Rain Event in Florida

[sfwx]

As Wilma lashes out on Mexico, the rain is already being felt 600 miles away in Florida. It seems as if Wilma will be a big rain maker in Florida as it sits on or near the Yucatan. The forecasters have talked about the minimal impact of rain as Wilma races across Florida early next week, BUT not much has been mentioned about the three days prior to landfall. It is odd to have this much rain BEFORE a storm that is three days out, but nothing surprises me in October!!

Eric

[djtil]

nope....not odd....anyone in the tropics withing a few hundred miles east of a hurricane is going to have a very rainy period due to the flow.

[sfwx]

I guess I can only compare it to last years storms that came from the East. We didn't get the rains until the storm was much closer.

[djtil]

yeah, with storms coming from the east you get subsidence (sinking air) and flow off the mainland.....with storms coming from the west you get that nice southerly tropical flow with lots of moisture...


the reason they are downplaying the rain event with the storm is because she will be flying when she crosses....but until then it will definitely be squally.

[sfwx]

NWS (MLB) had an interesting discussion at 3:00 p.m.

HURRICANE WILMA HAS TURNED MORE TO THE W/NW TODAY AND THE EYE IS
CURRENTLY PASSING SLOWLY OVER THE ISLAND OF COZUMEL TOWARD THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA. DEEPENING TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER FL COMBINED WITH
DAYTIME HEATING IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN
AND OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKES MOVING NORTHWARD. SOME AREAS MAY
EXPERIENCE SEVERAL ROUNDS OF HEAVY SHOWERS WHICH WOULD PRODUCE
URBAN/LOWLAND FLOODING. EXPECT COVERAGE TO DECREASE WITH SUNSET. LOW
LEVEL FLOW VEERING TO THE S/SW OVERNIGHT WILL LIMIT SHOWERS
ADVECTING ONSHORE FROM THE ATLC.

PWATS OVER 2" EXPECTED SATURDAY WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FROM HIGH
CLOUDS. WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES HIGH (60%) BUT NOT AS HIGH AS GFS MOS
(80-90%). LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED *AGAIN* AND THE CONCERN
IS THAT WE SATURATE THE GROUND BEFORE A POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE
PASSAGE. WILL HOLD OFF ON FLOOD WATCH FOR NOW BUT HEAVY RAINS ARE
ANTICIPATED WELL IN ADVANCE OF WILMA...EVEN IF IT TRACKS WELL TO OUR
SOUTH.


SAT NIGHT...AIRMASS WILL REMAIN QUITE MOIST WITH MEAN SE FLOW AND
PWAT IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES. NUMEROUS SHOWERS IN THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT WILL BE SUPPLEMENTED BY SHALLOW FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING
INTO THE FORECAST BY EARLY SUN. DUE TO PRESENCE OF STALLING BOUNDARY
THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS.

SUNDAY THROUGH MON NIGHT...LATEST NHC TRACK FORECAST SHOWS WILMA
ENTERING THE GULF SUNDAY THEN ACCELERATING TOWARD THE SOUTHERN
PENINSULA WITH PASSAGE OVER THE STATE ON MONDAY. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS EXISTS DUE TO ENCROACHING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL TO N FL SAT AND DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE. WILMA
WILL LIKELY SHOW AN EXPANDING WIND FIELD MON AS SHE BEGINS
TRANSITIONING TO A HYBRID SYSTEM. PSEUDO WARM SECTOR LIFTING NWD
ACROSS A PORTION OF THE AREA IN CONJUNCTION WITH APCH OF SYS WL
POTENTIALLY INCREASE TORNADO AND SEVERE WEATHER ENVIRONMENT AND WE
WILL HAVE A BETTER HANDLE FOR LIKELIHOOD OR THIS OCCURRING LATER
THIS WEEKEND. CURRENT PATH BRINGS THE HIGHEST RISK FROM STRONG WINDS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES...BUT ALL OF EC FL MAY EXPERIENCE AT
LEAST TROP STORM FORCE WINDS IN A RELATIVELY BRIEF WINDOW OF 5 TO 7
HOURS. PERSONS ARE URGED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THE LATEST FORECASTS
AND BE READY TO TAKE PROTECTIVE ACTIONS FROM WILMA.