How Many People Think that a Monster Hurricane Will Hit

[SouthernWx]

Cat 5s dont have a alrge RMW.

Even Gilbert had an RMW of about 8NM. The rest was all cat 1-2 winds. Even the southern eye wall of Andrew only had marginal cat 3 conditions.

Very, very small areas (about 1-2 miles wide and from the coast to 1-2 miles) experience the strongest of winds

Derek, after Camille had been over land for 3-4 hours, sustained winds of 120 mph were recorded at Columbia, Mississippi (gusting to 140)...80 miles inland. Apparently the center of the eye passed nearly over the location, which tells me even stronger winds likely occurred just east of the Columbia observer's location. While Camille was indeed a small, compact hurricane....there is considerable evidence that cat-4/5 (131+ mph) sustained winds occurred along the coastline from Bay St Louis to just east of Gulfport....a swath some 25-30 miles wide, and along a narrower swath inland along/ east of the eye for perhaps 60 miles (using the Thornhill obs at Columbia, MS as a guide).

While I agree that in most circumstances, the radius of max winds is small in a cat-5, there are exceptions to the rule; it also doesn't take cat-5 sustained winds to devastate a coastal city. I don't know where you got the information regarding hurricane Gilbert RMW, but I've examined the 700 mb flight level data when it was in the 888-900 mb range, and strong cat-3 and cat-4 winds extended out quite a ways from the eye.

In fact, Dr Hugh Willoughby himself stated (re: Gilbert) while onboard a recon mission "you don't see many hurricanes like this..."a hurricane which can produce a swath of damage similar to a major tornado perhaps 40 miles wide". A swath of F3/F4 (160-215 mph gusts) tornado damage 40 miles across Dade and Broward counties of Florida would be catastrophic....so would similar intensity wind speeds in the Houston/Galveston area.

We've been very lucky that the three landfalling U.S. category 5 hurricanes since 1900 have all been extremely small and compact. Even so, there's no reason a mega-sized cat-5 monster the size of Isabel or Gilbert hasn't slammed into the U.S. coastline, and no reason it won't. Also, as large and intense cat-4 hurricanes (.e. 1900 Galveston, 1926 Miami, 1928 Palm Beach) have proven during the past century, it doesn't take a cat-5 to destroy cities and end many lives....I've already cited the likely impact of a "Hugo" sized cat-4 would have on southern Florida.

Take a look at this radar shot folks:
http://floridadisaster.org/hurricane_aw ... _large.gif

Check out the size of Hugo's eye and surrounding eyewall)...then try to imagine it crossing south Florida from south Dade to Naples....or Miami to Fort Myers Beach

PW

[Steve H.]

I vote we should have more announcements, stickies and polls

[Anonymous]

Keep in mind..if any year in the past ten is more favorable for a Cat 5 to hit the USA...it is 2005. Waters are nearly 92 degrees in the middle of the Gulf, and still warming!!!!

[cyclonaut]

You mean a monster such as this!!!!

That'll work but this image is as frightening as I have seen from a hurricane to date!

If that were to be right on my doorstep I would be going berserk.

[Brent]

Check out the size of Hugo's eye and surrounding eyewall)...then try to imagine it crossing south Florida from south Dade to Naples....or Miami to Fort Myers Beach

PW

That reminds me of Frances last year. Florida got SO lucky that weakened to a 2 before landfall and that it missed the Miami metro.

[Derek Ortt]

perry,

the 175-185 m.p.h. winds were right on the inner edge of the eye wall. Cat 3 winds may have extended by as much as 50-70NM from the center, as evidenced by the conditions at Cayman (which were no where near as bad as Ivan's but still very bad indeed)

Also, something interesting about Dade in Andrew. At my apt in South Miami (about 1 miles south of the old NHC), this area was in the borderline 3/4 conditions. MINIMAL DAMAGE. The Dade building codes were such then, and have since been strengthened that wind damage from upper cat 3 winds likely will not cause significant structural damage, except for the glass high rises. Tidal surges would have been about 10-12 feet had Andrew been a bit larger at Miami Beach (about 10 feet occurred in Coconut Grove on Biscayne Bay and Miami Beach is about 5-10 miles north of the Grove)

Now, one thing that would cause a lot of damage in Miami is the rainfall. We had about 40 million worth of damage from Frances, nearly all of it from the rain. We also had about 600-800 million from rain from Irene (the 99 version, not 2005... hopefully). A slow mvoing cat 4 would probably cause 2-3 billion just from flooding

[SouthernWx]

Derek, you have more confidence in Miami-Dade county building codes than I. In fact, a major concern of mine is that so much has been built in Miami and Miami Beach...and points northward to Broward county and into West Palm Beach since the last truly intense hurricane impacted that area (late 1940's to 1950).

There are so many structures (not to mention trees, telephone poles, billboards, etc) which have never been battle tested under actual major hurricane conditions....and until they are, no one can be sure just how well they'll withstand a 135, 145, or 155 mph sustained wind speed. You also mentioned the flooding and storm surge aspect....which would cause tremendous damage.

