Wilma about to be influenced by trough! Maybe no stall......

[Nimbus]

For what its worth the upper level steering winds seem to have shifted the last few hours.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8dlm6.GIF

This is a derivative product with some human interpretation involved but it does look like the steering is now more from the south than earlier today.

The high to the east of Wilma seems to be dominating again. When Wilma was a stronger cane she was pumping this eastern ridge up with her outflow. Perhaps now that she is weakening she will be steered by the flow?

[soonertwister]

I prefer this loop. No due W wobble at all.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-vis-loop.html

Your right Chris. The worst loop to look at is the infared

You mean paying attention to the eye is less important that paying attention to the circulaton away from the eye? That's news to me, and it's not how hurricane position is tracked.

[kittcat]

Look at this satellite link. It almost looks like it took a jog to the south. Last update at 00:15.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satelli ... duration=6

[gatorcane]

For what its worth the upper level steering winds seem to have shifted the last few hours.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8dlm6.GIF

This is a derivative product with some human interpretation involved but it does look like the steering is now more from the south than earlier today.

The high to the east of Wilma seems to be dominating again. When Wilma was a stronger cane she was pumping this eastern ridge up with her outflow. Perhaps now that she is weakening she will be steered by the flow?

That would explain it. Also it would mean a hit in FL more north up the coast. Say Sarasota/Bradenton/Venice.

[Josephine96]

Sounds like it to me as well Boca, Maybe further up the west coast shouldn't be riding this 1 off yet..

[joseph01]

Look at this satellite link. It almost looks like it took a jog to the south. Last update at 00:15.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satelli ... duration=6

That's indeed odd, but it wasn't a jog to the south. If you look closely, every feature in the entire image makes that little jump.

[Josephine96]

maybe the satellite is on steroids

[Foladar0]

Look at this satellite link. It almost looks like it took a jog to the south. Last update at 00:15.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satelli ... duration=6

That's indeed odd, but it wasn't a jog to the south. If you look closely, every feature in the entire image makes that little jump.

Yeah I saw that too . . . The news was saying that the jog to the north might just be that, a wobble, could be a start to the north movement, could be a start to the NE movement, we have to wait and see.

[sprink52]

I'll definitely give it a NNW as opposed to NM. I also notice in the 7 hour time lapse of the loop that if the initial motion is maitained, Wilma won't be over land more than 7~8 hours and I don't see the eye completely over land. I think you guys have an intetresting discussion going...keep it up. I have about half of my shutters up(the easy ones) and plan to do the rest tomorow.
I have a gut feeling about this storm. I think it's only going to graze the Yucatan.

[gatorcane]

yeah it could graze it but once it gets past it then what? Will the trough be there in time to start pushing it NE or will it continue N farther?

I'm really concerned it will make it north farther than the NHC line is showing right now.

[sprink52]

I guess we could look at the isobar maps and see the approach of the trough.

[CHRISTY]

yep its huging the coast!! huge impacts if this movement holds true for florida.

[Aquawind]

Sorry, did I forget to include your IQ listed after your screen name. Forgive me. Look at the CONUS WV Loop.

Fodolar

Nope, you just forgot your maturity, if you even have any ..

Please Stop this NOW!! I would hate for anyone to miss the rest of Wilma on Storm2K..Your both a click away..

REMINDER.. http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=74985


Paul

[sprink52]

I just talked to my brother in Birmingham, Alabama ...told me it will be in mid 30's there Mon morning and he said that he thinks the front started thru there late this afternoon...so it's on it's way. Maybe if Brent reads this he can let us know how it is at his place in East central Alabama. I think he is near Eufaula, AL on the GA line.

[soonertwister]

As Wilma continues to drift generally toward the north, we are rapidly running out of Yucatan land for her to stall over. By my estimate it's just a mere 1 degree until she's north of the Yucutan.

The NCH 4PM track has her over the Yucutan for around 30 hours. I just can't see that happening now, even if she gets completely over land, she won't be there for long, maybe only 12 or 15 hours. And that whole time most of the circulation will be over water.

There's very noticeable erosion on the western eyewall, but I think that may serve to turn Wilma more to the east rather than the west. Eyewall erosion = weaker winds = higher pressure. She will want to turn to where the resistance is less.

[Josephine96]

Sooner,

would her turn eventually cause her to go further up the West Coast..?

[sprink52]

Very good observation Sooner. I just checked a map of the Yucatan and that section near Cancun is only 75 miles across at most. At 6~7 mph the time over land will be <12 hours.??

[soonertwister]

My thoughts about a track further north or south are that I don't know. Others have made valid points about an earlier turning infuence helping to allow Wilma go further up the coast, my intuition, which is questionable, says that an earlier turn means more to the east, thus further south.

I'm guessing we won't have that answer for at least another day.

And regarding time over land, Wilma has been moving very slowly, only about 4 miles per hour. But that's pretty common during a turn, followed by more rapid speed, especially when toward the northeast. My guess is that she will average at least 6-7 miles per hour over the next 24, which means that even if the eye does get completely over land, it won't be there for long at all. She's already near the extreme northeast of the Yucatan, she'd have to go southwest to spend a lot more time over land.

And I don't see that happening for more that a short jog or two, at the most.

[jhamps10]

very good obsveration sooner, I have to agree with what people are saying on here with Wilma not hitting the yucatan. I hate to say this, but I think the NHC might have a suprise up their sleeve, JB has already called a cat 3 in MIA if the eye is still in good shape by tommorow afternoon. My note to people in Central/South Florida. Be prepared for anything from a TS to a cat 4. not saying it will be a cat 4, but better safe than sorry.

[Emmett_Brown]

Hmmm... i think there might be a surprise, but not that it will be a stronger storm. I just read NEXRAD's post in the Tropical Analisys forum, and he mentions the possibility that the storm might go into extratropical transition before hitting Fl. With the strong trough coming in, i can totally see his point. An interesting effect of this would be an expansion of the wind and rain into central, and even Northeast FL.

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=77298