0Z Global Models...No Additional Westward Movement Expected

#1 Postby **MWatkins** » Sat Oct 22, 2005 12:41 am

All of the global models...all of them...no longer anticipate any additional significant westward progress from Wilma. Both the GFDL and UKMET take the hurricane to 87.1 and 86.9W respectively...and the GFS and NOGAPS models keep the center just on or near the NE tip of the Yucatan until various times tomorrow.

From there the GFS, UKMET and GFDL suggest a landfall someplace between Everglades city (GFDL, UKMET) and Port Charlotte (GFS) with the NOGAPS closer to the southern end of that envelope but about 12 hours slower.

Looks like we are starting to see the dreaded turn back to the ENE/NE.

Going to be an interesting day tomorrow to be sure. The Gulf ridge has been shunted enough to allow Wilma to clear the Gulf by Monday night.

This should result in hurricane watches for the Keys and SW FL sometime tomorrow...and for SE FL late tomorrow...and then warnings sometime late on Sunday at this rate.

Here we go...

MW

cape_escape · #2 Postby **cape_escape** » Sat Oct 22, 2005 12:47 am

I second that..."here we go!" :cry:

scogor · #3 Postby **scogor** » Sat Oct 22, 2005 12:47 am

yes indeed! I've never been sold on the stall and Naples solution...leaning more towards Ft. Myers to Venice. Real question in my mind is timing and intensity...and the effects that will be felt on the central west coast (Sarasota County to Pasco/Hernando)

Next 72 hours should be a real adventure.

#4 Postby **HurricaneQueen** » Sat Oct 22, 2005 12:52 am

Mike:

Why aren't you in bed??? LOL.

Just what I wanted to see right before I sign off but have been anticipating this for the last few hours. Sleep well everyone and see you back here in a few hours. :wink:

Lynn

Aquawind · #5 Postby **Aquawind** » Sat Oct 22, 2005 12:53 am

Wake up Mike Tornado near by..LOL

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 149 AM EDT SAT OCT 22 2005 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... NORTHEASTERN BROWARD COUNTY IN SOUTH FLORIDA. * UNTIL 245 AM EDT * AT 144 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR WILTON MANORS AND OAKLAND PARK...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 5 MPH. TORNADOES ARE ESPECIALLY DANGEROUS AT NIGHT BECAUSE THEY ARE HARD TO SEE. TAKE COVER NOW! IF YOU WAIT UNTIL YOU SEE OR HEAR IT COMING...IT MAY BE TOO LATE TO GET TO A SAFE PLACE! MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM OR HALLWAY ON THE LOWEST FLOOR. LEAVE MOBILE HOMES AND VEHICLES FOR REINFORCED SHELTER. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. LAT...LON 2604 8012 2619 8001 2633 8029 2620 8047

StormWarning1 · #6 Postby **StormWarning1** » Sat Oct 22, 2005 12:54 am

It's stalling and dissapating over the YP.

CHRISTY · #7 Postby **CHRISTY** » Sat Oct 22, 2005 12:55 am

yes but this dip down to the south is gonna kill it.. if does get out of land quick there maybe a tropical storm here tommorow!

#8 Postby **MWatkins** » Sat Oct 22, 2005 12:57 am

Aquawind wrote:Wake up Mike Tornado near by..LOL

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 149 AM EDT SAT OCT 22 2005 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... NORTHEASTERN BROWARD COUNTY IN SOUTH FLORIDA. * UNTIL 245 AM EDT * AT 144 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR WILTON MANORS AND OAKLAND PARK...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 5 MPH. TORNADOES ARE ESPECIALLY DANGEROUS AT NIGHT BECAUSE THEY ARE HARD TO SEE. TAKE COVER NOW! IF YOU WAIT UNTIL YOU SEE OR HEAR IT COMING...IT MAY BE TOO LATE TO GET TO A SAFE PLACE! MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM OR HALLWAY ON THE LOWEST FLOOR. LEAVE MOBILE HOMES AND VEHICLES FOR REINFORCED SHELTER. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. LAT...LON 2604 8012 2619 8001 2633 8029 2620 8047

Yeah man...just had an eyebrow raising lightning strike right outside the window here.

If that's not foreshadowing I don't know what is...

MW

CHRISTY · #9 Postby **CHRISTY** » Sat Oct 22, 2005 12:58 am

wait........ on this frame it looks to have begun a jog again to the north..

#10 Postby **MWatkins** » Sat Oct 22, 2005 12:59 am

StormWarning1 wrote:It's stalling and dissapating over the YP.

