Hurricane Wilma - Cat. 5

[inotherwords]

I was just on my back dock checking the boat, one house boarded up, 5 sets of neighbors having cocktails.... so much for Ft. Myers preperation

Still time to board up tomorrow morning. I'm with your neighbors, I think I'm ready for a glass of wine or three. This has been a rough day and we have a few more rough ones ahead.

Now I did have a glass of wine with them before taking down all the chickee-hut decorations. Im not crazy

If you want to drive up to Venice tonight, I'm buying.

[WxGuy1]

is it safe to say we are seeing intensification ?

Probably not. Clouds tops aren't cooling on IR (NOT SW IR! As someone else has explained, you'll always see a rapid expansion of blues on the shortwave IR images when the sun sets). In addition, latest VORTEX indicates an eye temperature of 14C, which isn't warm at all. In addition, there is only a 2 degree celsius temperature gradient across the eyewall, which certainly does NOT indicate strengthening. Why some folks continue to push an Armaggedon scenario is beyond me. Seems as though it's more based on non-scientific "hunches" than anything else... Yes, she'll probably strenghen to stronger Cat 2 or Cat 3, but the environment really isn't that pristine and supportive of a Cat 4+ hurricane.

[gunner1551]

is it safe to say we are seeing intensification ?

No.

i dont think so right now, but soon... and into tomorrow

[jkt21787]

:wink:

Are you just mad that you're not seeing the posts you wanted, saying it is exploding into a 4 or 5 again?

[wxwatcher2]

Why is everyone arguing with eachother?
We all expect Wilma to intensify somewhat since leaving the Yucatan.

Lets not argue and try and support each other with facts and predictions.

[tracyswfla]

Why is everyone arguing with eachother?
We all expect Wilma to intensify somewhat since leaving the Yucatan.

Lets not argue and try and support each other with facts and predictions.

You are so right! Nerves are getting frayed at this point of the Wilma waiting game.

[ConvergenceZone]

is it safe to say we are seeing intensification ?

Probably not. Clouds tops aren't cooling on IR (NOT SW IR! As someone else has explained, you'll always see a rapid expansion of blues on the shortwave IR images when the sun sets). In addition, latest VORTEX indicates an eye temperature of 14C, which isn't warm at all. In addition, there is only a 2 degree celsius temperature gradient across the eyewall, which certainly does NOT indicate strengthening. Why some folks continue to push an Armaggedon scenario is beyond me. Seems as though it's more based on non-scientific "hunches" than anything else...

I agree with ya. It cracks me up when folks keep saying cat 4 or 5 at landfall and yet they fail to see all of the conditions going against it that will keep it from getting that strong. They say, well Rita and Katrina got stronger, yet they fail to see the IDEAL conditions which existed for those two storm. The conditions aren't even remotely close to what they were for those two storms. I say most likely cat 2. I don't think it will get as low as a cat 1 though, but I could be wrong. Once the westerlies start carrying it, it's going to be going through some brutal shear.

[f5]

the attitude usually is i only take CAT 5s seriously.well you get my point we seen it before including the consequences

[gatorcane]

Once the westerlies start carrying it, it's going to be going through some brutal shear.

yeah we keep talking about them but their arrival keeps getting delayed it seems.

[JTD]

ERC over land, is that not paradoxical. ?

Not really. Storms can replace their eyewalls anytime, it doesn't have to be over water.

Curious, were there any storms that had an ERC over land, well at least since we've had the instrument to see it ?

Yes. In fact, every storm that stalls over land with a portion of its circulation over water experiences a weakening/collapse of the inner core whilst the outer part of the circulation maintains more of its vigor because it remains over water. What we see here is textbook physics, folks: the inner core has been disrupted by friction from land and lack of a heat source, while the outer circulation remains robust. Since Wilma didn't move too far inland, enough of the circulation remained over water for an eyewall to form.

So now here's the kicker: the fact that the inner core HAS collapsed may mean the storm MIGHT NOT strengthen as rapidly as some here are thinking. The reason is that storms that have lost their inner core, as Wilma has by definition of the 75 mi wide eye, have a tough time tightening up again. That's why Frances in 2004 never recovered, even over the Gulf stream, and didn't strengthen before hitting Florida. That's why so many other storms that have lost their inner core, like Isidore in 2002 after the Yucatan, couldn't strengthen whatsoever.

