FEMA: 35 foot surge in west Pass Christian

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MGC
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FEMA: 35 foot surge in west Pass Christian

#1 Postby MGC » Fri Nov 11, 2005 5:53 pm

And I believe them. 28 feet on Biloxi back bay.....MGC

http://www.sunherald.com/mld/sunherald/13128405.htm
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#2 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Fri Nov 11, 2005 6:34 pm

I agree Katrina kicked Camilles butt.
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#3 Postby f5 » Fri Nov 11, 2005 8:26 pm

strange that record surge from both Camille and Katrina occured in the exact same location thats pure irony thats all i get
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#4 Postby wxmann_91 » Fri Nov 11, 2005 8:30 pm

f5 wrote:strange that record surge from both Camille and Katrina occured in the exact same location thats pure irony thats all i get


It's not an irony or a coincidence. The Mississippi/Louisiana coastline is the most surge-vulnerable section of coastline in the United States.
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#5 Postby f5 » Fri Nov 11, 2005 8:43 pm

the next strom will have a 50 ft storm surge only next time it will be the size of Tip.Katrina wanted to beat Camille's surge record and she did in a butt kicking way.will that 35 ft become the offical number by NHC?
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#6 Postby wxmann_91 » Fri Nov 11, 2005 9:33 pm

f5 wrote:the next strom will have a 50 ft storm surge only next time it will be the size of Tip.Katrina wanted to beat Camille's surge record and she did in a butt kicking way.will that 35 ft become the offical number by NHC?


Don't know. We'll see. Like the intensity of Katrina at landfall, there are conflicting signals around Katrina's surge. The only thing set in stone is that Katrina did set a new surge record, whether it beat Camille but 1 ft or 10 ft.
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#7 Postby f5 » Fri Nov 11, 2005 9:39 pm

i know the SS scale is based on wind speed but they might at a later date classified Katrina as a CAT 5 due to the very high Camille butt Kicking surge and the nuclear destruction it did.without the radiation or toxic chemicals that come along with it thats the only difference.CAT 3 with a CAT 6 surge(i know there isn't a such thing)that causes many to scratch their head
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#8 Postby MGC » Fri Nov 11, 2005 9:48 pm

But, some (HRD) are claiming Katrina was barely a Cat-3 when she hit Mississippi. The effects of the surge are being seen every day. I noticed a couple of weeks ago that in all surge areas the pine trees are dying, likely caused by salt water. Thank goodness I live in east Pass Christian....MGC
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#9 Postby f5 » Fri Nov 11, 2005 9:52 pm

the problem with Katrina the damage is well outside the category on the SS scale.that why they keep debating about her intensity beacuse it doesn't match.we never had a storm that is way off base like this one was
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#10 Postby MGC » Fri Nov 11, 2005 9:58 pm

Well, the SS scale is based on 1 minute wind. Katrina had nowhere close to Cat-5 winds at landfall. The surge did 95% of the damage both in Louisiana and Mississippi. If you move away from the imediate coast is looks like Cat-3 damage. I doubt the NHC upgrades Katrina based only on surge. Pressure and surge wise Katrina was a 5 at landfall but wind no.....MGC
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#11 Postby f5 » Fri Nov 11, 2005 10:05 pm

it there were any CAT 5 winds it would be the louisiana landfall i can just imagine how much destruction there is down they beacuse there she was a CAT 5 with 160 mph winds just 50 miles south of buras,louisiana before she weaken to a very strong 4 winds 150 mph.i wonder what that parish looks like since they took the brunt.the surge must of been mind boggling considering what the mississippi coast looks like
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#12 Postby HurricaneBill » Fri Nov 11, 2005 11:23 pm

A hurricane's category is based on 1-minute sustained wind and 1-minute sustained winds only.

Unfortunately, the maximum 1-minute sustained winds do not represent the entire destructive fury of a hurricane.

