NAPLES/FORT MYERS RESIDENTS GET OUT NOW!!!!

[southerngreen]

**"My fear is that they are most probably "under" done, and possibly may lead to confusion for the "tropically uneducated". This is especially significant for an approaching storm that was once a cat 3, 4, or 5 while still 200 miles at sea, but then made landfall as only a cat 1. It will STILL bring with it the surge of a much more intense storm. Hence, this is where the confusion will present itself for the residents...[/quote]

**"Just for reference. Here is one for Brazoria,Galveston and Harris county. Actually it went well for being the first year that officials could call for voluntary evacs. It was only those that were NOT in the zones which created so many of the traffic problems.

**"I would have to think that Florida is better prepared than we were for something such as this."**

Scott[/quote]


FYI. . . . . we were out earlier this evening (9ish) and I75 northbound was a little heavier than normal for a saturday night. there was NO evidence of any kind of exodus. (I-75 is the MAJOR exit route out of the Sarasota/Ft. Myers/Naples area) we are about an hour north of sarasota.
unfortunately Scott, you would be dead wrong. Florida should be better prepared, but we have squeaked by so many times & been told so often "not to panic" that no one panics. hardly anyone does anything. last year was so insane that it made people a little shell-shocked, and this year we've been missed by BIG ones twice so i guess people figure it's just one more drill. they will get up sunday & go to a ball game like always. IF it does hit anywhere near a heavily populated area it will be really bad, cause people will all try to leave at the last minute & you know how that goes. i'm a native & so's my husband, but he has listened to all the local mets say that it's not coming here & if it does, it will be the worst kind of misery trying to get out. we know all the alternate routes, but it's still no fun being out there in a storm (we left EVERY time last year)
from down here there's only one direction to go & not nearly enough roads for everyone, plus many of the snowbirds are here.

i'm just praying that it will fizzle by monday.
SG

(please note: no caps, no bold, just my opinion)
[quote][/quote]

[DoctorHurricane2003]

Oh dear lord was this post ridiculous

Okay...you can NOT have 30 foot waves on top of a 15 foot surge on land. Why?:

Surge = 15 feet
Water Depth on Land = 15 feet
Maximum Theoretical Wave Height = 15 feet
Maximum Probable Wave Height = < 10 feet

You can't have wave heights greater than 15 feet because in essence, that would require the bottom of the wave troughs to be underground.

[Tiny]

I have a question(for the locals who know where this is) about the surge/flooding and how the recent canal closures in the South Blocks of Collier County will affect the overall scenerio. Do you think the canal closures will make flooding better or worse?
All the canals that once funneled water to the gulf have been filled in for Everglades restoration. The south blocks span from I-75 to U.S. 41 around Badluck Prairie and of course east to Fakahatchee State Preserve or as the locals call it "The Tram Rd". Anyway, all those that know the area, know the amount of canals that were out there. Now that they are cut off, I'm worried about what the water will do.

[birdwomn]

FYI. . . . . we were out earlier this evening (9ish) and I75 northbound was a little heavier than normal for a saturday night. there was NO evidence of any kind of exodus. (I-75 is the MAJOR exit route out of the Sarasota/Ft. Myers/Naples area) we are about an hour north of sarasota....
unfortunately Scott, you would be dead wrong. Florida should be better prepared, but we have squeaked by so many times & been told so often "not to panic" that no one panics. hardly anyone does anything. last year was so insane that it made people a little shell-shocked, and this year we've been missed by BIG ones twice so i guess people figure it's just one more drill.
i'm just praying that it will fizzle by monday.
SG

I have to agree that less of the natives have left this weekend than I would have thought. I-75 between Tampa and Gainesville was the most pleasant drive I have had on that road in many, many years, Friday & Saturday (i went up to visit my daughter). That said, I do think many people left on Thursday and probably (hopefully) stayed gone. This is one that the "run from the water, hide from the wind" saying seems to go pretty well for, IMO.

As to your other comments, I think we are all very hurricane weary. If we haven't lost our homes and/or livelyhood, we mostly likely know someone who has. You can't stay on high alert all the time. Sometimes, you just do what you can and stop worrying about it and say "whatever happens is ok". And yes, that could leave us very vunerable. If you live on the coast and are not paying close attention, or don't have a plan, you are in trouble. Even if you do, you could be in trouble. I am in Pinellas county. I am on the north edge of the cone...do I close on Monday or not? Who knows? It is too soon to tell.

[CharleySurvivor]

We all are aware of wind damages in FL from last year's event. Lets not forget we barely experienced any surges from them (except for Yvan)

Strong surges were a new thing this year with Katrina & Rita wipping out communities.

