Let the debate begin I'm sure everyone weighs in on this issue one way or the other.
Let's open the thread Global Warming ...Yes or No?
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Downdraft
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Let's open the thread Global Warming ...Yes or No?
Since the season is winding down or perhaps even over in the Atlantic let's get the global warming debate off and running. I personally believe that global warming is the reason for the increase in SST's thus the increase in hurricane activity. That being said I do not and never have believed that the consumption of fossil fuels or the abuse of aeresol accelerants contributes significantly to the global warming issue. As I've said before the average volcanic eruption tosses more sulphur dioxide and other green house gases into the atmosphere than man could ever think of. I do think that the cooling or heating of the earth is cyclic and because of that we have entered a period where the earth will be slightly warmer than what we are used to calling normal.
Let the debate begin I'm sure everyone weighs in on this issue one way or the other.
Let the debate begin I'm sure everyone weighs in on this issue one way or the other.
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Tampa Bay Hurricane
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IMO: Yes. Here's why I think yes:
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
My Articles for general public with some unfamiliar terms
and abbreviations defined:
SSTs = Sea Surface Temperatures... the higher the SSTs = the more numerous the hurricanes.
Shear = a force in the atmosphere that rips apart hurricanes.
IMO higher ssts would enhance ridge feedback mechanisms and thus
reduce shear, so higher ssts and reduced shear would allow for a
greater proportion of intense hurricanes. I am willing to hypothesize,
since these cycle shifts are quite abrupt (1994/1995 active cycle
an abrupt shift) that IF global warming is really playing a role here,
its consequences and impacts on hurricanes would manifest
themselves abruptly and considerably. It will take a few more
years of observation, inference, and analysis to truly ascertain
as to whether this is the case in the Atlantic Basin. It is important
to note, however, that the fact that other basins have not seen this
type of 2005-Atlantic ridiculously excessive activity at this point in time
should not lend itself to a refutation of global warming's impacts
for the future. IF global warming is to verify, its manifestations would
appear abruptly in other basins, not necessarily gradually. In the year
X for example, other basins may be quiet, but we cannot rule out
the possibility that X+1 or X+2 or X+3 years may evince manifestations
of an abrupt and sudden increase in storm activity and/or intensity that
could be precipitated by global warming.
Also consider that the record-shattering 2005 season has occurred
even with unfavorable conditions in the Cape Verde region, preventing
Cape Verde long-trackers. Imagine a year like 2005 without the
unfavorable Cape Verde conditions . We have had a
record season in almost every way, shattering almost every
record, despite heavy shear, dry air or other
unfavorable conditions in the eastern Atlantic. Although many
waves were tenacious enough to move further west and
develop despite these conditions, other waves were ripped apart.
Imagine if those other waves had developed. 2005's numbers
would have been even more mind-shocking.
Also note that many of the tropical waves this year have been
quite a bit more tenacious than waves in many previous
active years. It's almost as if some other force is strongly driving
these waves to persist despite heavy shear, dry air or other
unfavorable conditions.
More CO-2 = Warmer Global Temps = Warmer SSTs = Stronger
Hurricanes = Stronger Sinking Air Ridges (due to feedback
mechanisms) that reduce shear = More favorable environment
for hurricane formation and intensification
In actuality though I think human induced greenhouse gases = more
heat trapped = higher ssts = more co-2 in ocean = more co-2 yielded
from outgassing of co-2 in a hurricane = more co-2 back in the atmosphere again to continue the vicious cycle...
SSTs to remain high...More high pressure and less shear
due to hotter ssts and hotter temps promoting more
sinking air, the sinking air sets up as high pressure to
reduce shear...and hotter temps means the hot ridges
last well into late into the season with September-type
ridging likely in Oct/November of 2006 or a later year,
thus reducing shear and aiding in temperature gradient
contrast with lower basin pressures in Caribbean/GOM
which meteorologically speaking all equates to more
favorable activity well throughout 2006 or a later year.
Due to the warm SSTs and the dual feedback mechanism
that takes place between warm SSTs and ridging I expect
an early start to the season once SSTs are warm enough
to galvanize/promote sinking high pressure that in turn
aids in hurricane formation by inherent shear reduction.