During the September 1926 hurricane (935 mb), storm surge heights ranged from 11.7' to 13.2' in the greater Miami-Miami Beach area, and completely innundated Miami Beach.
That type of storm surge flooding hasn't occurred on Miami Beach (or bayfront Miami) since....so just as with the wind, we aren't totally sure what tall buildings are truly sound, and which ones might be undermined by storms surge and extreme winds and come crashing down.

Also, in a large cat-4 in the mold of Hugo or Floyd, rainfall amounts would be unbelievable; especially if the hurricane moved across south Florida at 10 mph or less. Some areas of Broward and Palm Beach county recieved 40"+ during a 2-3 day period while the large, slow moving cat-4 September 1947 hurricane approached and crossed south Florida (I've seen photos of small boats traversing downtown Fort Lauderdale streets, water several feet deep as far as you can see).

PW

[caribepr]

Let's broaden our horizons shall we? Shall a major storm hit any of us in the line of potential danger? Hopefully not. A joy if all the exciting storms are fish and we can just enjoy the power of nature. Didn't think a reminder would be needed this early on but us living beyond the east coast line of the US mainland are here and we are ready and hoping for the best of this year, even while fascinated by the power of nature. Don't forget us, we don't forget you, from coast to rolling coast!

[Derek Ortt]

Perry,

I'm fairly confident about the codes based upon what survived cat 3 in Andrew. Upper 4 or 5? Forget about it. Cayman, which has even stricter codes than Miami was no match for those winds. But if Andrew would have been larger, the cat 3 winds in Mia likely would have done moderate damage, but the tidal surge would have devastated the immediate coastline.

Good point about the rain, which is the most deadly aspect of the cane. Seems like people here are finally getting the message regarding the rain problem, though only so much we can do to prevent significant flood damage

[sfwx]

If someone asked last year if two hurricanes would hit in almost the identical spot in a matter of a few weeks, we ALL would've laughed them off the board. I'm as interested in hurricane history and I love to speculate. But, sometimes things happen that we cannot explain. Wouldn't it be neat to see records that went back 1,000 - 5,000 - 0r 10,000 years? I just got back from the Keys and was thinking about how long it's been for them. Some of the residents I spoke to said that Ivan gave them a real scare. Can you imagine if some of those bridges were heavily damaged? The state just came out with new evacuation guidelines and I think it could still spell disaster on the roadways. I certainly would stay put again. The people who evacuated for Frances got caught up in a real mess. Good thing for many motorists that Frances was VERY slow.

Eric

[sfwx]

Here is the article about the evacuation plan in South Florida.

http://www.palmbeachpost.com/storm/cont ... _0617.html

Eric

[SouthernWx]

If someone asked last year if two hurricanes would hit in almost the identical spot in a matter of a few weeks, we ALL would've laughed them off the board. I'm as interested in hurricane history and I love to speculate. But, sometimes things happen that we cannot explain. Wouldn't it be neat to see records that went back 1,000 - 5,000 - 0r 10,000 years? I just got back from the Keys and was thinking about how long it's been for them.

Eric, you make an excellent point.
Folks sometimes say "this can't happen....that won't happen, because its never happened before".

Unfortunately, our verifiable period of record regarding hurricanes is very short. For southern Florida, it's fairly accurate for only about 110 yrs or so....I'll readily admit my intensity estimates for major hurricanes before 1890 in Florida are "best estimates" utilizing the available data, which is sadly sparse many times.

Can I tell you with certainty how strong the violent October 1846 hurricane was? Not really...I base the 160 mph winds on known storm surge at Key West and a 917 mb pressure report. Even the hurricane records from the 1920's and 1930's aren't 100% certain...not for me or HRD. We can't say whether the 1919 Keys hurricane was cat-4 or 5. No one knows for sure if the 27.43"/929 mb report from Palm Beach during the 1928 monster cane was the lowest pressure (was he in the center of the eye?).

You'd be surprised how they (NWS/ NOAA) finally ended up rating the 1935 Labor Day hurricane central pressure as 26.35"/892 mb. To begin with, the guy who recorded the record breaking barometric pressure was nearly killed....he was knocked unconscious and came too in top of a palm tree; presumably floated there by the storm surge; several family members were killed.. To say that storm report was made under duress is an understatement. Also, he didn't report a lowest observed pressure of 26.35"....his report was actually 26.40"/ 894 mb. After testing the "supposedly" same barometer (how in hell did he keep it with him during the time he was knocked out?), the Miami WBO said the true reading was 26.38"....it was the National Weather Bureau in Washington, D.C. which officially assigned the 26.35" pressure after extensive testing in a pressure chamber. It was weeks later when the official report finally came out, amid rampant rumors of cover up and scandal within the Weather Bureau (because so many folks blamed FDR's administration for all those WWI veterans who drowned.....red tape which delayed a rescue train that didn't arrive in time on Labor Day weekend).

Based on the known storm surge, it's entirely possibly the true central pressure was accurately 894-898 mb....which produces a 20' storm surge in that area (other nearby weather observers reported barometric pressure readings between 26.50-26.98" (897 to 913 mb)....but due to the extreme pressure gradient, a mile could have meant 30 mb or more difference....it was that tight.

