2005 Will be like no other season before IMHO.

[wxcrazytwo]

MY UNOFFICIAL AND UNQUALIFIED ANALYSIS...

Why I think this year will compare to 1933 and 1995, and 2004. This year has seen an unusually high number of developments from the western/eastern carib to the southern latitudes as far down as Honduras. Now that we are through with Dennis, we have TD#5 and possibly TD#6. As all the pro-mets have been saying, we have set a record for the most storms this early in the season, and the first major hurricane to develop in the GOM in July. As you all know the GOM is not the most likely place to have a major develop, but it has and I believe it will continue.

Anyhow, I am new at doing this sort of stuff, so please bear with me and let me know if I am incorrect in my analysis. Okay, we have extremely warm SST’S in the Atlantic, Carib and GOM, which is part of the elements making it conducive for good cane formation. As far as I know, shear is low and the environments are favorable for any possible development. I don’t think we have to wait until August and September to roll around, because we are seeing it unfold before our very own eyes. If anything, I believe the season has advanced a month, so August and September, are now July and August. What will foretell then the August and September will be very interesting, but I have a gut feeling the months (AUG-SEPT) will be hell twice over.

I think that Florida will be struck at least 4 times by canes. Why, because of the strong High (Bermuda High), the movement of TD# 5 and possibly TD#6, which may ride the ridge NW towards Florida. I just have a gut feeling that déjà vu for Florida. I also believe N.O. and Tampa will have its turn for a major soon. Time is not their friends right now, and as you know “Times Up.” I don’t know much about 1993 canes, but I believe they had 22, which we are about 2.5 weeks ahead of schedule. Well, that is my quasi analysis for this season. However, like 1995, which had its fair share of fish, I don’t think we will see that. We are already running at 100% landfalls and by the way it looks, we will two more making landfall.

Unqualified forecaster Alex

DISCLAIMER:
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

COMMENTS ALWAYS WELCOMED

[Steve]

Interesting post. But the energy supply (of heat) isn't unlimited. It's just a matter of time before the bulk of it is used up. IMHO, there might be another storm or two moving into the Gulf and we'll probably see a late season hybrid or two, but I don't see any way that a Cat 4 or Cat 5 could sustain itself except in the extreme SW Gulf. Obviously being only 3 weeks into summer, there's plenty of time for the old cauldron to boil. But with 4 for 4 GOM storms, it would seem likely that the paths of future storms (at least in the 1-2 month range) would be more likely toward the East Coast as well as fish-spinners (sorry Duff).

Steve (post IMHO)

[Ziplock]

perhaps the tracks of #5 and potential #6, if they develop, will indicate where and how the Bermuda High will settle in for the next several months.

There is a "theory" floating (I remember it from past years) that where goes the first storms of the season, so do follow the majority the rest of the season.

A quick glance at past year's spaghetti maps of all hurricane tracks for the year seems to support this. Sorry, no link. Some years, the pattern is such and such, and for the most part, the storms follow that pattern.

Hope this year turns into a "fish" year, however. But I really don't think it will.

Personally, I am sticking with "September, remember".
Worried

[patsmsg]

Well, I think most would agree with you say here for the most part. Don't get too far ahead of yourself though. TD#6 hasn't even formed yet, and who knows what will happen; Aug/Sep could be full of fish.

I like your analysis though. I think we are in for a heck of a year.

[NPR]

I just don't like the Tampa part.

[BayouVenteux]

...But with 4 for 4 GOM storms, it would seem likely that the paths of future storms (at least in the 1-2 month range) would be more likely toward the East Coast as well as fish-spinners (sorry Duff).

I agree w/you Steve. You've got to figure that the pattern will eventually progress into one where the Bermuda High's strength and orientation will dictate more storms moving up the southeast coast or becoming the aforementioned Atlantic fish-spinners. That isn't to say that the Gulf will become permanently shut-off from a CV long-tracker, but as in the oft-referred to record-setting 1933 analog (which if I recall correctly, also started off with a succession of W. Caribbean and Gulf systems), the SE U.S. coast will likely have several anxiety-filled weeks ahead as we progress into the heart of the '05 season.