These same feedback mechanism factors will allow activity
to continue through the latter part of the season, probably
past the traditional end date for the season. This may include
Cape Verde systems appearing until much later than normal
given the aforementioned dual feedback mechanism
enhancement that would galvanize powerful manifestation
of Atlantic Ridging.
The SST facets of Enhanced Ridging feedback mechanisms
would promote the development and rapid intensification of
very potent systems. The number of very powerful hurricanes
will also be a lot higher than normal due to this fact. A heated,
more unstable atmosphere, contrasting more intensely in terms
of pressure gradient with a very powerful high pressure ridge
driven by the enhanced riding feedback mechanism, along with
additional moisture content threshold increases and subsequent
rainfall intensity increases will help to drive more powerful
storms. Intense convection due to enhanced heat content will
lead to more rapid pressure drops and subsequently much
stronger storms.
Bottom Line: 2006 and/or a later year will likely be VERY ACTIVE/RECORD ACTIVE
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
My Articles for general public with some unfamiliar terms
and abbreviations defined:
SSTs = Sea Surface Temperatures... the higher the SSTs = the more numerous the hurricanes.
Shear = a force in the atmosphere that rips apart hurricanes.
IMO higher ssts would enhance ridge feedback mechanisms and thus
reduce shear, so higher ssts and reduced shear would allow for a
greater proportion of intense hurricanes. I am willing to hypothesize,
since these cycle shifts are quite abrupt (1994/1995 active cycle
an abrupt shift) that IF global warming is really playing a role here,
its consequences and impacts on hurricanes would manifest
themselves abruptly and considerably. It will take a few more
years of observation, inference, and analysis to truly ascertain
as to whether this is the case in the Atlantic Basin. It is important
to note, however, that the fact that other basins have not seen this
type of 2005-Atlantic ridiculously excessive activity at this point in time
should not lend itself to a refutation of global warming's impacts
for the future. IF global warming is to verify, its manifestations would
appear abruptly in other basins, not necessarily gradually. In the year
X for example, other basins may be quiet, but we cannot rule out
the possibility that X+1 or X+2 or X+3 years may evince manifestations
of an abrupt and sudden increase in storm activity and/or intensity that
could be precipitated by global warming.
Also consider that the record-shattering 2005 season has occurred
even with unfavorable conditions in the Cape Verde region, preventing
Cape Verde long-trackers. Imagine a year like 2005 without the
unfavorable Cape Verde conditions . We have had a
record season in almost every way, shattering almost every
record, despite heavy shear, dry air or other
unfavorable conditions in the eastern Atlantic. Although many
waves were tenacious enough to move further west and
develop despite these conditions, other waves were ripped apart.
Imagine if those other waves had developed. 2005's numbers
would have been even more mind-shocking.
Also note that many of the tropical waves this year have been
quite a bit more tenacious than waves in many previous
active years. It's almost as if some other force is strongly driving
these waves to persist despite heavy shear, dry air or other
unfavorable conditions.
More CO-2 = Warmer Global Temps = Warmer SSTs = Stronger
Hurricanes = Stronger Sinking Air Ridges (due to feedback
mechanisms) that reduce shear = More favorable environment
for hurricane formation and intensification
In actuality though I think human induced greenhouse gases = more
heat trapped = higher ssts = more co-2 in ocean = more co-2 yielded
from outgassing of co-2 in a hurricane = more co-2 back in the atmosphere again to continue the vicious cycle...
SSTs to remain high...More high pressure and less shear
due to hotter ssts and hotter temps promoting more
sinking air, the sinking air sets up as high pressure to
reduce shear...and hotter temps means the hot ridges
last well into late into the season with September-type
ridging likely in Oct/November of 2006 or a later year,
thus reducing shear and aiding in temperature gradient
contrast with lower basin pressures in Caribbean/GOM
which meteorologically speaking all equates to more
favorable activity well throughout 2006 or a later year.
Due to the warm SSTs and the dual feedback mechanism
that takes place between warm SSTs and ridging I expect
an early start to the season once SSTs are warm enough
to galvanize/promote sinking high pressure that in turn
aids in hurricane formation by inherent shear reduction.
