Tropical Wave at Caribbean

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Post Reply
Message
Author
User avatar
El Nino
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 454
Age: 48
Joined: Sun Oct 16, 2005 3:18 pm
Location: Lima - Miraflores (Peru)
Contact:
Contact El Nino

#41 Postby El Nino » Wed Oct 26, 2005 10:16 am

And if this season continues until June ?


Ok, I'm leaving :rarrow:
0 likes   
Top
Brent
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 38264
Age: 37
Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
Contact:
Contact Brent

#42 Postby Brent » Wed Oct 26, 2005 10:18 am

11:30am TWO:

SQUALLY WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE WILL LIKELY SPREAD
OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES DURING LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. THERE ARE
NO SIGNS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION AT THIS TIME.
0 likes   
#neversummer
Top
Coredesat

#43 Postby Coredesat » Wed Oct 26, 2005 10:29 am

The NHC is a broken record with this one. :lol:
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
cjrciadt
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1616
Joined: Mon Aug 22, 2005 1:11 pm
Location: Kissimmee, FL

#44 Postby cjrciadt » Wed Oct 26, 2005 11:46 am

http://orca.rsmas.miami.edu/wximages/jet/1_05/anis.html
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
WxGuy1
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 538
Joined: Sat Oct 22, 2005 12:55 pm
Location: Oklahoma

#45 Postby WxGuy1 » Wed Oct 26, 2005 11:50 am



Huh? That animation is three weeks old...
0 likes   
Top
bigmike

#46 Postby bigmike » Wed Oct 26, 2005 11:50 am

Hmmm another 50 page plus post coming for a system that has little chance of getting into the GOM and is probably a 30% chance to hit the east coast. :roll:
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
cjrciadt
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1616
Joined: Mon Aug 22, 2005 1:11 pm
Location: Kissimmee, FL

#47 Postby cjrciadt » Wed Oct 26, 2005 11:51 am

WxGuy1 wrote:


Huh? That animation is three weeks old...

Oops, just noticed I dont why it is not updating. :oops:
http://www.cira.colostate.edu/RAMM/Rmsdsol/TROPICAL.html
0 likes   
Top
floridahurricaneguy
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 312
Joined: Tue Jul 19, 2005 10:37 pm
Location: Tampa,FL
Contact:
Contact floridahurricaneguy

#48 Postby floridahurricaneguy » Wed Oct 26, 2005 11:56 am

bigmike wrote:Hmmm another 50 page plus post coming for a system that has little chance of getting into the GOM and is probably a 30% chance to hit the east coast. :roll:


How do you know that? This system could have potential to develop. Also models make it look like possible gulf threat. Also massive ridging I am told over Atlantic.

Matt
0 likes   
Top
caneman

#49 Postby caneman » Wed Oct 26, 2005 11:56 am

bigmike wrote:Hmmm another 50 page plus post coming for a system that has little chance of getting into the GOM and is probably a 30% chance to hit the east coast. :roll:


Care to explain why?
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
fuzzyblow
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 87
Joined: Fri Sep 10, 2004 2:38 pm
Location: Montreal
Contact:
Contact fuzzyblow

#50 Postby fuzzyblow » Wed Oct 26, 2005 12:07 pm

El Nino wrote:And if this season continues until June ?


Ok, I'm leaving :rarrow:


Stay, stay, don' worry, we wil have a february break... 8-)
0 likes   
Top
Brent
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 38264
Age: 37
Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
Contact:
Contact Brent

#51 Postby Brent » Wed Oct 26, 2005 12:14 pm

bigmike wrote:Hmmm another 50 page plus post coming for a system that has little chance of getting into the GOM and is probably a 30% chance to hit the east coast. :roll:


I want your crystal ball. :P
0 likes   
#neversummer
Top
User avatar
El Nino
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 454
Age: 48
Joined: Sun Oct 16, 2005 3:18 pm
Location: Lima - Miraflores (Peru)
Contact:
Contact El Nino

#52 Postby El Nino » Wed Oct 26, 2005 12:19 pm

fuzzyblow wrote:
El Nino wrote:And if this season continues until June ?


Ok, I'm leaving :rarrow:


Stay, stay, don' worry, we wil have a february break... 8-)


Perfect, February is the most interesting winter month these last years ... :grrr:
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
fuzzyblow
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 87
Joined: Fri Sep 10, 2004 2:38 pm
Location: Montreal
Contact:
Contact fuzzyblow

#53 Postby fuzzyblow » Wed Oct 26, 2005 12:57 pm

El Nino wrote:
fuzzyblow wrote:
El Nino wrote:And if this season continues until June ?


