MESOSCALE DISCUSSION NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2388
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1225 PM CST SUN NOV 06 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...WV...WRN MD...NRN VA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 061825Z - 062030Z
   
   A CONVECTIVE LINE NEAR THE OH-WV STATE-LINE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
   EWD AND WILL LIKELY INCREASE IN INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A
   WW MAY BE NEEDED FOR PARTS OF WV INTO NRN MD AND NRN VA EARLY THIS
   AFTERNOON.
   
   AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE OH VALLEY WILL QUICKLY MOVE NEWD
   SPREADING STRONG ASCENT EWD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THE LINE OF
   STORMS NEAR THE OH-WV STATE-LINE APPEARS TO BE FORMING JUST AHEAD OF
   A BAND OF FOCUSED ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH AND A 100 KT
   MID-LEVEL JET LOCATED OVER OH. AHEAD OF THE LINE...PARTIAL CLEARING
   EVIDENT ON VISIBLE IMAGERY HAS RESULTED IN TEMPS WARMING INTO THE
   LOWER 70S F ACROSS MOST OF WRN WV. THIS ALONG WITH THE INCREASING
   ASCENT SHOULD ALLOW THE LINE TO GRADUALLY EXPAND SWD THIS AFTERNOON.
   IN ADDITION... THE STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT  AND INCREASING
   INSTABILITY SHOULD RESULT IN ISOLATED SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT.
   ALTHOUGH WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL WILL LIKELY BE THE PRIMARY THREAT...AN
   ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT MAY DEVELOP WITH THE STRONGER CELLS LATER
   THIS AFTERNOON AS THE STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW INCREASES.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 11/06/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...
   
   39628077 39657881 39137782 38507760 37897786 37477880
   37457967 37588131 38138191 39228160

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2389
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0158 PM CST SUN NOV 06 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ECNTRL NY...ERN PA...FAR NRN MD AND WRN NJ
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 850...
   
   VALID 061958Z - 062130Z
   
   SEVERAL LINES OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
   MOVE RAPIDLY ENEWD INTO THE ERN PARTS OF TORNADO WATCH 850. A NEW WW
   WILL LIKELY BECOME NECESSARY EAST OF THE CURRENT TORNADO WATCH
   WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.
   
   A VIGOROUS UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND AN ASSOCIATED
   90 KT MID-LEVEL JET MAX OVER OH WILL MOVE QUICKLY NEWD INTO THE
   APPALACHIAN MTNS THIS AFTERNOON. THE LEADING BAND OF ASCENT IS
   MOVING ACROSS WRN PA AND IS ENTERING WRN NY ATTM. THIS IS SUPPORTING
   SEVERAL CONVECTIVE LINES MOVING EWD ACROSS THE REGION. VISIBLE
   SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLEARING SKIES AHEAD OF THE LINE IN CNTRL PA
   AND PARTIAL CLEARING IN SW NY. AS A RESULT...DESTABILIZATION WILL
   CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE LINE ALLOWING THE STORMS TO REMAIN INTENSE
   THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. THE STRONGLY SHEARED
   ENVIRONMENT AND INCREASING INSTABILITY WILL SUSTAIN THE SUPERCELL
   POTENTIAL. ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT WILL LIKELY
   CONTINUE...THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL. A NEW WW
   WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AS THE CONVECTION CONTINUES TO MOVE EWD THIS
   AFTERNOON.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 11/06/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...BUF...CTP...LWX...
   
   44277593 44057400 43387343 40937449 39617543 39587771
   39727854 40467844 42837734 43617691 44027653

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2390
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0547 PM CST SUN NOV 06 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS ERN PA...NRN NJ...ERN NY...WRN VT...
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 851...
   
   VALID 062347Z - 070115Z
   
   COLD FRONTAL SQUALL LINE CONTAINING SEVERAL BOW/LEWP FEATURES WILL
   MAINTAIN POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND AS IT MOVES EWD ACROSS MOST OF
   WW AREA..INCLUDING ALB/GFL/POU REGIONS.  ZONE OF DAMAGING WIND
   POTENTIAL MAY EXTEND E AND SE OF SRN PORTION WW...ACROSS PORTIONS
   SERN PA...NJ AND NYC AREA...BUT DIMINISHING WITH TIME AND EWD EXTENT
   AS INFLOW BECOMES MORE STABLE. ADDITIONAL WW NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM
   BECAUSE OF LIMITED AREA OF THREAT AND DECLINING PROBABILITIES WITH
   EWD EXTENT.
   
   SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS THERMAL/MOIST AXES JUST AHEAD OF CONVECTIVE
   BAND OVER ERN NY...THERMAL AXIS CURVING SWWD OVER ERN PA AND MOST
   AXIS SEWD ACROSS ERN NJ AND JUST OFFSHORE.  ANOTHER STRONG FRONTAL
   ZONE -- ASSOCIATED WITH COLD MARINE AIR MASS ADVECTED OFF ATLANTIC
   -- EXTENDING NEARLY MERIDIONALLY INVOF ERN NY BORDER.  STRONG
   ISALLOBARIC FORCING OVER ONT/SRN QUE...AND ASSOCIATED BACKING OF LOW
   SFC FLOW...SHOULD RESULT IN RELATIVELY COLD/STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER E
   OF MARINE FRONT DRIFTING FARTHER WWD INTO MORE OF HUDSON/CHAMPLAIN
   VALLEYS BEFORE ARRIVAL OF CONVECTIVE BAND.  MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS
   INDICATE INTENSE LOW LEVEL WAA ABOVE STABLE LAYER WILL OFFSET WEAK
   MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN TSTM POTENTIAL INTO WRN/NRN
   NEW ENGLAND...WITH ELEVATED MUCAPE GENERALLY AOB 300 J/KG.  HOWEVER
   SEVERE DOWNDRAFT POTENTIAL WILL DIMINISH GREATLY AS CONVECTION
   CROSSES MARINE FRONT AND PROCEEDS EWD.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 11/06/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...
   
   41097570 41707539 41907522 42207528 42717474 43237483
   43487427 43977417 44317438 44997423 45017229 42727325
   42097342 41727348 41097357 40487392 40017420 39847512
   39827560 39817700

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2391
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0714 PM CST SUN NOV 06 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NERN MD...DE...PORTIONS SERN PA AND SRN NJ
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 070114Z - 070315Z
   
   LINE OF STRONG/POSSIBLY SEVERE TSTMS HAS BACKBUILT SWWD ALONG COLD
   FRONT...INTO PORTIONS NRN MD.  EXPECT SOME ADDITIONAL CONVECTION TO
   DEVELOP AND MOVE NEWD ESSENTIALLY IN PACE WITH EWD MOTION OF COLD
   FRONT. RESULTANT CONVECTIVE LINE WILL CROSS DE VALLEY AND NRN
   CHESAPEAKE BAY REGIONS...WEAKENING AS IT APCHS ATLANTIC COAST WHERE
   SFC AIR MASS TRANSITIONS TO MORE COOL/STABLE MARINE LAYER.  THREAT
   APPEARS MARGINAL ENOUGH SUCH THAT WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED
   ATTM...HOWEVER GUSTS OF LARGELY SUBSEVERE CRITERIA MAY STILL PRODUCE
   OCCASIONAL DAMAGE.
   
   00Z IAD RAOB SHOWS MUCAPE 400-500 J/KG ATOP WELL MIXED CONVECTIVE
   BOUNDARY LAYER.  SUBCLOUD EVAPORATION CAN ENHANCE DOWNDRAFT STRENGTH
   AND AID IN TRANSPORTING MOMENTUM TO SFC...FROM AREA OF 40-50 KT FLOW
   2-4 KM AGL.  COMBINATION OF DIABATIC SFC COOLING -- AND OVER ERN
   NJ/ERN DELMARVA AREA...MARINE CAA -- WILL REDUCE DCAPE WITH TIME.
   MEANWHILE...BACKBUILDING MAY EXTEND AS FAR S AS LATITUDE OF SRN
   DE/MD BORDER BEFORE ACTIVITY MOVES OFFSHORE.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 11/07/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...CTP...LWX...
   
   39257688 40457544 40697398 40467396 40267395 39747406
   39367436 38537510

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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2392
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1235 PM CST TUE NOV 08 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN IND...SWRN AND CNTRL OH

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 081835Z - 082100Z



TSTMS HAVE BEEN GRADUALLY INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF
CNTRL AND SWRN OH. THREAT CURRENTLY APPEARS LIMITED TO ISOLATED AND
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. HOWEVER...THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED FOR AN INCREASE IN SEVERE STORM COVERAGE AND POTENTIAL.

STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE CELLS HAVE INCREASED NEAR THE ERN EXTENT
OF A WARM FRONT BISECTING IND/OH AREA. LIFT ACROSS THIS BOUNDARY WAS
LIKELY BEING AIDED BY THE APPROACH OF A WEAK LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORT
WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING EAST FROM IL/IND. GIVEN ANTECEDENT
STEEP LAPSE RATES IN THE MID LEVELS...AND INFLUX OF UNSEASONABLY
MOIST AIRMASS IN THE LOW THROUGH MID LEVELS...EXPECT RESULTANT
INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT A FEW STOUT UPDRAFTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
MID LEVEL FLOW OF 40-50KT AND VERTICAL SPEED SHEAR WERE ALSO AIDING
STORM ORGANIZATION AND COULD SUPPORT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES AND HAIL
PRODUCTION.

PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR FOR MORE WIDESPREAD STORM DEVELOPMENT
APPEARS TO BE LACK OF STRONGER LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT.
HOWEVER...LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY AND OBS ACROSS SRN OH SUGGEST
SURFACE HEATING COULD FURTHER WEAKEN CONVECTIVE INHIBITION AND BOOST
SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. IF STORMS CAN
INCREASE ACROSS WARM-SECTOR...FROM ERN IND INTO SRN OH...A WATCH MAY
BE NEEDED.

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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2393
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0530 PM CST TUE NOV 08 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS E-CENTRAL/SERN IA...CENTRAL/NRN
IL...CENTRAL/NRN INDIANA...SRN LOWER MI...SRN LM...SRN WI...WRN OH.