Folks say "cat-5's" aren't possible in New England? We don't know what happened there 5000, 10,000, or 100,000 years ago...we do know a powerful hurricane smashed into Long Island near New York City in September 1821, and was reportedly more intense than the 1938 "Long Island Express"....likely a low end cat-4 hurricane into Long Island and New York City.....and only 184 yrs ago.

There could have been a hurricane more intense than Camille slam into the Gulf Coast in the 16th or 17th century...we'd have no idea. Maybe Audrey isn't the only cat-4 to smash the Gulf Coast in June...it's the only one we KNOW OF; the only one in the past 160 years....before that, who knows?

Just look at how major hurricanes have avoided the Georgia coast the past century....yet several major killer hurricanes slammed into Georgia between 1850 and 1898. That's why I caution folks who live in places such as Daytona Beach, Savannah Beach, or Atlantic City to never say never; never begin believing your area is completely safe from a major hurricane. This season could be typical, or could be the year the once in a 2000 yr hurricane devastates New Jersey or Maine; this could be the season a 130 mph monster finally smashes Georgia again.


I for one do not believe hurricane Gilbert was the peak intensity an Atlantic hurricane could reach; firmly believe a sub-880 mb hurricane is possible; even 875 mb wouldn't shock me someday. We don't honestly know what the once in a 1000 year Atlantic hurricane is....it could be as strong as Gilbert, or much stronger.

PW

[Radar]

As one could guess from my post I consider 'monster' to be the exclusive cat 5 club.

Hugo is historically significant because of where it made landfall. But, if it made landfall in Florida or the Gulf it would be less special (i.e. not top ten in strength).

Not to say that Hugo was a slouch; far from it. After all, at the time, Hugo was the most expensive hurricane ever. It certainly made an impression on me at the time.

But that impression, like the cost of damge record, was blown away by Andrew.

Ok, I dont mean to beat this to death but do you consider the "Monster exclusive Cat 5 club" to include only those hurricanes that hit land as a Cat 5? Because IF the "Exclusive Cat 5 Club" includes any hurricane to have reached Cat 5 status then Hugo surely fits the bill... For a shortlived period of time on Sept 15, 1989 Hugo was a Cat 5 with 160 mph winds, however he diminished before making landfall in Gaudeloupe and Monserrat.....

[clfenwi]

Ok, I dont mean to beat this to death but do you consider the "Monster exclusive Cat 5 club" to include only those hurricanes that hit land as a Cat 5? Because IF the "Exclusive Cat 5 Club" includes any hurricane to have reached Cat 5 status then Hugo surely fits the bill... For a shortlived period of time on Sept 15, 1989 Hugo was a Cat 5 with 160 mph winds, however he diminished before making landfall in Gaudeloupe and Monserrat.....

For the purpose of this poll, I am thinking in terms of landfall strength. Obviously, if we toss out strength at landfall then the club gets much larger (Ivan, Isabel, et al, get in).

In the ranking system that I've carried around in my head, Hugo is at the very top of the first tier of storms that I mentioned in my earlier post.

[whereverwx]

Wow, while searching, I never imagined I would see this topic. It’s just very scary to know that it did happen this year. Although she may have been a category 3 at landfall, she sure left her mark on our nation. We learned this season that it does not take a category 4 or 5 hurricane to be considered a monster.

[krysof]

"for one do not believe hurricane Gilbert was the peak intensity an Atlantic hurricane could reach; firmly believe a sub-880 mb hurricane is possible; even 875 mb wouldn't shock me someday. We don't honestly know what the once in a 1000 year Atlantic hurricane is....it could be as strong as Gilbert, or much stronger"

a quote from the posts above

You are right about what you have said, and Wilma proved to us that Gilbert is not as strong as it gets in the atlantic. Though the 882 Wilma reached was not sub 880, it was stronger than Gilbert and only came after 17 years. Imagine if the Wilma type storm formed a month earlier were the SST's were at their warmest. Then I bet Wilma could have gotten to the 870's maybe even near Tip pressure.

[arkess7]

Wasn't Katrina a monster hurricane? It sure seemed like it IMO.

[JtSmarts]

Wow, while searching, I never imagined I would see this topic. It’s just very scary to know that it did happen this year. Although she may have been a category 3 at landfall, she sure left her mark on our nation. We learned this season that it does not take a category 4 or 5 hurricane to be considered a monster.

I think Katrina has made a lot of people reevaluate their definition of what a "monster" hurricane is.

[f5]

Wow, while searching, I never imagined I would see this topic. It’s just very scary to know that it did happen this year. Although she may have been a category 3 at landfall, she sure left her mark on our nation. We learned this season that it does not take a category 4 or 5 hurricane to be considered a monster.

she made have been a 3 but she sure did a nice job of carrying a CAT 5 surge leveling towns like waveland ,bay st louis ,pass christian ect

[fasterdisaster]

Katrina was a Category 4 at LA landfall, not 3.

Unless you are talking about MS landfall.