Hurricane Adaline Hypothetical Texas Scenario

[Anonymous]

Residents in Corpus Christ, TX awake on August 15th, to news of a new Tropical Depression, center 250 miles east-southeast of their city. The system grows into a Tropical Storm later that morning, newly christened Tropical Storm Adaline . The forecast has Adaline becoming a minimal 70 kt Category 1 hurricane before landfall, which is expected around 9am the next morning. Residents brush it off as "not a big deal." People are warned of what a Category 1 hurricane can do, and coastal areas go under evacuations...but few heed them. By 11pm that night, Adaline is upgraded to a 75 mph Category 1 hurricane, and is forecast to come ashore around 11am the next morning as an 85-90 mph hurricane. Residents begin to prepare slightly more, but Corpus Christ residents feel safe since the landfall line shows a hit near Aransas Pass. Most stay, and hunker down as they go to sleep, expecting some tropical storm force...and maybe some hurricane gusts late the next morning.

People wake up to a windy rainy picture at 6am on August 16th, they turn on Fox News, NBC, TWC, to get the latest on Hurricane Adaline, which should hit in about six hours. Alert Modes and haunting music open up each channel's intro to Hurricane Adaline. "Good morning, residents of the South Texas coast rushing to complete preperations for Hurricane Adaline, now a strong Category 4 hurricane packing winds of 150 mph". Hurricane Adaline has deepened from 985 mb to 935 mb in six hours, with winds increasing from 105 mph to 150 mph in the last two hours. Adaline has also sped up, now moving due west at 11 mph, only an hour and a half away from landfall in Corpus Christi, TX. At 8:15am, the eye of Hurricane Adaline crosses the coast making landfall just south of Mustang Beach with winds of 150 mph.

You know what happens next. Every hurricane is dangerous, and must never be taken lightly.

[krysof]

I'm Chris so I really don't want my name to be bad.

[quandary]

That unfortunately sounds increasingly likely as storms have been doing more and more of that recently. Fortunately, they tend to do that away from the coasts and weaken as they close in.

Now, at least we can be pretty sure that the name of the storm won't be Chris. Chris would occur far too early in the season, the way storms are popping up all over the place early in the season, for it to be an exploding major near the US.

Go down to M or so... or in the case of 2005... W and we see the same problem.

[f5]

my name is Chris to i'm praying that my named is not in the same category as Camille

[sma10]

ENOUGH with the worst case scenario, hypothetical landfalls.

This is at LEAST the 2nd or 3rd fantasy like this you've posted this season. We get the point!

[Anonymous]

ENOUGH with the worst case scenario, hypothetical landfalls.

This is at LEAST the 2nd or 3rd fantasy like this you've posted this season. We get the point!

First of all, please don't talk to me like this again. Secondly, they are not fantasies. They are hypothetical...kind of like mine earlier this year, that showed a Cat 5 into New Orleans....real farfetched.

[milankovitch]

Another area I'm concerned about in terms of a rapidly intensifying system would be the Keys.

[HURAKAN]

Are you referring to the 2006 Hurricane Season? Because next year we will have the name Chris.

[Scorpion]

Very good hypothesis. However, 8.3 mb/ hour sounds a little excessive to me.

[fasterdisaster]

Very good hypothesis. However, 8.3 mb/ hour sounds a little excessive to me.

Wilma: And 22 mb/hour is...?

[krysof]

Are you referring to the 2006 Hurricane Season? Because next year we will have the name Chris.

Yes, that name was also used several times going back to the 1980's
It became a weak hurricane during one of its uses. I think Chris could be a Dennis strength hurricane possibly unless it develops really early and depending where. If 2006 starts out as early as 2005, then the name probably won't be that bad. Usually the worst storms are of the letters I, F, K, J's are somtimes bad like Jeanne. F for Floyd and Fabian that pounded Bermuds. I for Isabel and Ivan. K for Kate and Katrina. Amazingle W was bad this year but its definetelly not normal to see that. Sometimes the A's are bad like Andrew of course and TS Allison. These next several years the first 3 or 4 will not be so bad if this early start to the season continues. The SSt's in the early stages are still low and the shear is relatively high for any rapid intensification.

[hicksta]

Alright... Mike. see anything for me nextyear! You scared me half to death this year lol

[TS Zack]

They would be waking-up a whole lot earlier than that. TS Force winds make some noise on your screens and windows.

[f5]

Aug 15-SEPT 15 is primetime for intense hurricanes based on an average year.this year is far from average who would have thougth a "W" storm in late october would become the most intense

[wxwatcher91]

great job Mike! these hypothetical situations are great for teaching people that basically any situation is possible with a hurricane and that all tropical cyclones, no matter the intensity, should be monitored closely and that people should follow evacuation orders.

We know from experience what category 1 hurricanes and even tropical storms can do and also how many ways they can suprise you.

These hypothetical situations are even better for areas that have not been hit recently, so that people in those areas will not let their guard down and will not forget how bad a tropical system can be.

[nequad]

The original post...in all honesty...is a waste of bandwidth.

There are two kinds of people who live in hurricane prone areas.

