Invest 99L,Eastern Caribbean,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[Brent]

After Alpha I hereby decree SEASON CANCEL...

The Western Hemisphere is running out of resort towns to wipe out.

I was just thinking about that.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Thats a good reason why you don't build your resort town where hurricanes hit....It will likely be destroyed by a hurricane.


Lets get Alpha...

[O Town]

Good point therortically, but never going to happen. People want to vacation on the water, at least I do. It is just a sad part of having your very nice beach property on the water. It is a risk I am sure they are well aware of though.

[beachbum_al]

So where and when did I99 form? I am working too much these days.

[Thunder44]

From the 8:05pm TWD (Special Feature):

E CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 63W S OF 20N MOVING W 10 KT.
THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO GET BETTER ORGANIZED WITH BANDS OF
CONVECTION BEGINNING TO WRAP AROUND A DEVELOPING 1009 MB LOW
NEAR 14N64W. THE UPPER ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT AND THE SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS. STRONG GUSTY WINDS APPROACHING GALE
FORCE ARE NEAR AND NE OF THE LOW ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND TSTMS THROUGHOUT THE E CARIBBEAN E OF A LINE FROM MARGARITA
ISLAND TO HAITI NOW OVERSPREADING PUERTO RICO. THE LOW IS
TRACKING GENERALLY WNW AT 10-15 KT AND COULD BE APPROACHING
HISPANIOLA LATE TOMORROW.

[MiamiensisWx]

VERY INTERESTING.

[johngaltfla]

Thats a good reason why you don't build your resort town where hurricanes hit....It will likely be destroyed by a hurricane.


Lets get Alpha...

It's too late to move Orlando. But wow, what a season. Unbelievable.

[johngaltfla]

From the 8:05pm TWD (Special Feature):

E CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 63W S OF 20N MOVING W 10 KT.
THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO GET BETTER ORGANIZED WITH BANDS OF
CONVECTION BEGINNING TO WRAP AROUND A DEVELOPING 1009 MB LOW
NEAR 14N64W. THE UPPER ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT AND THE SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS. STRONG GUSTY WINDS APPROACHING GALE
FORCE ARE NEAR AND NE OF THE LOW ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND TSTMS THROUGHOUT THE E CARIBBEAN E OF A LINE FROM MARGARITA
ISLAND TO HAITI NOW OVERSPREADING PUERTO RICO. THE LOW IS
TRACKING GENERALLY WNW AT 10-15 KT AND COULD BE APPROACHING
HISPANIOLA LATE TOMORROW.

Tell me there is no high pressure building east of Florida. That's the last thing we need is another two storms in one week time period.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL992005) ON 20051022 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
051022 0000 051022 1200 051023 0000 051023 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 14.7N 65.0W 15.8N 67.4W 16.9N 69.7W 18.1N 71.7W
BAMM 14.7N 65.0W 16.1N 67.5W 17.5N 69.5W 18.9N 71.2W
A98E 14.7N 65.0W 15.7N 67.5W 16.4N 69.9W 17.5N 71.8W
LBAR 14.7N 65.0W 16.0N 67.3W 17.5N 69.2W 18.9N 71.1W
SHIP 20KTS 24KTS 29KTS 35KTS
DSHP 20KTS 24KTS 29KTS 28KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
051024 0000 051025 0000 051026 0000 051027 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 19.8N 73.4W 27.3N 72.7W 38.7N 58.7W 34.4N 37.6W
BAMM 20.7N 72.7W 28.8N 72.0W 41.1N 60.4W 44.7N 39.4W
A98E 19.2N 73.2W 24.6N 72.7W 30.9N 65.6W 36.3N 50.2W
LBAR 20.5N 72.6W 27.6N 71.8W 34.5N 66.2W 34.3N 57.4W
SHIP 40KTS 45KTS 50KTS 46KTS
DSHP 33KTS 39KTS 44KTS 39KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.7N LONCUR = 65.0W DIRCUR = 295DEG SPDCUR = 14KT
LATM12 = 13.4N LONM12 = 62.5W DIRM12 = 294DEG SPDM12 = 14KT
LATM24 = 12.7N LONM24 = 59.4W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 20NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[cajungal]

It does not appear to be any threat to the US. Most models show it going over the Dominican Republic and should rip it apart. Hopefully these models are right on and will recurve it.

[O Town]

I think we will get a named storm, but it looks like it won't effect land.

[jkt21787]

I think we will get a named storm, but it looks like it won't effect land.

Yes, it will just jump over Hispainola.

[El Nino]

What I don't like, it's the way it's going through Haiti. Remember Jeanne last year, and I've got a Haitian friend, living in Peru but with her family still over there. I'm going for a 60% chance of getting Alpha.

[krysof]

I think we will get a named storm, but it looks like it won't effect land.

Yes, it will just jump over Hispainola.

if only all storms did that

[bahamaswx]

I think we will get a named storm, but it looks like it won't effect land.

Yes, it will just jump over Hispainola.

Damned blobs teleporting all over the place. Impossible to forecast I tell ya!

[O Town]

I am sorry folks, you are right, I guess I meant to say U.S. landfall. It sure looks like it will effect Hispainola.

[Brent]

10:30pm TWO:

A WESTWARD MOVING TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS
PRODUCING SHOWERS AND WINDS GUSTING TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE OVER
THE LESSER ANTILLES...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO. THIS
SYSTEM SHOWS SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION ABOUT 290 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ABOUT 15
TO 20 MPH. INTERESTS IN PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

[cycloneye]

Graphic from TAFB about future Alpha? Will history be made once again in this 2005 season full of records?

[Brent]

Graphic from TAFB about future Alpha? Will history be made once again in this 2005 season full of records?

Yep...

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

What do you think the chances for this to develop into Alpha.