Wilma about to be influenced by trough! Maybe no stall......

[Foladar0]

She really looks like she wants to avoid land, thanks for your opinion guys, we'll see .. all this waiting is no fun hehe

[gatorcane]

if it continues northward, then it would hit further north, the more west it moves, the quicker the recurvature to the east will be meaning more southward, the storm would turn more NE if the northward track continues
Tampa should watch this one.

Yes that is what I think also. See my post above yours.

[gtalum]

If the trough is pulling it out now, the storm begins its turn earlier than predicted. IMHO this means it will be further south. It's turning further south and further east than the NHC predicted track. Both of these factors (south and east) mean a farther south landfall in FL. This is all a big if. The north movement is only 1-2 frames on visible, and may be just a wobble.

[Foladar0]

If the trough is pulling it out now, the storm begins its turn earlier than predicted. IMHO this means it will be further south. It's turning further south and further east than the NHC predicted track. Both of these factors (south and east) mean a farther south landfall in FL. This is all a big if. The north movement is only 1-2 frames on visible, and may be just a wobble.

Thats also what I figured, but was unsure.

[MiamiensisWx]

Here is the latest infra-red floater...
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html

[krysof]

If the trough is pulling it out now, the storm begins its turn earlier than predicted. IMHO this means it will be further south. It's turning further south and further east than the NHC predicted track. Both of these factors (south and east) mean a farther south landfall in FL. This is all a big if. The north movement is only 1-2 frames on visible, and may be just a wobble.

but this trough will not recurve it, it will be the one after this one, this one can pull it far enough northward to make a recurvature and landfall further northward on the florida coast-and yes this is a big if, but I see the trough digging in into the gulf which may pull it much further north than the models suggest

[gatorcane]

If the trough is pulling it out now, the storm begins its turn earlier than predicted. IMHO this means it will be further south. It's turning further south and further east than the NHC predicted track. Both of these factors (south and east) mean a farther south landfall in FL. This is all a big if. The north movement is only 1-2 frames on visible, and may be just a wobble.

The north movement now is not being caused by the trough per se, but very weak stearing currents and the interaction with land. So if it continues to drift north, it's position will be at a higher lattitude when the trough arrives a little later (Sat night/Sun) which would push her NE farther north on the W coast of FL.

[gtalum]

Let's just say I'm not buying it.

[gatorcane]

krysof your theory is good too. Maybe the weak trough now is forcing it north enough to put it in position for the second strong trough (in GOM by Sat. night/Sun) to pull it NE into Tampa Bay.

[Foladar0]

If the trough is pulling it out now, the storm begins its turn earlier than predicted. IMHO this means it will be further south. It's turning further south and further east than the NHC predicted track. Both of these factors (south and east) mean a farther south landfall in FL. This is all a big if. The north movement is only 1-2 frames on visible, and may be just a wobble.

but this trough will not recurve it, it will be the one after this one, this one can pull it far enough northward to make a recurvature and landfall further northward on the florida coast-and yes this is a big if, but I see the trough digging in into the gulf which may pull it much further north than the models suggest

This trough coming through now is the one that is going to curve it NE, it's "the bus" as the mets were refering it to, the 1st one (that Wilma missed) was the one that would not curve it, this 2nd one was going to make sure it curved.

[gtalum]

In the last frame on visible she started bumping west again, so this is likely all irrelevant.

[Toro694]

Chris I get your point now. It will be further north when the trough pushes it therefore hitting further up the west coast. If this was the trough already affecting it it would likely head more south though,correct?

[MiamiensisWx]

krysof your theory is good too. Maybe the weak trough now is forcing it north enough to put it in position for the second strong trough (in GOM by Sat. night/Sun) to pull it NE into Tampa Bay.

The theory may be true, but I am thinking landfall, if that scenario occurs, to be further north than Naples and closer or right at the Fort Myers/Cape Coral/Punta Gorda area or just north of that area, but not as far north as near or directly on the Tampa Bay area.

[cinlfla]

If the trough is pulling it out now, the storm begins its turn earlier than predicted. IMHO this means it will be further south. It's turning further south and further east than the NHC predicted track. Both of these factors (south and east) mean a farther south landfall in FL. This is all a big if. The north movement is only 1-2 frames on visible, and may be just a wobble.

The north movement now is not being caused by the trough per se, but very weak stearing currents and the interaction with land. So if it continues to drift north, it's position will be at a higher lattitude when the trough arrives a little later (Sat night/Sun) which would push her NE farther north on the W coast of FL.

Yes I think I read somewhere today that she could go north into the weakness and then sometime around Sat or Sun the trough will catch her and it all depends on how north she gets when the trough gets her as far as where she goes into the west coast

[WeatherEmperor]

if u notice carefully on the nasa loops, you can see that this north or northeast jog has stopped and a NW motion or jog is occuring.

<RICKY>

[PBGator]

If the trough is pulling it out now, the storm begins its turn earlier than predicted. IMHO this means it will be further south. It's turning further south and further east than the NHC predicted track. Both of these factors (south and east) mean a farther south landfall in FL. This is all a big if. The north movement is only 1-2 frames on visible, and may be just a wobble.

The north movement now is not being caused by the trough per se, but very weak stearing currents and the interaction with land. So if it continues to drift north, it's position will be at a higher lattitude when the trough arrives a little later (Sat night/Sun) which would push her NE farther north on the W coast of FL.

I don't see a drift more of a wobble, so far the NHC track has been verifying. The eye will park over NE Yucatan, weaken her a bunch and then she will enter the GOM and get pulled to the NE. Even the NHC which are no pollyannas when it comes to forecasting intensity, is suggested a significant weakening and Cat 1 when it hits SW florida around Naples. I am glad for one she is getting her cuppance. I just hope those poor folks in the Yucatan are alright.

[CHRISTY]

i disagree with you it continues wobbleing north...

[gatorcane]

PBGator I think you must have some old sat pics because she has wobbled very much N over the past 3 hours.

[gtalum]

i disagree with you it continues wobbleing north...

It bumped west on the last visible frame. It'll be more noticeable on the next one.

[gatorcane]

well I'll believe it when I see it. A nudge w followed by more N wobbles could happen though.