Invest 99L,Eastern Caribbean,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[Brent]

What do you think the chances for this to develop into Alpha.

Very likely. 75-85%

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

A big blow of convection right over the cirulation...It would not take much for this to be upgraded...

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/rmsd ... PICAL.html

[wxmann_91]

Wow, have ignored this system since it developed, but it looks pretty good.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I say this will be Alpha...But the nhc will likely wait intill recon

[wxmann_91]

I say this will be Alpha...But the nhc will likely wait intill recon

Recon isn't going there, An INVEST far away from the U.S. compared to a huge hurricane baring down on Florida, which one do you think they'll fly the now exhausted and tired recon in?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR



TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL992005) ON 20051022 0600 UTC



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...

051022 0600 051022 1800 051023 0600 051023 1800



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMD 15.4N 66.4W 16.4N 68.8W 17.5N 71.1W 19.2N 73.1W

BAMM 15.4N 66.4W 16.6N 68.8W 17.8N 71.0W 19.3N 72.8W

A98E 15.4N 66.4W 16.0N 69.1W 16.7N 71.7W 17.7N 73.9W

LBAR 15.4N 66.4W 16.4N 68.6W 17.6N 70.7W 19.3N 72.7W

SHIP 30KTS 35KTS 40KTS 46KTS

DSHP 30KTS 35KTS 40KTS 36KTS



...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...

051024 0600 051025 0600 051026 0600 051027 0600



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMD 22.0N 74.4W 32.8N 70.6W 42.9N 49.7W 34.5N 27.6W

BAMM 21.9N 74.4W 31.2N 71.6W 41.1N 51.7W 36.0N 26.9W

A98E 19.9N 75.2W 23.8N 74.1W 27.8N 69.9W 35.1N 61.4W

LBAR 21.9N 73.9W 32.3N 67.8W 35.6N 64.3W .0N .0W

SHIP 49KTS 56KTS 56KTS 39KTS

DSHP 39KTS 46KTS 46KTS 29KTS



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 15.4N LONCUR = 66.4W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 14KT

LATM12 = 14.7N LONM12 = 63.6W DIRM12 = 287DEG SPDM12 = 14KT

LATM24 = 13.8N LONM24 = 61.0W

WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 25KT

CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M

RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



.....THE ABOVE HAS BEEN A TEST MESSAGE.....









The ship makes it a tropical storm!!!

[f5]

can we put a" do not enter" sign off the african coast?they just keep coming

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I will say that I do hope that it fellows the ship model. In becomes a tropical storm...Why because it would be a fiting end of a season like this. It would break the record instead of just tieing it.

It looks like a depression now.

[P.K.]

ABNT20 KNHC 220914
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT SAT OCT 22 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA HAS BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED ABOUT 200 MILES SOUTH OF
PUERTO RICO. THIS SYSTEM IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF SQUALLS
EXTENDING TO PORTIONS OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO.
THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF A CIRCULATION AT THIS TIME BUT CONDITIONS
APPEARS TO BE FAVORABLE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ABOUT 15 MPH.
INTERESTS IN PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF THIS SYSTEM.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
SUNDAY.

FORECASTER AVILA

[Coredesat]

Any chance of Wilma or her extratropical remnant absorbing this system down the road (like after 72 hours)?

[AZS]

[cycloneye]

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 99L

INITIAL TIME 6Z OCT 22

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 15.2 66.8 285./14.0
6 16.2 67.3 334./10.7
12 17.1 68.6 303./15.6
18 17.6 69.8 293./12.7
24 18.3 71.0 301./12.6
30 19.8 71.6 336./16.1
36 20.6 71.9 342./ 8.8
42 21.7 71.9 357./10.8
48 23.4 71.9 3./17.1
54 25.5 71.6 7./21.6
60 28.5 70.9 14./29.9
66 31.7 68.6 35./37.7
72 35.4 65.4 41./45.9
78 38.9 60.8 53./50.3



6z GFDL.

[cycloneye]

22/1145 UTC 15.2N 65.8W T1.0/1.0 99 -- Atlantic Ocean

[SkeetoBite]

[O Town]

She is looking really good this morning. Alot of cold cloud tops in her middle. Tropical depression by tomarrow, I would say.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL992005) ON 20051022 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
051022 1200 051023 0000 051023 1200 051024 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 15.8N 67.5W 16.8N 69.9W 18.1N 72.1W 20.0N 74.0W
BAMM 15.8N 67.5W 17.1N 69.9W 18.4N 71.8W 20.1N 73.8W
A98E 15.8N 67.5W 16.5N 70.0W 17.3N 72.2W 18.9N 74.2W
LBAR 15.8N 67.5W 16.9N 69.7W 18.5N 71.6W 20.5N 73.4W
SHIP 30KTS 35KTS 41KTS 46KTS
DSHP 30KTS 35KTS 33KTS 38KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
051024 1200 051025 1200 051026 1200 051027 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 23.3N 75.4W 33.8N 71.3W 43.7N 53.4W 37.4N 25.8W
BAMM 23.2N 75.3W 32.3N 72.0W 41.4N 56.2W 39.8N 29.0W
A98E 22.4N 74.8W 28.2N 70.9W 34.7N 59.6W 37.7N 37.4W
LBAR 23.5N 74.1W 37.9N 66.0W .0N .0W .0N .0W
SHIP 51KTS 54KTS 51KTS 34KTS
DSHP 43KTS 45KTS 43KTS 25KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 15.8N LONCUR = 67.5W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 13KT
LATM12 = 15.1N LONM12 = 65.0W DIRM12 = 285DEG SPDM12 = 14KT
LATM24 = 14.3N LONM24 = 62.3W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[no advance]

Looks like a Tropical Depression to me. Visiable

[Hurricanehink]

She is looking really good this morning. Alot of cold cloud tops in her middle. Tropical depression by tomarrow, I would say.

Wait, would Alpha be a guy or a girl?
In all seriousness, it (she/he) is looking much better. TD by 5 later today, IMO.

[cycloneye]

She is looking really good this morning. Alot of cold cloud tops in her middle. Tropical depression by tomarrow, I would say.

Wait, would Alpha be a guy or a girl?
In all seriousness, it (she/he) is looking much better. TD by 5 later today, IMO.

I second that.

[Brent]

Wait, would Alpha be a guy or a girl?

I'm wondering about that too... guess we have to call it an "it"