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 082330Z - 090100Z



POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE TSTM DEVELOPMENT WILL INCREASE DURING NEXT FEW
HOURS IN A WNW-ESE ORIENTED CORRIDOR MAINLY OVER CENTRAL/NRN
PORTIONS IL/INDIANA. THREAT MAY EXTEND AS FAR W AS MS RIVER REGION.
TORNADO WW AND SEPARATE SEVERE TSTM WW FARTHER N ARE BEING PREPARED
ATTM.

SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS DOUBLE STRUCTURED WARM FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS
REGION. SOUTHERN BOUNDARY -- REINFORCED INITIALLY BY DIFFERENTIAL
DIURNAL HEATING/MIXING -- IS EVIDENT FROM SWRN IA ESEWD ACROSS NERN
MO...SRN IL...EVV/OWB REGION...INTO E-CENTRAL KY. EXPECT THIS FRONT
TO LOSE DEFINITION AND CONSOLIDATE NWD AMIDST CONTINUED BOUNDARY
LAYER WAA AND PRESSURE FALLS FARTHER NW. NRN FRONTAL SEGMENT IS
STRENGTHENING FROM TRIPLE POINT LOW IN NERN SD...SEWD ACROSS CENTRAL
IA THEN ESEWD OVER CENTRAL IL/INDIANA JUST N OF AN SPI-IND
LINE...BECOMING DIFFUSED BY OUTFLOW EWD TO NEAR HTS. LATTER FRONTAL
SEGMENT SHOULD MOVE NWD ABOUT 10 KT.

MODIFIED 18Z ILX RAOB AND RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR ANY
TSTMS ALONG OR IN NARROW CORRIDOR IMMEDIATELY N OF FRONT TO BE
NEARLY SFC-BASED....INFLOW LAYER BECOMING INCREASINGLY ELEVATED WITH
NWD EXTENT FROM WARM FRONTOGENESIS ZONE. ACCORDINGLY...SFC DEW
POINTS LOW 60S F CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG ALONG AND S
OF NRN FRONT...TRANSITIONING TO ELEVATED MUCAPES 1500-2000 J/KG
WITHIN ABOUT 75 NM N OF NRN WARM FRONT SEGMENT. SBCINH INCREASES
WITH WWD EXTENT BENEATH STRONGER ELEVATED MIXED LAYER...SO POTENTIAL
FOR SFC-BASED TSTMS IS MORE UNCERTAIN OVER WRN IL AND ERN IA THAN
FARTHER E. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES SUPPORT SUPERCELL MODES...WITH
DAMAGING GUSTS AND SLGT RISK FOR TORNADOES INVOF FRONT...AND LARGE
HAIL BEING MOST DOMINANT THREAT WELL N OF FRONT. STRONG CURVATURE IN
HODOGRAPHS ALONG/N OF FRONT AND 40-50 KT MIDLEVEL WNWLYS SUPPORT 0-1
KM SRH 125-250 J/KG AND 0-6 KM SHEARS ABOUT 60 KT.

..EDWARDS.. 11/08/2005

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2394
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0744 PM CST TUE NOV 08 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OH...SERN LOWER MI...LM...EXTREME SRN LH.
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 090144Z - 090315Z
   
   SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE GRADUALLY THROUGH
   REMAINDER EVENING AND EARLY MORNING HOURS...FROM W-E ACROSS AREA E
   OF CURRENT WWS 852-853.  REGION FROM SERN LOWER MI ACROSS MUCH OF OH
   IS BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW.
   
   SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM NEAR HTS NWWD ACROSS
   SWRN AND EXTREME W-CENTRAL OH...EMANATING FROM MCS NOW DISSIPATING
   OVER NRN VA AND SRN WV.  WRN PORTION OF THIS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
   INTERSECTS ZONE OF SFC WARM FRONTOGENESIS NEAR DAY...LATTER FRONT
   EXTENDING WNWWD ACROSS WW 852. INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT --
   MAINLY IN FORM OF LOW LEVEL WAA...WILL COMBINE WITH MOIST ADVECTION
   TO SUPPORT BOTH CONVECTION MOVING INTO AREA FROM WWS AND ADDITIONAL
   TSTM DEVELOPMENT.  VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES SUPPORT STORM ROTATION.
   NEAR WARM FRONT AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...STRONG DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN
   BOUNDARY LAYER -- COMBINED WITH 40-50 KT MIDLEVEL FLOW...YIELDS 0-1
   KM SRH 150-250 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE LAYER SHEARS 50-60 KT.  STORM
   INFLOW LAYER WILL BECOME MORE ELEVATED WITH NWD EXTENT FROM
   BOUNDARIES.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 11/09/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...IND...
   
   38958224 39698479 40878482 40808419 42968399 43298231
   42678247 42308299 41798310 42148104 40268061

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2395
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0908 PM CST TUE NOV 08 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/NRN IL...CENTRAL/NRN INDIANA
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 852...
   
