Hurricane Wilma - Cat. 5

[cjrciadt]

[Brent]

Landfall is now Sunday, again.

No... it looks to me like it's Monday Morning. The 8pm Sunday position is still WAY offshore.

[johngaltfla]

Ignore the BAMs, LBAR, XTRAP, and any of the climo models (like AH98E). Keep tabs on the GFDL, ECMWF, GFS, UKMET. Canadian is pretty bad with tropical systems. NAM is terrible with most weather systems and particularly bad with tropical systems.

The slower Wilma tracks over the next few days, the deeper the jet will be digging toward and into the NE Gulf of Mexico by late this weekend. That's a pretty strong cold front pushing south into the Gulf by Sunday afternoon. Could turn Wilma nearly due E-ENE.

I don't know if you've seen the latest animations for the GFS and GFDL and they are indicating more of a NE route; cutting through South Sarasota County to the Port Charlotte area with 120+ winds....

If you've seen them, I'd love to hear your comments, because these trends of the globals moving northward is disturbing to some of us.

http://bricker.met.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi ... =Animation

http://bricker.met.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi ... =Animation[/url]

Yeah, I had seen the GFS and GFDL. Been putting up sheetrock for 12 hours today at my mother's house near Biloxi. Two days of sheetrocking and about 60% of the walls are covered.

Anyway, I see the GFS putting the center inland near Punta Gorda around 14Z Monday. GFDL is near there, too. But it's still 3 days out, nearly. Wilma could slow down a bit more, giving the westerly winds time to build farther south into the Gulf by Monday. FL peninsula from Tampa south is definitley under-the-gun, though. Just too early to say where.

I'll trade. I'll go there and put up sheetrock. You come here Sunday and put up plywood.

I just hope those two models don't confirm with similar runs through tommorrow night. If that happens, what I feared could happen might and that's a similar path to the 1921 storm. Not identical, but similar...

[gtalum]

Based on the 2300 advisory, the "west" stuff we've been hearing all night was just the wobble, the center is still moving NNW or 330.

"Settled" or not, she's still dead on the NHC track.

[Foladar0]

Landfall is now Sunday, again.

Nope. 1 p.m. Monday it's still SW of me. Check out the NHC site for graphics....

um, huh?
The graphics I -see- on NHC site are old.
Here's the -new- graphic, which shows Sunday landfall, past FLA on Monday.

[Foladar0]

Landfall is now Sunday, again.

No... it looks to me like it's Monday Morning. The 8pm Sunday position is still WAY offshore.

Depends on how you consider a day, I figured AM hours on "Monday" .. but I still consider that Sunday seeing as I figured the sun wouldn't be up yet.
(Don't they always hit at night?)

[gtalum]

Foladra, the Sunday dot is for 8 pm. I doubt she'll cover that much ground in 4 hours. It's a Monday mornign event in this forecast.

[CronkPSU]

Based on the 2300 advisory, the "west" stuff we've been hearing all night was just the wobble, the center is still moving NNW or 330.

"Settled" or not, she's still dead on the NHC track.

true but moving quicker off the coast han the previous advisory

[LanceW]

Landfall is now Sunday, again.

Nope. 1 p.m. Monday it's still SW of me. Check out the NHC site for graphics....

um, huh?
The graphics I -see- on NHC site are old.
Here's the -new- graphic, which shows Sunday landfall, past FLA on Monday.

Those are the 8 PM locations, still a long way from land at 8 PM Sunday.

[THead]

Fyi, For those that think a cold front can't pass through s. fla in October.....Record low temps for each day of October for Ft. Laud

http://www.weather.com/activities/other/other/weather/climo-dly.html?locid=USFL0149&par=yahoo&site=www.yahoo.com&promo=climo&cm_ven=Yahoo&cm_cat=www.yahoo.com&cm_pla=climopage&cm_ite=CityPage

[johngaltfla]

Deleted..

[cinlfla]

[thermos]

looks to be huging the coast..

She's already halfway onshore. She's slowly moving NW, right along the NHC's track. Sorry.

No. The NHC track was more west and deeper inland.

[Foladar0]

THAT is the 2300 3 day forecast. Note the position and location. North of the last advisory, and still at sea at 1300 on 24.10.2005.

The time (1pm monday) in which it is SW of FLA shows the 4PM CDT time which would be the 5pm track?

[Normandy]

Latest IR shows a cyclonic loop....more time for Cancun in the outer eyewall it seems.

[Brent]

Landfall is now Sunday, again.

No... it looks to me like it's Monday Morning. The 8pm Sunday position is still WAY offshore.

Depends on how you consider a day, I figured AM hours on "Monday" .. but I still consider that Sunday seeing as I figured the sun wouldn't be up yet.
(Don't they always hit at night?)

In this case, I'm thinking mid-to-late morning... it would really have to be flying otherwise.

*wishes the NHC did a 60-hour point*

[johngaltfla]

THAT is the 2300 3 day forecast. Note the position and location. North of the last advisory, and still at sea at 1300 on 24.10.2005.

The time (1pm monday) in which it is SW of FLA shows the 4PM CDT time which would be the 5pm track?

My bad...post deleted.

[Foladar0]

Landfall is now Sunday, again.

No... it looks to me like it's Monday Morning. The 8pm Sunday position is still WAY offshore.

Depends on how you consider a day, I figured AM hours on "Monday" .. but I still consider that Sunday seeing as I figured the sun wouldn't be up yet.
(Don't they always hit at night?)

In this case, I'm thinking mid-to-late morning... it would really have to be flying otherwise.

*wishes the NHC did a 60-hour point*

That would change it then, but they did speed it up nonetheless from what I saw, I thought the dots were 1PM dots like the NHCs.

[DrStorm]

She's already halfway onshore. She's slowly moving NW, right along the NHC's track. Sorry.

LOL, you almost got me there.

[Brent]

That would change it then, but they did speed it up nonetheless from what I saw, I thought the dots were 1PM dots like the NHCs.

1pm at 4pm... but 7pm at 10pm... 1am at 4am... and 7am at 10am.

Have a headache yet?