Hurricane Wilma - Cat. 5

markymark8 · #2961 Postby **markymark8** » Fri Oct 21, 2005 4:54 pm

Yeah but wait till the center has been over land for a long time. She will look awful. Florida is breathing alot easier now. They will be having Hurricane partys if she comes in a cat 1 like they are forecasting now. I just dont see how the surge will be a big deal since shes making landfall. Its not like she will be able to bring all her wave and surge action from the caribbean to the Florida coast especially after being on land for a while. :roll:

#2962 Postby **skysummit** » Fri Oct 21, 2005 4:55 pm

markymark8 wrote:Yeah but wait till the center has been over land for a long time. She will look awful. Florida is breathing alot easier now. They will be having Hurricane partys if she comes in a cat 1 like they are forecasting now. I just dont see how the surge will be a big deal since shes making landfall. Its not like she will be able to bring all her wave and surge action from the caribbean to the Florida coast especially after being on land for a while.

On land for a while? HUH? She's still over water.

#2963 Postby **fci** » Fri Oct 21, 2005 4:55 pm

CronkPSU wrote:
thunderchief wrote:
shawn67 wrote:
Foladar0 wrote:
CHRISTY wrote:can someone take a look at a close satilite image and tell me what they see.. i see in the very last image a jump to the north?

Yes, it's called a wobble..

Cut her some slack...usually wobble are insignificant but in this situation they can be huge in regards to the amount of this Wilma is on the YP.

Shawn

just before landfall is the only time to pay attention to the wobbles.

i would say it is just before landfall for those in mexico

While I agree it is, Christy is singularly concerned about what the woblle means to where she lives; in Homestead Fl. And as it relates to where she llives, the wobble is inconsequential.

Vandora · #2964 Postby **Vandora** » Fri Oct 21, 2005 4:56 pm

They will be having Hurricane partys if she comes in a cat 1 like they are forecasting now.

Sorry, but I don't think I'd go THAT far. When Katrina hit here as a Cat 1, I don't know anyone who was celebrating... Just saying.

krysof · #2965 Postby **krysof** » Fri Oct 21, 2005 4:56 pm

Wilma looks like a very symetrical, deep convection, large eye, in other words, it looks like a good looking hurricane. I rarely see such hurricanes when they impact land. That eye looks spectacular on satellite imagery, so symetrical and clear.

Gulfer · #2966 Postby **Gulfer** » Fri Oct 21, 2005 4:56 pm

CHRISTY wrote:looks to me that she's being pulled to the north...

If I had a nickel for everytime I read a post on this thread like this in the last 24hrs I'd be a few dollars ahead

Nothing personal and certainly not just you...So many said there's no way Wilma hits the Yucatan because it didn't "look" like it could happen and it was going due north, or even east to some people last night.

Damar91 · #2967 Postby **Damar91** » Fri Oct 21, 2005 4:56 pm

Wilma will bea Cat 5 when it strikes the Florida east coast!!!!! ( j/k), :lol:

Seriously though, everyone needs to relax and enjoy the Dolphins game tonight, and tommorow we will know much, much more about all of this!

artist · #2968 Postby **artist** » Fri Oct 21, 2005 4:57 pm

But she will be exiting only to re-emrge with the gulf stream or loop current it may be called there. Would that not effect her ability to re strengthen and she could be on it all the way to the coast.

#2969 Postby **fci** » Fri Oct 21, 2005 4:59 pm

Patrick99 wrote:What will the tagline of the 5PM news be....."Miami Dodges Another Bullet?" Unless it pulls a dancing Ivan, I just get the feeling of a big non-event over here. I don't see how she could maintain hurricane strength for that long over land.

Prepare to be blasted for your post.

Not from me, though; as I agree.

x-y-no · #2970 Postby **x-y-no** » Fri Oct 21, 2005 4:59 pm

18Z GFS continued ...

Looks like about a Ft. Myers area landfall on this run ...

Large scale image: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/18/images/gfs_slp_066l.gif

#2971 Postby **tracyswfla** » Fri Oct 21, 2005 5:00 pm

[quote="x-y-no"]18Z GFS continued ...

Looks like about a Ft. Myers area landfall on this run ...

GFS has been flip flopping between Ft. Myers and Naples....

markymark8 · #2972 Postby **markymark8** » Fri Oct 21, 2005 5:03 pm

Vandora wrote:
They will be having Hurricane partys if she comes in a cat 1 like they are forecasting now.

Sorry, but I don't think I'd go THAT far. When Katrina hit here as a Cat 1, I don't know anyone who was celebrating... Just saying.

Well we used to when we had weak cat 1 hurricane come ashore when i used to live 5 miles from coast. Maybe we were just young and stupid.

