Hurricane Wilma - Cat. 5

[tampaflwx]

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[6SpeedTA95]

so if that is correct theres potential for strenthen especially if it travels threw that warm spot.

I think everyone believes it will strengthen once over water. But the only way its got a shot at becoming a cat4 again is if it misses the peninsula and head through hte keys and between florida and cuba. Given the model tracks and assuming it follows them I dont see anything more than a strong 2 and the further north it goes the worse conditions will be.

[Brent]

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF
THE FLORIDA KEYS...INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS AND FLORIDA BAY.
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON. ALL INTERESTS IN THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF HURRICANE WILMA.

[Brent]

[Brent]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE WILMA ADVISORY NUMBER 29
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 AM CDT SAT OCT 22 2005

...CENTER WILMA STILL INLAND OVER YUCATAN AND DRIFTING NORTHWARD...
...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS...

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF
THE FLORIDA KEYS...INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS AND FLORIDA BAY.
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON. ALL INTERESTS IN THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF HURRICANE WILMA.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SAN FELIPE TO CHETUMAL ON
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...INCLUDING COZUMEL AND THE NEARBY ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM
WEST OF SAN FELIPE TO CELESTUN.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCES OF LA
HABANA...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE ISLE OF
YOUTH. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT IN CUBA FOR THE
PROVINCES OF MATANZAS WESTWARD THROUGH PINAR DEL RIO...AND FOR THE
ISLE OF YOUTH.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 21.3 NORTH... LONGITUDE 87.0 WEST... JUST SOUTHWEST
OF CANCUN MEXICO... OR ABOUT 400 MILES... 645 KM... SOUTHWEST OF
KEY WEST FLORIDA.

WILMA IS DRIFTING NORTHWARD... AND A CONTINUED SLOW NORTHWARD MOTION
IS EXPECTED TODAY. ON THIS TRACK... THE CORE OF WILMA WILL CONTINUE
TO SEVERELY IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE EXTREME NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN
PENINSULA ALL DAY TODAY... AND THEN EMERGE NORTH OF THE PENINSULA
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED AND ARE NOW NEAR 115 MPH...
185 KM/HR... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WILMA IS A CATEGORY THREE
HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL WEAKENING
IS EXPECTED TODAY WHILE WILMA IS OVER LAND.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 200 MILES...325 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 946 MB...27.94 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 7 TO 11 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS... ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES... WILL
CONTINUE NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF THE EYE ALONG ON THE NORTHEASTERN
YUCATAN PENINSULA.

WILMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 10 TO 20 INCHES OF RAIN THROUGH
SUNDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...
WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 50 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL ACROSS
SOUTHERN FLORIDA INCLUDING THE KEYS THROUGH TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO
BE 4 TO 8 INCHES... WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES
POSSIBLE.

LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY WILMA HAVE PROPAGATED WELL INTO THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY AFFECT PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST TODAY.

REPEATING THE 10 AM CDT POSITION...21.3 N... 87.0 W. MOVEMENT...
DRIFTING NORTHWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH. MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE... 946 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 1 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 4 PM
CDT.

FORECASTER KNABB

[ronjon]

so if that is correct theres potential for strenthen especially if it travels threw that warm spot.

I think everyone believes it will strengthen once over water. But the only way its got a shot at becoming a cat4 again is if it misses the peninsula and head through hte keys and between florida and cuba. Given the model tracks and assuming it follows them I dont see anything more than a strong 2 and the further north it goes the worse conditions will be.

Not sure I buy all this talk about the storm being a weak CAT 1 or 2 when it makes landfall somewhere on the west coast of FL. I just pulled up the 06Z GFDL - it has the storm weakening to a 75kt hurricane by the time it exits the north coast of the YP about 2 am Sunday morning. It then slowly strengthens the storm to 115 kts by the time it makes landfall near Ft Myers Monday afternoon. Remember, Wilma will be traversing the Loop Current (we know how that affected Katrina & Rita) and the shear doesn't seem to be impeding Wilma in the GFDL model.


http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

[LAwxrgal]

I can't believe this storm has held a recognizable structure after so long on land....And she's forecast to go over the Loop Current?

One saving grace, though, this isn't August and September, when the waters were warmer. And the conditions will be more hostile. Still, I don't expect Wilma to be a walk in the park even when she gets to Florida. Cat 1 or 2 likely, Cat 3 possible...but even 1's and 2's can cause a lot of damage.

[Brent]

HURRICANE WILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 29
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SAT OCT 22 2005

THE CENTER OF WILMA REMAINS JUST INLAND NEAR CANCUN MEXICO. WHILE
IT IS NOT MOVING MUCH... THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A NORTHWARD DRIFT
ON CANCUN RADAR. AFTER ADJUSTMENTS TO THE ACTUAL INITIAL
POSITION... ALL OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST WILMA
TO CROSS THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT TWO TO
THREE DAYS. AS BEFORE... DESPITE THE AGREEMENT ON WHERE WILMA WILL
GO... THERE IS SOME DISPARITY ON HOW FAST WILMA WILL ACCELERATE
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AHEAD OF THE LARGE MIDLATITUDE
TROUGH MOVING INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE UNITED STATES. THE
MODEL CONSENSUS IS ONLY SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL
FORECAST... SO THERE HAS BEEN ESSENTIALLY NO CHANGE TO THE TRACK
FORECAST IN TERMS OF EITHER THE PATH OR THE TIMING.