   VALID 090308Z - 090445Z
   
   COR TO REMOVE SPURIOUS LAT/LON CODING
   
   NEAR SFC-BASED SEVERE POTENTIAL -- ALREADY CONDITIONAL BECAUSE OF
   STRENGTHENING SBCINH WITH WWD EXTENT -- IS DIMINISHING OVER IL
   PORTION OF WW AND PERHAPS PORTIONS CENTRAL/WRN INDIANA AS WELL.  IF
   PRESENT TRENDS CONTINUE WW MAY NEED TO BE CLEARED W OF ONGOING
   CLUSTER OF STRONG-SEVERE TSTMS OVER E-CENTRAL INDIANA. LATTER
   ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EWD 15-20 KT TOWARD WRN OH...WHERE
   SEVERE POTENTIAL IS INCREASING -- REF SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2394
   FOR ADDITIONAL NOWCAST INFO E OF BOTH WWS.
   
   SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS WARM FRONT CONSOLIDATING AND CONTINUING TO
   LIFT NWD 10-15 KT ACROSS MIDDLE/NRN PORTIONS WW.  VERTICAL SHEAR
   PROFILES REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS ALONG AND N OF WARM
   FRONT...WITH BACKED SFC WINDS CONTRIBUTING TO 0-3 KM SRH AROUND
   250-450 J/KG.  BUOYANCY REMAINS FAVORABLE BUT IS BECOMING MORE
   ELEVATED AS BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS ALONG AND S OF FRONT. PRIMARY
   CONVECTIVE EMPHASIS WITH TIME SHOULD SHIFT NWD INTO ELEVATED LOW
   LEVEL WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT REGIME OVER WW 853.  MESOSCALE
   DISCUSSION FORTHCOMING REGARDING THAT WW.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 11/09/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...ILN...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...DVN...
   
   40849033 41849030 40908481 3992848568061

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2396
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0925 PM CST TUE NOV 08 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS EXTREME E-CENTRAL/NERN IA...CENTRAL/SRN
   WI...NRN IL...SRN LM...S-CENTRAL/SWRN LOWER MI.
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 853...
   
   VALID 090325Z - 090530Z
   
   BAND OF TSTMS -- EVIDENT AT 315Z FROM OSH SEWD TOWARD BIV -- IS
   LOCATED ALONG NOSE OF STRONGEST LLJ-RELATED LIFT.  THIS ACTIVITY
   SHOULD MOVE EWD ACROSS SRN LM AND WRN LOWER MI...WITH SOME SEWD
   BUILDING ALREADY EVIDENT TOWARD NERN INDIANA AS MOIST ADVECTION
   CONTINUES OVER WARM FRONTAL ZONE.  REF SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2395
   FOR REGIONAL SFC MESOANALYTIC INFO.
   
   ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE FARTHER SW ACROSS WRN PORTION
   WW...GENERALLY INVOF WNW-ESE ORIENTED 850 MB WARM FRONT WHERE SW
   EDGE OF MAXIMIZED ISENTROPIC ASCENT IS ESTIMATED.  MODIFIED RUC
   SOUNDINGS AND REGIONAL VWP/PROFILER DATA SHOW STRONG VEERING WITH
   HEIGHT IN LOW-MIDDLE LEVELS...WITH ELEVATED MUCAPES GENERALLY
   500-1250 J/KG ACROSS MUCH OF WW AREA.  THIS WILL SUPPORT MODAL BLEND
   OF MULTICELLS AND SUPERCELLS -- ROOTED IN ELEVATED INFLOW LAYER --
   WITH LARGE HAIL BEING DOMINANT SEVERE THREAT.  POTENTIAL IS MORE
   CONDITIONAL WITH WWD EXTENT ACROSS WW AREA BECAUSE OF INCREASING
   CINH...ASSOCIATED WITH ELEVATED MIXED-LAYER AIR MASS THAT EMANATED
   FROM CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS AND ROCKIES.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 11/09/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...DTX...IWX...GRR...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX...
   
   42019099 43899097 42668413 40758409

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2397
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1129 PM CST TUE NOV 08 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SERN LOWER MI...ALL BUT SWRN OH...SRN
   LE...SRN LM.
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 853...854...
   
   VALID 090529Z - 090700Z
   
   GREATEST HAIL PROBABILITIES WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS SRN HALF LOWER MI
   AND NWRN/N-CENTRAL OH...IN CONJUNCTION WITH BAND OF ELEVATED TSTMS
   EVIDENT AT 5Z FROM ERN PORTION WW 853 SEWD ACROSS CENTRAL OH.
   ISOLATED HAIL MAY REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH TSTM BAND AS IT MOVES EWD
   INTO ERN OH...HOWEVER WEAKER SHEAR AND MUCAPE SUGGEST REDUCED SEVERE
   THREAT COMPARED TO AREAS NOW IN WW.
   
   IN IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF CONVECTIVE BAND...STRONGLY STABLE PROFILE
   EXTENDS FROM SFC TO AROUND 1 KM AGL OVER MOST OF WRN OH WITH SFC
   TEMPS IN 50S F...AND EXTENDS NWWD ACROSS LOWER MI.  STRONGEST REGIME
   OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT TO LFC -- ABOVE THAT STABLE LAYER -- WILL SHIFT
   EWD ACROSS LOWER MI AND OH ALONG WRN EDGE OF CONVECTIVE BAND.
   BUOYANCY USING ELEVATED INFLOW LAYER WILL INCREASE WITH TIME OVER
   ANY GIVEN LOCATION IN WW 854 AND ERN PORTIONS WW 853...BUT
   ALSO...DECREASE WITH EWD EXTENT.  ELEVATED MUCAPES RANGING FROM
   ABOUT 500-1500 J/KG ARE EXPECTED WITH GENERALLY 25-45 KT EFFECTIVE
   SHEAR IN BUOYANT RUC FCST SOUNDINGS.  THIS SUGGESTS CONTINUING MIX
   OF CLUSTERED/MULTICELL AND MARGINALLY SUPERCELLULAR MORPHOLOGIES.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 11/09/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...GRR...
   
