Hurricane Wilma - Cat. 5

[storms in NC]

I'm in south fort myers. For the last day they were telling people a cat 1 or low 2. Now it looks like a cat 3. Only about 50% of homes and business's are boarded up here (well the last I drove around at 7pm). There are a lot of people staying here. The news does talk a lot about the surge which should not affect Fort myers since we'll be on the north side. But winds should be a problem.

I can't beleive what I am hearing here. Oh and they telling them it will be in and out in no time.

If on hair is hurt on my kids Ft Myers Will know I was there when I get done.

[THead]

So what happened to:

1) the shear that was supposed to weaken this

2) the dry air that was supposed to weaken this

both haven't done anything to this

From Typhoon_tip on CFHC:

(yes, he's a met)

Seriously, SRS - Storm Relative Shear is exactly what it sounds like... relativity... To the hurricane, the wind that is shear impactive may have the physical presents of say 5mph, which is generally not enough to inhibit strengthening. If Wilma was translating along at say...10mph, that physical presents becomes 10mph. If she were standing still, she'd be encounter all of the environmental wind field's capacity to impinge on her vertical structure, or 20mph... (I'm not saying the envir. field is 20mph - just a facsimile)... Anyway, her storm relative shear is quite low when she's already 15 or 16mph, because all the wind barbs I've seen since 00z have been about 18kts... after conversion, she's in for what...6mph of shear... Nah, not gonna touch her.

Funny, I asked this question a couple days ago. If the storm is moving at 20 mph and the shear is coming from the same direction as the storm is coming from, at the same speed, does it negate the shear? I got conflicting answers.

[jpigott]

what do you guys think - 115 or 120 at 11PM. I ask b/c Max Mayfield said earlier with Wilma the flight winds were essentially the same as the surface winds and a 114kt flight wind was just found

[krysof]

I'm in south fort myers. For the last day they were telling people a cat 1 or low 2. Now it looks like a cat 3. Only about 50% of homes and business's are boarded up here (well the last I drove around at 7pm). There are a lot of people staying here. The news does talk a lot about the surge which should not affect Fort myers since we'll be on the north side. But winds should be a problem.

I can't beleive what I am hearing here. Oh and they telling them it will be in and out in no time.

If on hair is hurt on my kids Ft Myers Will know I was there when I get done.

This just proves how ignorant people are, and how dumb people are. Out of all the hurricane infected states, I think Texas does the best job in preparations and evacuations.

[storms in NC]

Hey Storms in NC - I live about an hour and a half N of you. I bought the car I'm driving in Wallace a couple of weeks ago!

Only good news about Wilma - looks to me like it will hit the unpopulated Everglades, and all the stuff of the W coast of Florida will be on the weaker side of the storm, and the east coast will have the peninsula as a buffer. Tornados could be the biggest threat from this storm, IHMO.

Flooding reported in Key W.

So cool I am going though there Monday. Have drs appt in Greeneville at 3. Oh and love the BBQ there. We stop every time we go up that way.
Thank you for your kind words

[CHRISTY]

my god!!! this thing is exploding.....

[DrStorm]

So pretty much everything South of Maples on the West side of the FL coast is just empty wetlands right? That may turn out to be best possible scenario then?

[Myersgirl]

Wilma... more south than expected? Local mets here are saying it looks that way.

[Patrick99]

She is indeed looking pretty. Color me surprised.

Landfall......I think she landfalls in between Cape Sable near Flamingo in the Everglades National Park, and Naples. To me, it looks like Everglades City and Chokoloskee are going to be hit, and hard.

IMO, we could see images from Marco Island that look like those from Sanibel and Captiva after Charley.

[CronkPSU]

why are they saying that....been dead on the NHC track

[Brent]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE WILMA ADVISORY NUMBER 35
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SUN OCT 23 2005

...WILMA STRENGTHENS INTO A MAJOR CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE...
...TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS LASHING THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS
AND WESTERN CUBA...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA
KEYS... INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS AND FLORIDA BAY...ALONG THE
FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM LONGBOAT KEY SOUTHWARD... AND ALONG THE
FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM TITUSVILLE SOUTHWARD... INCLUDING LAKE
OKEECHOBEE.