Those who always leave when a hurricane is threatening, no matter what the intensity may be, and those who never leave, no matter what the intensity may be.


At least that has been my life long experience living in a hurricane prone area.

I don't understand the mindset of those who want to predict the worst case scenario, just so they can be there that one time to say... "You should have listened to me. If you live on the coast you should always leave when a hurricane approaches, no matter if it's a CAT 1"


People who are seasoned vets of hurricane country are capable of making their own decisions when a storm threatens. These people know better than anyone the dangers they face. We don't need some kid from Ohio telling us these dangers that we all know first hand.

[Anonymous]

The original post...in all honesty...is a waste of bandwidth.

There are two kinds of people who live in hurricane prone areas.

Those who always leave when a hurricane is threatening, no matter what the intensity may be, and those who never leave, no matter what the intensity may be.


At least that has been my life long experience living in a hurricane prone area.

I don't understand the mindset of those who want to predict the worst case scenario, just so they can be there that one time to say... "You should have listened to me. If you live on the coast you should always leave when a hurricane approaches, no matter if it's a CAT 1"


People who are seasoned vets of hurricane country are capable of making their own decisions when a storm threatens. These people know better than anyone the dangers they face. We don't need some kid from Ohio telling us these dangers that we all know first hand.

Ok, Ill let Max Mayfield know that the next time I speak to him...same with Dr. Gray.

....Ill even give Vice President Cheney a second handshake for you

This kid from Ohio, is just trying to do his best to warn the public about the dangers of hurricanes. Since Alex, I and others have been on the air to thousands of listeners...to help THEM. Do you know what it's like for somebody to ask you, "Hey Mike, what should I do, the line of Cat 4 Frances is on my house"? Do you know? Kid...btw...Im 17 years old, and thats about ten years older than the way your acting.

[jimbo]

The original post...in all honesty...is a waste of bandwidth.

There are two kinds of people who live in hurricane prone areas.

Those who always leave when a hurricane is threatening, no matter what the intensity may be, and those who never leave, no matter what the intensity may be.


At least that has been my life long experience living in a hurricane prone area.

I don't understand the mindset of those who want to predict the worst case scenario, just so they can be there that one time to say... "You should have listened to me. If you live on the coast you should always leave when a hurricane approaches, no matter if it's a CAT 1"


People who are seasoned vets of hurricane country are capable of making their own decisions when a storm threatens. These people know better than anyone the dangers they face. We don't need some kid from Ohio telling us these dangers that we all know first hand.

Ok, Ill let Max Mayfield know that the next time I speak to him...same with Dr. Gray.

....Ill even give Vice President Cheney a second handshake for you

This kid from Ohio, is just trying to do his best to warn the public about the dangers of hurricanes. Since Alex, I and others have been on the air to thousands of listeners...to help THEM. Do you know what it's like for somebody to ask you, "Hey Mike, what should I do, the line of Cat 4 Frances is on my house"? Do you know? Kid...btw...Im 17 years old, and thats about ten years older than the way your acting.

Dying for a reply here.

[hicksta]

I asked mike for his advice when a cat 4 was beign pointed well south of me.. He told me that if rita hit around freeport my house would be underwater. i asked him the chances and he said its a fairly good chance. My family left and spent 27 hours in traffic.. Would i do it all over agian. Yes i would anyday. Mike Naso knows his stuff better than anyone around. He helps people and iv enjoyed his forcast and his talkshow on the internet..
Hes a great person and a great helper.

Derek

The original post...in all honesty...is a waste of bandwidth.

There are two kinds of people who live in hurricane prone areas.

Those who always leave when a hurricane is threatening, no matter what the intensity may be, and those who never leave, no matter what the intensity may be.


At least that has been my life long experience living in a hurricane prone area.

I don't understand the mindset of those who want to predict the worst case scenario, just so they can be there that one time to say... "You should have listened to me. If you live on the coast you should always leave when a hurricane approaches, no matter if it's a CAT 1"


People who are seasoned vets of hurricane country are capable of making their own decisions when a storm threatens. These people know better than anyone the dangers they face. We don't need some kid from Ohio telling us these dangers that we all know first hand.

Ok, Ill let Max Mayfield know that the next time I speak to him...same with Dr. Gray.

....Ill even give Vice President Cheney a second handshake for you

This kid from Ohio, is just trying to do his best to warn the public about the dangers of hurricanes. Since Alex, I and others have been on the air to thousands of listeners...to help THEM. Do you know what it's like for somebody to ask you, "Hey Mike, what should I do, the line of Cat 4 Frances is on my house"? Do you know? Kid...btw...Im 17 years old, and thats about ten years older than the way your acting.

[skysummit]

ENOUGH with the worst case scenario, hypothetical landfalls.

This is at LEAST the 2nd or 3rd fantasy like this you've posted this season. We get the point!

Cool it man. Floydbuster is a highly respectable poster around here, and most, including me, love to read his posts. After what happened this season, you actually still believe these are fantasies? Come on....

Mike has been RIGHT ON with the majority of his forecasts this season. I'll take his view over any pro met any day of the year...that's how much I respect what he has to say.