   39508283 40118393 41338478 41928581 42088708 42668772
   43118760 43578618 43358503 43038239 42798247 42628253
   42528270 42428277 42338298 42328305 42118311 42078317
   41988318 41858305 41768266 41858210 42188064 40398066
   39288172

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2398
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0138 AM CST WED NOV 09 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...LWR MI
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 090738Z - 090915Z
   
   SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE THETA-E AXIS WAS ADVANCING NEWD AHEAD OF
   A STRENGTHENING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE UPPER MS VLY.  THE BOUNDARY
   LAYER WAS WARMING/MOISTENING FASTER THAN THE MODELS SUGGEST ACROSS
   SWRN LWR MI AND NRN IND.  THIS PROCESS IS APT TO CONTINUE AT LEAST
   ACROSS EXTREME SRN LWR MI THROUGH DAYBREAK.
   
   UPSTREAM MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX OF 80-90 KTS HAD TRANSLATED INTO THE
   UPPER MS VLY EARLY THIS MORNING...AND WILL PUNCH EWD INTO THE CNTRL
   GRTLKS REGION DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BOOSTING DEEP LAYER SHEAR
   VALUES.  INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE EXIT
   REGION OF THIS JET...IMPINGING UPON THE NRN EDGE OF THE INSTABILITY
   AXIS MAY INCREASE THE PROBABILITY FOR STRONGER TSTMS CLUSTERS ACROSS
   LWR MI YET THIS MORNING...WITH ROTATING UPDRAFTS POSSIBLE.  TSTMS
   WILL MOSTLY BE ELEVATED...ESPECIALLY IN THE FARTHER N LATITUDES AWAY
   FROM THE WARM FRONT...AND LARGE HAIL WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT.
   BUT...IF STORMS CAN DEVELOP ALONG THE SRN PERIPHERY OF STRONGER
   HEIGHT FALLS/INSTABILITY AXIS...NEAR-SURFACE BASED STORMS MAY GIVE
   RISE TO DAMAGING WIND/TORNADO THREATS.
   
   A SEPARATE AREA OF TSTMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE OCCLUDED FRONT/TRIPLE
   POINT ACROSS NRN WI/UPPER MI LATER THIS MORNING.  THESE STORMS COULD
   BACKBUILD SWD INTO NRN LWR MI NEAR DAYBREAK AND MAY POSE A HAIL
   THREAT.
   
   IF THE CURRENT STORM CLUSTERS INDEED SHOW AN INCREASE IN
   INTENSITY...REPLACEMENT WWS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ACROSS PARTS OF
   LWR MI.
   
   ..RACY.. 11/09/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...GRR...
   
   42218570 45388582 45448317 42118282

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2399
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0949 AM CST WED NOV 09 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NE OH...NW PA..WRN NY
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 091549Z - 091745Z
   
   THE SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY INCREASE LATE THIS MORNING ACROSS NERN
   OH...NW PA AND WRN NY. AS A RESULT...A WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY BY
   THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION.
   
   WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOW AN UPPER-LEVEL
   TROUGH MOVING ENEWD INTO ONTARIO WITH A BROAD BAND OF ASCENT MOVING
   EWD ACROSS MI. THIS COMBINED WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY AS SFC
   TEMPS WARM SHOULD RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION ACROSS THE
   REGION. THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION FOR INTENSE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
   SHOULD BE ALONG AND NEAR A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING SEWD FROM
   LAKE ERIE INTO NW PA. VAD WIND PROFILES ACROSS WRN NY AND NW PA
   CURRENTLY SHOW CURVED HODOGRAPHS WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES EXCEEDING
   60 KT. THIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS ESPECIALLY AS
   INSTABILITY INCREASES LATE THIS MORNING. LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE
   WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT IS
   EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 11/09/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE...
   
   41527843 40638030 40208176 40748244 41498214 42228092
   42588017 43257913 43547852 43547767 43157715 42387725

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2400
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0231 PM CST WED NOV 09 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN-ERN OH...WRN PA..NRN KY...FAR ERN WV
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 092031Z - 092230Z
   
   STORM INITIATION WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY LATE THIS
   AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS ERN AND SRH OH INTO NRN KY. WW
   ISSUANCE IS ANTICIPATED ONCE THE LOCATION OF STORM INITIATION
   BECOMES MORE CERTAIN.
   
