Hurricane Wilma - Cat. 5

[thermos]

To really weaken I think it would need to go inland a few degrees and sit there for 12 hours+ -- like the NHC originally forecasted early today at 5PM. That forecast has not materialized. It is more to the east of that forecast with part of the eye still in the water. If won't spend at much time over land as they thought which should mean it won't weaken as much. Watches will probably go up for Florida tomorrow.

[CronkPSU]

are we sure it is going SW or is the thing just stalled and the eye is shrinking?

Eye is shrinking...literally has not moved over the last 3 hours

Shawn

after looking at it closer...that is what i came to the conclusion of as well, i see just one possible jog SW and the rest is just a shrinking eye

[fci]

FYI, our local met, Bob Harrigan on Channel 7 just said on the 11 pm news that Hurricane Warnings will probably go up for Sarasota County with the 11 a.m. advisory on Sunday.

Sobering.

A Local Met predicting a Warning for 36 hours from now.

Did he accompany it with a "don't change the channel- keep it here on Channel 7"???

How freakin irresponsible is that???

[fci]

Yes it did wobble SW, but yet again in an hour it can take a giant jump north, every wobble counts now, but a counter-wobble(LOL) can happen to!

Every wobble now counts for Cancun and Cozumel NOT for Florida!!

[cinlfla]

Crow will be coming in big bunches when this thing makes landfall in Florida as a hurricane.

IMO I just don't see it happaning, being a hurricane that is. For some reason that it does make landfall as a hurricane I'll have Sonny's BBQ sauce with my crow feast Thanks

[CHRISTY]

i dont get it the NHC increased the intensity to a cat 2 for florida...then they said they thought willma wouldnt spend that much time over land....but then she dips south i dont think this was forcasted so i say this may the begining of here slow death.. florida gets nothing.

[CronkPSU]

i dont get it the NHC increased the intensity to a cat 2 for florida...then they said they thought willma wouldnt spend that much time over land....but then she dips south i dont think this was forcasted so i say this may the begining of here slow death.. florida gets nothing.

this board has more wobbles than wilma...

BTW they made that forecast before the "dips south"

[thermos]

Its not wobbling SW. It is still moving very slowly NNW or N and will eventually get N of the Yucatan.

[CHRISTY]

early 2night i was worried about it just hugging the coast but its now inland the eye is filling in and this thing will die here of slow death florida is lucky once again...

[NateFLA]

Dont hold your breath. This thing aint dead till it is dead.


I cannot believe everyone who is saying it is already over right now... maybe you missed the rest of this inane season?

[inotherwords]

Remains to be seen, but I'm feeling a little better than I did at 11 p.m. Then again, I felt good at 7 p.m. and it deteriorated from there.

Let's hope we wake up to a fizzled Wilma. Night all.

[CHRISTY]

thats fine but once you take away a hurricanes energy source it cant survive for long so after this dip south to me its over unless a miracle happens.

[Bocadude85]

umm if you look at the loop she is slowly moving to the nnw not stalled and wait and see what happens when she gets back over water

[DoctorHurricane2003]

Christy, Wilma did not dip south. End of story.

[cape_escape]

Thanks doc!

[shawn67]

thats fine but once you take away a hurricanes energy source it cant survive for long so after this dip south to me its over unless a miracle happens.

Christy please dont make me regret backing you up on some of your earlier posts

Never EVER say a hurricane is simply over....
Shawn

[CHRISTY]

i must need glasses because clearly you see even the eye is filling in by 2morrow this will be a tropical storm...

[shawn67]

i must need glasses because clearly you see even the eye is filling in by 2morrow this will be a tropical storm...

sigh

[CHRISTY]

what about my earlier post i know what i said at that time it seemed like it was gonna hug the coast but clearly those chances are clearly not there no more...

[caneseddy]

000
WTNT34 KNHC 220539
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE WILMA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 27A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1 AM CDT SAT OCT 22 2005

...LARGE EYE OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE WILMA OVER PLAYA DEL
CARMEN ON THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA...RELENTESSLY POUNDING
CANCUN AND COZUMEL...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SAN FELIPE TO CHETUMAL ON
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...INCLUDING COZUMEL AND THE NEARBY ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM
WEST OF SAN FELIPE TO CELESTUN.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCES OF LA
HABANA...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE ISLE OF
YOUTH. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT IN CUBA FOR THE
PROVINCES OF MATANZAS WESTWARD THROUGH PINAR DEL RIO...AND FOR THE
ISLE OF YOUTH.

ALL INTERESTS IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE WILMA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1 AM CDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 20.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.2 WEST OVER PLAYA DEL
CARMEN YUCATAN OR ABOUT 25 MILES...45 KM...SOUTHWESTOF CANCUN
MEXICO.

WILMA HAS BEEN MEANDERING DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS BUT IS FORECAST
TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH...6 KM/HR TODAY. ON
THIS TRACK...THE CORE WILMA WILL BE AFFECTING THE EXTREME
NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA ALL DAY SATURDAY.

SINCE THE EYE IS ALREADY INLAND...MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE
PROBABLY DECREASED TO NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
WILMA REMAINS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME ADDIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS
WHILE THE CENTER OF WILMA MOVES OVER LAND.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 200 MILES...325 KM. A MEXICAN NAVY AUTOMATIC STATION LOCATED IN
ISLA MUJERES HAS BEEN REPORTING WIND GUSTS TO HURRICANE FORCE
DURING THE PAST 10 TO 12 HOURS WITH A MAXIMUM WIND GUST TO 108
MPH...173 KM/HR.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 935 MB...27.61 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 7 TO 11 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS... ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES... CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER ALONG ON THE
NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA.

WILMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 10 TO 20 INCHES OF RAIN THROUGH
SUNDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...
WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 40 INCHES POSSIBLE. OUTER RAINBANDS WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN FLORIDA... ESPECIALLY THE
KEYS... PRODUCING 2 TO 4 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH SUNDAY.

NOAA BUOY 42003 IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO INDICATES THAT LARGE
SWELLS GENERATED BY WILMA HAVE PROPAGATED WELL INTO THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

REPEATING THE 1 AM CDT POSITION...20.8 N... 87.2 W. MOVEMENT...
MEANDERING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE... 935 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
4 AM CDT.

FORECASTER AVILA