Dissipating?

Stalling...yes. Dissipating...no. It would have to stall for 3 days t fully dissipate. It will not stall for that long...unfortunately...category 4 hurricanes don't dissipate after 12 hours over land.

MW

LSue · #11 Postby **LSue** » Sat Oct 22, 2005 1:00 am

MW,

Based on the info you just gave us, what do make of Collier EOC's Landfall Impact Estimate?

http://67.8.43.251/cceoc/

Thanks for your continued dedication and patience!

Frazzled in Naples,

Linda

cape_escape · #12 Postby **cape_escape** » Sat Oct 22, 2005 1:01 am

Linda, you were going to bed an hour ago! lol

Aquawind · #13 Postby **Aquawind** » Sat Oct 22, 2005 1:03 am

Yep.. looks to be some severe weather developing early for Fla.. The wind profile on radar alone is whacked..

A Wilma TS in the morning would be dreamy..

Paul

LSue · #14 Postby **LSue** » Sat Oct 22, 2005 1:04 am

Hmmmmm Cape...

Thought you were too! :roll:

LOl..

Linda

#15 Postby **MWatkins** » Sat Oct 22, 2005 1:05 am

LSue wrote:MW,

Based on the info you just gave us, what do make of Collier EOC's Landfall Impact Estimate?

http://67.8.43.251/cceoc/

Thanks for your continued dedication and patience!

Frazzled in Naples,

Linda

Of course there remains a considerable amount of uncertainty...since we don't generally have landfalling Cat 4 hurricanes heading east toward SW Florida in late October...

However...these impact estimates still seem pretty much in line with the current forecast thinking. i wouldn't recommend any changes to these numbers based on what we know right now.

Hang in there...this could all change in the morning.

MW

Aquawind · #16 Postby **Aquawind** » Sat Oct 22, 2005 1:06 am

Wow Linda...Those are some impressive wind impacts expected..

Paul

LSue · #17 Postby **LSue** » Sat Oct 22, 2005 1:08 am

I'm hangin', I'm hangin'... (by a thread it seems!)

Many thanks...be safe!

Linda

gunner1551 · #18 Postby **gunner1551** » Sat Oct 22, 2005 1:11 am

I still cant believe all the comments about this just goin away!! Remember Stan had by my guess at the very least 5 times longer of a trip across Mexico and he was darn close to makin it!! In addition Wilma's trip will be very flat when compared to Stans mountain filled journey. It will dissapate some what but not to the degree that some on here and wishing or forcasting it will.

LSue · #19 Postby **LSue** » Sat Oct 22, 2005 1:15 am

I know Paul!

The numbers have been bouncing after every 6 hour advisory. The 5:00 wind estimates were around 94mph avg wind and I think 114mph gusts. The numbers yesterday were close to the present ones.

Are you staying? We are heading to Orlando (I know not very far north) tomorrow. We would have left earlier, but my husband just wrapped up job responsibilities a few hours ago. Plus, I was able to get my dad (he lives on the Bonita/Collier line on the east side of 41) a flight out in the morning for Atlantic City to stay with my sister. The stress is just too much for him.

Be safe,

Linda

mountainspring · #20 Postby **mountainspring** » Sat Oct 22, 2005 1:21 am

Where I can I find the model map with all of these models on them? The one on the front of Storm2k.org doesn't have NOGAPS on it, etc. I've seen a map with tons of models on it, but can't seem to find it any more. Thanks for any help you can provide!

MWatkins wrote:All of the global models...all of them...no longer anticipate any additional significant westward progress from Wilma. Both the GFDL and UKMET take the hurricane to 87.1 and 86.9W respectively...and the GFS and NOGAPS models keep the center just on or near the NE tip of the Yucatan until various times tomorrow.

From there the GFS, UKMET and GFDL suggest a landfall someplace between Everglades city (GFDL, UKMET) and Port Charlotte (GFS) with the NOGAPS closer to the southern end of that envelope but about 12 hours slower.

Looks like we are starting to see the dreaded turn back to the ENE/NE.

Going to be an interesting day tomorrow to be sure. The Gulf ridge has been shunted enough to allow Wilma to clear the Gulf by Monday night.

This should result in hurricane watches for the Keys and SW FL sometime tomorrow...and for SE FL late tomorrow...and then warnings sometime late on Sunday at this rate.

Here we go...

MW

0Z Global Models...No Additional Westward Movement Expected

0Z Global Models...No Additional Westward Movement Expected

Re: 0Z Global Models...No Additional Westward Movement Expec

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