How Strong Will Wilma Get Once She Gets Back Over Water?

[gatorcane]

Wilma has nearly ideal conditions once her eye gets completely back over water. Why?

1) Westerlies (shear) are still too far north
2) Water temps are very warm (loop current)
3) She still is generating alot of convection/energy even over land

I say a CAT 4 easily here.

[milwaukeebrian]

I'd say she will be somewhere between 120 and 130 mph at peak, then weaken to a borderline 2/3 when she hits Florida.

[Emmett_Brown]

I agree the shear is non existent at the moment, and the westerlies are still to far north. Also, even though the eye is still inland, the outer eye wall (viewable on Cancun radar) has formed a perfect uninterupted circle around the inner eye. This is likely where the strongest winds are, and this outer eye is about 75% over water.

I voted Cat 3, but i am usually conservative, and I am basing this on my guess that the large outer eye is where the maximum winds will be found for the next 2 days. i am betting looser inner core = cat 3 at best, which is still a strong hurricane.

[WindRunner]

Borderline 3/4. Between 125 and 135 mph.

[Brent]

Strong 3. Likely borderline 2/3 for FL.

[Weather Watcher]

I'm expecting about 130 mph winds at landfall in Florida, so cat 3 or cat 4, worst case scenario. I just don't see a cat 2 really possible in this situation. I'm really truly expecting a cat 3.

I have to aggree with you. The way that Wilma went from a cat 1 to a 5 pretty much overnight makes me think she is going to get stronger after she moves out in the GOM. Just my opinion.

Steve

[Scorpion]

140 mph, weaken to 115 before landfall.

[WxGuy1]

Wilma has nearly ideal conditions once her eye gets completely back over water. Why?

1) Westerlies (shear) are still too far north
2) Water temps are very warm (loop current)
3) She still is generating alot of convection/energy even over land

I say a CAT 4 easily here.

Cat 4 EASILY? I can see an argument that she may get cat 4 again, but easily? CIMSS analysis ( http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shr.html ) of upperlevel wind shear shows shear is 10-20kts over the extreme southern Gulf, quickly increasing to the north. Some of the analyzed shear is the result of the anticyclone associated with the storm itself, but it's not like there isn't ANY shear down there. SSTs are pretty warm, but the tropical cyclone heat potential in the southern Gulf is not close to what it was over the Caribbean (http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/dataphod1 ... 5294go.jpg ). TCHP analyzed in that link above will be decreased as well given some upwelling after a day or two of high wave action that's occurring in the area courtesy of Wilma. Finally, the inner core is being disrupted given the large amount of land interaction. Sure, the Yucatan is pretty flat, and the storm is near water, but I can't imagine this land interaction is similar to Dennis, which moved over Cuba and was over land for a relatively short amount of time.

With all that said, I vote Cat 3. The forward speed is going to increase as Wilma near FL, so the associated ground-relative wind speeds will be asymmetric, with the forward speed adding to the winds in the southern part of the storm, and the forward speed subtracting from the winds in the northern half of the storm.

[gatorcane]

just look at the outflow right now and there is hardly any shear around. It's off to the north a couple of hundred miles.

[jkt21787]

just look at the outflow right now and there is hardly any shear around. It's off to the north a couple of hundred miles.

I'm sorry but the shear map wxguy1 posted right above your post clearly show northerly shear affecting Wilma. Follow the link...

[Dr. Jonah Rainwater]

Well, the core is still intact. If Dennis, Emily, and Katrina were any precursors....

[superfly]

Cat 3, hitting Florida as a cat 2.

[Windtalker1]

Cat 4 hitting Florida as a Cat 3

[mtm4319]

Cat 3, hitting Florida as a cat 2.

Agreed.

[bahamaswx]

Not expecting much intensification for at least 6 hours or so. Looks like she'll take a while to pull herself back together. After that, I wouldn't be surprised to see her regain borderline cat 3/4.

[arkess7]

cat 3