Hurricane Wilma - Cat. 5

Bgator · #3181 Postby **Bgator** » Fri Oct 21, 2005 7:59 pm

El Nino wrote:So still a cat3 hurricane for parts of Florida, but mostly cat2. And some nice weather for Miami too

I sthat sarcastic? lol j/k has cat 1 winds over miami, and remmeber model will change, not majorly but will not BE THE EXACT same!

El Nino · #3182 Postby **El Nino** » Fri Oct 21, 2005 8:01 pm

Of course this is sarcastic, don't worry for that. I hope you'll be safe in any case :wink:

#3183 Postby **tronbunny** » Fri Oct 21, 2005 8:01 pm

latest Suite (BAMM, LBAR, A98E) as posted above, all have a cat1 hitting between Sarasota and Cedar Key (ish) and exiting between Daytona and Jax...
Someone please check that!
(I think my eyes are tired)

Now the 18z GFDL gives Florida a Cat2-3 into Sarasota, out of Titusville, with the bulk of the nastiness all over South FL. on Monday eve, finally beating up Cape Cod with Cat1-2 winds on Tuesday night!

:eek:

Don't like ANY of them at all!

Toro694 · #3184 Postby **Toro694** » Fri Oct 21, 2005 8:01 pm

Hey El Nino, nice to see spomeone from Peru here. My wife is from Chiclayo. I spent 3 weeks there with her in March. Nice people. But I will admit I was really ready for a nice philly cheese steak sub when we got home. Wasn't thrilled with the food. Although the chicken was splendid.
The arid climate caught me off guard though. We will go to the lush jungle areas next trip though. She has family in Terrapoto.

#3185 Postby **gatorcane** » Fri Oct 21, 2005 8:02 pm

models are shifting back north again....

Toro694 · #3186 Postby **Toro694** » Fri Oct 21, 2005 8:03 pm

Hey Tron, where are you seeing these models? The last I saw they all looked to be converging onthe Naples/Ft. Myers area.

jkt21787 · #3187 Postby **jkt21787** » Fri Oct 21, 2005 8:03 pm

I can't wait until people in Tampa jump on the three most unreliable and useless models out there showing a hit there...BAMD, A98E, and LBAR.

thunderchief · #3188 Postby **thunderchief** » Fri Oct 21, 2005 8:04 pm

seriously, those models shouldnt even be publicly disseminated.

johngaltfla · #3189 Postby **johngaltfla** » Fri Oct 21, 2005 8:04 pm

boca_chris wrote:models are shifting back north again....

I'm voting for STORM CANCEL.

Any others who approve, please tell Wilma.

:eek:

#3190 Postby **cjrciadt** » Fri Oct 21, 2005 8:05 pm

none in the straights anymore.

#3191 Postby **gatorcane** » Fri Oct 21, 2005 8:05 pm

hey maybe not. I think Tampa Bay or a little south. I've been thinking this for a week now.

johngaltfla · #3192 Postby **johngaltfla** » Fri Oct 21, 2005 8:06 pm

jkt21787 wrote:I can't wait until people in Tampa jump on the three most unreliable and useless models out there showing a hit there...BAMD, A98E, and LBAR.

Uh, and the latest GFDL run? That puts the storm very close to the LBAR which has consistently been in the Tampa Bay area.

Don't dismiss the LBAR out of hand. If it's right, you'll have to request bbq sauce for your crow.

Toro694 · #3193 Postby **Toro694** » Fri Oct 21, 2005 8:06 pm

Well JKT they are mentioning the GFDL now making a line to Sarasota. The others I do not have much faith in, the GFDL is supposed to be a pretty reliable model. But I have not seen these models myself yet.

jkt21787 · #3194 Postby **jkt21787** » Fri Oct 21, 2005 8:07 pm

johngaltfla wrote:
jkt21787 wrote:I can't wait until people in Tampa jump on the three most unreliable and useless models out there showing a hit there...BAMD, A98E, and LBAR.

Uh, and the latest GFDL run? That puts the storm very close to the LBAR which has consistently been in the Tampa Bay area.

Don't dismiss the LBAR out of hand. If it's right, you'll have to request bbq sauce for your crow.

The GFDL is very close to the NHC right now, and I think its a good track. I will remain true to my word...If those models verify and Tampa gets a direct hit, I will no longer post on this board.

Toro694 · #3195 Postby **Toro694** » Fri Oct 21, 2005 8:08 pm

Uh, that's not Sarasota. That is Charlotte Harbor the GFDL is slicing through.

El Nino · #3196 Postby **El Nino** » Fri Oct 21, 2005 8:09 pm

Hmmm really losing power on its NWside. Maybe some air for Florida ?

krysof · #3197 Postby **krysof** » Fri Oct 21, 2005 8:10 pm

most of those models are bad especially the Lbar and the Bam models are not much better

johngaltfla · #3198 Postby **johngaltfla** » Fri Oct 21, 2005 8:11 pm

krysof wrote:most of those models are bad especially the Lbar and the Bam models are not much better

And the GFDL?

#3199 Postby **tronbunny** » Fri Oct 21, 2005 8:12 pm

I have to agree about the BAMM, A98E and LBAR....
They're really not incredibly useful, here.. maybe for statistical trivia.
But the GFS isn't all tropical, and the GFDL has tended to over exaggerrate intensities this season.
But what else can you rely on?
I believe the NHC will come north at 11pm.

In 24 hours If it looks the same, I'm putting up plywood.

The models are suggesting Jeanne and Frances-like conditions for a much shorter period than those 2 storms, but that should be enough for Floridians south of I-4 to be prepared.

thunderchief · #3200 Postby **thunderchief** » Fri Oct 21, 2005 8:12 pm

land interaction... a 4 cant sit right on a coast for long without weakening.

Hurricane Wilma - Cat. 5

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