Wilma Recon Reports

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Post Reply
Message
Author
Derek Ortt

#941 Postby Derek Ortt » Sat Oct 22, 2005 1:46 pm

a low end cat 2 or a cat 1... not surprised at all
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
artist
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9792
Joined: Mon Jun 06, 2005 3:26 pm
Location: West Palm

#942 Postby artist » Sat Oct 22, 2005 1:53 pm

930
URNT40 KWBC 221840
NOAA2 1824A WILMA
183100 1958 08753 10040 +0034 304061 +109 +109 301062 999 999
183200 1958 08748 10040 +0020 307067 +114 +113 308071 999 999
183300 1958 08742 10044 -0011 304071 +121 +103 306072 999 999
183400 1958 08737 10049 -0044 298068 +118 +106 300070 999 999
183500 1958 08731 10044 -0035 293066 +118 +107 292067 999 999
183600 1958 08726 10041 -0011 290064 +115 +104 289064 042 000
183630 1958 08723 10045 -0011 289063 +114 +098 288064 046 000
183700 1958 08720 10035 -0010 289066 +116 +099 289067 049 000
183730 1958 08718 10042 -0010 290068 +118 +095 290068 050 001
183800 1958 08715 10035 -0007 286067 +120 +094 288068 051 000
183830 1958 08712 10041 -0007 284064 +116 +102 285065 052 000
183900 1958 08710 10045 -0008 281062 +111 +110 282063 053 000
183930 1958 08707 10041 -0007 274062 +110 +106 272064 053 000
184000 1958 08704 10042 -0009 273065 +107 +107 271065 057 005
0 likes   
Top
tallywx
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 790
Joined: Thu Jul 03, 2003 10:19 am
Location: Raleigh/Durham, NC

#943 Postby tallywx » Sat Oct 22, 2005 1:53 pm

Looks like the purported "closed wall" is the outer eyewall that they're detecting, as evidenced by the E36/60/80 reading, meaning that the eye is elliptical from north to south with an east-west width of 60 miles and a north-south width of 80 miles. So an average 70 mile wide eye. That's huge. Looks like we have a "goard"-like eye a la Frances and Jeanne. Not sure the inner core will recover.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
artist
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9792
Joined: Mon Jun 06, 2005 3:26 pm
Location: West Palm

#944 Postby artist » Sat Oct 22, 2005 2:03 pm

608
URNT40 KWBC 221850
NOAA2 1824A WILMA
184030 1958 08701 10051 -0008 269065 +107 +107 274067 058 012
184100 1958 08659 10050 -0003 262060 +106 +106 262062 058 006
184130 1958 08656 10042 +0000 267054 +107 +107 267055 055 003
184200 1958 08653 10042 +0000 265055 +109 +109 266056 054 002
184230 1958 08650 10044 +0005 264056 +113 +113 262057 052 001
184300 1958 08648 10043 +0010 262058 +112 +112 263059 053 002
184330 1958 08645 10046 +0013 264058 +109 +109 263059 054 004
184400 1958 08642 10040 +0015 260061 +108 +108 261061 052 004
184430 1958 08640 10048 +0021 256060 +109 +109 256060 051 002
184500 1958 08637 10047 +0025 254060 +110 +110 254060 051 001
184530 1958 08634 10048 +0029 253061 +111 +111 253061 050 001
184600 1958 08631 10038 +0033 252063 +112 +112 251063 050 002
184630 1958 08629 10056 +0039 244061 +114 +113 241062 049 002
184700 1958 08626 10052 +0043 242062 +108 +106 242063 050 001
184730 1958 08623 10044 +0045 241061 +114 +101 241062 048 002
184800 1958 08620 10041 +0051 241062 +117 +101 241063 047 001
184830 1958 08618 10040 +0056 240067 +118 +095 240068 045 000
184900 1958 08615 10039 +0064 238067 +112 +101 239068 044 000
184930 1958 08613 10048 +0066 235065 +105 +105 236067 047 001
185000 1958 08610 10036 +0070 236067 +109 +101 237069 043 000
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
artist
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9792
Joined: Mon Jun 06, 2005 3:26 pm
Location: West Palm