[Patrick99]

Who knows? We could get into August and things could shut down until Labor Day.

I think the "mean old days" have returned, though - I think they've been here for the better part of a decade now. Low latitude systems, a lot of Caribbean, Gulf, Florida hits.

[whereverwx]

MY UNOFFICIAL AND UNQUALIFIED ANALYSIS...

Why I think this year will compare to 1933 and 1995, and 2004. This year has seen an unusually high number of developments from the western/eastern carib to the southern latitudes as far down as Honduras. Now that we are through with Dennis, we have TD#5 and possibly TD#6. As all the pro-mets have been saying, we have set a record for the most storms this early in the season, and the first major hurricane to develop in the GOM in July. As you all know the GOM is not the most likely place to have a major develop, but it has and I believe it will continue.

Anyhow, I am new at doing this sort of stuff, so please bear with me and let me know if I am incorrect in my analysis. Okay, we have extremely warm SST’S in the Atlantic, Carib and GOM, which is part of the elements making it conducive for good cane formation. As far as I know, shear is low and the environments are favorable for any possible development. I don’t think we have to wait until August and September to roll around, because we are seeing it unfold before our very own eyes. If anything, I believe the season has advanced a month, so August and September, are now July and August. What will foretell then the August and September will be very interesting, but I have a gut feeling the months (AUG-SEPT) will be hell twice over.

I think that Florida will be struck at least 4 times by canes. Why, because of the strong High (Bermuda High), the movement of TD# 5 and possibly TD#6, which may ride the ridge NW towards Florida. I just have a gut feeling that déjà vu for Florida. I also believe N.O. and Tampa will have its turn for a major soon. Time is not their friends right now, and as you know “Times Up.” I don’t know much about 1993 canes, but I believe they had 22, which we are about 2.5 weeks ahead of schedule. Well, that is my quasi analysis for this season. However, like 1995, which had its fair share of fish, I don’t think we will see that. We are already running at 100% landfalls and by the way it looks, we will two more making landfall.

Unqualified forecaster Alex

DISCLAIMER:
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

COMMENTS ALWAYS WELCOMED

Wow, excellent forecast!

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

WOW! You have AMAZED ME.

[hurricanefreak1988]

2005 will be like no other season before IMHO.

Heck, he nailed it in the title of the thread, before I could even read his post. It's been interesting to see some of this stuff from months ago that has turned out to be amazingly accurate.

[sponger]

A forecast Dr Gray would be proud of!

[NCHurricane]

That's amazing. Darn amazing. What's the lotto numbers for next week?

Chuck
http://www.nchurricane.com

[Ivanhater]

That's amazing. Darn amazing. What's the lotto numbers for next week?

Chuck
http://www.nchurricane.com

for real tell us!

[HURAKAN]

WE FOUND A REPLACEMENT FOR DR. GRAY! GOOD WORK AND KEEP IT UP!!!!!!

[wxcrazytwo]

Thanks guys. Who would have even thought this year would have been hellish??

[gatorcane]

I also believe N.O. and Tampa will have its turn for a major soon.

There is still one more piece that has yet to come true...

Tampa

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

I also believe N.O. and Tampa will have its turn for a major soon.

There is still one more piece that has yet to come true...

Tampa

GOSH Boca_Chris you still wish me dead don't you

[gatorcane]

well Tampa Bay Hurricane, I'm pretty confident you have escaped the 2005 barrage. But there is next year

[MGC]

Good call crazy. Tampa wiggled off the hook again...well, there is always next year.......MGC

[floridahurricaneguy]

Tampas luck has to eventually run out. lol Like some of you say, there is next year. We shall see.