   LARGE-SCALE ASCENT IS CURRENTLY INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS
   THE REGION DUE TO AN APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. AT THE SFC...A
   COLD FRONT EXTENDS SWWD FROM NCNTRL OH INTO FAR SRN IND. VISIBLE
   IMAGERY SHOWS SEVERAL BANDS OF GROWING CUMULUS AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN
   NCNTRL OH...FAR SERN IND AND ACROSS WRN KY (SOUTH OF THE OH RIVER).
   OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE CAPPING INVERSION HAS WEAKENED AHEAD OF
   THE FRONT WHICH SHOULD PROMOTE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS
   ASCENT INCREASES THIS AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST. VAD WIND PROFILES
   ACROSS THE REGION CURRENTLY SHOW 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES OF 50 TO 60 KT
   SUGGESTING THE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL
   STORMS. AS STORMS INITIATE AND TRACK EWD LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THE
   MORE ORGANIZED CELLS WILL HAVE A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE
   AND LARGE HAIL. INCREASING LOW-LEVEL FLOW AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET
   INTENSIFIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON...MAY ALSO RESULT IN A TORNADO
   THREAT MAINLY IN SERN OH...WRN PA AND WRN WV.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 11/09/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...JKL...ILN...LMK...
   
   41147943 40447949 38268241 37378433 37668535 38308557
   38828514 40308295 41528111 41678019

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2401
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0504 PM CST WED NOV 09 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...WRN/CNTRL NY AND NRN PA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 855...
   
   VALID 092304Z - 100000Z
   
   THE THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL
   CONTINUE ACROSS CNTRL AND ERN PORTIONS OF WW 855...WITH SOME
   POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER E OF CURRENT WW AFTER 00Z.  CONVECTIVE
   TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR AN ADDITIONAL WW.
   
   STRONGLY FORCED CONVECTIVE LINE CONTINUES TO EVOLVE THIS EVENING
   ALONG COLD FRONT FROM ROC SWWD TO FKL WITHIN STRONGLY SHEARED BUT
   MARGINALLY BUOYANT AMBIENT ENVIRONMENT.  AT LEAST ONE SUPERCELL HAS
   PERSISTED WITHIN THIS LINE ACROSS NRN CATTARAUGUS COUNTY NY WITH A
   MOVEMENT OF 265/45 KTS.  LATEST MESOANALYSIS SUGGESTS THAT THIS
   STORM IS LOCATED NEAR INTERSECTION OF COLD FRONT AND WARM FRONT
   LIFTING NEWD ACROSS WRN NY.
   
   INFLUX OF COMPARATIVELY WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR IN PLACE S OF THIS
   WARM FRONT ACROSS WRN PA IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE STRONG LARGE-SCALE
   FORCING AND VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD SUSTAIN THESE STORMS EWD ACROSS
   REMAINING PORTION OF WW 855.  THIS SEVERE WEATHER THREAT COULD
   EXTEND BEYOND CURRENT WW AND AN ADDITIONAL WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY
   IF STORMS CAN MAINTAIN THEIR INTENSITY.
   
   CONSIDERABLE PRECIPITATION/RAIN-COOLED AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE
   HUDSON VALLEY WWD THROUGH THE ADIRONDACKS INTO THE CATSKILLS SUGGEST
   THAT THIS SEVERE THREAT WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO POINTS W OF THIS
   AREA.
   
   ..MEAD.. 11/09/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE...
   
   41548024 43477798 43287596 41487673

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2402
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0704 PM CST WED NOV 09 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN PA INTO NRN/CNTRL WV
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 856...
   
   VALID 100104Z - 100200Z
   
   THE THREAT OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO
   CONTINUES ACROSS SERN PORTIONS OF WW 856.  ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT
   MAY DEVELOP E OF CURRENT WW LATE THIS EVENING...POSSIBLY REQUIRING
   AN ADDITIONAL WW.
   
   NEARLY SOLID CONVECTIVE LINE HAS EVOLVED OVER THE PAST 1-2 HOURS
   ALONG COLD FRONT FROM N-CNTRL PA INTO NWRN WV WITHIN ZONE OF STRONG
   LARGE-SCALE FORCING AHEAD OF AMPLIFYING MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND
   ASSOCIATED 80-90 KT JET STREAK.  00Z PIT SOUNDING SAMPLED WEDGE OF
   HIGHER THETA-E AIR SURGING NWD AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WHERE MLCAPE WAS
   ON THE ORDER OF 500 J/KG.  GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE OF LARGE-SCALE
   FORCING...IT APPEARS THAT THIS INSTABILITY IS SUFFICIENT TO SUSTAIN
   DEEP CONVECTION IN A STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT (I.E. 0-1 KM SRH
   OF 300 M2/S2 AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 70+ KTS). 
   
   WHILE IT APPEARS THAT SQUALL LINE COLD POOL IS BECOMING MORE
   EXPANSIVE WITH TIME...THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR COUPLED WITH THIS
   NARROW AXIS OF STRONGER INSTABILITY WOULD INDICATE THAT EMBEDDED
   SUPERCELLS STILL REMAIN POSSIBLE.  THUS...DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR TO
   BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...THOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO
   CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
   
   ADDITIONAL STORMS DEVELOPING OVER WRN PORTIONS OF WV WILL HAVE TO BE
   MONITORED FOR INTENSIFICATION.
   
   ..MEAD.. 11/10/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX...
   
