Hurricane Wilma - Cat. 5

[gatorcane]

Why does everybody think that the flat Yucatan part of the peninsula that Wilma will be over is going to weaken it significant...ummm..I don't think so. The eye should remain in tact fairly nicely. Just a slight jog to the right and she's even closer to water.

Once she's past the Yucatan she is going to stall even more than expected and the beging a NE drift towards the W. Coast of FL. Since she'll be over the loop current, she'll be right back at a CAT 4 in my opinion.

Then the trough will push her NE at about 10-15 and she'll hit very close to Tampa as a CAT 3.

Tampa Bay still IMHO.

[Damar91]

I know it's early, but the land doesn't sem to be affecting any of the storm so far, although that could change at any time.

[LanceW]

X-Y-no did you animate the GFS? It looks like its going in North of Fort Myers and exiting around Daytona. Of course this is just one of many runs that have been flopping around

At the time I posted that, it hadn't got past 66 hours so I was guesstimating. You're right - it actually brought it in a tad north of Ft. Myers.

Ok call me lazy, but where is Ft Meyers in relation to say Tampa? I know I could use Google to find it, but y'all are quicker. Thank you for entertaining my question. (I have not lived in FL that long.)

[gatorcane]

Why does everybody think that the flat Yucatan part of the peninsula that Wilma will be over is going to weaken it significantly...ummm..I don't think so. The eye should remain in tact fairly nicely as she has water on nearly every side of her that will sustain her.

Once she's past the Yucatan she is going to stall even more than expected and then begin a NNE drift towards the W. Coast of FL. Since she'll be over the loop current, she'll be right back at a CAT 4 in my opinion.

Then the trough will push her NE at about 10-15 and she'll hit very close to Tampa as a CAT 3. No way she'll move ENE as much as people think. Just no way.

What we are overlooking is the fact that it is mid-October and I've seen many cases where models make troughs way too strong initially. It usually takes about another month to see a trough the strength that these models are showing.

Tampa Bay still IMHO.

[6SpeedTA95]

X-Y-no did you animate the GFS? It looks like its going in North of Fort Myers and exiting around Daytona. Of course this is just one of many runs that have been flopping around

At the time I posted that, it hadn't got past 66 hours so I was guesstimating. You're right - it actually brought it in a tad north of Ft. Myers.

Ok call me lazy, but where is Ft Meyers in relation to say Tampa? I know I could use Google to find it, but y'all are quicker. Thank you for entertaining my question.

South of Tampa

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Why does everybody think that the flat Yucatan part of the peninsula that Wilma will be over is going to weaken it significant...ummm..I don't think so. The eye should remain in tact fairly nicely. Just a slight jog to the right and she's even closer to water.

Once she's past the Yucatan she is going to stall even more than expected and the beging a NE drift towards the W. Coast of FL. Since she'll be over the loop current, she'll be right back at a CAT 4 in my opinion.

Then the trough will push her NE at about 10-15 and she'll hit very close to Tampa as a CAT 3.

Tampa Bay still IMHO.

LOL you want me dead or something???
I thought I'd add a little humor.

[6SpeedTA95]

Why does everybody think that the flat Yucatan part of the peninsula that Wilma will be over is going to weaken it significantly...ummm..I don't think so. The eye should remain in tact fairly nicely as she has water on nearly every side of her that will sustain her.

Once she's past the Yucatan she is going to stall even more than expected and then begin a NNE drift towards the W. Coast of FL. Since she'll be over the loop current, she'll be right back at a CAT 4 in my opinion.

Then the trough will push her NE at about 10-15 and she'll hit very close to Tampa as a CAT 3. No way she'll move ENE as much as people think. Just no way.

Tampa Bay still IMHO.

I agree with Tampa but not with the Cat3 prediction. I think it'll be a 2 or less.

[Damar91]

During Max Mayfields's press conference, he was asked about Tampa being directly affected, and he didn't feel that Tampa would recieve a direct hit, but wouldn't say 100%. At this point, I think Wilma has got a few surprises left for all of us

[artist]

Remember she will be traveling over the gulf stream when she exits the Yucatan guys!

[AZS]

Forget NHC intensity forecasts......

Useless.....

Whoaa man!!!

Go ahead and have your opinions about the NHC intensity forecast, but please don't put "Useless" above one of our products.

I agree with your point and the NHC has admitted publicly that they are having a great deal of difficulty in predicting the future intensity of these storm, but that map contains a lot more data than the just intensity.

Thanks for using our maps. Most folks find them "Useful".

Sorry about that...

Skeet maps are very useful.

I was trying to say that NHC has problems with intensity, and i used the map only to show WILMA intensity forecast.............

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Remember she will be traveling over the gulf stream when she exits the Yucatan guys!

Hey I was feelin real good and relieved with it forecasted to
weaken to cat-1, that's still strong but no where near as bad as cat 3.
now don't get me all worried again...

[Damar91]

During the last frame of the IR loop, it looks like some of the reds around the eye wall are finally starting to diminish. Maybe the weaking trend?

[AZS]

[inotherwords]

Remember she will be traveling over the gulf stream when she exits the Yucatan guys!

Remember there is significant shear in its way. Water temperatures are only part of the equation.

[skysummit]

Remember she will be traveling over the gulf stream when she exits the Yucatan guys!

Remember there is significant shear in its way. Water temperatures are only part of the equation.

No shear anywhere around her right now though.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Should I feel relieved that this will only be CAT 1 when it comes
to FL? Or might it be stronger?

I mean CAT 1 is bad but it's weak compared to cat 3.

[Damar91]

Sheer is actually decreasing ahead of her, that can't be good.

[markymark8]

Why does everybody think that the flat Yucatan part of the peninsula that Wilma will be over is going to weaken it significantly...ummm..I don't think so. The eye should remain in tact fairly nicely as she has water on nearly every side of her that will sustain her.

Once she's past the Yucatan she is going to stall even more than expected and then begin a NNE drift towards the W. Coast of FL. Since she'll be over the loop current, she'll be right back at a CAT 4 in my opinion.

Then the trough will push her NE at about 10-15 and she'll hit very close to Tampa as a CAT 3. No way she'll move ENE as much as people think. Just no way.

What we are overlooking is the fact that it is mid-October and I've seen many cases where models make troughs way too strong initially. It usually takes about another month to see a trough the strength that these models are showing.

Tampa Bay still IMHO.

The latest loop looks as if she is moving even slower and looks to be wanting to become stationary pretty soon. The eye doesnt have much further inland to go and if it makes it onshore it could sit there over land for a long time. The NHC says could be close to 24 hours and some models show this as well. She will be torn up bigtime. Remember Katrina was on flatland too when she came offshore from the southwestern coast of Florida but......she exited really quick and the land only weakened her just a hair if any. If Katrina would of been almost stationary over Florida for up to 24 hours her core could of been disrupted bigtime even though her eye was so strong. Landmass destroys Hurricanes especially if they stay over it for a while. If Wilma decides to become stationary right now then her core could stay intact better being most of her center would be offshore. That dealio has to happen now and not wobble any more back to the west. She could then hold her own maybe and end up being a strong cat 2 or weak 3 hitting Florida

[gatorcane]

she has slowed down considerably over the past few hours...she most only be moving around 3-5 mph right now. It really almost seems like she is trying hard to avoid a landfall.

Why is it that hurricanes seem to sense where land is?

[Damar91]

Boca, they have eyes!