Personally, I think there should be a separate category system for landfalls.
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#13 Postby WxGuy1 » Sat Nov 12, 2005 12:34 am

MGC wrote:Well, the SS scale is based on 1 minute wind. Katrina had nowhere close to Cat-5 winds at landfall. The surge did 95% of the damage both in Louisiana and Mississippi. If you move away from the imediate coast is looks like Cat-3 damage. I doubt the NHC upgrades Katrina based only on surge. Pressure and surge wise Katrina was a 5 at landfall but wind no.....MGC


For the record, I believe the Mississippi landfall central pressure was like 929mb, which usually isn't "Cat 5". Of course, CP isn't a direct representation of winds, but in my experience, Cat 5s generally have a central pressure <915-920mb. At the time of the landfalls, I believe she was Cat 4 on the LA landfall, and low Cat 3 on the MS landfall. Most of New Orleans saw Cat 1 winds, though the eastern fringes of the city likely saw Cat 2 sustained winds. As we've seen, current wind speed is not an indicator of surge height (otherwise we'd stratch our heads on a Cat 3 with a 25+ ft surge), so the Cat 1 (maybe 2) winds in New Orleans is no indicator of the water height on Lake Ponch.. It was a bad idea to say that the levees / seawalls were built to withstand a Cat 3 hurricane, since (again) there isn't a very good correlation between category number (sustained winds) and surge height... The levees are there to hold back the water, not the winds, so I find it curious that officials claim that the levees/seawalls were built to withstand certain winds (cat 3) when the winds have little to do with the purpose of the levees (though winds would affect wave height I suppose)... Back on topic, however...

It'd be nice to have a more detailed classification system, but let's remember something -- when it comes to storm intensity scales, in the eyes of the public, the simpler the easier. Heck, folks get the Fujita scale mixed up with the Saffir-Simpson scale, so further detail would likely lead to confusion, which isn't what you want when you're looking at warning response.
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#14 Postby f5 » Sat Nov 12, 2005 10:54 am

Katrina was a CAT 5 for almost 24 hrs the same length Isabel was.Also a Cat 3 that was once a CAT 5 with 166 KT at flight level is a totally different creature than one that hasn't
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#15 Postby thunderchief » Sat Nov 12, 2005 3:12 pm

Everything about katrina... size... direction... location... intensity... was perfect for surge.

The fact that it weakened slightly as it came ashore meens nothing.
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#16 Postby f5 » Sat Nov 12, 2005 3:32 pm

thunderchief wrote:Everything about katrina... size... direction... location... intensity... was perfect for surge.

The fact that it weakened slightly as it came ashore meens nothing.


Size-Atlantic Super Typhoon
Direction-Perpendicular
Location-same as Camille
Intensity-CAT 5 with Hurricane force winds over 100 miles out from center
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#17 Postby Brent » Sat Nov 12, 2005 3:50 pm

WxGuy1 wrote:I believe she was Cat 4 on the LA landfall, and low Cat 3 on the MS landfall.


I think so too.
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#18 Postby MGC » Sat Nov 12, 2005 4:46 pm

Katrina is proof the SS scale is worthless and needs updating. Andrew and all four hurricanes that hit Florida combined last year are equal to half the damage Katrina caused, yet historically Katrina is only a weak Cat-3 at landfall in Mississippi.......MGC
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#19 Postby HurricaneBill » Sat Nov 12, 2005 6:17 pm

MGC wrote:Katrina is proof the SS scale is worthless and needs updating. Andrew and all four hurricanes that hit Florida combined last year are equal to half the damage Katrina caused, yet historically Katrina is only a weak Cat-3 at landfall in Mississippi.......MGC


I agree. Which is why I think there needs to be a separate scale exclusively for landfalls. One that takes winds, pressure, and surge into account.

I think the Saffir-Simpson scale is fine for active storms. However, because of land friction, a landfalling hurricane is not the same as a hurricane over the ocean.
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#20 Postby JTD » Sun Nov 13, 2005 9:10 pm

Brent wrote:
WxGuy1 wrote:I believe she was Cat 4 on the LA landfall, and low Cat 3 on the MS landfall.


I think so too.


So the evidence is showing a cat 4 at LA landfall now? I've tuned out of the whole debate. The last I heard was that it was 115 mph at LA landfall? That's wrong?
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