#945 Postby artist » Sat Oct 22, 2005 2:04 pm

406
UZNT13 KWBC 221853
XXAA 72182 99260 70849 08164 99007 274// 08516 00062 26825 08516
92749 22018 11519 85481 18031 14021 70120 09857 15021 50584 04559
10513 40755 16126 33004 30967 29335 20529 25094 39338 19540 20243
515// 21045 88999 77999
31313 09608 81746
51515 10167 02018
61616 NOAA9 1924A WILMA OB 01
62626 SPL 2604N08497W 1759 WL150 08516 085 DLM WND 15516 006182 M
BL WND 09517=
XXBB 72188 99260 70849 08164 00007 274// 11006 27225 22918 21616
33901 21237 44796 14421 55720 10857 66661 06846 77641 05861 88610
02050 99598 01260 11572 01132 22513 02959 33443 12335 44316 26331
55243 40941 66182 573//
21212 00007 08516 11885 13520 22807 13016 33754 16020 44707 15023
55651 16023 66540 12528 77508 11513 88485 09012 99463 10014 11448
07014 22435 06521 33425 05510 44412 11001 55363 09501 66338 16012
77305 20529 88240 19040 99185 21542 11182 20553
31313 09608 81746
51515 10167 02018
61616 NOAA9 1924A WILMA OB 01
62626 SPL 2604N08497W 1759 WL150 08516 085 DLM WND 15516 006182 M
BL WND 09517=
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
artist
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9792
Joined: Mon Jun 06, 2005 3:26 pm
Location: West Palm

#946 Postby artist » Sat Oct 22, 2005 2:11 pm

268
URNT40 KWBC 221900
NOAA2 1824A WILMA
185030 1959 08607 10050 +0078 233065 +111 +098 233065 042 000
185100 1959 08605 10048 +0082 232065 +110 +103 232066 039 000
185130 1959 08602 10049 +0090 230065 +110 +094 229066 039 000
185200 1959 08559 10043 +0093 228066 +112 +081 228067 037 000
185230 1959 08557 10045 +0098 227066 +109 +084 228067 037 000
185300 1959 08554 10047 +0106 223064 +105 +094 223065 035 000
185330 1959 08551 10051 +0114 220060 +106 +088 220062 035 000
185400 1959 08549 10037 +0118 223060 +110 +085 223060 033 000
185430 2000 08547 10040 +0120 222060 +111 +081 222060 999 999
185500 2002 08545 10039 +0114 218060 +111 +080 218061 999 999
185530 2004 08546 10034 +0107 218062 +110 +083 217063 037 000
185600 2006 08548 10043 +0097 216064 +107 +085 215064 036 000
185630 2007 08549 10043 +0091 216066 +104 +092 218068 038 000
185700 2009 08551 10045 +0082 218068 +107 +086 218069 037 000
185730 2010 08553 10042 +0073 219069 +110 +076 219070 038 000
185800 2012 08554 10046 +0063 219066 +106 +085 218067 040 000
185830 2013 08556 10045 +0054 222066 +106 +092 223067 041 000
185900 2014 08557 10045 +0043 223067 +111 +093 223068 040 000
185930 2016 08559 10042 +0032 223066 +112 +097 222067 043 000
190000 2017 08600 10044 +0019 220065 +112 +094 219065 045 001
0 likes   
Top
bigmoney755

#947 Postby bigmoney755 » Sat Oct 22, 2005 2:21 pm

which column is the winds?
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
artist
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9792
Joined: Mon Jun 06, 2005 3:26 pm
Location: West Palm

