90L Invest SW Caribbean

[cycloneye]

http://tcweb.fnmoc.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home.cgi

Here we go again folks.

[cjrciadt]

http://tcweb.fnmoc.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home.cgi

Here we go again folks.

Ummm that was quick, I thought maybe an invest by next morning.

[tampaflwx]

check out the banding features, i wouldn't be surprised if this thing is a depression by tomorrow morning!

[dixiebreeze]

http://tcweb.fnmoc.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home.cgi

Here we go again folks.

Just saw that Luis -- you're quick! Here is the Dvorak Info:

25/2345 UTC 10.4N 80.9W TOO WEAK 90 -- Atlantic Ocean

[rockyman]

First model run (0z):



WHXX01 KWBC 260054
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

.....THE FOLLOWING IS A TEST MESSAGE.....

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL902005) ON 20051026 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
051026 0000 051026 1200 051027 0000 051027 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 10.5N 80.2W 10.6N 81.4W 11.5N 82.3W 12.9N 82.9W
BAMM 10.5N 80.2W 10.8N 81.6W 11.7N 82.6W 12.7N 83.4W
A98E 10.5N 80.2W 10.5N 80.6W 10.7N 81.5W 11.1N 82.5W
LBAR 10.5N 80.2W 11.1N 81.1W 12.5N 81.9W 14.6N 82.7W
SHIP 25KTS 32KTS 39KTS 46KTS
DSHP 25KTS 32KTS 39KTS 46KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
051028 0000 051029 0000 051030 0000 051031 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 14.2N 83.4W 16.3N 84.6W 16.9N 85.5W 16.8N 87.6W
BAMM 13.6N 84.0W 14.8N 85.5W 14.5N 86.9W 13.6N 89.5W
A98E 11.7N 83.7W 11.8N 86.9W 11.3N 90.6W 10.2N 94.8W
LBAR 17.0N 83.2W 22.0N 81.3W 27.1N 75.0W 30.9N 63.4W
SHIP 51KTS 57KTS 59KTS 54KTS
DSHP 35KTS 28KTS 27KTS 27KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 10.5N LONCUR = 80.2W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 3KT
LATM12 = 10.5N LONM12 = 78.8W DIRM12 = 270DEG SPDM12 = 9KT
LATM24 = 10.5N LONM24 = 77.0W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 25NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

.....THE ABOVE HAS BEEN A TEST MESSAGE.....

[wxmann_91]

Interesting, situation looks similar to Katrina 1999 where it ran out of time before hitting Central America.

[WindRunner]

Bwaahhhh, I knew this was coming, yet I browsed off anyway.


It's looking OK right now, it was better earlier:

[tampaflwx]

I think it will stall out for a while down there in the SW caribbean because there is a lot of shear above it, and, well, these things seem to know how to evade certain death.

i posted this in the SW caribbean development thread but now that it is an invest, the image belongs here.... just a quick delineation of the banding features that i created...



http://s4m.us/uploads/4be2d1601c.gif

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

ok models, no being wishy washy. and no taking forever whatever your name is storm....
just take a hard turn right into central america so we can have a fun halloween!

[Brent]

[tampaflwx]

wouldn't that require a hard turn left?

[johngaltfla]

Just crap.

I can not believe this. I was joking about TS Epsilon on Christmas Eve.

Heck with that, we could have Epsilon for Thanksgiving.

[Ivanhater]

well, here we go again

[tampaflwx]

But before that, Beta for Halloween.

[Brent]

wouldn't that require a hard turn left?

The initial motion is due west at 5-6 mph.

[cycloneye]

I dont see this thread with 268 pages as the Wilmas one.

[Brent]

I dont see this thread with 268 pages as the Wilmas one.

As long as it's well-behaved and leaves the U.S. alone it won't be.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

i meant go right into land ... like take the direct path... not directional "right" vs. left

TAKE A HARD LEFT!!!....HARD LEFT!!! ....I SAID A HARD LEFT!!!!


please!

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

This is unreal...Beta?? I thought I would never see a season
like this in my lifetime...I said that in 2004...but then 2005 happened
So that's two once-in-a-lifetime years in a row...

That man who proposed that hurricane cycles may be embedded
in larger 1500-year cycles and that we are now exiting the 1500 year
lull and going into the 1500 year super-active cycle may have been on to
something. Not too much evidence of this at this point...but the next
several decades will tell...

[tampaflwx]

well it is going due west as of now