Wilma about to be influenced by trough! Maybe no stall......

[dixiebreeze]

Hmmm... i think there might be a surprise, but not that it will be a stronger storm. I just read NEXRAD's post in the Tropical Analisys forum, and he mentions the possibility that the storm might go into extratropical transition before hitting Fl. With the strong trough coming in, i can totally see his point. An interesting effect of this would be an expansion of the wind and rain into central, and even Northeast FL.

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=77298

In essence, another 1993 NoName Storm that devastated West Central Florida with major flooding and hurricane force winds and then sent a Nor'Easter up the Atlantic Coast. Not an impossible scenario!

[k-man]

You guys are killing me....

This thing will be a cat one...and come in where the NHC has been saying all along....Naples.

[Emmett_Brown]

Yup... i could totally see that. Throw a cat 2/3 and a strong cold front together, and presto... big nasty mess a bit further north than people are expecting.

Nexrad is careful to caution those in S FL not to take their eye off the ball, but several models including the GFS suggest some transition taking place before FL.

In situations like this, dry air wraps around from the NW to the S, and the S side of the storm dries out. The wind and rain then move to the N side, and move further away from the center.

[Emmett_Brown]

You guys are killing me....

This thing will be a cat one...and come in where the NHC has been saying all along....Naples.

I agree with the Cat 1 part, not so sure about the Naples part or the this being a purely tropical system by the time it reaches FL.

Even the NAM model shows a cold front exiting the south part of the state by Sunday... hard to imagine a hurricane making it unscathed through a cold front without interacting in some way.

[gtalum]

She is ever so slowly wobbling her way NW right along the NHC track. Almost like she's stalled. Hmmm, where have we heard predictions of a stall?

So much for the relevance of this thread.

[soonertwister]

She is ever so slowly wobbling her way NW right along the NHC track. Almost like she's stalled. Hmmm, where have we heard predictions of a stall?

So much for the relevance of this thread.

It that based upon two or three wobble movements of this storm, or over six or more hours of observation?

Let's see if you can say the same thing six or twelve hours from now. I have a hunch that you will be wrong.

In fact, I'll predict that 12 hours from now Wilma will not have any eyewall winds on the Yucatan.

So much for the relevance of my post.

[gtalum]

It that based upon two or three wobble movements of this storm, or over six or more hours of observation?

it's based on the fact that with the exception of two frames she's been exactly ont he NHC 5:00 pm forecast path. And she's starting to do exactly what they said she'd do: stall on the Yuctaan Peninsula.

In fact, I'll predict that 12 hours from now Wilma will not have any eyewall winds on the Yucatan.

I predict you're wrong. Let's check the 13:45 visible frame tomorrow morning.

[Stratosphere747]

She is ever so slowly wobbling her way NW right along the NHC track. Almost like she's stalled. Hmmm, where have we heard predictions of a stall?

So much for the relevance of this thread.

It that based upon two or three wobble movements of this storm, or over six or more hours of observation?

Let's see if you can say the same thing six or twelve hours from now. I have a hunch that you will be wrong.

In fact, I'll predict that 12 hours from now Wilma will not have any eyewall winds on the Yucatan.

So much for the relevance of my post.

Sooner...

If I could come into this discussion..

The consensus of this board for the most part has been doing almost everything possible to argue against the track of the NHC. I'll chalk it up to plain concern for their areas, and respectfully they have every right to ask questions.

The simple fact is that the track is almost dead on to what the NHC has predicted in the short term.

Scott

[gatorcane]

the NHC had it hitting SW FL as early as Sat and now it won't be hitting until Tues. That has caused alot of stress and anxiety over S. Florida for no reason.

So yes, they did predict a stall but only about hours before it actually happened. If they would have predicted this a couole of days ago, it would have been an excellent call.

[Stratosphere747]

the NHC had it hitting SW FL as early as Sat and now it won't be hitting until Tues. That has caused alot of stress and anxiety over S. Florida for no reason.

So yes, they did predict a stall but only about hours before it actually happened. If they would have predicted this a could of days ago, it would have been an excellent call.

Where have you been?

Maybe you missed the discussion from Max Mayfield the last few days?

[gatorcane]

a couple of days ago it was headed for SW FL Sat afternoon.