Ok, I'm leaving :rarrow:


Stay, stay, don' worry, we wil have a february break... 8-)


Perfect, February is the most interesting winter month these last years ... :grrr:


Haha :wink:
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 148497
Age: 69
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

#54 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 26, 2005 1:01 pm

W ATLC WAVE IS ALONG 56W/57W S OF 17N MOVING W 10-15 KT WITH A
1010 MB LOW ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 12N. IT IS UNCERTAIN WHETHER
THE LOW IS CLOSED AT THE SURFACE BUT IT APPEARS THAT THERE IS A
WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL ROTATION WITH A PRESSURE MINIMUM AS
REPORTED BY A NEARBY BUOY. UPPER WINDS HAVE BECOME A LITTLE
MORE FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT AND SOME OF THE COMPUTER
MODELS HINT THAT SOMETHING COULD TRY TO FORM. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE FROM 8N-16N BETWEEN 52W-58W. SHOWERS/TSTMS
FROM THE WAVE ARE MOVING THROUGH BARBADOS AND SHOULD OVERSPREAD
THE REST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES LATE TONIGHT. AN INCREASED
CHANCE OF RAIN IS LIKELY FOR THE US VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO
RICO ON THU.

2 PM Discussion.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Top
User avatar
caribepr
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1794
Joined: Fri Sep 05, 2003 10:43 pm
Location: Culebra, PR 18.33 65.33

#55 Postby caribepr » Wed Oct 26, 2005 1:03 pm

bigmike wrote:Hmmm another 50 page plus post coming for a system that has little chance of getting into the GOM and is probably a 30% chance to hit the east coast. :roll:


Well, the very cool thing about this forum is this, you don't have to read any post you don't want to read.
For some of us, anything out there nearby has potential to seriously impact our lives and is watched until the need to watch no longer exists. For others, it is interest in the patterns of weather alone. Regardless - no interest, don't read! Wa La!
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
El Nino
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 454
Age: 48
Joined: Sun Oct 16, 2005 3:18 pm
Location: Lima - Miraflores (Peru)
Contact:
Contact El Nino

#56 Postby El Nino » Wed Oct 26, 2005 1:18 pm

cycloneye wrote:
THE REST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES LATE TONIGHT. AN INCREASED
CHANCE OF RAIN IS LIKELY FOR THE US VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO
RICO ON THU.


2 PM Discussion.


Ready for some animation Cycloneye ? :roll:
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 148497
Age: 69
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

#57 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 26, 2005 1:44 pm

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL912005) ON 20051026 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
051026 1800 051027 0600 051027 1800 051028 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 11.3N 57.3W 11.3N 59.7W 11.1N 62.3W 10.8N 65.1W
BAMM 11.3N 57.3W 11.7N 59.8W 12.0N 62.4W 12.2N 65.1W
A98E 11.3N 57.3W 11.7N 59.6W 11.9N 62.1W 11.6N 64.9W
LBAR 11.3N 57.3W 11.5N 59.6W 11.7N 62.2W 11.7N 65.1W
SHIP 20KTS 24KTS 31KTS 38KTS
DSHP 20KTS 24KTS 31KTS 38KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
051028 1800 051029 1800 051030 1800 051031 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 10.4N 67.7W 9.8N 72.7W 9.5N 76.7W 9.9N 80.6W
BAMM 12.5N 68.0W 13.3N 73.0W 14.3N 76.9W 15.6N 80.2W
A98E 11.2N 67.6W 11.5N 72.8W 11.4N 77.7W 11.0N 82.0W
LBAR 11.4N 68.1W 11.1N 73.3W 10.9N 76.8W 11.2N 79.0W
SHIP 45KTS 56KTS 66KTS 75KTS
DSHP 45KTS 56KTS 66KTS 75KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 11.3N LONCUR = 57.3W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 11KT
LATM12 = 10.9N LONM12 = 55.0W DIRM12 = 293DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 10.0N LONM24 = 53.4W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 0NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

18:00z Models.Wow look at the ship intensity 75 kts.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Top
User avatar
El Nino
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 454
Age: 48
Joined: Sun Oct 16, 2005 3:18 pm
Location: Lima - Miraflores (Peru)
Contact:
Contact El Nino

#58 Postby El Nino » Wed Oct 26, 2005 1:47 pm

Hmmm hurricane in 4 days ... Who will be the first to reach Beta then ?
0 likes   
Top
tampaflwx
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 134
Joined: Sun Oct 16, 2005 3:51 pm

#59 Postby tampaflwx » Wed Oct 26, 2005 2:07 pm

caribepr wrote:Wa La!


Voila?
0 likes   
Top
tampaflwx
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 134
Joined: Sun Oct 16, 2005 3:51 pm

#60 Postby tampaflwx » Wed Oct 26, 2005 2:09 pm

El Nino wrote:Hmmm hurricane in 4 days ... Who will be the first to reach Beta then ?


I call dibs on 90L.
0 likes   
Top
Post Reply

Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 75 guests