Why do they issue Torndado Warnings when the eye lands

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tbstorm
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Why do they issue Torndado Warnings when the eye lands

#1 Postby tbstorm » Mon Oct 31, 2005 8:31 pm

I saw that the NWS issued torn. warnings when Wilma made landfall in Collier County.

I also remember they did the same thing when Dennis made landfall in the panhandle.

Is this something new they are doing, also why didnt they issue tornado warnings when the eye was moving over Broward/Palm Beach counties?
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Derek Ortt

#2 Postby Derek Ortt » Mon Oct 31, 2005 8:34 pm

most NWS offices do issue a tornado warning for the eye wall, so that people take the appropriate shelter.

Miami NWS is the only NWS that I know of that does not follow this practice
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#3 Postby f5 » Mon Oct 31, 2005 9:12 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:most NWS offices do issue a tornado warning for the eye wall, so that people take the appropriate shelter.

Miami NWS is the only NWS that I know of that does not follow this practice


i think the folks down there know the difference between an F-2 tornados and a CAT 3/4 eyewall
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#4 Postby WxGuy1 » Mon Oct 31, 2005 9:30 pm

The heard that the NWS admin is working on developing an "eyewall warning" for situations such as this. This type of warning would be used to help differentiate those areas likely to experience the strongest winds from those areas in the rest of the hurricane warning. Oftentimes, the hurricane warning area can be rather large, and it has been deemed appropriate to discriminate the 75-80mph winds from the >115 mph winds. In addition, there has been discussion regarding small-scale vortices associated with intense horizontal shear / vertical vorticity invof the eyewall.
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#5 Postby Derek Ortt » Mon Oct 31, 2005 10:19 pm

the other NWS know the difference between an eye wall and a tornado. The reason for the tornado warning is so that people treat the eye wall as a tornado

for the record, an eye wall warning is BS, since the winds in the right eye wall can be 40% greater than the winds in the left eye wall
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#6 Postby WxGuy1 » Mon Oct 31, 2005 10:44 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:for the record, an eye wall warning is BS, since the winds in the right eye wall can be 40% greater than the winds in the left eye wall


Yes, but even the left part of the eyewall can be considerably more intense than the majority of the winds experienced by the remainder of the hurricane warning area. For example, the Slidell NWSFO had a few gusts in the mid-130s (sustained winds were more in the 110mph range I believe) in Katrina's western eyewall. That part of the eyewall, while less intense than the area near Port Christian, etc, still had higher winds than non-eyewall locations. Of course, I assume the NWS will take forward motion into account when they issue such a warning, since a strong Cat 2 storm moving at 25mph will likely have higher winds outside the eyewall in the right part of the storm than the winds contained in the left part of eyewall. Most of Katrina's damage east of the eyewall in se MS was largely from the surge, with a relative lack of severe wind damage (as evidenced by the lack of inland structural damage).

Personally, I'm on the fence about it. Most of the time, it seems as though you lose power in the storm, so I'm not sure how you'd get the 'eyewall warning' anyway. If you prepared correctly for a major hurricane, I assume you're already in the safest place you can be, so knowing that you will experience the most intense winds probably doesn't do any good, since there's nothing more you can do (hopefully, assuming you prepared well). At the same time, it seems worthwhile to further define the winds expected in the relatively large areas that tend to be under a hurricane warning for a landfalling hurricane. Is it ever a bad idea to discriminate where the most intense winds are expected?
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#7 Postby TSmith274 » Mon Oct 31, 2005 11:24 pm

Isn't it very common for landfalling hurricanes to spawn tornadoes in it's right front quadrant outward up to 175 miles from the center? From what I've learned, these tornado warnings are, in fact, for tornadoes... not for the eyewall wind velocities expected. Figured the hurricane warning took care of that.
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#8 Postby WxGuy1 » Mon Oct 31, 2005 11:26 pm

TSmith274 wrote:Isn't it very common for landfalling hurricanes to spawn tornadoes in it's right front quadrant outward up to 175 miles from the center? From what I've learned, these tornado warnings are, in fact, for tornadoes... not for the eyewall wind velocities expected. Figured the hurricane warning took care of that.


