Hurricane Wilma - Cat. 5

SamSagnella · #5301 Postby **SamSagnella** » Mon Oct 24, 2005 2:14 am

I'm concerned about whatever area is in that little red oval I put over the map. With a prolonged period of Sly winds and a concave coastline, the surge should be maximized in that area.

inotherwords · #5302 Postby **inotherwords** » Mon Oct 24, 2005 2:15 am

FunkMasterB wrote:
Naples/Ft. Myers area is not relatively unpopulated.

Yes, but Wilma appears to be going south of there, no? They haven't dodged the bullet yet, but at least it doesn't appear that they will be to the south, which is where the greatest wind and surge will be.

I hope I haven't spoken too soon, of course.

The windfield of this storm is huge and with the increased intensity I'm sure they will be hit very hard. And don't forget the enormous metro area on the other side of the state.

#5303 Postby **WxGuy1** » Mon Oct 24, 2005 2:15 am

DLI2k5 wrote:How are the winds just measured sustained at 120mph when they got a reading of 135knts? Are we seeing readings that the recon plane got just before the NHC had a chance to put this in the latest advisory?

No, in fact the place turned around to sample it again before the advisory came out. My hunch is that they don't think the standard surface wind reduction is valid now. Instead of the standard 10% reduction, I think they feel it's more like 15% right now with Wilma. The on-board meteorologists can make this estimation, so we shouldn't be too quick to jump to conclusions until we can get some comments (perhaps in a Vortex data message).

mtm4319 · #5304 Postby **mtm4319** » Mon Oct 24, 2005 2:15 am

DLI2k5 wrote:How are the winds just measured sustained at 120mph when they got a reading of 135knts? Are we seeing readings that the recon plane got just before the NHC had a chance to put this in the latest advisory?

The first one (with 130-knot flight level winds) was reported at 2:09 AM EDT. Plenty enough time for NHC to get the data, unless they wanted it to be verified.

fuzzyblow · #5305 Postby **fuzzyblow** » Mon Oct 24, 2005 2:16 am

FunkMasterB wrote:Which graphic are you guys seeing convection firing on the east side? The one I'm looking at has lots of stuff building on the west side, less on the east side.

Smal spot of convection I must say,,, starting... :wink:

FunkMasterB · #5306 Postby **FunkMasterB** » Mon Oct 24, 2005 2:16 am

It does not matter with this storm if the eye hits u a little to the south or north your going to get her eyewall and the western eyewall now might be the worst before its over with.

That might be true in regards to wind and rain, but not in regards to surge. Storm surge will be almost completely limited to south of the eye. I'd much rather be just north of the eye than just south, especially if I was near the beach (of course, no one near the beach should be riding this one out, but we know there are lots of people who are).

#5307 Postby **WxGuy1** » Mon Oct 24, 2005 2:16 am

The eye seems to be filling and becoming less circular in the past 30 minutes.

There may be some dry low-level being ingested into the storm now, particularly on the west side. The IR images would show cold clouds tops still in the early stages of this, as may be the case now.

#5308 Postby **sponger** » Mon Oct 24, 2005 2:17 am

jpigott wrote:
If that 135kt wind is verified and this thing isn't upgraded Evil we have possibly an exploding hurricane right off FL SW shore, all FL SE metro areas are going to be severely affected and we got Pasch playing conservative Rolling Eyes

I agree mad evil There was two sets of cat4 winds. First one with 4 obs showing it...Its pretty hard to believe they would be all wrong!

Wont make much difference in the middle of the night. They can always issue a special statement if need be but all preparations are finished.

#5309 Postby **deltadog03** » Mon Oct 24, 2005 2:17 am

i still think they are awaiting a VDM

inotherwords · #5310 Postby **inotherwords** » Mon Oct 24, 2005 2:17 am

Winds picking up here (duh...just realized how dumb that sounded. Of course they are.)

Sorry gang, I'm just nervously waiting to see what this one brings.

DLI2k5 · #5311 Postby **DLI2k5** » Mon Oct 24, 2005 2:19 am

I wonder if it's a case of the NHC saving face and trying to keep what they had originally forecasted to be a strong Cat 2 or in this case a Cat 3.

SamSagnella · #5312 Postby **SamSagnella** » Mon Oct 24, 2005 2:19 am

Anyone else notice that cool 'ripple' thing in the inner portion of the SErn eyewall, and how it was co-located with the 130/135kt wind reports...just something interesting to note in the last 1/2 hr.

DLI2k5 · #5313 Postby **DLI2k5** » Mon Oct 24, 2005 2:20 am

I wonder if it's a case of the NHC saving face and trying to keep what they had originally forecasted to be a strong Cat 2 or in this case a Cat 3.

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #5314 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Mon Oct 24, 2005 2:20 am

DLI2k5 wrote:I wonder if it's a case of the NHC saving face and trying to keep what they had originally forecasted to be a strong Cat 2 or in this case a Cat 3.

Sure would not suprize me at all :grrr:

#5315 Postby **Tertius** » Mon Oct 24, 2005 2:22 am

SamSagnella wrote:I'm concerned about whatever area is in that little red oval I put over the map. With a prolonged period of Sly winds and a concave coastline, the surge should be maximized in that area.

There isn't much exactly there in the oval. Everglades City is there but IIRC it has a population of only about 500. South and east of there is straight up swamp, hardly any residents. Just north is Naples, which has a lot more people in it. Given the wind swath size I don't think it means too much to be 40 miles from the dead center really. All we can do is hope it passes as far south of Naples as possible.

Of course that would put a bullseye on Miami and Ft Lauderdale. Not really any better.

SamSagnella · #5316 Postby **SamSagnella** » Mon Oct 24, 2005 2:25 am

DLI2k5 wrote:I wonder if it's a case of the NHC saving face and trying to keep what they had originally forecasted to be a strong Cat 2 or in this case a Cat 3.

The NHC are the first to acknowledge a lack of skill in intensity forecasting -- the last thing they would do is intentionally underreport the advisory intensity of a landfalling major hurricane...preposterous.

#5317 Postby **curtadams** » Mon Oct 24, 2005 2:26 am

SamSagnella wrote:Anyone else notice that cool 'ripple' thing in the inner portion of the SErn eyewall, and how it was co-located with the 130/135kt wind reports...just something interesting to note in the last 1/2 hr.

Is that the outward bulge of green from the eye to the ESE?

#5318 Postby **deltadog03** » Mon Oct 24, 2005 2:26 am

ok, this is what bothers me....the eastern eye wall is now showing some VERY deep convection firing up....wow, she is amazing

#5319 Postby **WxGuy1** » Mon Oct 24, 2005 2:27 am

I agree... The surface pressure does not typically support a Cat 4, though the fast forward motion is enhancing the ground-relative winds. They are probably waiting on more obs (another plane?) or waiting for the pressure to drop a bit before jumping on the upgrade.

#5320 Postby **THead** » Mon Oct 24, 2005 2:27 am

WxGuy1 wrote:The eye seems to be filling and becoming less circular in the past 30 minutes.

There may be some dry low-level being ingested into the storm now, particularly on the west side. The IR images would show cold clouds tops still in the early stages of this, as may be the case now.

It has been cycling like that all day through this what is turning out to be steady intensification.

Hurricane Wilma - Cat. 5

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