAL SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES...PARTICULARLY
   ACROSS THE LWR MS VLY. FARTHER W...A LINE OF TSTMS WILL EVENTUALLY
   EVOLVE ALONG THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT ACROSS ERN TX. THIS LINEAR
   MODE WILL CONTAIN EMBEDDED LEWPS/BOWS AND SUPERCELL STRUCTURES THAT
   WILL PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS...ISOLD TORNADOES AND HAIL AS THE LINE
   MOVES INTO THE LWR MS VLY THIS EVENING.
   
   ..RACY.. 11/15/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...
   
   30409665 32929562 32888859 29429116 29479704

[CaptinCrunch]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2427
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1013 AM CST TUE NOV 15 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME SERN OK...EXTREME NERN TX...AR...SRN
MO...EXTREME SRN IL...FAR WRN KY...WRN TN...NRN MS

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 864...865...

VALID 151613Z - 151815Z



TORNADO THREAT CONTINUES TO INCREASE. GREATEST RISK FOR
TORNADOES...A COUPLE OF WHICH COULD BE SIGNIFICANT...WILL EXIST IN A
REGION BOUNDED BY A LITTLE ROCK AR-VICHY MO-SALEM IL-EVANSVILLE
IND-CROSSVILLE TN LINE THROUGH AT LEAST MID-AFTN.

STRONGEST PRESSURE FALLS EXIST FROM THE KSTL AREA NEWD INTO CNTRL
IL. DEEPENING SFC LOW OVER SWRN MO WILL RAPIDLY DEVELOP NEWD TOWARD
THESE FALLS THROUGH MID-AFTN. THE WARM/MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER ALONG
THE OH VLY WAS BEGINNING TO ADVECT N OF THE OH RVR... BUT WAS A
LITTLE SLOW TO ERODE ACROSS THE OZARKS. AS THE LOW REDEVELOPS
NEWD...THE WARM AIR SHOULD ADVANCE INTO ECNTRL MO-CNTRL IL-CNTRL IND
LINE BY MID-AFTN.

STRONGEST LLJ AXIS IS EXPECTED TO EXIST FROM THE MS DELTA NWD INTO
WRN KY AND CNTRL IND BENEATH INCREASING SWLY FLOW OF 100+ KTS AT H5.
RESULTANT DEEP/LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR
SUPERCELLS/TORNADOES. THE STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL EXIST
CLOSER TO THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW/WARM FRONT...MAINLY FROM PARTS OF
AR INTO ECNTRL MO...CNTRL/SRN IL...SRN IND...WRN KY AND WRN TN.

PRE-FRONTAL CONFLUENCE BANDS...ALREADY DEVELOPING ACROSS CNTRL AR
AND SRN MO WILL GRADUALLY INTENSIFY WITH BOTH DISCRETE AND MIXED
LINEAR-DISCRETE MODES LIKELY TO EXIST. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM W-E ACROSS SRN MO/AR/NERN TX AS THE COLD
FRONT BEGINS TO ACCELERATE EWD.