Hurricane Wilma - Cat. 5

[krysof]

most of those models are bad especially the Lbar and the Bam models are not much better

And the GFDL?

the gfdl is usually a good model, but in this case it pulled a lot of weird stuff for the past couple of days so I'm not really sure which model to belive in

[johngaltfla]

I can't wait until people in Tampa jump on the three most unreliable and useless models out there showing a hit there...BAMD, A98E, and LBAR.

Uh, and the latest GFDL run? That puts the storm very close to the LBAR which has consistently been in the Tampa Bay area.

Don't dismiss the LBAR out of hand. If it's right, you'll have to request bbq sauce for your crow.

The GFDL is very close to the NHC right now, and I think its a good track. I will remain true to my word...If those models verify and Tampa gets a direct hit, I will no longer post on this board.

Uh, that's South Sarasota County to Port Charlotte. The NHC line isn't anywhere CLOSE to that....

[jkt21787]

most of those models are bad especially the Lbar and the Bam models are not much better

And the GFDL?

GFDL is generally a good model (especially this year) but it has its moments as well. It would easily be the most reliable model of any of those others on the graphic.

[jkt21787]

I can't wait until people in Tampa jump on the three most unreliable and useless models out there showing a hit there...BAMD, A98E, and LBAR.

Uh, and the latest GFDL run? That puts the storm very close to the LBAR which has consistently been in the Tampa Bay area.

Don't dismiss the LBAR out of hand. If it's right, you'll have to request bbq sauce for your crow.

The GFDL is very close to the NHC right now, and I think its a good track. I will remain true to my word...If those models verify and Tampa gets a direct hit, I will no longer post on this board.

Uh, that's South Sarasota County to Port Charlotte. The NHC line isn't anywhere CLOSE to that....

Dude, the red line just below the GFDL is the NHC. IMO thats very close to being on it for the time period we're at.

[johngaltfla]

I can't wait until people in Tampa jump on the three most unreliable and useless models out there showing a hit there...BAMD, A98E, and LBAR.

Uh, and the latest GFDL run? That puts the storm very close to the LBAR which has consistently been in the Tampa Bay area.

Don't dismiss the LBAR out of hand. If it's right, you'll have to request bbq sauce for your crow.

The GFDL is very close to the NHC right now, and I think its a good track. I will remain true to my word...If those models verify and Tampa gets a direct hit, I will no longer post on this board.

Uh, that's South Sarasota County to Port Charlotte. The NHC line isn't anywhere CLOSE to that....

Dude, the red line just below the GFDL is the NHC. IMO thats very close to being on it for the time period we're at.

Ignore the redline. Go to the PSU or FSU models page. Run it. You'll see what we're talking about.

[jkt21787]

I can't wait until people in Tampa jump on the three most unreliable and useless models out there showing a hit there...BAMD, A98E, and LBAR.

Uh, and the latest GFDL run? That puts the storm very close to the LBAR which has consistently been in the Tampa Bay area.

Don't dismiss the LBAR out of hand. If it's right, you'll have to request bbq sauce for your crow.

The GFDL is very close to the NHC right now, and I think its a good track. I will remain true to my word...If those models verify and Tampa gets a direct hit, I will no longer post on this board.

Uh, that's South Sarasota County to Port Charlotte. The NHC line isn't anywhere CLOSE to that....

Dude, the red line just below the GFDL is the NHC. IMO thats very close to being on it for the time period we're at.

Ignore the redline. Go to the PSU or FSU models page. Run it. You'll see what we're talking about.

Ignore the red line? So you are basically saying ingore the NHC track. Yeah right...

[Brent]

Red is the NHC... pink is the GFDL.

[CHRISTY]

job b. finally confiming what ive seening about this north movement...

[johngaltfla]

Red is the NHC... pink is the GFDL.

I give up. I just watched the AVN/GFS animation and it's almost identical to the GFDL.

I think the northern movement and paralleling on the Yucatan coast could be very bad news and a rude awakening for many.

[wxwatcher2]

job b. finally confiming what ive seening about this north movement...

I'm at work, what's JB saying???

[Foladar0]

I can't wait until people in Tampa jump on the three most unreliable and useless models out there showing a hit there...BAMD, A98E, and LBAR.

Uh, and the latest GFDL run? That puts the storm very close to the LBAR which has consistently been in the Tampa Bay area.

Don't dismiss the LBAR out of hand. If it's right, you'll have to request bbq sauce for your crow.

The GFDL's been all over the place, nobody has a good handle on this storm, it could go anywhere in Florida.

[johngaltfla]

job b. finally confiming what ive seening about this north movement...

I'm at work, what's JB saying???

He's quoting and copying Christy's words. She should sue him (Just kidding).

He's sayind and seeing the storm hugging the coast, like typhoons do around Formosa, then moving north and possibly hitting Florida as a strong 2 or Cat 3. He's not moving his landfall point again but saying that it could still be a major when it hits.

[Brent]

The GFDL has a landfall at Port Charlotte. That's not very far north of the NHC.

[DrStorm]

job b. finally confiming what ive seening about this north movement...

Good Christy, now you can politely give the finger to everyone that's been ripping you for your observations. And some of them really deserve it.

[Brent]

job b. finally confiming what ive seening about this north movement...

Good Christy, now you can politely give the finger to everyone that's been ripping you for your observations. And some of them really deserve it.

[TampaFl]

Some models have shifted more northly Thoughts and comments welcomed.

Robert

[CHRISTY]

thanks.. iam just complementing on what iam seeing and to me this storm does not want to go onland. joeb on fox news said if that eye stays intact spells trouble for florida. as far as location he miami and keys area.

[johngaltfla]

The GFDL has a landfall at Port Charlotte. That's not very far north of the NHC.

It is for those of us 30 miles from Port Charlotte.....

[ronjon]

Boy, I know its only one model run, but the 18Z GFDL is scary for Sarasota County residents. A CAT 3 storm with 120 mph winds smashing into Venice in 66-72 hrs. I don't like the trend in the models shifting north. It started with the GFS on yesterdays runs and continues today. The NOGAPS has been on and off shifting its track between Tampa and Ft Myers. It looks as though the new models are picking up on a slightly more amplified trough which would move Wilma more NE rather than E-NE. If I look where Wilma has traveled the last 6 hours and where she is likely to go, the new GFDL seems to have it pretty close, with just a short run over the NE tip of the YP. All I've heard from the local TV METs and CNN too is that this storm is gonna weaken considerably over the YUC and only be a CAT 1 by the time it gets to FL. Right now, that doesn't look to pan out. There could be surprised people in Tampa tomorrow if the models and Wilma trend even slightly more northward.


http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

[Wacahootaman]

That GFDL run shows a stronger, and better organized cane hitting Florida than its previous runs

Dont like this trend a tall!