Hurricane Wilma - Cat. 5

Raebie · #3681 Postby **Raebie** » Sat Oct 22, 2005 1:25 pm

Yeah, but now I'm afraid to comment on anything.

:wink:

jkt21787 · #3682 Postby **jkt21787** » Sat Oct 22, 2005 1:26 pm

Funny to see one post say its weakening, then the post immediately after say its strenghtenning. Who to believe?

markymark8 · #3683 Postby **markymark8** » Sat Oct 22, 2005 1:27 pm

The NHC has nailed another one. Congrats to them. Looks like Wilma might not exit the Yucatan till tonight since she is basically stationary. She is now a cat 2 and might be a strong 1 before she gets back in the gulf. The longer she stays on land the better chance Florida will only deal with a Cat 1 maybe even a weak one before its over with . Nothing has been wrong with the computer models as well. Most of them all pointed out this stall which is happening. I believe the GFDL will be the one closest to floridas landfall. Looks like a Fort Myers will get the brunt which is bad because they are prone to bad surge even if it is a weak storm. Nothing is changing and no suprises it looks like as well. The forecast models did great considering all the atmosphere changes that were and are going on to the north and ahead of the storm. They were pretty darn good job not to mention the NHC had it first hugging the coast and staying just offshore which almost happened too. The model runs after that then changed for a stall and it happened. Now we wait and see when she gets back in the Gulf and how much or if at all can she strengthen some more before paying a visit to the sunshine state. The ONLY ERRORS in Wilmas forecast will be the intensity if anything and that is due to not enough funding to get that dealio alot better in the coming years hopefully.

StormWarning1 · #3684 Postby **StormWarning1** » Sat Oct 22, 2005 1:27 pm

No it is not strengthning. I doubt it is even a Cat 2 when it finally moves back into the Gulf.
Too much time over land.

#3685 Postby **JtSmarts** » Sat Oct 22, 2005 1:27 pm

jkt21787 wrote:Funny to see one post say its weakening, then the post immediately after say its strenghtenning. Who to believe?

Lol, Wilma wants to keep us guessing, she is such a tease.

Derek Ortt · #3686 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Sat Oct 22, 2005 1:29 pm

those saying cat 4 have not looked at any forecast fields.

the shear, while non existent currently, will increase before landfall.

That said, even an 85KT hurricane will be destructive as it will cause a tidal surge in excess of 10 feet

#3687 Postby **gatorcane** » Sat Oct 22, 2005 1:30 pm

no, I disagree, the NHC has missed two things:

1) the fact that she became the strongest hurricane ever in the Atlantic.
The NHC barely had her hitting CAT 3 status in the Caribbean earlier
in the week.

2) the fact that she won't affect S. Florida until Mon. or Tues instead of a
Sat. or Sun. landfall predicited earlier in the week.

Since she won't be here now until 48 hours later than originally forecasted, many people have been overly anxious longer than needed. Some Businesses have closed this weekend anticipating a hit this weekend.

cinlfla · #3688 Postby **cinlfla** » Sat Oct 22, 2005 1:30 pm

Funny to see one post say its weakening, then the post immediately after say its strenghtenning. Who to believe?

Well I'm confused for sure now!!! :think:

artist · #3689 Postby **artist** » Sat Oct 22, 2005 1:31 pm

seems that NOAA (recon) must think she will be off soon since they are almost there.

WindRunner · #3690 Postby **WindRunner** » Sat Oct 22, 2005 1:32 pm

00Z models:

826
WHXX01 KWBC 221826
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

HURRICANE WILMA (AL242005) ON 20051022 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
051022 1800 051023 0600 051023 1800 051024 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 21.2N 87.1W 22.4N 87.3W 23.8N 86.8W 26.2N 84.6W
BAMM 21.2N 87.1W 22.1N 87.2W 23.1N 86.6W 24.8N 84.3W
A98E 21.2N 87.1W 21.7N 87.0W 22.3N 86.8W 23.5N 84.9W
LBAR 21.2N 87.1W 22.2N 86.9W 24.0N 86.3W 26.7N 83.9W
SHIP 90KTS 86KTS 83KTS 75KTS
DSHP 90KTS 87KTS 84KTS 76KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
051024 1800 051025 1800 051026 1800 051027 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 30.6N 79.9W 44.3N 66.5W 50.8N 50.1W 50.3N 32.4W
BAMM 27.9N 79.8W 39.5N 67.4W 47.6N 49.4W 48.6N 32.9W
A98E 27.2N 82.0W 35.4N 73.6W 44.3N 54.9W 40.6N 28.3W
LBAR 31.0N 79.2W 43.2N 60.3W .0N .0W .0N .0W
SHIP 65KTS 48KTS 37KTS 19KTS
DSHP 54KTS 43KTS 32KTS 0KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 21.2N LONCUR = 87.1W DIRCUR = 0DEG SPDCUR = 2KT
LATM12 = 20.9N LONM12 = 87.1W DIRM12 = 317DEG SPDM12 = 2KT
LATM24 = 20.4N LONM24 = 86.7W
WNDCUR = 90KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 110KT
CENPRS = 958MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD = 250NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 175NM RD34SE = 175NM RD34SW = 120NM RD34NW = 150NM

artist · #3691 Postby **artist** » Sat Oct 22, 2005 1:33 pm

first vortex in closed eyewall -ragged 958 mb, 90 kts. ne quad

Raebie · #3692 Postby **Raebie** » Sat Oct 22, 2005 1:34 pm

Recon is still showing a closed wall. That surprises me.