   38738174 40917914 40897823 40557782 39947842 39577905
   38428046

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2403
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1233 PM CST SAT NOV 12 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SE SD/SW MN/ERN NEB/WRN IA...ERN KS AND PARTS OF
   WRN MO
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 121833Z - 122000Z
   
   SEVERE THREAT WILL INCREASE WITHIN NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.  ONE OR
   MORE TORNADO WWS WILL BE LIKELY BY THE 20-22Z TIME FRAME.
   
   SHORT WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO LIFT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARD
   THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY.  DRY SLOT...EAST OF WEAKENING MID-LEVEL
   CIRCULATION CENTER ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE...HAS ALLOWED FOR
   SUBSTANTIAL SURFACE HEATING ALONG WESTERN GRADIENT OF NARROW
   LOW-LEVEL MOIST TONGUE RETURNING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL
   PLAINS.  THIS EXTENDS ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS/NEBRASKA INTO THE
   VICINITY OF DEEPENING SURFACE LOW...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO MIGRATE
   TOWARD THE SIOUX FALLS AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
   
   AS LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE INCREASES ALONG DRY LINE/COLD FRONT
   TRAILING TO THE SOUTH OF SURFACE LOW...AND MID-LEVEL CAPPING IS
   ELIMINATED...STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SURFACE DEW POINTS
   AROUND 60F LIKELY WILL SUPPORT MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER CAPE AROUND 1000
   J/KG.  LATEST MODEL AND OBSERVATIONAL DATA SUGGEST THIS WILL OCCUR
   AROUND 21Z...PERHAPS A BIT EARLIER.
   
   THEREAFTER...RELATIVELY RAPID EVOLUTION OF SQUALL LINE WITH EMBEDDED
   SUPERCELLS IS EXPECTED FROM SURFACE LOW CENTER SOUTHWARD ALONG/EAST
   OF THE MISSOURI RIVER THROUGH WESTERN IOWA.  BROKEN LINE MAY EXTEND
   AS FAR SOUTH AS THE MISSOURI OZARKS BY EARLY EVENING.  EMBEDDED
   WITHIN FAVORABLE SHEARED MEAN FLOW REGIME ON THE ORDER OF 50+
   KT...DAMAGING WINDS/ISOLATED TORNADOES SEEM LIKELY...IN ADDITION TO
   RISK FOR LARGE HAIL.
   
   ..KERR.. 11/12/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...SGF...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...TOP...ICT...
   
   43289815 44139756 44109584 42309486 39669400 38109429
   37279520 37209617 39149599 41199682

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2404
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0154 PM CST SAT NOV 12 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NERN OK...FAR SWRN MO AND NWRN AR...SWD INTO
   NCENTRAL/NERN TX
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 121954Z - 122230Z
   
   ISOLATED SVR STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP AROUND 22Z OVER
   PORTIONS OF ERN OK SWWD INTO NCENTRAL/NERN TX. A WW IS ANTICIPATED
   FOR MUCH OF THE AREA BY 21Z.
   
   LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A DRYLINE EXTENDING FROM OSAGE COUNTY
   OK SWWD INTO NCENTRAL TX /JUST TO THE WEST OF THE DFW METRO AREA/.
   EWD ADVANCEMENT OF THIS DRYLINE WILL CONTINUE TO BE GREATEST OVER
   NERN/ECENTRAL OK /AROUND 25 KTS/...CLOSEST TO LOW TO MID LEVEL SPEED
   MAXIMUM. FURTHER SOUTH OVER SERN OK AND NCENTRAL TX...THE DRYLINE
   MOVEMENT WILL NOT BE MORE THAN 10 KTS. THE EXPECTED DRYLINE POSITION
   BY 22Z THEREFORE WILL BE FROM NEAR THE TULSA METRO AREA SWWD TO THE
   DFW METRO AREA. AIRMASS DOWNSTREAM OF THIS DRYLINE WILL CONTINUE TO
   DESTABILIZE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HRS WITH MUCAPES FROM 1500-2000
   J/KG AND LITTLE CINH REMAINING. SUFFICIENT CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
   DRYLINE ALONG WITH CONTINUED WAA AND REMOVAL OF 850-700 MB CAP LAYER
   WILL OCCUR IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS SUPPORTING ISOLATED TSTM
   DEVELOPMENT. VERY STRONG LOW-MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS NEARLY ORTHOGONAL
   TO THE DRYLINE...ESPECIALLY OVER NERN/ECENTRAL OK WILL SUPPORT 40-50
   KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR FAVORING DISCRETE SUPERCELL TSTMS. IN
   ADDITION...THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE GREATER OVER
   NERN OK INTO NWRN AR/FAR SWRN MO...CLOSEST TO LOW LEVEL JET MAX AND
   CONSEQUENT STRONGEST /20-25 KTS OF 0-1 KM/ LOW LEVEL SHEAR. IN
   ADDITION...LOW LCL/S WILL ALSO EXIST OVER THIS AREA.
   
   FURTHER SOUTH OVER SERN OK...NERN/NCENTRAL TX...SLIGHTLY WEAKER MID
   LEVEL WINDS /30-40 KTS/ WILL LIMIT CONVECTION TO MORE OF A
   MULTICELLULAR TYPE. HOWEVER...EVEN OVER THIS AREA...RELATIVELY STEEP
   MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ON SRN FRINGE OF MID LEVEL DRY SLOT...WILL
   SUPPORT THE THREAT FOR SVR HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. UNLIKE
   FURTHER NORTH...WEAKER LOW LEVEL WINDS SHOULD LIMIT THE TORNADO
   THREAT OVER NERN/NCENTRAL TX.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 11/12/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...
   