WILMA WILL PROBABLY WEAKEN SOME MORE WHILE IT REMAINS JUST INLAND
OVER YUCATAN TODAY. HOWEVER... THERE WILL BE SOME OPPORTUNITY FOR
IT TO RESTRENGTHEN DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO BEFORE WESTERLY SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE MIDLATITUDE TROUGH
INCREASES AND INDUCES A WEAKENING TREND AS WILMA APPROACHES
FLORIDA. THE INTENSITY OF WILMA WHILE CROSSING FLORIDA REMAINS
QUITE UNCERTAIN... AND THE BEST ESTIMATE IS THAT IT WILL BE A
CATEGORY ONE OR TWO AT LANDFALL. THE WIND FIELD IS FORECAST TO
EXPAND AS IT ACCELERATES AND CROSSES THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.
THEREFORE... THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL LIKELY COVER A
LARGE AREA.

BASED ON THE TRACK FORECAST AND THE LARGE AREA OF TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH WILMA... A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY. A
HURRICANE WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED LATER TODAY FOR PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA.

FORECASTER KNABB


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 22/1500Z 21.3N 87.0W 100 KT
12HR VT 23/0000Z 21.7N 87.0W 95 KT
24HR VT 23/1200Z 22.5N 86.5W 100 KT
36HR VT 24/0000Z 23.8N 84.8W 100 KT
48HR VT 24/1200Z 25.6N 82.2W 90 KT
72HR VT 25/1200Z 33.5N 72.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 26/1200Z 42.0N 60.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 27/1200Z 47.5N 47.5W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

[rainydaze]

Tornado threat with Wilma may be significant according to this mornings Miami NWS forecast discussion:

EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION WILL BE COMMENCING BY THE TIME WILMA
REACHES SOUTH FLORIDA AS MID- LEVEL TROUGH SYNCS UP WITH
HURRICANE. ADDITIONAL MID-LEVEL DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH TROUGH AND
SPREADING OUT OF RATHER SUBSTANTIAL WIND FIELD ARE JUST TWO OF THE
FACTORS POINTING TOWARD RATHER SIGNIFICANT TORNADO THREAT FOR
SOUTH FLORIDA ON MONDAY AS WILMA MAKES LANDFALL. FURTHER
SUPPORTING EVIDENCE THAT SEEMS TO BE A REASONABLY GOOD ANALOG FOR
THIS EVENT WAS HURRICANE ISBELL IN OCTOBER OF 1964. SHE SPAWNED
PERHAPS A DOZEN TORNADOES ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF FLORIDA
INCLUDING 4 OF F2 INTENSITY ON THE FUJITA SCALE. MORE INFO ON THIS
PAST EVENT IS AVAILABLE ON OUR WEBSITE AT MIAMIWEATHER.INFO

Here is the link Miami NWS is referring to:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/mfl/events/?id=isbell

Notice that most of the tornados occured on the east coast in Palm Beach County....

[x-y-no]

The 11am advisory position is 21.3N 87.0W, which is substantially NE of the area you have highlighted.

[6SpeedTA95]

so if that is correct theres potential for strenthen especially if it travels threw that warm spot.

I think everyone believes it will strengthen once over water. But the only way its got a shot at becoming a cat4 again is if it misses the peninsula and head through hte keys and between florida and cuba. Given the model tracks and assuming it follows them I dont see anything more than a strong 2 and the further north it goes the worse conditions will be.

Not sure I buy all this talk about the storm being a weak CAT 1 or 2 when it makes landfall somewhere on the west coast of FL. I just pulled up the 06Z GFDL - it has the storm weakening to a 75kt hurricane by the time it exits the north coast of the YP about 2 am Sunday morning. It then slowly strengthens the storm to 115 kts by the time it makes landfall near Ft Myers Monday afternoon. Remember, Wilma will be traversing the Loop Current (we know how that affected Katrina & Rita) and the shear doesn't seem to be impeding Wilma in the GFDL model.


http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

Temps, SST's, TCHP are all lower than they were with rita/katrina, I would find it hard to believe that this storm will for some reason fluff off the shear in the area.

[Scorpion]

According to the maps a 91x mb storm is still possible in the GOM as well as a 135 kt storm. So the water isnt that unfavorable.

[storms in NC]

The waters are very favorable.

[6SpeedTA95]

According to the maps a 91x mb storm is still possible in the GOM as well as a 135 kt storm. So the water isnt that unfavorable.

In the middle of the gulf they are, the closer you get to florida nad the further north you go the worse conditions get and they get worse in a hurry. It really is dependant on forward motion and shear. SST's are plenty high to support a good storm if it moves fast enough.

[Scorpion]

Center should be over water by mid-afternoon. 95-100 mph probably.

[Myersgirl]

Center should be over water by mid-afternoon. 95-100 mph probably.

Isn't that earlier than predicted?

[Scorpion]

It's literally within walking distance of the coast.

[Stratosphere747]

According to the maps a 91x mb storm is still possible in the GOM as well as a 135 kt storm. So the water isnt that unfavorable.

In the middle of the gulf they are, the closer you get to florida nad the further north you go the worse conditions get and they get worse in a hurry. It really is dependant on forward motion and shear. SST's are plenty high to support a good storm if it moves fast enough.

SST's to the north of the Yucatan, east and south of Florida are marginal. There is a decent patch up thru the channel towards the CGOM. Not even close to the SST's in relation to where Wilma had the incredible drop of pressure. Don't base it on SST's alone though.
https://www.navo.navy.mil/LIBRARY/Metoc ... mperature/

[shawn67]

The 11am advisory position is 21.3N 87.0W, which is substantially NE of the area you have highlighted.

Use the animated Cancun radar that another person on this board is generoulsy mirroring:

http://flhurricane.com/imageanimator.php?12

It shows the northeast drift of the last several hours...will pass directly over Cancun and into the GOM

Shawn

[truballer#1]

gfs shows a strong cane heading to florida