Invest 93L Caribbean,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[dixiebreeze]

All you folks snickering out there, should keep in mind that one reason there are so many predictions of storms hitting Florida is because most storms DO hit Florida. If you'll look closely at a map, it does pretty much stick out there in the tropics.

[brunota2003]

dont forget us here in NC to, we stick WAY out there, any storms that recurve right before hitting florida normally wacks us...

[Brent]

Now I'm just waiting for the FL posters to say its coming toward them

Your wait is over.

[Brent]

All you folks snickering out there, should keep in mind that one reason there are so many predictions of storms hitting Florida is because most storms DO hit Florida. If you'll look closely at a map, it does pretty much stick out there in the tropics.

How many have hit Florida in November though?

I'm not saying this won't... but it's far less likely than August/September/October.

[Weatherfreak14]

Here we go again

[mike815]

yes Fl doesnt get hit as much in Nov. than in other months. I think usually the storms end up curving away because of fronts.

[wxman57]

Doesn't look like much to me at all. No significant convection, certainly no concentrations of convection. Shear looks hight. There's an LLC in the Pacific south of the system spinning up.

[HURAKAN]

yes Fl doesnt get hit as much in Nov. than in other months. I think usually the storms end up curving away because of fronts.

Hurricane Kate in 1985 was an exception to the rule. According to what I have read, at the formation of the system to the NE of Puerto Rico, atmospheric condition were similar to what we usually see during September and the hurricane moved westward. Hitting northern Cuba as a Cat. 2 hurricane, intensifying to a three over the Gulf of Mexico, and then hitting the Panhandle near Panama City, Florida, as a Cat. 2.

[Cookiely]

November named storms haven't been a stranger to the Atlantic Basin, however. Last year, Tropical Storm Otto flared in the open Atlantic Ocean the last day of November. A pair of tropical storms, Odette and Peter, spun up in early December 2003. U.S. hurricane landfalls in November, thankfully, are very rare. Since 1861, only 6 U.S. November hurricane landfalls have occurred, most recently 20 years ago when Category 2 Hurricane Kate struck near Apalachicola, Fla. This was the only November U.S. hurricane landfall in the last 70 years.
http://www.weather.com

[Weatherfreak14]

Wow, man, It looks now getting a bit better organized but I think it may loose some convection a bit after dark. But we could see a TD tommrow night or monday evening.

[CHRISTY]

[cycloneye]

ABNT20 KNHC 122231
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EST SAT NOV 12 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD AND DISORGANIZED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER PANAMA
IS PRODUCING EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS BUT ONLY LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND ADJACENT LAND AREAS.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS COULD BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES VERY LITTLE...
BUT ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR.

ELSEWHERE... TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
SUNDAY.

FORECASTER KNABB

$$


5:30 PM EST TWO.

[cycloneye]

FUELING BY DIFFLUENCE ON THE N
SIDE OF RIDGING IN THE AREA. ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE S OF
14N W OF 75W.. MOST NUMEROUS N OF 11N. COMPUTER MODELS HAVE
BACKED OFF A LITTLE ON SUGGESTING TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT.
HOWEVER THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE WATCHED AS UPPER LEVEL
WINDS COULD BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZATION BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

7 PM EST Discussion.

[cycloneye]

SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE BROAD AND DISORGANIZED AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAS DIMINISHED.


5:30 AM TWO

[wxman57]

He's dead, Jim!

[WindRunner]

OK, who was playing with the defibrillators?

964
WHXX01 KWBC 140047
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

.....THE FOLLOWING IS A TEST MESSAGE.....

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL932005) ON 20051114 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
051114 0000 051114 1200 051115 0000 051115 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 10.7N 76.5W 10.7N 77.6W 11.0N 78.9W 11.4N 80.4W
BAMM 10.7N 76.5W 10.4N 77.9W 10.5N 79.1W 10.7N 80.3W
A98E 10.7N 76.5W 10.6N 77.6W 10.6N 78.9W 10.6N 80.4W
LBAR 10.7N 76.5W 10.9N 77.9W 11.5N 79.1W 12.6N 80.2W
SHIP 25KTS 28KTS 33KTS 39KTS
DSHP 25KTS 28KTS 33KTS 39KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
051116 0000 051117 0000 051118 0000 051119 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 11.8N 82.1W 12.7N 86.2W 13.4N 90.5W 14.8N 94.3W
BAMM 11.0N 81.4W 11.4N 83.7W 11.2N 86.4W 10.9N 89.3W
A98E 11.0N 82.0W 11.4N 85.6W 11.8N 89.2W 12.6N 92.7W
LBAR 13.5N 81.5W 16.1N 84.1W 17.2N 85.1W 17.4N 84.5W
SHIP 43KTS 44KTS 38KTS 26KTS
DSHP 43KTS 44KTS 31KTS 20KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 10.7N LONCUR = 76.5W DIRCUR = 265DEG SPDCUR = 5KT
LATM12 = 10.8N LONM12 = 75.5W DIRM12 = 282DEG SPDM12 = 5KT
LATM24 = 10.2N LONM24 = 75.0W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 90NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 175NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

.....THE ABOVE HAS BEEN A TEST MESSAGE.....

[WindRunner]

Wow. Huge burst of convection.

[cycloneye]

93L is Back!!!!!!!!!!

After being taken out at NRL is now back.I think this has a chance to develp if it gets away from landmasses.And it looks much better than the old TD27.

[cjrciadt]

How do you tell where 93l ends and 27 begins?

[DESTRUCTION5]

I said this early this morning....I knew this was coming...