We're not talking about tornado warnings for actual low-level mesocyclones (mini supercells, etc). You are correct in saying that many landfalling storms (and their remnant circulations the day or two after landfall) produce tornadoes, owing largely to supercells in the outer rainbands. This topic (or at least what the past few posts have been about) pertains to the issuance of tornado warnings for the eyewalls winds. Some landfalling hurricanes have had blanket tornado warnings issued for their eyewalls, with the text of the warning noting "destructive winds similar to that in a tornado are expected in the warned area"... In these cases, the tornado warnings weren't issued for the imminent threat for tornadoes, but rather for the threat of "tornado-like" winds.
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#9 Postby Sean in New Orleans » Tue Nov 01, 2005 12:51 am

They had so many tornadoes dropping in Metro New Orleans so fast for Hurricane Katrina, the best scenario would be to put up a tornado warning and leave it there for a couple of hours. Everyone should have been hunkered down for the worst, anyway, at that point.
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#10 Postby TSmith274 » Tue Nov 01, 2005 4:09 am

WxGuy1 wrote:
TSmith274 wrote:Isn't it very common for landfalling hurricanes to spawn tornadoes in it's right front quadrant outward up to 175 miles from the center? From what I've learned, these tornado warnings are, in fact, for tornadoes... not for the eyewall wind velocities expected. Figured the hurricane warning took care of that.


Some landfalling hurricanes have had blanket tornado warnings issued for their eyewalls, with the text of the warning noting "destructive winds similar to that in a tornado are expected in the warned area"... In these cases, the tornado warnings weren't issued for the imminent threat for tornadoes, but rather for the threat of "tornado-like" winds.


Really? I've never heard this. Do you have a link to a similar warning? Don't you think "Hurricane Warning" would suffice?
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#11 Postby brunota2003 » Tue Nov 01, 2005 6:27 am

WxGuy1 wrote:
Derek Ortt wrote:for the record, an eye wall warning is BS, since the winds in the right eye wall can be 40% greater than the winds in the left eye wall


Yes, but even the left part of the eyewall can be considerably more intense than the majority of the winds experienced by the remainder of the hurricane warning area. For example, the Slidell NWSFO had a few gusts in the mid-130s (sustained winds were more in the 110mph range I believe) in Katrina's western eyewall. That part of the eyewall, while less intense than the area near Port Christian, etc, still had higher winds than non-eyewall locations. Of course, I assume the NWS will take forward motion into account when they issue such a warning, since a strong Cat 2 storm moving at 25mph will likely have higher winds outside the eyewall in the right part of the storm than the winds contained in the left part of eyewall. Most of Katrina's damage east of the eyewall in se MS was largely from the surge, with a relative lack of severe wind damage (as evidenced by the lack of inland structural damage).

Personally, I'm on the fence about it. Most of the time, it seems as though you lose power in the storm, so I'm not sure how you'd get the 'eyewall warning' anyway. If you prepared correctly for a major hurricane, I assume you're already in the safest place you can be, so knowing that you will experience the most intense winds probably doesn't do any good, since there's nothing more you can do (hopefully, assuming you prepared well). At the same time, it seems worthwhile to further define the winds expected in the relatively large areas that tend to be under a hurricane warning for a landfalling hurricane. Is it ever a bad idea to discriminate where the most intense winds are expected?
Most people have a battery powered radio, or a NOAA Weather Radio, so there's where they can get it from... :D
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#12 Postby timNms » Tue Nov 01, 2005 6:47 am

NWS in Jackson, MS issued a tornado warning for our county when Katrina's eyewall began to move over us.