#2973 Postby **fci** » Fri Oct 21, 2005 5:03 pm

CHRISTY wrote:looks to me that she's being pulled to the north...

I T I S A W O B B L E!!!

#2974 Postby **THead** » Fri Oct 21, 2005 5:05 pm

vbhoutex wrote:
THead wrote:
AZS wrote:Forget NHC intensity forecasts......

Useless.....

Yeah, please don't tell us that NHC intensity forecast has been spot on with Wilma. I have utmost respect for NHC, but intensity is a real crap shoot it seems.

Yes you are correct that intensity is a real crap shoot and I have even seen and heard some of their mets state that. But we weren't talking intensity in my post and the picture you posted was from when she was still a TD and in the formative stages. GMAB!!!

Well, yes she was talking about intensity, and was asking people to read the discussion. 48 hours later it was sitting at 901mb when NHC only had it as a minimal hurricane. That being said, NHC as usual this year, had the track nailed perfectly, just like they were looking into a crystal ball. Hopefully they will get the funding they need so badly and will be able to nail the intensity as well as the track. Then there will be alot less pages on this thread..........maybe.
:wink:

thermos · #2975 Postby **thermos** » Fri Oct 21, 2005 5:06 pm

vbhoutex wrote:Yes you are correct that intensity is a real crap shoot and I have even seen and heard some of their mets state that. But we weren't talking intensity in my post and the picture you posted was from when she was still a TD and in the formative stages. GMAB!!!

What were you talking about then you when you said their forecast has been accurate. Remember it was almost supposed to be in Florida by this point not wandering around the Yucatan as they now forecast. Rita and Katrina's forecasts were much more accurate than this one. Unless you mean that just the NHC's 24 hour forecasts have been accurate with Wilma.

#2976 Postby **SkeetoBite** » Fri Oct 21, 2005 5:06 pm

AZS wrote:Forget NHC intensity forecasts......

Useless.....

Whoaa man!!!

Go ahead and have your opinions about the NHC intensity forecast, but please don't put "Useless" above one of our products.

I agree with your point and the NHC has admitted publicly that they are having a great deal of difficulty in predicting the future intensity of these storm, but that map contains a lot more data than the just intensity.

Thanks for using our maps. Most folks find them "Useful".

#2977 Postby **storms in NC** » Fri Oct 21, 2005 5:07 pm

fci wrote:
CHRISTY wrote:looks to me that she's being pulled to the north...

I T I S A W O B B L E!!!

Yes a wobble BUT if you run a vis loop and you will see that it might not make the next mark. The eye is to the right of the island now.

cinlfla · #2978 Postby **cinlfla** » Fri Oct 21, 2005 5:07 pm

x-y-no wrote:18Z GFS continued ...

Looks like about a Ft. Myers area landfall on this run ...

Large scale image: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/18/images/gfs_slp_066l.gif

X-Y-no did you animate the GFS? It looks like its going in North of Fort Myers and exiting around Daytona. Of course this is just one of many runs that have been flopping around

markymark8 · #2979 Postby **markymark8** » Fri Oct 21, 2005 5:10 pm

THead wrote:
vbhoutex wrote:
THead wrote:
AZS wrote:Forget NHC intensity forecasts......

Useless.....

Yeah, please don't tell us that NHC intensity forecast has been spot on with Wilma. I have utmost respect for NHC, but intensity is a real crap shoot it seems.

Yes you are correct that intensity is a real crap shoot and I have even seen and heard some of their mets state that. But we weren't talking intensity in my post and the picture you posted was from when she was still a TD and in the formative stages. GMAB!!!

Well, yes she was talking about intensity, and was asking people to read the discussion. 48 hours later it was sitting at 901mb when NHC only had it as a minimal hurricane. That being said, NHC as usual this year, had the track nailed perfectly, just like they were looking into a crystal ball. Hopefully they will get the funding they need so badly and will be able to nail the intensity as well as the track. Then there will be alot less pages on this thread..........maybe.

DIDO!!! Well put. Hopefully they will get their funding they need to get this intensity dealio just as good as their forecast tracking and have alot of less stressed people and right evacuation orders as well.

x-y-no · #2980 Postby **x-y-no** » Fri Oct 21, 2005 5:14 pm

cinlfla wrote:
X-Y-no did you animate the GFS? It looks like its going in North of Fort Myers and exiting around Daytona. Of course this is just one of many runs that have been flopping around

At the time I posted that, it hadn't got past 66 hours so I was guesstimating. You're right - it actually brought it in a tad north of Ft. Myers.

Hurricane Wilma - Cat. 5

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