deltadog03 wrote:convection is starting to to blow up on the eastern eye wall....deep Convection is blowing up....
western maybe?
Hurricane Wilma - Cat. 5
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inotherwords
- Category 2
- Posts: 773
- Joined: Mon Aug 30, 2004 9:04 pm
- Location: Nokomis, FL
FunkMasterB wrote:Sorry for anyone in the path of this thing, but thankfully it looks like it will come ashore in a relatively unpopulated area. This thing goes just north of Tampa, we're taking a major disaster considering how quickly and unexpectedly this thing strengthened. Lots of reports of people not taking this one seriously.
Naples/Ft. Myers area is not relatively unpopulated.
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Hurricane Wilma Intermediate Advisory Number 35b
Statement as of 3:00 am EDT on October 24, 2005
...Wilma slightly stronger...headed for the southwest coast of
Florida...
a Hurricane Warning remains in effect for all of the Florida
Keys... including the Dry Tortugas and Florida Bay...along the
Florida West Coast from Longboat Key southward... and along the
Florida East Coast from Titusville southward... including Lake
Okeechobee.
A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect along the Florida West
Coast north of Longboat Key to Steinhatchee river...and along the
Florida East Coast north of Titusville to St. Augustine.
A tropical storm watch remains in effect along the northeast coast
of Florida from north of St. Augustine to Fernandina Beach.
A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for the Cuban provinces of
Ciudad de la Habana...la Habana...and Pinar del Rio. A Tropical
Storm Warning is in effect for the Isle of Youth. A Hurricane
Watch remains in effect for the province of Matanzas. These warnings
and watches will likely be later this morning.
A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for the northwestern
Bahamas...including the Abacos...Andros Island...Berry Islands...
Bimini...Eleuthera...Grand Bahama Island...and New Providence.
For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.
The previous position estimate was a little too far to the east.
At 3 am EDT...0700z...the large eye of Hurricane Wilma was
located near latitude 25.1 north... longitude 82.8 west or about
75 miles west-northwest of Key West Florida and about 95 miles
southwest of Naples Florida.
Wilma is moving toward the northeast near 20 mph... and a continued
increase in forward speed is expected during the next 24 hours. On
this track the center will make landfall along the southwestern
coast of the Florida Peninsula later this morning. However...this
is a large hurricane and wind gusts to hurricane force have already
spread over portions of the lower Florida Keys. The eastern
portion of the eyewall... accompanied by the strongest winds...
will reach the southwestern coast of Florida about 2 hours before
the center of the large eye makes landfall.
Maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph...with higher gusts. Wilma
is a category three hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale. No
significant change in strength is expected until landfall. Some
weakening is likely as Wilma crosses the southern Florida Peninsula
today.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 85 miles from the
center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 230 miles. A wind gust to 76 mph was recently reported at Key
West.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 954 mb...28.17 inches.
Storm surge flooding of 9 to 17 ft above normal tide levels is
possible along the southwest Florida coast near and to the
south of where the center of Wilma makes landfall. Storm surge
flooding of 5 to 8 ft above normal is possible in the Florida Keys
and Florida Bay... as well as in Lake Okeechobee. Storm surge
flooding of 2 to 4 feet is possible along the extreme southeastern
coast of Florida.
Wilma may produce additional rainfall accumulations of 5 to 10
inches through today across portions of western Cuba. Rainfall
across southern Florida and portions of central Florida...
including the Florida Keys is expected to be 4 to 8 inches... with
isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches possible. Rainfall totals of
2 to 4 inches will be possible over portions of the northwest
Bahamas.
Large swells generated by Wilma will continue to affect portions of
the northeastern Gulf Coast from the Florida Keys northward today.
Some tornadoes are possible over portions of the central and
southern Florida Peninsula and the Florida Keys this morning.
Repeating the 3 am EDT position...25.1 N... 82.8 W. Movement
toward...northeast near 20 mph. Maximum sustained winds...120 mph.
Minimum central pressure... 954 mb.
The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at
5 am EDT.
Forecaster Pasch
$$
Statement as of 3:00 am EDT on October 24, 2005
...Wilma slightly stronger...headed for the southwest coast of
Florida...
a Hurricane Warning remains in effect for all of the Florida
Keys... including the Dry Tortugas and Florida Bay...along the
Florida West Coast from Longboat Key southward... and along the
Florida East Coast from Titusville southward... including Lake
Okeechobee.