Every hurricane does its own thing. SW Florida needs to take Wilma seriously and consider the POSSIBILITY of strong surge also.

It's nothing to mess with as it might be OUR turn to get the effect of a big surge this time!

[inotherwords]

In my opinon, at least our county (Sarasota) has done a very poor job in educating people about surge and giving people a place to evacuate to if they need it.

I just called our EOC and asked if they had surge projections for our county based on NHC's latest forecasts and was told they had no information at this time. This really unconscionable 24 hours before landfall.

Not only that, but the two shelters nearest here are in Cat 3 evac. zones. See article here:
http://tinyurl.com/byjq8
In the event of an area surge of Cat 4 or 5 proportions (I'm not talking about this storm, but hypothetically), where in the heck are they expecting people to go? In a peninsula where central FL below Orlando offers few options as far as hotels there are only so many options, and by the time we get our orders to evacuate, it's too late -- there's no place to go. This is just a disaster waiting to happen. We will probably do fine this time if the track and intensity pan out, but I'm really concerned for the future.

Hope you guys in Lee/Collier counties have better emergency management than we do.

[CharleySurvivor]

I think like you do inotherwords...we have not experienced storm surges here and if it does happen, it will be a BIG wake up call for everyone in FL.

The surge worries me a lot more this time because of what happened on the Gulf Coast.

[inotherwords]

I think like you do inotherwords...we have not experienced storm surges here and if it does happen, it will be a BIG wake up call for everyone in FL.

The surge worries me a lot more this time because of what happened on the Gulf Coast.

Unfortunately it seems that the Mississippi Katrina lesson has been lost on the locals. Florida's biggest and most recent storms since Andrew have not produced a lot of surge, so I think too many people along this coast are thinking about winds and not water as our biggest dangers. Even though our local mets give storm surge lip service, I don't think people really understand what could and WILL eventually happen here along this coast. They are building as fast as they can in evac areas and don't seem to give this any thought. Not to give this a political bent, but it seems that our governor has no problem sanctioning no-holds-barred growth and development and then comes on TV saying that FL is ready for any disaster. Well, they may be ready to come shovel up the bodies after it happens and give water to the people left, but to me the government's responsibility starts BEFORE the storm and not after.

It's a shame that a widespread disaster will probably have to happen before people wise up.

[Frank P]

Let me make a comment on the waves associated with Katrina on the front beach in Biloxi... I've heard these exaggerated reports of 30 feet waves... that's all BS.... my neighbor, an insurance adjuster who rode out the storm on the beach and saw my second floor float past his backyard, told me that he never say any waves greater than 5-6 feet as the surge was rolling across the highway and into our neighborhoods... if you've see video taken by some storm trackers at a hotel in Gulfport, their video also supports that claim... he said he never saw any rouge waves that just destroyed everything... not that there were not in the storm, he didn't see any... he said just the constant pounding of these 5 to 6 foot waves basically destroyed everything that they came into contact with... and they did this for hours and hours... the structures just could not take the constant pummelling from the water... his house was 25 foot above sea level, he had almost six feet of water in his house... I saw the water line... his report on what happened is most creditable to me... being a professional insurance man... by the way, he did NOT have flood insurance because he was not considered to be in a flood zone... I challenge anyone to show me a wave greater than 5-6 feet along the beach in Biloxi or Gulfport... now what happened in the Pass, Bay or Waveland could be a different story...

[Ixolib]

Unfortunately it seems that the Mississippi Katrina lesson has been lost on the locals. Florida's biggest and most recent storms since Andrew have not produced a lot of surge, so I think too many people along this coast are thinking about winds and not water as our biggest dangers. Even though our local mets give storm surge lip service, I don't think people really understand what could and WILL eventually happen here along this coast. They are building as fast as they can in evac areas and don't seem to give this any thought. Not to give this a political bent, but it seems that our governor has no problem sanctioning no-holds-barred growth and development and then comes on TV saying that FL is ready for any disaster. Well, they may be ready to come shovel up the bodies after it happens and give water to the people left, but to me the government's responsibility starts BEFORE the storm and not after.

It's a shame that a widespread disaster will probably have to happen before people wise up.

Great post, I-O-W. And others who are discussing the impact of surge vs. wind.

My point continues to be that the NHC R-E-A-L-L-Y needs to begin harping and hounding on the effects of surge EQUALLY as much as they harp and hound on the winds. As do the local mets and NWS. In my opinion, the surge effects should receive completely revised and new attention by ALL officials including local, state, and federal. By June 1 of 2006, I am VERY hopeful that we will see a whole new version of the TC advisories, with a whole new method of disseminating and impressing the issues of storm surge with any landfalling cane.

As another member so wisely posted, you can easily hide from the wind, but surge is a whole other issue!!

