Pacific Northwest Weather

[R-Dub]

I'm here, just been extremely busy between visiting family in Minnesota, then just dealing with getting things in shape at the golf course for the fall. That and I have also been doing some intense agility training with my dog, hoping to start competing with him next year. Been pretty typical oct weather the last few weeks, hopefully we will get a nice wind storm soon. Haven't even had time to look at any weather maps or extended season forecasts yet, so I am kinda in the dark right now. Hopefully I can do some looking and contribute to the thread more soon.

[Brian_from_bellingham]

Snowwizzard has posted his thesis for why he thinks this will be a cold winter for the northwest. I will not copy and paste it, because it is too long. But, here is the link. I would be very interested in what you all think.

http://home.mindspring.com/~snoman2/winter.htm

And by the way, did you all see that the PDO is now at -0.46?

[weather girl]

Thank you, Brian. I've been looking forward to that!

[andrewr]

Anyone read the afternoon's NWS discussion? I don't know how they had this typo:

Short term...scattered showers tonight...the north Cascades and
west part of the north interior will get a likely pop...and that is
mainly where the radar has showers early this afternoon. Isolated
showers Thursday morning...a pscz may be winding down over Snohomish
Colorado...though I have not drawn anything much into the grids for that
possibility.

[Perturbance]

Anyone read the afternoon's NWS discussion? I don't know how they had this typo:

If you're reading from a place like Weather Underground (who changes the abbreviated, upper case text in to something us normal folk can read) they take CO and expand it to Colorado instead of county. Their Non-Expanded Version (with abbreviations) does show CO in all its uppercase glory.

Awhile back, before I realized they were doing that, I couldn't understand why the PDX office kept talking about Mounta Hood. It wasn't until I read the stock text from NWS did I realize WUnderground was (improperly) expanding MT. to Mounta.

[andrewr]

Oh okay, that makes sense. Thanks for clearing it up because it's the first time I've seen it.

[AnthonyC]

Not much to update...the weather's been very quiet considering the time of year.

Tuesday looks like a decent front for the entire PNW...steady rain, a little wind along the coast and possibly some higher elevation snowfall. Typical for the middle/end of October.

Latest GFS runs continue the idea of a zonal flow...no significant storms coming, but wet off and on.

All in all, the weather's been boring. It's the end of October...hopefully things will become more active. They should!!

Anthony

[R-Dub]

Lets get this thread fired back up!! Been a real fall like day with quite gusty South winds and some good rain this evening. Power has been flickering for the last few hours now. Finally fall weather!

[weather girl]

Hi R-Dub - I agree. Wish we could get some people to start posting over here again.

We had our coldest morning of the fall so far this year. It was 36 here in Salem. We're still fogged in. They're forecasting snow in Bend for Saturday morning. It'll be rain in the valley, but it's good news for the mountains if Bend is getting snow.

I think it looks like the Aleutian Low may be starting to set up a little bit. Would like to know what others think. Anybody out there?

[Brian_from_bellingham]

I see that the CPC is now backing off the warmer then normal temps, while still calling for a lot of precipitation. " THIS EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE RIDGE WOULD ALLOW NEGATIVE 500-HPA ANOMALIES ASSOCIATED WITH A MODERATE TROUGH CENTERED OFF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST TO EXTEND FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE NORTHWEST CONUS THAN WHAT IS DEPICTED BY THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN BASED SOLUTIONS . . . THE 0Z AND 6Z OPERATIONAL GFS SOLUTIONS ALSO SHOW A DRAMATIC SHIFT FOR THE WESTERN CONUS RELATIVE TO THEIR SOLUTIONS FROM YESTERDAY IN REPLACING MODERATELY STRONG RIDGING WITH A TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN ROCKIES." Also, Alaska is getting cold, that is a good sign for us. Hopefully this will start producing snow for the mountains.

[AnthonyC]

Since there's little activity on this site, I've moved over to The Old Farmer's Almanac.

Where's TT-SEA?! I miss the dude...I miss his accurate forecasts. He hasn't posted forever.

As for weather, things are finally getting active...tonight's system looks strong.

Decent rainfall and decent wind for places prone to the southeast sucker.

Beyond that, a zonal flow which is awesome for the mountains. Hopefully they can open by Thanksgiving this year!

Anthony

[arizonasooner]

I've been in Bellingham for the past week and it has been getting progressively wetter and colder...

Running is one of my hobbies and it has been so wet and cold after work I have been unable to coax myself out onto the trail at Lake Padden....

Brrrrr.

I'd take a 60 degree day now anytime.

Probably won't happen again until April.

[andrewr]

You probably won't see 60 in the next couple of weeks, but it is possible for it to happen during the winter. Most records have highs in the upper 50's and lower 60's, so don't give up hope yet!

[Brian_from_bellingham]

Arizonasooner, Lake Padden is getting pretty sloppy, mainly the open air side (I was there Saturday, it wasn't that bad, but only getting worse). Have you tried the Interurban trail? It is flat, and not nearly as muddy as Padden, and it has a canopy in spots so it is not as wet. Not as scenic as Padden, but this time of year, it is probably the best you can do.

[andrewr]

Stevens Pass picked up 6" of snow at the base and 8" at the summit as of early this morning. Also Mt. Baker picked up 24" over the weekend and will hopefully open up before Thanksgiving weekend (they say they need between 28-38 inches). Here's some pictures of Mt. Baker on October 29th:

http://www.mtbaker.us/snowreport/index.html

[arizonasooner]

Have you tried the Interurban trail?

I have not tried that yet.. My friend at the refinery says it is great, and and I will likely give it a go on my next trip up here. Padden was pretty messy this week with all the rain, but still was scenic as you said...



The loss of daylight savings time makes after-work workouts on a trail much more difficult... I need to travel earlier in the day next time so I can get here for a daylight run....

[andrewr]

Mt. Baker's base at Pan Dome is now up to 75", the most of any current ski area in the world according to snocountry.com! What a great start to the snow season. By the end of next week, some areas in the Cascades could have more snow than all of last year.

http://www.mtbaker.us/snowreport/index.html

[TT-SEA]

Hey guys... I am still here.

All is well in North Bend. Rainy and windy almost every day lately. Snow on the mountains all around.

Drove back from Spokane yesterday and hit Snoqualmie Pass at the worst of the storm. Snow coming down very hard and the roadway was covered in 6 inches of slush.

Pretty wild for being the first few days of November but its better than drought!!

Taking the kids sledding up at Snoqualmie Pass tomorrow as we wait for skiing to start.

[TT-SEA]

arizonasooner... how do you like Bellingham overall??

[R-Dub]

Hey TT! Good to see your still around. We finally have some weather to talk about again!