#948 Postby artist » Sat Oct 22, 2005 2:30 pm

635
URNT40 KWBC 221920
NOAA2 1824A WILMA
191030 2048 08633 10050 -0359 231073 +115 +115 236073 076 016
191100 2050 08635 10045 -0401 242066 +121 +121 242071 078 010
191130 2051 08636 10030 -0418 236057 +129 +129 238058 075 004
191200 2052 08638 10040 -0436 230056 +129 +129 230057 072 003
191230 2054 08639 10036 -0455 225054 +130 +130 224054 072 002
191300 2055 08641 10050 -0471 226058 +130 +130 226060 073 001
191330 2057 08642 10039 -0496 226058 +128 +128 225058 071 001
191400 2058 08644 10046 -0521 226058 +127 +127 227058 068 000
191430 2100 08645 10040 -0549 227059 +127 +127 227060 066 000
191500 2101 08647 10042 -0591 228063 +129 +129 228064 069 004
191530 2103 08648 10040 -0647 230060 +129 +129 231060 999 999
191600 2104 08650 10046 -0693 232054 +129 +129 232058 999 999
191630 2106 08651 10028 -0736 229052 +134 +134 230053 999 999
191700 2107 08653 10037 -0741 227051 +138 +138 226052 999 999
191730 2108 08654 10046 -0777 229049 +137 +137 228050 999 999
191800 2110 08656 10045 -0796 228045 +137 +137 228045 999 999
191830 2111 08657 10042 -0813 230040 +138 +138 229042 999 999
191900 2113 08659 10044 -0831 230038 +140 +140 230039 999 999
191930 2115 08700 10038 -0860 228027 +138 +138 228031 999 999
192000 2116 08702 10042 -0888 227021 +140 +140 227023 999 999
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Bgator
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 649
Joined: Mon Sep 05, 2005 12:29 pm
Location: Orlando, FL

#949 Postby Bgator » Sat Oct 22, 2005 2:34 pm

Which column is the winds?!
0 likes   
Top
Brent
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 38103
Age: 37
Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
Contact:
Contact Brent

#950 Postby Brent » Sat Oct 22, 2005 2:43 pm

Bgator wrote:Which column is the winds?!


6th column from the left... or 5th from the right. Last three numbers.
0 likes   
#neversummer
Top
User avatar
artist
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9792
Joined: Mon Jun 06, 2005 3:26 pm
Location: West Palm

#951 Postby artist » Sat Oct 22, 2005 2:44 pm

998
URNT40 KWBC 221930
NOAA2 1824A WILMA
192030 2118 08703 10035 -0906 228013 +140 +140 227016 999 999
192100 2119 08705 10040 -0923 265001 +139 +139 244006 999 999
192130 2121 08706 10033 -0918 069010 +139 +139 069014 999 999
192200 2123 08707 10039 -0899 066019 +140 +140 061022 999 999
192230 2124 08709 10047 -0878 056027 +140 +140 055029 999 999
192300 2125 08711 10042 -0844 052036 +137 +137 051039 999 999
192330 2127 08712 10039 -0782 050043 +138 +138 050045 044 004
192400 2128 08714 10044 -0745 050045 +139 +139 050045 038 006
192430 2130 08715 10036 -0716 050046 +138 +138 049047 040 004
192500 2131 08717 10037 -0706 050051 +133 +133 046054 999 999
192530 2133 08719 10035 -0661 047055 +136 +132 047057 999 999
192600 2134 08720 10038 -0616 048057 +136 +127 048058 057 000
192630 2136 08722 10035 -0578 047061 +139 +131 047062 060 002
192700 2137 08723 10042 -0542 047062 +142 +125 047062 064 002
192730 2139 08725 10039 -0514 047058 +137 +128 046060 065 004
192800 2140 08726 10045 -0486 046061 +131 +131 046069 067 007
192830 2141 08728 10033 -0451 042078 +125 +120 042079 065 009
192900 2143 08729 10037 -0420 045078 +123 +114 043079 062 007
192930 2144 08731 10035 -0389 051078 +117 +117 051078 060 007
193000 2146 08732 10038 -0353 050080 +114 +114 049081 059 007
0 likes   
Top
StormsAhead
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1447
Joined: Thu Jul 14, 2005 6:38 pm
Location: Cape Cod, Massachusetts