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z... THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALONG THE FLORIDA
EAST COAST HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD TO ST. AUGUSTINE. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST NORTH
OF LONGBOAT KEY TO STEINHATCHEE RIVER...AND ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST
COAST NORTH OF TITUSVILLE TO ST. AUGUSTINE.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT ALONG THE NORTHEAST COAST OF
FLORIDA FROM NORTH OF ST. AUGUSTINE TO FERNANDINA BEACH.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...LA HABANA...AND PINAR DEL RIO. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLE OF YOUTH. A HURRICANE
WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCE OF MATANZAS. THESE WARNINGS
AND WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED MONDAY MORNING.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ABACOS...ANDROS ISLAND...BERRY ISLANDS...
BIMINI...ELEUTHERA...GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...AND NEW PROVIDENCE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT... NOAA DOPPLER RADARS... AND SATELLITE IMAGES
INDICATE THE CENTER OF THE LARGE EYE OF MAJOR HURRICANE WILMA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.4 NORTH... LONGITUDE 83.7 WEST OR ABOUT
120 MILES... 195 KM... WEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA AND ABOUT 170
MILES... 275 KM...SOUTHWEST OF NAPLES FLORIDA.

WILMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR. A
CONTINUED NORTHEASTWARD MOTION... WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED... IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND MONDAY. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER
OF WILMA IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST
OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA EARLY MONDAY MORNING. HOWEVER... WILMA IS
A LARGE HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL REACH THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA WELL BEFORE THE EYE MAKES LANDFALL. THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE EYEWALL... ACCOMPANIED BY THE STRONGEST WINDS...
WILL REACH THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF FLORIDA ABOUT 2 HOURS BEFORE
THE CENTER OF THE LARGE EYE MAKES LANDFALL.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH...185 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WILMA IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED UNTIL LANDFALL OCCURS
...AND WILMA WILL LIKELY MAKE LANDFALL AS A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE.
SOME SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS WILMA CROSSES THE SOUTHERN
FLORIDA PENINSULA... BUT THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO STILL BE A
SIGNIFICANT CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE BY THE TIME THE CENTER REACHES
THE FLORIDA EAST COAST EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 230 MILES...370 KM. SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE
OCCURRING OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL... WESTERN CUBA... AND THE LOWER
AND MIDDLE FLORIDA KEYS. THESE WINDS SHOULD REACH THE SOUTHWESTERN
FLORIDA COAST BY MIDNIGHT... WITH HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS REACHING
THE LOWER KEYS AND SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA COAST BEFORE SUNRISE.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 958 MB...28.29 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 9 TO 17 FT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS
POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST NEAR AND TO THE
SOUTH OF WHERE THE CENTER OF WILMA MAKES LANDFALL. STORM SURGE
FLOODING OF 5 TO 8 FT ABOVE NORMAL IS POSSIBLE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS
AND FLORIDA BAY... AS WELL AS IN LAKE OKEECHOBEE. STORM SURGE
FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN
COAST OF FLORIDA.

WILMA MAY PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10
INCHES THROUGH MONDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA. RAINFALL
ACROSS SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL FLORIDA...
INCLUDING THE FLORIDA KEYS... THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED
TO BE 4 TO 8 INCHES... WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES
POSSIBLE. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS.

LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY WILMA WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST FROM THE FLORIDA KEYS NORTHWARD TONIGHT
AND EARLY MONDAY.

THE TORNADO THREAT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA
... AND THE FLORIDA KEYS... HAS INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY. SCATTERED
TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...24.4 N... 83.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...115 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 958 MB.

INTERMEDIATE ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 1 AM EDT AND 3 AM EDT FOLLOWED
BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 AM EDT.

FORECASTER STEWART

[CronkPSU]

NHC confirms cat 3 upgrade

[Ivanhater]

its a cat 3 now, 115mph

[Brent]

HURRICANE WILMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 35
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL242005
0300Z MON OCT 24 2005

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA
KEYS... INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS AND FLORIDA BAY...ALONG THE
FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM LONGBOAT KEY SOUTHWARD... AND ALONG THE
FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM TITUSVILLE SOUTHWARD... INCLUDING LAKE
OKEECHOBEE.