These same feedback mechanism factors will allow activity
to continue through the latter part of the season, probably
past the traditional end date for the season. This may include
Cape Verde systems appearing until much later than normal
given the aforementioned dual feedback mechanism
enhancement that would galvanize powerful manifestation
of Atlantic Ridging.
The SST facets of Enhanced Ridging feedback mechanisms
would promote the development and rapid intensification of
very potent systems. The number of very powerful hurricanes
will also be a lot higher than normal due to this fact. A heated,
more unstable atmosphere, contrasting more intensely in terms
of pressure gradient with a very powerful high pressure ridge
driven by the enhanced riding feedback mechanism, along with
additional moisture content threshold increases and subsequent
rainfall intensity increases will help to drive more powerful
storms. Intense convection due to enhanced heat content will
lead to more rapid pressure drops and subsequently much
stronger storms.
Bottom Line: 2006 and/or a later year will likely be VERY ACTIVE/RECORD ACTIVE
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Tampa Bay Hurricane
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Here's some interesting information about the GFDL as it relates
to global warming and hotter SSTs:
http://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/~tk/glob_warm_hurr.html
to global warming and hotter SSTs:
http://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/~tk/glob_warm_hurr.html
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Tampa Bay Hurricane
- Category 5
- Posts: 5597
- Age: 37
- Joined: Fri Jul 22, 2005 7:54 pm
- Location: St. Petersburg, FL
Enhanced methane content of the atmosphere intensifies storms, regardless of whether or not its emission is caused by man or nature. Recall that prehistorically prior to the production of oxygen by prolific cyanobacteria the atmosphere was filled with methane, ammonia, and H-2 and other gases and had too much violent weather activity to support anything more than the bacteria....
The reduced nature of methane renders it unstable, and thus in any reaction can give off quite a bit of Gibbs Free energy, its instability renders its Delta (change in) Gibbs Free energy in a reaction negative, since the Product energy-reactant energy < 0 since the product has much less energy than the reactants. Methane has powerful capabilities.
The impacts of Methane are felt in ACTIVE CYCLONE DECADE CYCLES ONLY (WITH REGARDS TO HURRICANES)....During inactive periods like 1970-1990 the atmospheric conditions are so unfavorable for hurricane development that not even methane can stimulate the development through increased warming or etc..!
The tremendous amount of Gibbs free energy as indicated by Delta G in methane reactions is due to methane structure. Methane is heavily reduced (not oxidized at all) and reduced hydrocarbons contain intense energy potential. Methane when it reacts is highly exothermic, meaning it is capable of giving off a large amount of heat (thus the products of a reaction involving methane contain much less energy, as that energy was released in the form of heat, which explains why methane oxidation reactions are SPONTANEOUS, the heat availabe in methane's constituent hydrocarbons are just BEGGING TO BE RELEASED!)
Methane is not the only dangerous pollutant out there. But I place emphasis on it here because it is twenty times more potent than carbon dioxide in terms of implications for global warming.
It's energy from the breakdown of methane and other hydrocarbonic molecules that increases heat and energy available to power a storm. Although this is not the only factor, it certainly plays an important role in exacerbating the impacts of other deleterious hurricane-intensifying factors.
The reduced nature of methane renders it unstable, and thus in any reaction can give off quite a bit of Gibbs Free energy, its instability renders its Delta (change in) Gibbs Free energy in a reaction negative, since the Product energy-reactant energy < 0 since the product has much less energy than the reactants. Methane has powerful capabilities.
The impacts of Methane are felt in ACTIVE CYCLONE DECADE CYCLES ONLY (WITH REGARDS TO HURRICANES)....During inactive periods like 1970-1990 the atmospheric conditions are so unfavorable for hurricane development that not even methane can stimulate the development through increased warming or etc..!
The tremendous amount of Gibbs free energy as indicated by Delta G in methane reactions is due to methane structure. Methane is heavily reduced (not oxidized at all) and reduced hydrocarbons contain intense energy potential. Methane when it reacts is highly exothermic, meaning it is capable of giving off a large amount of heat (thus the products of a reaction involving methane contain much less energy, as that energy was released in the form of heat, which explains why methane oxidation reactions are SPONTANEOUS, the heat availabe in methane's constituent hydrocarbons are just BEGGING TO BE RELEASED!)
