Hurricane Wilma - Cat. 5

[Scorpion]

Wow new GFDL takes it almost right over me.

Scorp are you boarding up? Im still debating here in Stuart

Depends on how it is once it reemerges. If its a Cat 2 or something, then I'll board up.

[wxman57]

06Z GFS is about 20 miles farther south than 18Z yesterday GFS. Landfall 15Z south of Port Charlotte. So the trend is a little south. However, i'd point out that such a short distance is insignificant 2-3 days out.

Time to go hang sheetrock.

[Scorpion]

It doesn't really look like the center will be over land that long. Looks to me the center is really near the tip and will be off in about 6 hours tops. Of course its moving erratically so it can always jog back west. But I don't think it weakens to a minimal 1.

[DESTRUCTION5]

Wow new GFDL takes it almost right over me.

Scorp are you boarding up? Im still debating here in Stuart

Depends on how it is once it reemerges. If its a Cat 2 or something, then I'll board up.

k..Same thoughts here..

[cycloneye]

621
WTNT34 KNHC 221200
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE WILMA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 28A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
7 AM CDT SAT OCT 22 2005

...RELENTLESS HURRICANE FORCE WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE OVER
NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN...
...EYE LOCATED JUST INLAND BETWEEN CANCUN AND COZUMEL...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SAN FELIPE TO CHETUMAL ON
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...INCLUDING COZUMEL AND THE NEARBY ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM
WEST OF SAN FELIPE TO CELESTUN.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCES OF LA
HABANA...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE ISLE OF
YOUTH. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT IN CUBA FOR THE
PROVINCES OF MATANZAS WESTWARD THROUGH PINAR DEL RIO...AND FOR THE
ISLE OF YOUTH.

A HURRICANE WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS LATER
TODAY.

ALL INTERESTS IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE WILMA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 7 AM CDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED
INLAND OVER NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN NEAR LATITUDE 21.0 NORTH...
LONGITUDE 87.0 WEST ABOUT 10 MILES... 15 KM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF CANCUN
AND ABOUT 415 MILES... 665 KM... SOUTHWEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA.

WILMA IS DRIFTING NORTHWARD... AND A CONTINUED SLOW NORTHWARD MOTION
IS EXPECTED TODAY. ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF WILMA WILL CONTINUE
TO SEVERELY POUND PORTIONS OF THE EXTREME NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN
PENINSULA ALL DAY TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED NEAR 120 MPH... 195 KM/HR...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WILMA IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TODAY
WHILE WILMA IS OVER LAND.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 200 MILES...325 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 943 MB...27.85 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 7 TO 11 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS... ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...WILL
CONTINUE NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF THE EYE ALONG ON THE NORTHEASTERN
YUCATAN PENINSULA.

WILMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 10 TO 20 INCHES OF RAIN THROUGH
SUNDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...
WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 40 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL ACROSS
SOUTHERN FLORIDA IS EXPECTED TO BE 4 TO 8 INCHES... WITH ISOLATED
TOTALS AROUND 10 INCHES THROUGH TUESDAY.

LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY WILMA HAVE PROPAGATED WELL INTO THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY AFFECT PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST TODAY.

REPEATING THE 7 AM CDT POSITION...21.0 N... 87.0 W. MOVEMENT
...DRIFTING NORTHWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH. MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE...943 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
10 AM CDT.

FORECASTER KNABB

[no advance]

Agree with you destrucko the core looks strong. Ahead of schedule on movement I believe.

[Scorpion]

Holding its own. It only has about 10 hours more over land tops. Probably less. Its getting very close to water.

[cycloneye]

It's drifting northward per 7 AM CDT advisorie and if that continues it will spend less time on land.

[SouthFloridawx]

She is going to strengthen before she hits florida. I hope everyone is prepared because we have had ample time. For some reason this thing has given a break but, not anymore so finish getting ready today cause i thing all of south florida is going to feel this in one way shape or form. I think there will be a lot of power out.

[Scorpion]

I agree. She will catch many people by surprise who are expecting a minimal Cat 1.

[SouthFloridawx]

BTW. you can see those cold red cloud tops firing up even after she hit land.

[wxwonder12]

Does anyone remember when the WPB channel 5 news guys got in an argument with someone, I think city officials, because they started saying that Jeanne could be a 4 when it came onshore? Are they mandated to keep the broadcast specific to the NHC reports or if they have their own opinion ie: track or intensity, do they have lee way to voice it?

[Scorpion]

Shes definitely starting to actually move on the satellite. So close to the shore. Looks like 30 miles at most.

[shorrock]

Does anyone remember when the WPB channel 5 news guys got in an argument with someone, I think city officials, because they started saying that Jeanne could be a 4 when it came onshore? Are they mandated to keep the broadcast specific to the NHC reports or if they have their own opinion ie: track or intensity, do they have lee way to voice it?

yeah, i remember, but they got Max Mayfield on the phone and the officials in a conference call. Max basically said that they were taking about what the disucssion said, and that they weren't wrong. Just the boca class looking to stir up trouble because they've been trapped so long.

I think they can speak their minds. if they make it clear that it's a posibility and not the official forcast.

[caneman]

Shes definitely starting to actually move on the satellite. So close to the shore. Looks like 30 miles at most.

Agree and still think the GFs faster solution will pan out. Ft. MYers to Port Charlotte. GFS has done remarkably well.

[DESTRUCTION5]

Does anyone remember when the WPB channel 5 news guys got in an argument with someone, I think city officials, because they started saying that Jeanne could be a 4 when it came onshore? Are they mandated to keep the broadcast specific to the NHC reports or if they have their own opinion ie: track or intensity, do they have lee way to voice it?

Yea it was Dean Tendritch and the NHC....

[StrongWind]

IIRC - there's a warm water plume between the YC and Cuba she can feed off. The Gulf waters would have been cooler on the North side had she gone straight through the YC like originally forecast.

[wxwonder12]

I think Rob Lopicola was in on it too.

[HurricaneQueen]

Hmmmh! 26.3 81.5 in 60 hours sounded awfully familiar until I realized it is .1 due N of me. Yikes South Bonita Springs?
Stay safe, everyone.

Lynn

[LarryWx]

THAT is the 2300 3 day forecast. Note the position and location. North of the last advisory, and still at sea at 1300 on 24.10.2005.

The time (1pm monday) in which it is SW of FLA shows the 4PM CDT time which would be the 5pm track?

Just checking in before I resume putting up sheetrock. Want to point out that you have to be VERY careful trying to interpolate a landfall point on those NHC tracks when a storm is moving as fast as Wilma will be. Those points on either side of Florida are not going to be a straight line as is indicated on the map. But that's all that can be depicted. The center could actually track south of Naples and curve back up to the point up the east coast. You just can't draw a straight line between two points during recurvature.

I agree 100% with wxman57. I had brought up this same topic last March
due to the same concern that is highest during a curving path upon crossing a coast. If I had my druthers, there'd either be curved connections instead of the lines or no connections at all (just the dots or maybe even just the cones) since one shouldn't concentrate on just the projected center path and the curves may be too difficult to draw anyway due to there being more than one possible interpolation.

Here is a link to the 3/05 thread:

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=59963