A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect along the Florida West
Coast north of Longboat Key to Steinhatchee river...and along the
Florida East Coast north of Titusville to St. Augustine.
A tropical storm watch remains in effect along the northeast coast
of Florida from north of St. Augustine to Fernandina Beach.
A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for the Cuban provinces of
Ciudad de la Habana...la Habana...and Pinar del Rio. A Tropical
Storm Warning is in effect for the Isle of Youth. A Hurricane
Watch remains in effect for the province of Matanzas. These warnings
and watches will likely be later this morning.
A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for the northwestern
Bahamas...including the Abacos...Andros Island...Berry Islands...
Bimini...Eleuthera...Grand Bahama Island...and New Providence.
For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.
The previous position estimate was a little too far to the east.
At 3 am EDT...0700z...the large eye of Hurricane Wilma was
located near latitude 25.1 north... longitude 82.8 west or about
75 miles west-northwest of Key West Florida and about 95 miles
southwest of Naples Florida.
Wilma is moving toward the northeast near 20 mph... and a continued
increase in forward speed is expected during the next 24 hours. On
this track the center will make landfall along the southwestern
coast of the Florida Peninsula later this morning. However...this
is a large hurricane and wind gusts to hurricane force have already
spread over portions of the lower Florida Keys. The eastern
portion of the eyewall... accompanied by the strongest winds...
will reach the southwestern coast of Florida about 2 hours before
the center of the large eye makes landfall.
Maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph...with higher gusts. Wilma
is a category three hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale. No
significant change in strength is expected until landfall. Some
weakening is likely as Wilma crosses the southern Florida Peninsula
today.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 85 miles from the
center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 230 miles. A wind gust to 76 mph was recently reported at Key
West.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 954 mb...28.17 inches.
Storm surge flooding of 9 to 17 ft above normal tide levels is
possible along the southwest Florida coast near and to the
south of where the center of Wilma makes landfall. Storm surge
flooding of 5 to 8 ft above normal is possible in the Florida Keys
and Florida Bay... as well as in Lake Okeechobee. Storm surge
flooding of 2 to 4 feet is possible along the extreme southeastern
coast of Florida.
Wilma may produce additional rainfall accumulations of 5 to 10
inches through today across portions of western Cuba. Rainfall
across southern Florida and portions of central Florida...
including the Florida Keys is expected to be 4 to 8 inches... with
isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches possible. Rainfall totals of
2 to 4 inches will be possible over portions of the northwest
Bahamas.
Large swells generated by Wilma will continue to affect portions of
the northeastern Gulf Coast from the Florida Keys northward today.
Some tornadoes are possible over portions of the central and
southern Florida Peninsula and the Florida Keys this morning.
Repeating the 3 am EDT position...25.1 N... 82.8 W. Movement
toward...northeast near 20 mph. Maximum sustained winds...120 mph.
Minimum central pressure... 954 mb.
The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at
5 am EDT.
Forecaster Pasch
$$
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markymark8
- Tropical Storm
- Posts: 111
- Joined: Sat Oct 08, 2005 11:57 am
- Location: North Carolina
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FlaNativeMom
- Tropical Low
- Posts: 19
- Joined: Sat Oct 22, 2005 10:39 am
- Location: Lakeland, Polk County FL
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FunkMasterB
- Tropical Depression
- Posts: 96
- Joined: Tue Sep 20, 2005 2:24 am
Naples/Ft. Myers area is not relatively unpopulated.
Yes, but Wilma appears to be going south of there, no? They haven't dodged the bullet yet, but at least it doesn't appear that they will be to the south, which is where the greatest wind and surge will be.
I hope I haven't spoken too soon, of course.
Last edited by FunkMasterB on Mon Oct 24, 2005 2:13 am, edited 1 time in total.
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FunkMasterB
- Tropical Depression
- Posts: 96
- Joined: Tue Sep 20, 2005 2:24 am
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markymark8
- Tropical Storm
- Posts: 111
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- Location: North Carolina
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DLI2k5
-
Matt-hurricanewatcher
jpigott wrote:If that 135kt wind is verified and this thing isn't upgradedwe have possibly an exploding hurricane right off FL SW shore, all FL SE metro areas are going to be severely affected and we got Pasch playing conservative
I agree
There was two sets of cat4 winds. First one with 4 obs showing it...Its pretty hard to believe they would be all wrong!
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