   36989563 36949609 34959698 33929741 32759785 32569712
   32589500 34849435 36379397 36939384

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2405
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0335 PM CST SAT NOV 12 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SE SD/SW MN...WRN IA
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 858...
   
   VALID 122135Z - 122300Z
   
   CONTINUE REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW.  POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
   TORNADOES IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE NEXT FEW HOURS.
   
   CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS ONGOING...FOCUSED NEAR SURFACE LOW
   CENTER...NOW JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF SIOUX FALLS...AND ALONG DRY
   LINE WHICH HAS SURGED EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER INTO WESTERN IOWA.
   UPSTREAM COLD FRONT APPEARS LIKELY TO MERGE INTO DRY LINE WITHIN THE
   NEXT HOUR OR TWO...AS SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AND SLOWLY
   MIGRATE NORTHEASTWARD. AS THIS OCCURS...BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION
   IS EXPECTED TO SOLIDIFY NEAR/NORTHWEST OF DES MOINES THROUGH THE
   VICINITY OF FORT DODGE INTO AREAS EAST OF SPENCER.  DAMAGING WIND
   POTENTIAL SHOULD INCREASE AS HIGHER MOMENTUM ALOFT IS TRANSFERRED TO
   THE SURFACE.  STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
   POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES IN STRONGER CELLS WITHIN DEVELOPING
   LINE.  PERHAPS SOMEWHAT BETTER TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL EXIST WHERE
   AMBIENT VERTICAL VORTICITY IS ALREADY BECOMING MAXIMIZED...IN THE
   VICINITY OF DEEPENING SURFACE LOW...NEAR/EAST OF SIOUX FALLS THROUGH
   00Z.
   
   ..KERR.. 11/12/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MPX...DMX...FSD...
   
   43679748 44299686 44309545 43889477 42769386 42109349
   41309369 41069438 41949488 42719598

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2406
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0404 PM CST SAT NOV 12 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OK...NERN TX...AND SWRN MO/NWRN AR
   
   CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS
   
   VALID 122204Z - 130030Z
   
   VIS SAT IMAGERY INDICATES TWO AREAS OF ENHANCED CONVERGENCE OVER THE
   REGION WHICH MAY AID IN ISOLATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT 1-2
   HOURS. ATTM...THE OVERALL SVR THREAT APPEARS INSUFFICIENT FOR A WW
   THROUGH 00Z.
   
   SAT IMAGERY AND VISUAL INSPECTION INDICATES MODERATE CU OVER SERN
   OK...NEAR ADA. ADDITIONALLY...CONVERGENCE REMAINS MODEST ALONG
   DRYLINE OVER FAR NERN OK. GIVEN ONLY A FEW MORE HRS OF HEATING AND
   WEAKENING OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE DUE TO DRYLINE FCST TO BECOME
   STATIONARY...DEVELOPMENT OF TSTMS IN THESE AREAS AND ALONG THE REST
   OF THE DRYLINE REMAIN QUESTIONABLE THROUGH 00Z. HOWEVER...A
   SECONDARY UPPER TROUGH NOTED ON WV IMAGERY NOW MOVING INTO THE TX
   PANHANDLE SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN 00-03Z. DESPITE LOW
   LEVEL DIVERGENCE IN THE WAKE OF A 850 MB JET OVER MO...SUFFICIENT
   LOW LEVEL WAA/DRYLINE CONVERGENCE MAY ENSUE. IF LOW LEVEL
   CONVERGENCE/LIFT CAN BECOME STRONG ENOUGH...SVR CONVECTIVE
   DEVELOPMENT REMAINS POSSIBLE ALONG THE STATIONARY DRYLINE OVER ERN
   OK/NERN TX BETWEEN 00-03Z.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 11/12/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...FWD...OUN...
   
   36969540 35809623 34339700 33279748 32849723 32929619
   35249482 36709412 36969448

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2407
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0440 PM CST SAT NOV 12 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SD...MN...IA
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 858...
   
   VALID 122240Z - 122345Z
   
   CYCLIC SUPERCELLS WERE MOVING NEWD ACROSS CNTRL IA AT 40KT....AS
   WELL AS NWRN IA. ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THIS ACTIVITY REMAINS
   SUPPORTIVE FOR TORNADOES WITH LATEST DIAGNOSTIC DATA AND CELL
   MOTIONS RESULTING IN EFFECTIVE SRH AROUND 350 M2/S2.
   
   FARTHER NW...AREA ACROSS SERN SD INTO SWRN MN CONTINUES TO FAVOR
   STRONG UPWARD MOTION IN STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT. EFFECTIVE
   SHEAR IS SLIGHTLY WEAKER BENEATH UPPER TROUGH AND INTENSE STORMS
   WITH HAIL WILL SPREAD INTO SWRN MN OVER THE NEXT HOUR.
   
   ..CARBIN.. 11/12/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...
   
   40729208 40669397 43769722 44519713 44519310