iceangel · #3693 Postby **iceangel** » Sat Oct 22, 2005 1:34 pm

000
WTNT34 KNHC 221755
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE WILMA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 29A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1 PM CDT SAT OCT 22 2005

...WILMA STILL INLAND AND DRIFTING NORTHWARD OVER YUCATAN...
...HURRICANE FORCE WINDS HAVE PERSISTED OVER YUCATAN FOR 24 HOURS...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS...
INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS AND FLORIDA BAY. A HURRICANE WATCH
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON. ALL INTERESTS IN THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF HURRICANE WILMA.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SAN FELIPE TO CHETUMAL ON
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...INCLUDING COZUMEL AND THE NEARBY ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM
WEST OF SAN FELIPE TO CELESTUN.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCES OF LA
HABANA...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE ISLE OF
YOUTH. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT IN CUBA FOR THE
PROVINCES OF MATANZAS WESTWARD THROUGH PINAR DEL RIO...AND FOR THE
ISLE OF YOUTH.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1 PM CDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 21.2 NORTH... LONGITUDE 87.0 WEST... JUST WEST
OF CANCUN MEXICO... OR ABOUT 400 MILES... 645 KM... SOUTHWEST OF
KEY WEST FLORIDA.

WILMA IS ERRATICALLY DRIFTING NORTHWARD... AND A CONTINUED SLOW
NORTHWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. ON THIS TRACK...
THE CORE OF WILMA WILL CONTINUE TO SEVERELY IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE
EXTREME NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA TODAY AND TONIGHT... AND
THEN EMERGE NORTH OF THE PENINSULA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT
OR EARLY SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED AND ARE NOW NEAR 110 MPH...
175 KM/HR... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WILMA IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE
ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS POSSIBLE
TODAY WHILE WILMA IS OVER LAND... BUT SOME RESTRENGTHENING COULD
OCCUR TONIGHT OR ON SUNDAY ONCE WILMA EMERGES OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 200 MILES...325 KM. NOAA BUOY 42057 IN THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA... ABOUT 150 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER OF
WILMA... RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 47 MPH... 76 KM/HR.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 953 MB...28.14 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 7 TO 11 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS... ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES... WILL
CONTINUE NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF THE EYE ALONG ON THE NORTHEASTERN
YUCATAN PENINSULA.

WILMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 10
TO 20 INCHES THROUGH SUNDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA AND THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA... WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS
APPROACHING 50 INCHES. RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN FLORIDA INCLUDING
THE KEYS THROUGH TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE 4 TO 8 INCHES... WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE.

LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY WILMA HAVE PROPAGATED WELL INTO THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY AFFECT PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST TODAY AND TONIGHT.

REPEATING THE 1 PM CDT POSITION...21.2 N... 87.0 W. MOVEMENT...
DRIFTING NORTHWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH. MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE... 953 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
4 PM CDT.

FORECASTER KNABB

$$

#3694 Postby **storms in NC** » Sat Oct 22, 2005 1:35 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:those saying cat 4 have not looked at any forecast fields.

the shear, while non existent currently, will increase before landfall.

That said, even an 85KT hurricane will be destructive as it will cause a tidal surge in excess of 10 feet

I see what you are saying BUT. There is no shear where she is now and once she gets back over the warm waters she Might go back up to a low 4 and with the shears she will run into as she gets closer to Fla she will be moving to fast for it to drop that fast. So I would say a cat 3 at landfal in Ft Myers.

LanceW · #3695 Postby **LanceW** » Sat Oct 22, 2005 1:35 pm

Here is some info I pieced together regarding the front. (When I say it has not reached X point, I am basing this on a drop in temp, as I observed on other buoys.)

Made it to here: 29.18 N 88.21 W (http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42040)

Not Made it to here: 28.79 N 86.02 W (http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42039)

No here either: 30.06 N 84.29 W (http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=SHPF1)

Means absolutely nothing. But, it does provide a way to monitor said front, unless I am way off base.

WindRunner · #3696 Postby **WindRunner** » Sat Oct 22, 2005 1:35 pm

Raebie wrote:Recon is still showing a closed wall. That surprises me.

It's impressive and shows how conducive the structure is for strengthening.

#3697 Postby **WxGuy1** » Sat Oct 22, 2005 1:35 pm

boca_chris wrote:Wilma is definitely starting to strenghten....her convection is increasing and the symmetry is coming back.

Does anybody else notice this?

I really think she'll bomb out when she gets fully over water.

Definately strengthening?! She's at 958mb now. Max FL winds so far have been 90kts, or about 80kts at the surface. She will likely continue to weaken as long as she remains over land. Now, the fact that she only has land in the sW quad of the storm is certainly helping her to weaken less than would otherwise be expected for an inland storm, but she's still over land. I'll eat my crow if you are correct, but I don't expect to be busting out the steaksauce anytime soon.

calculatedrisk · #3698 Postby **calculatedrisk** » Sat Oct 22, 2005 1:36 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:That said, even an 85KT hurricane will be destructive as it will cause a tidal surge in excess of 10 feet

Impact of tidal surge from wunderground:
<img src="http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/history/naples_stormsurge.gif" />

#3699 Postby **gatorcane** » Sat Oct 22, 2005 1:39 pm

okay I'll rephrase because you are right the pressure is rising.

However, she has alot of energy and the symmetry is getting better. Convection is increasing over the eastern quad. The storm is "expanding" in convection again as seen by the infrared.

So once her eye is fully over water she should really intensify I'm afraid. :eek:

Stratosphere747 · #3700 Postby **Stratosphere747** » Sat Oct 22, 2005 1:42 pm

Still calling for a cat4 Boca?

Hurricane Wilma - Cat. 5

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