[Air Force Met]

OK...you are not going to get 35' waves crashing on the shore of SW Florida. Those wave forecasts are for the open ocean. I don't care what the shelf waters and piling up is...this isn't a tsunami.

Think about it. In all the storm surge footage of rita and katrina along the coast...did you EVER see the surge at the base of someone's house with waves toping the roof? No...and that would have been a 15' wave. Storm waves are significantly lower near the shore. No...you saw houses near the coast...at the height of the surge...with water up to the windows and 3-5' waves around. Right? Right.

Why does that happen? Because of the shallow slope and long wavelength of the swell, waves break WELL offshore. That disipates some of the energy of the wave. The maps everyone is freaking out about are swells in the open ocean. These waves will break a good disatance offshore because of the shallow slope of the coast. Breaking waves lose much of their height. That is why the graphic TWC shows sometimes is bogus (the one where they show a 20' wave on the top of a 10' surge...not sure of exact numbers but you get the idea) and would only be viable IF the storm was coming into an area that had a very steep slope offshore...which is NOT SW Florida.

Remember...waves break in shallow water. A 35' monster will become a lot of 5' rolling waves when onshore. Also remember a 20' wave is really only 10' above sea level....which is another reason you will never get a 20' hurricane wave on a shallow sloping shore.

So...and I can't remember who...to the person who said it would build waves higher because of shallow slope...that is true to an extent...but it does it well offshore BEFORE the wave breaks. Once the wave breaks (when it is still offshore)...that is not true. Shallow water is your friend when it comes to waves...unless you are speaking of tsunamis...which because of their wavelength are totally different beasts.

[tronbunny]

I am not downplaying the need for folks to be prepared. but one doesn't have to go too, too far to escape surge in most cases, but you can't do it during the storm.
I find it absolutely amazing that any evac shelter would be in a storm surge zone at all!!I know much of Florida south of polk and osceola are at 10m or less. I've seen it on a NASA satellite pic, and will post if/when I find it again.

But there are not the number-density of residents in lee/collier in the surge areas that there are in other places like Biloxi, Sarasota/Tampa.
So even if every one did wait until today, you would not have Houston-like gridlock just to get to higher ground. Most folk should be able to go to a local shelter OUTSIDE the surge zone.

And Florida is much better prepared for recovery than ever before..
FEMA not factored in!
Just come into Orlando... many, many parking lots full of resources, like the EPCOT parking lot full of out of state linemen! (bless their hearts)

[dhweather]

I think like you do inotherwords...we have not experienced storm surges here and if it does happen, it will be a BIG wake up call for everyone in FL.

The surge worries me a lot more this time because of what happened on the Gulf Coast.

Unfortunately it seems that the Mississippi Katrina lesson has been lost on the locals. Florida's biggest and most recent storms since Andrew have not produced a lot of surge, so I think too many people along this coast are thinking about winds and not water as our biggest dangers. Even though our local mets give storm surge lip service, I don't think people really understand what could and WILL eventually happen here along this coast. They are building as fast as they can in evac areas and don't seem to give this any thought. Not to give this a political bent, but it seems that our governor has no problem sanctioning no-holds-barred growth and development and then comes on TV saying that FL is ready for any disaster. Well, they may be ready to come shovel up the bodies after it happens and give water to the people left, but to me the government's responsibility starts BEFORE the storm and not after.

It's a shame that a widespread disaster will probably have to happen before people wise up.

Those that fail to learn from their history are doomed to repeat it.

I understand why people love to live in coastal areas - I love it.

But for the love of God, GET OUT WHEN A HURRICANE APPROACHES.

You can replace everything but your life.

[dixiebreeze]

A few years ago at a conference here with Max Mayfield, it was pointed out that the shallow gulf area offshore of Cedar Key and the South shore of Long Island, were comparable and two of the most vulnerable areas in the country for high storm surge. I experienced some of that during Hurricane Elena in '85, even though she sat offshore of Cedar Key for about 3 days before moving toward the Panhandle.

[tronbunny]

Every resident should be aware of their topography..
What can the government do, beyond mailing everyone a storm surge plot, and maybe a big red X over their house?
The newspaper should publish that too.
And, NO shelters should be in any of the surge zones!

Those that don't leave will be reinforcing Darwin's theory of natural selection.
Folks need to be responsible for themselves, their family, neighborhood, town, county, state... in that order.

[wxcrazytwo]

I'm sorry, i'm just freaking out right now...

Hmm, freaking out and on the computer posting shouldn't you be packing and panicking instead of panicking and typing on the net?

[TS Zack]

Sorry about this folks, I am just freaking out, forget about this post, I am sorry, mods, you may consider deleting my post.