#952 Postby StormsAhead » Sat Oct 22, 2005 2:47 pm

URNT12 KNHC 221942Z
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 22/1920Z
B. 21 DEG 20 MIN N
87 DEG 05 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2725 MA
D. 85
E. 135 DEG 35 NM
F. 221 DEG 81 KT
G. 136 DEG 51 NM
H. 957 MB
I. 11 C/ 3057 M
J. 14 C/ 3060 M
K. 14 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C75
N. 12345/7
O. 1/1 NM
P. NOAA2 1824A WILMA OB 08
MAX FL WIND 90 KT NE QUAD 1739Z
REMNENTS OF INNER EYEWALL ON RADAR.
0 likes   
Top
Matt-hurricanewatcher

#953 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Sat Oct 22, 2005 2:50 pm

Holy wow 75 nmi wide eye :eek:
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
WindRunner
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5806
Age: 34
Joined: Fri Jul 29, 2005 8:07 pm
Location: Warrenton, VA, but Albany, NY for school
Contact:
Contact WindRunner

#954 Postby WindRunner » Sat Oct 22, 2005 2:50 pm

Pressure down a mb, and inner eyewall gone leaving a 75nmi wide eye! That's got plenty of room to contract and strengthen in a few hours, better watch out.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
chris_fit
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3223
Age: 42
Joined: Wed Sep 10, 2003 11:58 pm
Location: Tampa Bay Area, FL

#955 Postby chris_fit » Sat Oct 22, 2005 2:53 pm

WindRunner wrote:Pressure down a mb, and inner eyewall gone leaving a 75nmi wide eye! That's got plenty of room to contract and strengthen in a few hours, better watch out.


It's like it did an ERC over land :grrr: :grrr: :grrr:

It's gonna bomb once it hits that fuel (water)
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
El Nino
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 454
Age: 47
Joined: Sun Oct 16, 2005 3:18 pm
Location: Lima - Miraflores (Peru)
Contact:
Contact El Nino

#956 Postby El Nino » Sat Oct 22, 2005 2:55 pm

I've got a bad feeling about this ! Just (tpartially) offshore and beginning to reintensify. I don't think surprises are over with this hurricane !
0 likes   
Top
StormsAhead
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1447
Joined: Thu Jul 14, 2005 6:38 pm
Location: Cape Cod, Massachusetts

#957 Postby StormsAhead » Sat Oct 22, 2005 2:57 pm

URNT40 KWBC 221940
NOAA2 1824A WILMA
193030 2147 08734 10034 -0319 049079 +115 +113 049080 059 006
193100 2148 08735 10035 -0291 048077 +119 +115 049078 058 009
193130 2150 08737 10034 -0266 048075 +120 +114 047076 057 010
193200 2151 08738 10035 -0244 050074 +118 +113 050075 055 011
193230 2153 08740 10033 -0223 051071 +114 +112 051072 054 011
193300 2154 08741 10035 -0202 050069 +111 +111 049070 052 010
193330 2156 08743 10032 -0182 051068 +114 +110 051069 050 008
193400 2157 08744 10037 -0165 051068 +114 +112 051069 052 007
193430 2159 08746 10037 -0146 050064 +115 +112 049064 049 009
193500 2200 08748 10043 -0131 049061 +112 +111 049062 049 011
193530 2201 08749 10037 -0118 050063 +109 +109 051064 050 013
193600 2203 08751 10030 -0104 046059 +110 +110 048063 051 018
193630 2204 08752 10041 -0091 049058 +109 +109 051062 052 015
193700 2206 08754 10047 -0069 049060 +115 +115 052062 052 007
193730 2207 08755 10035 -0056 047063 +119 +117 048064 049 004
193800 2209 08757 10042 -0042 047060 +118 +115 046062 049 002
193830 2210 08758 10033 -0032 049058 +116 +115 049059 048 002
193900 2212 08800 10040 -0021 050056 +115 +113 052057 047 005
193930 2213 08802 10035 -0008 054057 +117 +113 054058 044 002
194000 2214 08803 10047 +0006 052056 +118 +109 052056 043 001
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
artist
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9792
Joined: Mon Jun 06, 2005 3:26 pm
Location: West Palm