Methane is not the only dangerous pollutant out there. But I place emphasis on it here because it is twenty times more potent than carbon dioxide in terms of implications for global warming.
It's energy from the breakdown of methane and other hydrocarbonic molecules that increases heat and energy available to power a storm. Although this is not the only factor, it certainly plays an important role in exacerbating the impacts of other deleterious hurricane-intensifying factors.
Last edited by Tampa Bay Hurricane on Sat Nov 05, 2005 8:30 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Tampa Bay Hurricane
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- Joined: Fri Jul 22, 2005 7:54 pm
- Location: St. Petersburg, FL
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should
not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster
and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological
data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution
including storm2k.org For Official Information please
refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The contents for the following assertions and the warrants
that underscore it do not originate from official sources.
The following is a scientific theory that is analyzed
superficially by its author.
Yes. More and more active tropics until the ice caps melt
and plunge us into an ice age. Until then, I expect the
tropics to get worse and worse during the RESPECTIVE
active cycles. In passive cycles we will get some rest...
but until the end of this active cycle, I expect some
nasty seasons.
Speaking of global climatology, aren't there indications
of a major storm outbreak during a past period of
global warmth?
The earth lives on a homeostasis. Any additional heat whether
natural or not prompts earth's active atmosphere to favor
massive storm formation to mitigate the severity of excess heat.
CONCLUSION:
Hurricanes are Homeostatic Imperative
The irony of the theory is the prognostication that exorbitant
heating will at some point, upon reaching a critical polar
threshold, precipitate an ice age. The juxtaposition of
excess heat and excess cold lends itself to the heart of
the irony. The vehicle of this irony is a major climactic
event that human scientists would term a "cataclysm".
As for how we go into the ice age- It has something to do with
the shutting down of the Gulf Stream....
not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster
and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological
data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution
including storm2k.org For Official Information please
refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The contents for the following assertions and the warrants
that underscore it do not originate from official sources.
The following is a scientific theory that is analyzed
superficially by its author.
Yes. More and more active tropics until the ice caps melt
and plunge us into an ice age. Until then, I expect the
tropics to get worse and worse during the RESPECTIVE
active cycles. In passive cycles we will get some rest...
but until the end of this active cycle, I expect some
nasty seasons.
Speaking of global climatology, aren't there indications
of a major storm outbreak during a past period of
global warmth?
The earth lives on a homeostasis. Any additional heat whether
natural or not prompts earth's active atmosphere to favor
massive storm formation to mitigate the severity of excess heat.
CONCLUSION:
Hurricanes are Homeostatic Imperative
The irony of the theory is the prognostication that exorbitant
heating will at some point, upon reaching a critical polar
threshold, precipitate an ice age. The juxtaposition of
excess heat and excess cold lends itself to the heart of
the irony. The vehicle of this irony is a major climactic
event that human scientists would term a "cataclysm".
As for how we go into the ice age- It has something to do with
the shutting down of the Gulf Stream....
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southerngale
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Rainband
Global warming definately exists to one extent or another. Wether or not the major climatic events globally are due to this as a whole or in part remain to be seen and both sides have good arguments. It's all in what you believe and the FACTS presented by each side should be fairly weighed before a logical conclusion can be drawn 
This is MHO on this topic.
This is MHO on this topic.
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Cookiely
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southerngale wrote:If it was global warming, there'd be an increase in tropical activity in other basins (globally). Instead, activity has actually been on the decline in recent years. The increase in tropical storms is because the Atlantic is in an active cycle right now.
I agree with you. The term global implies the entire world. Why would only a small portion of the world be affected.
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HURAKAN
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Cookiely wrote:southerngale wrote:If it was global warming, there'd be an increase in tropical activity in other basins (globally). Instead, activity has actually been on the decline in recent years. The increase in tropical storms is because the Atlantic is in an active cycle right now.
I agree with you. The term global implies the entire world. Why would only a small portion of the world be affected.