Now its pushed out 48 hours. That's a huge margin of error.

[Foladar0]

the NHC had it hitting SW FL as early as Sat and now it won't be hitting until Tues. That has caused alot of stress and anxiety over S. Florida for no reason.

So yes, they did predict a stall but only about hours before it actually happened. If they would have predicted this a couole of days ago, it would have been an excellent call.

11PM says it will be off the coast already (past FLA by a bit) on Monday. They've sped it up.

[gunner1551]

What would stop this thing from going higher then a cat 3??

[floridahurricaneguy]

Interesting, I think track could end up further north. Going extratropical would be interesting. How possible is that?

Matt

[LanceW]

the NHC had it hitting SW FL as early as Sat and now it won't be hitting until Tues. That has caused alot of stress and anxiety over S. Florida for no reason.

So yes, they did predict a stall but only about hours before it actually happened. If they would have predicted this a couole of days ago, it would have been an excellent call.

11PM says it will be off the coast already (past FLA by a bit) on Monday. They've sped it up.

Not much, that is the 8PM estimation, pretty close to what they had I think.

[Foladar0]

[misunderstood]

[soonertwister]

She is ever so slowly wobbling her way NW right along the NHC track. Almost like she's stalled. Hmmm, where have we heard predictions of a stall?

So much for the relevance of this thread.

It that based upon two or three wobble movements of this storm, or over six or more hours of observation?

Let's see if you can say the same thing six or twelve hours from now. I have a hunch that you will be wrong.

In fact, I'll predict that 12 hours from now Wilma will not have any eyewall winds on the Yucatan.

So much for the relevance of my post.

Sooner...

If I could come into this discussion..

The consensus of this board for the most part has been doing almost everything possible to argue against the track of the NHC. I'll chalk it up to plain concern for their areas, and respectfully they have every right to ask questions.

The simple fact is that the track is almost dead on to what the NHC has predicted in the short term.

Scott

NHC's track forecast from 4PM CDT today had Wilma exiting the northeastern tip of Yucatan near midnight tomorrow. That's more than 24 hours from now. You can defend NHC all you want on track confidence, but they have consistently stated that they had low confidence in their own track and timing based upon divergence of the models that they use to background their predictions.

Nothing they have done is wrong. They basically said they wouldn't be surprised if their forecast was wrong. Now it appears it will be wrong. Please don't give me satellite pics of the last 1-1/2 hours to support any kind of theorem about the track of this storm. The western side is being sheared away, which means all of the potency of this storm will be over the water.

I'm no god, I can't make the earth and sun move. But I can deal with what my eyes and brain tell me. I don't have great confidence in their track speed and short-term forecast for Wilma. NHC wouldn't have been embarrassed to say the same, they've been telling us all along.

Let's wait a few hours before we grant sainthood to the track that NHC said was quite possibly wrong. It may have actually been wrong. And that would not be surprising to me, nor to them.

Go to the NHC archive and look at the track forecast history. It's been very good overall as usual. But in the short term it's been around average for them for recent years, which makes them light-years ahead of any other source for confidence on track.

I still think that Wilma will not spend anywhere near 30 hours over land.

I will say that one thing that I find very irritating about their track forecasts is how they change the format from one to the next. They move the legend randomly from this corner to that, the scale from one to another, they move the central focus of the track by hundreds of miles when the hurricane has moved 60.

That tells me that they feel confortable in an environment of radical change, which doesn't make me appreciate what they are doing.

[Brent]

5pm forecast for 2pm Monday:

72HR VT 24/1800Z 25.5N 82.5W 80 KT

Which is offshore SW FL...

11pm forecast for 8pm Monday:

27.0N 80.0W

Or moving offshore the East Coast...

So it seems to be a bit faster.

It also seems to be a hair further south...

[Brent]

I still think that Wilma will not spend anywhere near 30 hours over land.

They have it offshore tomorrow evening now...

[Foladar0]

5pm forecast for 2pm Monday:

72HR VT 24/1800Z 25.5N 82.5W 80 KT

Which is offshore SW FL...

11pm forecast for 8pm Monday:

27.0N 80.0W

Or moving offshore the East Coast...

So it seems to be a bit faster.

It also seems to be a hair further south...

Hmm, a hair south? Push it north, NORTTHH!!!