Hurricane Wilma Recon Discussion Thread

[wxwatcher91]

210430 2311 08349 12021 -0047 194099 +069 +063 193101 059 006
210500 2312 08347 11958 -0035 193100 +070 +062 193101 058 006
210530 2313 08344 11986 -0014 193100 +067 +063 193101 055 005
210600 2315 08342 12014 +0004 191100 +069 +060 191100 054 006
210630 2316 08339 11954 +0018 190100 +066 +058 190100 055 007

[JtSmarts]

NOAA plane just found 101 kts

NHC still right on the money, 101 kts corresponds to 90 kts surface.

[Thunder44]

I hear Max Mayfield in his news conference a little while ago, say that the storm was "tilted" and the NOAA plane was finding stronger winds at the surface than at flight level.

[Typhoon]

Why hasn't there been a vortex message from the NOAA plane?

[WindRunner]

Why hasn't there been a vortex message from the NOAA plane?

I haven't seen either of the last two from them come in, don't know why.

[soonertwister]

NOAA plane just found 101 kts

NHC still right on the money, 101 kts corresponds to 90 kts surface.

According to Derek Ortt, that flight level corresponds to a .95 reduction at the surface, rather than .90. So the measurement supports winds almost at 110 surface at that time.

[Brent]

Heights are lower so the pressure is probably slightly lower.

[jkt21787]

Eye dropsonde showed 959 with 15 knot winds. Its probably 957 or 958. FL winds of 104 kts recored as well.

[WindRunner]

Just found 110kts FL = 113.85mph surface (using a .9 conversion) = Cat 3!

[cjrciadt]

thats is 113.9 at the ground, we have a major? Also are surface winds still higher than Flight level?

[Lowpressure]

Just found 110kts FL = 113.85mph surface (using a .9 conversion) = Cat 3!

Since it appears we can not use normal ratios- what would that equate to in this case at the surface? Closing in on cat 3 the way I see it.

[Brent]

If it's not a Cat 3 it's darn close and imminent.

[Lowpressure]

:eek:

If it's not a Cat 3 it's darn close and imminent.

I think there was an edit to the quote above or I would not have asked my question. I think recon still will find higher in this pass.

[cycloneye]

URNT12 KNHC 240135
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 24/01:12:40Z
B. 24 deg 15 min N
084 deg 08 min W
C. 700 mb 2732 m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg nm
F. 142 deg 114 kt
G. 039 deg 027 nm
H. 958 mb
I. 8 C/ 3053 m
J. 14 C/ 3047 m
K. 14 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. CO45-60
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 3 nm
P. AF305 2424A WILMA OB 13
MAX FL WIND 114 KT NE QUAD 01:04:30 Z
MAX FL TEMP 16 C, 225 / 24NM
OUTER EYE IS RAGGED
INNER EYE IS OPEN E-SW

[cycloneye]

URNT12 KNHC 240310
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 24/02:46:30Z
B. 24 deg 22 min N
083 deg 50 min W
C. 700 mb 2733 m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg nm
F. 215 deg 105 kt
G. 123 deg 036 nm
H. 957 mb
I. 9 C/ 3037 m
J. 15 C/ 3048 m
K. 15 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C55
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 3 nm
P. AF305 2424A WILMA OB 20
MAX FL WIND 114 KT NE QUAD 01:04:30 Z
MAX FL TEMP 18 C 320 / 15 NM FROM FL CNTR

[mtm4319]

It looks like they just went through the NE eyewall judging from the coordinates (going north and east) and the fact that they passed through the center... and highest flight level wind was 105 knots in the NE quadrant. Not sure why a lower value was found, since the pressure dropped 3 millibars.

[superfly]

With a storm moving ENE, the SE quad and to some extent the SW quad are the strongest. Judging from IR presentation, the SE quad is weaker than the SW quad so I would assume the strongest winds would be in the SW quad.

[mtm4319]

With a storm moving ENE, the SE quad and to some extent the SW quad are the strongest. Judging from IR presentation, the SE quad is weaker than the SW quad so I would assume the strongest winds would be in the SW quad.

Yes, it was 112 knots in the SW quad... but the NE quad was 114 knots a couple of hours ago per the previous VDM posted here by cycloneye.

[mtm4319]

Recon is heading towards the NW quadrant now for a NW/SE pass, it's looking like.

[mtm4319]

045
SXXX50 KNHC 240602
AF302 2524A WILMA HDOB 03 KNHC
0544 3355N 08430W 00311 5011 360 000 096 054 000 00300 0000000000
0544. 3355N 08430W 00316 5014 320 006 096 054 013 00301 0000000000
0545 3355N 08431W 00382 5022 320 014 094 050 020 00360 0000000000
0545. 3355N 08433W 00610 5023 322 024 072 072 027 00589 0000000100
0546 3356N 08434W 00826 5024 326 029 056 056 029 00805 0000000100
0546. 3356N 08436W 00980 5024 329 028 056 056 029 00959 0000000100
0547 3355N 08438W 01368 5031 280 017 060 060 025 01339 0000000100
0547. 3354N 08438W 01777 5024 229 018 044 044 019 01756 0000000100
0548 3352N 08438W 02008 5022 243 021 024 016 021 01989 0000000000
0548. 3351N 08438W 02311 5023 251 028 010 004 035 02294 0000000000
0549 3349N 08438W 02586 5018 249 039 022 037 040 02574 0000000000
0549. 3347N 08438W 02851 5012 248 040 010 047 041 02847 0000000000
0550 3345N 08437W 03111 5004 248 043 006 033 045 03114 0000000000
0550. 3344N 08437W 03365 0006 241 045 012 073 046 03379 0000000000
0551 3342N 08437W 03600 0016 239 047 005 079 048 03624 0000000000
0551. 3340N 08437W 03817 0025 238 052 017 107 053 03850 0000000000
0552 3338N 08436W 04002 0035 240 051 027 125 052 04045 0000000000
0552. 3337N 08436W 04168 0043 245 056 023 197 059 04219 0000000000
0553 3335N 08435W 04332 0058 248 060 027 243 060 04396 0000000000
0553. 3333N 08434W 04514 0068 244 062 041 217 062 04588 0000000000

Are flight-level winds really 62 knots over the state of Georgia?