I think this is done because the areas under the warning are expected to be experiencing tornado like winds for a prolonged period of time. (and in our case, that is exactly what happened :eek: )
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#13 Postby Weatherfreak14 » Tue Nov 01, 2005 8:33 am

In simple terms that the winds will be as high as a strong tornado.
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#14 Postby bobbutts » Tue Nov 01, 2005 11:48 am

for the record, an eye wall warning is BS, since the winds in the right eye wall can be 40% greater than the winds in the left eye wall


I don't see why it's BS. I think the point here is to warn people in the warning area to take cover immediately (or get out the video camera and stand in the backyard). If the left front is weak enough not to warrant that type of warning then it could be excluded. I suppose then maybe it could be called extreme wind warning if they're not including the entire eyewall area or something along those lines. Just incorrect to file it under a tornado warning which is, like the name says, for tornadoes.

In short it seems like a very good warning product to me, exactly the kind of thing people should be warned about. By the time a storm landfalls the area has usually been under a hurricane warning is 24 hours, so an additional "nowcast" type forecast seems appropriate.
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#15 Postby vbhoutex » Tue Nov 01, 2005 12:27 pm

bobbutts wrote:
for the record, an eye wall warning is BS, since the winds in the right eye wall can be 40% greater than the winds in the left eye wall


I don't see why it's BS. I think the point here is to warn people in the warning area to take cover immediately (or get out the video camera and stand in the backyard). If the left front is weak enough not to warrant that type of warning then it could be excluded. I suppose then maybe it could be called extreme wind warning if they're not including the entire eyewall area or something along those lines. Just incorrect to file it under a tornado warning which is, like the name says, for tornadoes.

In short it seems like a very good warning product to me, exactly the kind of thing people should be warned about. By the time a storm landfalls the area has usually been under a hurricane warning is 24 hours, so an additional "nowcast" type forecast seems appropriate.


I agree with the reasoning, but like someone else asked, how will most hear the warning unless they are using battery powered weather radios(which mainly weather enthusiasts like ourselves have)? Maybe a "probable extreme wind warning" or something along those lines could be issued like within six hours of the probability of it happening. And yes I know what Charley did, etc. Unfortunately none of the hurricane forecasting will be "perfect" due tomother natures ficleness.
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#16 Postby Doc Seminole » Tue Nov 01, 2005 12:38 pm

I don't know, seems to me after the last 2 seasons, a hurricane warning is all that is needed. If folks don't heed that warning, I don't think they'll heed anything.

Doc Seminole 8-)
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#17 Postby WxGuy1 » Tue Nov 01, 2005 12:57 pm

TSmith274 wrote:Really? I've never heard this. Do you have a link to a similar warning? Don't you think "Hurricane Warning" would suffice?


Here's an example from Katrina:

ULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
749 AM CDT MON AUG 29 2005

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOBILE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR... THE EYEWALL OF HURRICANE KATRINA FOR...

GEORGE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI
STONE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI

* UNTIL 1000 AM CDT

* AT 743 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THE LEADING EDGE OF THE HURRICANE KATRINA EYEWALL APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF STONE AND GEORGE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.

* THE ONSET OF DESTRUCTIVE WINDS WITH GUSTS OF 100 TO 120 MPH WILL BEGIN SOON. THESE DESTRUCTIVE WINDS WILL PRODUCE WIND DAMAGE SIMILAR TO A TORNADO. SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND REMAIN IN YOUR SAFE SHELTER UNTIL THE EYEWALL PASSES. A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CDT MONDAY FOR SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.
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#18 Postby dhweather » Tue Nov 01, 2005 1:36 pm

A Tornado Warning is the most "immediate threat" severe weather
warning the NWS offers. Issuing that warning triggers NOAA weather radios and other systems that "watch" NWS data streams for
such events.

All in all, I think it's a good idea.
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#19 Postby tbstorm » Tue Nov 01, 2005 8:07 pm

I am all for putting up a warning when for where the eyewall makes landfall esp. if winds > 100 mph.

But, I think it's a little confusing to issue a tornado warning when there is no tornado. I think another specific warning would be warranted. Not sure about the name "Eyewall Warning" we might need something a little catchier.
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#20 Postby tbstorm » Tue Nov 01, 2005 8:10 pm

Acutally now that I think of it they could use the enhanced text they use for svr. tornadoes "THIS IS A PARTICULARY DANGEROUS SITUATION" but apply it to a new type of hurricane warning.
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