MY GOD! OKAY THIS IS SERIOUSLY THE MOST IMPORTANT THING I"VE EVER SAID!

http://www.wunderground.com/MAR/flm.htm ... &animate=1

EVERYONE IN THE EVACUATION AREA AND COASTAL LEE COUNTY, LEAVE NOW!! GET OUT! I'M SERIOUS! LOOK AT THIS WAVE FORECAST. THE WAVES GET SO HIGH THAT THEY GO OFF THE SCALE AND START OVER AGAIN. THIS IS REPRESENTING UP TO 36 WAVES ON TOP OF THE EXPECTED 16 FOOT STORM SURGE!!!!

THIS WILL WIPE OUT NAPLES AND FORT MYERS. EVERYONE ON THE COAST AND NEAR THE COAST GET OUT NOW, I'M SERIOUS!! LEAVE NOW! I'M NOT TRYING TO CAUSE PANIC, BUT I'VE BEEN ASKING SOME PEOPLE AROUND, THEY SAY THIS IS ALMOST CERTAIN THAT THESE KINDS OF WAVES WILL AFFECT US. GET OUT, GET OUT NOW! EVERYONE WEST OF LIVINGSTON SHOULD LEAVE NOW! ESPECIALLY THOSE ON THE COAST LIKE THE MOORINGS AND VANDERBILT. LEAVE, LEAVE NOW!!!

http://www.wunderground.com/MAR/flm.htm ... &animate=1

I AM SO SCARED ABOUT THE FATE OF OUR CITY...PEOPLE ARE SAYING THAT THE STORM SURGE/WAVES COULD DEVASTATE THE ENTIRE CITY OF NAPLES AND BEYOND!!!

GOD BLESS SOUTHWEST FLORIDA,
KEVIN CHO - PROUD RESIDENT

You sound like I did when I was in a hotel on Sunday Evening before Katrina. I was watching CNN/Fox News and all the national news who had continuing coverage.

I told everyone in my family, this is really happening. This is the one. Nobody had a clue what we were to endure the next month away from home.

I don't care if it is only 10ft storm surge. This storm will have a higher storm surge than Charley but it will be weaker in winds. 100mph can do alot of damage. Mobile Homes will be gone, structual damage to roofs, and many trees uprooted or snapped.

Take Cover! God Bless!

[yzerfan]

We're not just talking about the initial destruction from a storm surge here. How long did it take to get people help after Katrina and Rita?? Sometimes days or even longer. We saw how emasculated Fema really is in disaster response. After all disaster response is only an add on to the fema mission. The lions share of the money go's into COG (continunity of government) All the underground bases, bunkers ect....and even the U.S. government reaches a point where it runs out of resources. To say that we have "been drained" by this season doesn't do it justice.

Florida's got the best state-level disaster relief in the country. Right now, the National Guard, local search & rescue and emergency medical officers from as far away as Tennessee and Georgia, the utility companies, and other emergency personel and equiptment are already staged in Tampa, Orlando, and Miami just waiting for the winds to die down so they can go where they're most needed.

State disaster relief credo- Relief can be quick, efficient, or cheap, and you can only pick one of those three. Florida picks quick, and if the response ends up being expensive overkill like it was for Dennis, then that's far better than underresponding.

[dhweather]

I'm sorry, i'm just freaking out right now...

Hmm, freaking out and on the computer posting shouldn't you be packing and panicking instead of panicking and typing on the net?

That's one thing that never ceases to amaze me. Folks asking
"What should I do" when you know good and well you shouldn't be on the
computer, you should be packing.

Did I post on August 27/28? Very little - I packed and left.

[inotherwords]

OK...you are not going to get 35' waves crashing on the shore of SW Florida. Those wave forecasts are for the open ocean. I don't care what the shelf waters and piling up is...this isn't a tsunami.

Think about it. In all the storm surge footage of rita and katrina along the coast...did you EVER see the surge at the base of someone's house with waves toping the roof? No...and that would have been a 15' wave. Storm waves are significantly lower near the shore. No...you saw houses near the coast...at the height of the surge...with water up to the windows and 3-5' waves around. Right? Right.

<snip>

While I'd love to believe you, someone posted some sobering pictures the other day taken in Biloxi that showed a house as the storm surge came in. First picture was "before." Second picture showed during, when water was halfway up the garage. Third picture was at the maximum, and water was up to the peak of the roof. Very little of the house was visible. And this was a good sized house at an elevation much higher than mine is here.

Other people posted images of houses completely gutted by water, gutting that was from a storm surge much bigger than up to the windows.

Until I better understand how the conditions there compared with the conditions here, and given that I'm just a mile from the Gulf, I'd really like to understand better what's possible here and not just be complacent that it will just come up to the windows.