#958 Postby artist » Sat Oct 22, 2005 2:57 pm

049
UZNT13 KWBC 221948
XXAA 72198 99208 70866 08106 99977 24408 18581 00707 ///// /////
92477 22007 20101 85212 18606 21591 70864 126// 88999 77999
31313 09608 81911
61616 NOAA2 1824A WILMA OB 10
62626 SPL 2091N08652W 1915 WL150 18587 087 DLM WND 20591 976789 M
BL WND 19096 LST WND 012 EYEWALL 135=
XXBB 72198 99208 70866 08106 00977 24408 11969 23806 22895 21413
33862 19208 44837 18004 55713 13207 66696 124//
21212 00977 18581 11973 18085 22968 18584 33954 19100 44943 19600
55935 19605 66883 21089 77791 22594 88696 24059
31313 09608 81911
61616 NOAA2 1824A WILMA OB 10
62626 SPL 2091N08652W 1915 WL150 18587 087 DLM WND 20591 976789 M
BL WND 19096 LST WND 012 EYEWALL 135=
0 likes   
Top
StormsAhead
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1447
Joined: Thu Jul 14, 2005 6:38 pm
Location: Cape Cod, Massachusetts

#959 Postby StormsAhead » Sat Oct 22, 2005 3:00 pm

URNT40 KWBC 221950
NOAA2 1824A WILMA
194030 2216 08805 10047 +0019 051054 +116 +109 051055 044 001
194100 2217 08806 10045 +0030 052048 +118 +109 051050 047 002
194130 2219 08808 10042 +0039 053046 +120 +113 054047 048 004
194200 2220 08810 10045 +0047 051044 +122 +110 052044 048 007
194230 2222 08811 10040 +0057 051045 +117 +109 052047 048 007
194300 2223 08813 10040 +0062 051051 +114 +107 050052 047 008
194330 2225 08814 10035 +0077 051051 +114 +107 050052 049 007
194400 2226 08816 10040 +0089 047048 +119 +109 049049 048 006
194430 2228 08818 10041 +0096 047047 +116 +110 047048 052 005
194500 2229 08819 10054 +0100 033048 +113 +112 029051 053 004
194530 2231 08821 10033 +0102 027046 +111 +111 027050 052 003
194600 2232 08822 10038 +0108 024047 +111 +103 024049 052 003
194630 2233 08824 10038 +0111 025053 +118 +081 028055 999 999
194700 2232 08826 10029 +0120 024058 +124 +074 021060 999 999
194730 2230 08826 10040 +0111 020061 +120 +077 019062 050 002
194800 2227 08826 10048 +0108 024057 +108 +100 023059 049 002
194830 2225 08826 10046 +0100 021055 +109 +106 022057 048 001
194900 2222 08826 10044 +0098 021051 +106 +105 022052 048 002
194930 2220 08826 10046 +0091 022055 +106 +106 021056 049 001
195000 2217 08826 10039 +0083 020056 +111 +107 018057 048 002
0 likes   
Top
StormsAhead
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1447
Joined: Thu Jul 14, 2005 6:38 pm
Location: Cape Cod, Massachusetts

#960 Postby StormsAhead » Sat Oct 22, 2005 3:07 pm

UZNT13 KWBC 221955
XXAA 72197 99217 70875 08117 99974 25411 01071 00734 ///// /////
92454 22403 02589 85189 19408 04085 70846 128// 04077 88999 77999
31313 09608 81928
61616 NOAA2 1824A WILMA OB 12
62626 SPL 2161N08752W 1932 WL150 01078 087 DLM WND 03582 973696 M
BL WND 01583 LST WND 012=
XXBB 72198 99217 70875 08117 00974 25411 11972 25209 22931 22802
33811 17408 44715 13424 55696 12607
21212 00974 01071 11943 01589 22937 02088 33931 02080 44925 02589
55916 03087 66903 03095 77696 04078
31313 09608 81928
61616 NOAA2 1824A WILMA OB 12
62626 SPL 2161N08752W 1932 WL150 01078 087 DLM WND 03582 973696 M
BL WND 01583 LST WND 012=

NW eyewall...71 knots surface. The dropsonde above had 81 knots at the surface in the SE quadrant.
0 likes   
Top
Post Reply

Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: gib, Google [Bot], Stormlover70 and 40 guests