Dennis spent 12-18 hours over Cuba and was able to re-intensify. Is there something different with Wilma that will prevent that from happening here?

[theworld]

:wink:

Are you just mad that you're not seeing the posts you wanted, saying it is exploding into a 4 or 5 again?

jk, i think you've made your point.

For the record, i used the term 'exploding'... back a page or 2... excuse me. More appropriate wording may have been NE Quad is intensifying, obviously, its over water a compared to the W side.

The details of false colors on radars due to lowering of sun on horizon, understood.

Let's all play nice.

[jkt21787]

:wink:

Are you just mad that you're not seeing the posts you wanted, saying it is exploding into a 4 or 5 again?

jk, i think you've made your point.

For the record, i used the term 'exploding'... back a page or 2... excuse me. More appropriate wording may have been NE Quad is intensifying, obviously, its over water a compared to the W side.

The details of false colors on radars due to lowering of sun on horizon, understood.

Let's all play nice.

Thank you. I was a bit harsh in a few recent posts. Lets do try to place nice.

[markymark8]

That is an awesome semmetrical Hurricane even though it has been on land for a while. I see that she is strengthening SLOWLY. Notice that the outer eyewall is now starting to have oranges and reds wrap around her core even to her west which already looks more impressive and she is not fully over the GOM yet. Her center HAS NOT been disrupted that much. Her core looks impressive like katrinas did when she came offshore of southwest Florida and we all saw how fast she started to strengthen. http://smn.cna.gob.mx/radares/rad-canc.jpg

[jkt21787]

The 12z ARW HWRF 4km, which earlier indicated a cat 4/5 landfall for FL, has now seriously toned down, indicating a 2/3 at landfall. This is very reasonable and much more likely. It NEVER takes the storm above cat 3 status.

Lets tone down this talk of cat 4/5 now please...

EDIT...I take that back. It BRIEFLY takes the storm to cat 4 over the loop current, then begins to weaken it. Still not that unreasonable. Still the 4/5 talk needs to come down a bit, its running rampant and is alarming some folks who are taking the data seriously.

[thermos]

Things that make you go hmm....
Storms do not strengthen if the Sun is going down.

Lets try this again. Sunsets cause an error in that particular sat product

I really would like to NOT have to explain or clarify this again, but I keep having to for some reason.

Maybe if you added "OMG! It's exploding! We're all gonna die!" it would get their attention.

more things that make you go hmm....
jokes made at my expense

even the NHC's wind tables shows a 15% shot a 4 or 5 so it is a reasonable topic to discuss
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphic ... html?table

[tracyswfla]

:wink:

Are you just mad that you're not seeing the posts you wanted, saying it is exploding into a 4 or 5 again?

jk, i think you've made your point.

For the record, i used the term 'exploding'... back a page or 2... excuse me. More appropriate wording may have been NE Quad is intensifying, obviously, its over water a compared to the W side.

The details of false colors on radars due to lowering of sun on horizon, understood.

Let's all play nice.

Thank you. I was a bit harsh in a few recent posts. Lets do try to place nice.

[superfly]

The SSTs are lower in the Gulf this time of year but remember, Dennis exploded back to a cat 4 in similar conditions.

[cycloneye]

Ok Folks let's continue the good discussions about Wilma and not get into personal things and as members haved said.Let's play nice

[Typhoon]

You know that ARW (HWRF) model? I made a post (and someone else started a new thread) about the 00z run. Well, the 12z run came out, and it looks much more realistic. It intensifies Wilma to a Cat 4, followed by a Cat 3 at landfall near Ft. Myers. Its projection of re-intensification to a Cat 3 after exiting Florida looks suspect. I can't get an image to show up on this post, so I'll show a link to it:

Go to ARW 4km hurricane page, select the 12z run, "loop all hours", and "hurricane track", then click "View forecast".

[f5]

Things that make you go hmm....
Storms do not strengthen if the Sun is going down.

Lets try this again. Sunsets cause an error in that particular sat product

I really would like to NOT have to explain or clarify this again, but I keep having to for some reason.

Maybe if you added "OMG! It's exploding! We're all gonna die!" it would get their attention.

more things that make you go hmm....
jokes made at my expense

even the NHC's wind tables shows a 15% shot a 4 or 5 so it is a reasonable topic to discuss
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphic ... html?table

NHC wind table was way off on Katrina&Rita as well