The trough and Wilma. Could it aid strengthening?

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ALhurricane
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The trough and Wilma. Could it aid strengthening?

#1 Postby ALhurricane » Fri Oct 21, 2005 8:27 pm

The trough that will eventually pick up Wilma and send her off to the NE may actually be able to help Wilma strengthen... it all depends on the placement..

For instance, take a look at the 72hr 12Z GFS 4 Panel...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _072.shtml

Now in that forecast Wilma will be under the right rear entrance of a very potent 150kt upper level jet. As most of you know, that is a very divergent portion of the jet and would help to evacuate the air out of Wilma. This in turn could help Wilma to keep her own or intensify. It is not the classic pattern for strengthening, but storms have strengthened as a result (Charley last year.)

Of course the Yucatan will play a big role in the future intensity, but I thought this was worth mentioning. Conditions may not be as unfavorable as some think.
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Re: The trough and Wilma. Could it aid strengthening?

#2 Postby Brent » Fri Oct 21, 2005 8:28 pm

ALhurricane wrote:(Charley last year.)


Geez thanks. :eek:
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Foladar0

#3 Postby Foladar0 » Fri Oct 21, 2005 8:29 pm

Always something to think of, thanks :) Appreciate your contribution, soo many things to think of, I feel for the NHC.
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#4 Postby ALhurricane » Fri Oct 21, 2005 8:29 pm

It is certainly not a forecast on my part, just an observation regarding a possibility. I do not think this would be the Charely type event.
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krysof

#5 Postby krysof » Fri Oct 21, 2005 8:32 pm

ALhurricane wrote:It is certainly not a forecast on my part, just an observation regarding a possibility. I do not think this would be the Charely type event.


We just know what will happen this year, remember this year does not follow climatology. Anything could happen, I don't think anyone forecasted Wilma to deepen so rapidly and become the most powerful atlantic hurricane on record with 882 mbs.
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jhamps10

#6 Postby jhamps10 » Fri Oct 21, 2005 8:35 pm

krysof wrote:
ALhurricane wrote:It is certainly not a forecast on my part, just an observation regarding a possibility. I do not think this would be the Charely type event.


We just know what will happen this year, remember this year does not follow climatology. Anything could happen, I don't think anyone forecasted Wilma to deepen so rapidly and become the most powerful atlantic hurricane on record with 882 mbs.


I don't think anyone forcasted MOST of the hurricanes to deepen like they have this year, truely historic just on the number of cat 5's
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