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z... THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALONG THE FLORIDA
EAST COAST HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD TO ST. AUGUSTINE. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST NORTH
OF LONGBOAT KEY TO STEINHATCHEE RIVER...AND ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST
COAST NORTH OF TITUSVILLE TO ST. AUGUSTINE.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT ALONG THE NORTHEAST COAST OF
FLORIDA FROM NORTH OF ST. AUGUSTINE TO FERNANDINA BEACH.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...LA HABANA...AND PINAR DEL RIO. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLE OF YOUTH. A HURRICANE
WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCE OF MATANZAS. THESE WARNINGS
AND WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED MONDAY MORNING.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ABACOS...ANDROS ISLAND...BERRY ISLANDS...
BIMINI...ELEUTHERA...GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...AND NEW PROVIDENCE.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.4N 83.7W AT 24/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 958 MB
EYE DIAMETER 45 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.
64 KT....... 65NE 75SE 50SW 50NW.
50 KT.......125NE 125SE 90SW 90NW.
34 KT.......200NE 200SE 150SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..325NE 300SE 200SW 325NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.4N 83.7W AT 24/0300Z
AT 24/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.9N 84.4W

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 26.2N 81.2W...INLAND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 70NE 85SE 60SW 50NW.
50 KT...125NE 125SE 100SW 90NW.
34 KT...200NE 225SE 175SW 175NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 30.2N 76.3W...OVER ATLANTIC WATERS
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 70NE 85SE 60SW 30NW.
50 KT...125NE 150SE 125SW 75NW.
34 KT...200NE 225SE 200SW 175NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 36.5N 69.9W...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 60SE 30SW 0NW.
50 KT...100NE 175SE 75SW 50NW.
34 KT...225NE 250SE 225SW 125NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 42.9N 64.7W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT...100NE 175SE 75SW 50NW.
34 KT...200NE 250SE 175SW 125NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 48.0N 60.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT...100NE 175SE 75SW 50NW.
34 KT...200NE 250SE 175SW 125NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 28/0000Z 49.5N 49.5W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 29/0000Z 50.0N 38.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.4N 83.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0900Z

FORECASTER STEWART

[DrStorm]

its a cat 3 now, 115mph

No kidding! Well, carve up the crow, there are about 10 'know it alls' on this board that said it would never ever happen. Dig in!

[Patrick99]

So pretty much everything South of Maples on the West side of the FL coast is just empty wetlands right? That may turn out to be best possible scenario then?

Most of it, yes....there is the small town of Everglades City and village of Chokoloskee, but they are sparsely populated. South of Naples, that's the 10,000 Islands region....a near impenetrable maze of mangrove islands. Not a whole lot there.

She's getting that "donut" back.

[gatorcane]

We forget that Miami is about 60-70 miles E SE of extreme SW FL...

It would be devestating to Miami should she go south of Naples.

Everglades/rapid movement will keep her a CAT 3 in Miami

[Tri-State_1925]

Cat 3. What a shocker. Always good to see a strengthening storm hitting the coastline btw.

Surprised to see so many out on the Florida beaches today on TV. I hope they know what they are doing. Hope they really do live inland...wherever that is. I really don't want to hear these same people complaining that the government isn't doing enough for them after all this.

I heard people a couple days ago saying the local mets in Florida weren't emphasizing the danger of this storm, and I believe it after seeing and hearing about all the people staying.

[DrStorm]

Most of it, yes....there is the small town of Everglades City and village of Chokoloskee, but they are sparsely populated. South of Naples, that's the 10,000 Islands region....a near impenetrable maze of mangrove islands. Not a whole lot there.

I just used Google Earth to check out the Keys, so, are you telling me all those little islands packed with homes are only 1.5 feet above sea level, a CAT3 is racing at them, and 90% didnt evacuate? This could be interesting, at least it's moving quickly. A slow moving storm would have been horrible.

[swimaster20]

Hmmmm...I should let by-gones be by-gones but I can't help myself. Where are all the people saying Wilma would be no more than a TS at its Florida landfall?