Hurricane Wilma - Cat. 5

[Bocadude85]

looks like wilma is starting to move again, also looks like she has weakened ever so slightly, maybe a move paralleling the coast

[Derek Ortt]

something is strange. The H-Wind says the maximum observed wind is 103KT from a dropsonde, while NHC says its 130KT. One of the two NOAA agencies is reading the maps wrong

[THead]

On IR she looks to finally be showing SOME signs of weakening. The northern and eastern eye-wall is breaking down a little. Not massive weakening, but at least a sign.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html

[HurricaneGirl]

Spinoff thunderstorms and rain up here.

[krysof]

On IR she looks to finally be showing SOME signs of weakening. The northern and eastern eye-wall is breaking down a little. Not massive weakening, but at least a sign.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html

that's normal considering land interaction is occuring

[Brent]

something is strange. The H-Wind says the maximum observed wind is 103KT from a dropsonde, while NHC says its 130KT. One of the two NOAA agencies is reading the maps wrong

Not to be nitpicky, but the NHC says 120 kt.

[gatorcane]

the more lattitude she gains, the farther north along the FL W coast landfall will be

[THead]

On IR she looks to finally be showing SOME signs of weakening. The northern and eastern eye-wall is breaking down a little. Not massive weakening, but at least a sign.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html

that's normal considering land interaction is occuring

Would have expected it to start hours ago though.

[cjrciadt]

the NHC is very hopeful

[Brent]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE WILMA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 26A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
7 PM CDT FRI OCT 21 2005

...EYE OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS WILMA MOVING SLOWLY OVER THE NORTHERN
END OF COZUMEL...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SAN FELIPE TO CHETUMAL ON
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...INCLUDING COZUMEL AND THE NEARBY ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM
WEST OF SAN FELIPE TO CELESTUN.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCES OF LA
HABANA...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE ISLE OF
YOUTH. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT IN CUBA FOR THE
PROVINCES OF MATANZAS WESTWARD THROUGH PINAR DEL RIO...AND FOR THE
ISLE OF YOUTH.

ALL INTERESTS IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE WILMA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 7 PM CDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 20.6 NORTH... LONGITUDE 86.9 WEST OR NEAR THE NORTHERN END
OF THE ISLAND OF COZUMEL.

WILMA IS MOVING ERRATICALLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 4 MPH... 6
KM/HR... AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK... THE CENTER OF WILMA IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE INLAND OVER THE EXTREME NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA TONIGHT
AND REMAIN INLAND ON SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 140 MPH...220 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WILMA IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SLIGHT FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE POSSIBLE BEFORE THE
CENTER OF WILMA MAKES LANDFALL OVER THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN
PENINSULA. SOME WEAKENING IS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
AFTER THE CENTER MOVES INLAND.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 200 MILES...325 KM. AN AUTOMATED STATION IN CANCUN REPORTED A
WIND GUST OF 133 MPH... 215 KM/HR...BEFORE CONTACT WITH THE STATION
WAS LOST.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 930 MB...27.46 INCHES. AN AUTOMATED
STATION ON COZUMEL REPORTED A PRESSURE OF 927.4 MB...27.39 INCHES
AROUND 4 PM CDT.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 7 TO 11 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS... ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES... CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER ALONG ON THE
NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA.

WILMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 10 TO 20 INCHES OF RAIN THROUGH
SUNDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...
WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 40 INCHES POSSIBLE. OUTER RAINBANDS WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN FLORIDA... ESPECIALLY THE
KEYS... WITH SOME 2 TO 4 INCH RAINS POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY.

NOAA BUOY 42003 IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO INDICATES THAT LARGE
SWELLS GENERATED BY WILMA HAVE PROPAGATED WELL INTO THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST TONIGHT.

REPEATING THE 7 PM CDT POSITION...20.6 N... 89.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 4 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...140 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 930 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 10 PM CDT.

FORECASTER BEVEN

[Category6]

It that a northern wobble occuring or is it really a change in the motion? It's hard to tell right now, the next few images will be key.

[Brent]

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 200 MILES...325 KM. AN AUTOMATED STATION IN CANCUN REPORTED A
WIND GUST OF 133 MPH... 215 KM/HR...BEFORE CONTACT WITH THE STATION
WAS LOST.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 930 MB...27.46 INCHES. AN AUTOMATED
STATION ON COZUMEL REPORTED A PRESSURE OF 927.4 MB...27.39 INCHES
AROUND 4 PM CDT.

[CHRISTY]

you can clearly see on the floater she's definitely looks like she wants to hug the coast instead of going inland!

[calculatedrisk]

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

HURRICANE WILMA 24L

INITIAL TIME 18Z OCT 21

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 20.4 86.7 320./ 4.1
6 20.6 87.1 295./ 4.1
12 20.7 87.4 291./ 2.8
18 21.1 87.6 332./ 4.2
24 21.3 87.7 334./ 2.5
30 21.7 87.7 3./ 4.2
36 22.0 87.7 353./ 2.4
42 22.5 87.6 14./ 5.4
48 23.1 87.0 39./ 7.9
54 23.9 86.2 48./11.3
60 24.6 84.9 60./13.3
66 25.8 83.3 54./18.2
72 27.1 81.2 58./23.3
78 28.9 78.4 56./30.6
84 31.8 75.6 46./37.5
90 35.9 72.7 35./47.6
96 39.9 70.3 30./44.2
102 43.1 69.7 12./31.9
108 44.7 69.7 358./16.3
114 45.8 69.9 351./10.7
120 46.2 70.5 308./ 6.1
126 46.0 70.8 231./ 3.0

[gatorcane]

next few images may mean a huge difference for FL

[jlauderdal]

you can clearly see on the floater she's definitely looks like she wants to hug the coast instead of going inland!

folks, this is a watershed post for christy.

[Bellarose]

the more lattitude she gains, the farther north along the FL W coast landfall will be

Is it me, or have more people (mets or not) been mentioning Tampa more? Not so much as a direct landfall, but as seeing more of an effect? Believe me, though I'd love a TS, I'm not "the W word" and don't want anything major. I'm mostly concerned because we have a toddler and live in an older building. The closer it comes to us, the worse our evac plan to Gainesville seems.

Thanks!

Bella

[CHRISTY]

i think its NORTH movement begining ! iam i the only one seeing this?

[gatorcane]

new frame came in. She has wobbled NNE paralleling the coast!

[THead]

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 200 MILES...325 KM. AN AUTOMATED STATION IN CANCUN REPORTED A
WIND GUST OF 133 MPH... 215 KM/HR...BEFORE CONTACT WITH THE STATION
WAS LOST.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 930 MB...27.46 INCHES. AN AUTOMATED
STATION ON COZUMEL REPORTED A PRESSURE OF 927.4 MB...27.39 INCHES
AROUND 4 PM CDT.

133mph, must not be a US made wind gauge!!