That's what I always say. In the case of GLOBAL WARMING, that would mean that all the world is responding to this increase in global temperatures, and that's not happening. I agree that GLOBAL WARMING is occurring, there is no debate, but I can't blame GLOBAL WARMING entirely for is happening in the Atlantic Ocean. I believe in the cycle theory more than in GLOBAL WARMING being the one causing this increase in Atlantic activity.
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Jim Cantore
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thunderchief
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x-y-no
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We already had a good discussion going on this issue in this thread:
http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=78080
Several of the issues raised in this thread, such as volcanic activity as an alternative to anthropogenesis of GHGs, and also the issues of geographical distribution and steady numbers vs. increasing inensity have been extensively discussed there.
Don't know why we need another thread.
http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=78080
Several of the issues raised in this thread, such as volcanic activity as an alternative to anthropogenesis of GHGs, and also the issues of geographical distribution and steady numbers vs. increasing inensity have been extensively discussed there.
Don't know why we need another thread.
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gtalum
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Global warming is happeneing. It's impossible to reasonably deny it if you look at the evidence. The questions are:
1) How long has teh trend been going on?
2) How long will it continue?
3) What causes it?
4) What will its ultimate effects be?
We can't answer any of those questiosn with any certainty right now.
1) How long has teh trend been going on?
2) How long will it continue?
3) What causes it?
4) What will its ultimate effects be?
We can't answer any of those questiosn with any certainty right now.
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southerngale wrote:If it was global warming, there'd be an increase in tropical activity in other basins (globally). Instead, activity has actually been on the decline in recent years. The increase in tropical storms is because the Atlantic is in an active cycle right now.
Yep, that sounds about right to me. Also, the point made earlier about the volume of greenhouse gasses emitted by volcanoes makes a lot of sense. I myself have stated this apparently largely ignored fact on several occasions in various fora.
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Tampa Bay Hurricane
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thunderchief wrote:So let me get this right... global warming, the result of CO2 which we started pumping into the atmosphere 200 years ago, just happened to suddenly turn on last year, and only in the atlantic...
hmmmmmmmmmm
If you subscribe to threshold theory...a hypothetical notion on
my part...but oftentimes significant events throughout global
history have started suddenly...but predicting that this is happening
with hurricanes is theoretical only, nothing official...
But out of curiosity, haven't storm intensities increased in several basins
throughout the past 50 years?
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slartibartfast
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There have been quite a few estimates made as to the total amount of CO2 and the amounts are generally insignifigant in comparison to man made sources. One example is posted in the following link and estimates the total global volcanic output to be 110 million tons per year vs the 10 billion tons per year for manmade sources which equates to just over 1 percent. Not exactly a signifigant amount.
http://volcanology.geol.ucsb.edu/gas.htm
Mark
http://volcanology.geol.ucsb.edu/gas.htm
Mark
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curtadams
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Tampa Bay Hurricane wrote:thunderchief wrote:So let me get this right... global warming, the result of CO2 which we started pumping into the atmosphere 200 years ago, just happened to suddenly turn on last year, and only in the atlantic...
hmmmmmmmmmm
If you subscribe to threshold theory...a hypothetical notion on
my part...but oftentimes significant events throughout global
history have started suddenly...but predicting that this is happening
with hurricanes is theoretical only, nothing official...
But out of curiosity, haven't storm intensities increased in several basins
throughout the past 50 years?
Storm intensities HAVE increased, in all basins, over the last 50 years. There was just an article in Science on just that.
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Tampa Bay Hurricane
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curtadams wrote:Tampa Bay Hurricane wrote:thunderchief wrote:So let me get this right... global warming, the result of CO2 which we started pumping into the atmosphere 200 years ago, just happened to suddenly turn on last year, and only in the atlantic...
hmmmmmmmmmm
If you subscribe to threshold theory...a hypothetical notion on
my part...but oftentimes significant events throughout global
history have started suddenly...but predicting that this is happening
with hurricanes is theoretical only, nothing official...
But out of curiosity, haven't storm intensities increased in several basins
throughout the past 50 years?
Storm intensities HAVE increased, in all basins, over the last 50 years. There was just an article in Science on just that.
Thank you for the information
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