Wilma about to be influenced by trough! Maybe no stall......

[johngaltfla]

:eek:

+ 1



Guess I'll go get the plywood out of the shed.

Rats.

[gtalum]

It's actually a bump NW, I see as I slow it down. I still think it'll be more west on the next frame.

[conestogo_flood]

Ok, I have been gone for about two hours. What am I missing! This trough could increase the speed of Wilma, and we would see an earlier landfall, but in a different location than Collier County? Huh, I don't get where you all are coming from!

[gatorcane]

to the infinity lol.

That's why I love storm2k. We are so anal. lol.

[soonertwister]

I believe that Wilma has started her turn to the northeast. Don't think she will get farther west, may not get the eyewall completely over land.

The latest motion looks quite unlike a wobble, and she's now moving about 10-15 degrees east of due north.

But she's weakening noticeably right now as observed on IR. How much much she can intensify in cooler waters and with increasing shear is questionable. Earlier today I imagined the possibility of Wilma moving farther north by sheer system inertia, but the same forces that have turned her (in my admittedly amateur estimation) will keep her to the south side of the forecast track. May track as far south as over Key West and right into Miami, in fact. The question is, what kind of storm would arrive there? That would also mean a faster arrival time by quite a few hours.

Or it could be that she tries to take a more northerly track and keeps bumping into that trough, ripping herself to pieces in futility.

I certainly hope for the scenario that rips her apart, leaving nothing but tropical squalls as she hits the US mainland.

[gatorcane]

In a nutshell:

We are seeing some N wobbles which may indicate the eye being over land less so the intensity forecast would change drastically. In addition with Wilma gaining more lattitude, it's possible the first trough is pulling her some to the north more than anticipated which will allow the second trough to boot her farther north proportional to the y-component displacement from the 5pm NHC forecast point to the point at which the second trough picks her up.

[TheShrimper]

Fodolar, I hate to burst your bubble, but the trough that is gonna pull this NE is in Nebraska at this time.

[krysof]

but that weak trough continues to head south and east possibly causing more north wobbles, so basically Wilma is waiting at a bus stop or a train station getting ready to be picked up by the second trough which is a good analogy for what it will do

[gatorcane]

Fodolar, I hate to burst your bubble, but the trough that is gonna pull this NE is in Nebraska at this time.

it must be a long distance relationship for her then.

lol.

Now that was cheesy.

[WeatherEmperor]

hate to dissappoint some of you but look at the latest image from 00Z from the nasa website. looks like a nice west jog at the end.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconusir.html

<RICKY>

[Foladar0]

Fodolar, I hate to burst your bubble, but the trough that is gonna pull this NE is in Nebraska at this time.

I think I'd rather listen to the news rather than someone who can't spell something correct when it's sitting right infront of them.

[Foladar0]

And to sum it up, I think nobody has any idea where or when this is going right now.
It's too unpredictable at the moment, it's going to hit Florida, it looks like, period.
I wish it'd run into the trough and shred, though.

[gatorcane]

I prefer this loop. No due W wobble at all.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-vis-loop.html

[WeatherEmperor]

I prefer this loop. No due W wobble at all.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-vis-loop.html

that site doesnt have the updated 00Z images as that site is usually a bit late in updating. Look at the 00Z image from the NASA website I posted and see that slight West jog.

<RICKY>

[Eyes2theSkies]

I prefer this loop. No due W wobble at all.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-vis-loop.html

Your right Chris. The worst loop to look at is the infared

[gatorcane]

well I would expect maybe a w bounce. But you would have to agree it is going to miss the NHC forecast points to the E.

[WeatherEmperor]

yea perhaps it will.

<RICKY>

[Foladar0]

well I would expect maybe a w bounce. But you would have to agree it is going to miss the NHC forecast points to the E.

Looks like it will, but we won't know yet.

[gatorcane]

if it misses with a fairly large error expect the following at 11pm:

1) major change in the intensity forecast. Much stronger FL hit.

2) track into FL adjusted about 50 miles north (Ft. MYers/Cape Coral/Punta Gorda)

[krysof]

and westward wobble just equals more incredible damage in the Yucatan, I'm afraid to know the damages after Wilma exits that region