Max Mayfield news conference

#1 Postby **cycloneye** » Fri Oct 21, 2005 3:15 pm

At 4:45 PM EDT at Fox,CNN,MSNBC he will give out the latest forecast and projections.

Foladar0 · #2 Postby **Foladar0** » Fri Oct 21, 2005 3:16 pm

Thanks!
Appreciate what you do for us!

jax · #3 Postby **jax** » Fri Oct 21, 2005 3:26 pm

I wonder if it will be slower and weeker again...

Website · #4 Postby **Brent** » Fri Oct 21, 2005 3:29 pm

I'm actually thinking the track will be a little faster...

The 5pm advisory will likely be out by then though, at least the marine and public advisory.

jax · #5 Postby **jax** » Fri Oct 21, 2005 3:55 pm

yep... slower and weaker... she may even be just a TS by landfall!
That's great news! Looking at thwe NHC forcast map... looks like
most of the worst weather will be in the glades at that.

Website · #6 Postby **Brent** » Fri Oct 21, 2005 3:55 pm

NHC still has a strong Cat 1 as of 5pm...

jax · #7 Postby **jax** » Fri Oct 21, 2005 4:00 pm

Brent wrote:NHC still has a strong Cat 1 as of 5pm...

they have been trending down the forcast for 3 days now... if
the trend continues... it'll just be a gusty rain event for extream
southwest fl... that would be a blessing... prepare for the worst
and hope best.

Foladar0 · #8 Postby **Foladar0** » Fri Oct 21, 2005 4:01 pm

jax wrote:
Brent wrote:NHC still has a strong Cat 1 as of 5pm...

they have been trending down the forcast for 3 days now... if
the trend continues... it'll just be a gusty rain event for extream
southwest fl... that would be a blessing... prepare for the worst
and hope best.

Talk about wishful thinking..

jax · #9 Postby **jax** » Fri Oct 21, 2005 4:14 pm

Foladar0 wrote:
jax wrote:
Brent wrote:NHC still has a strong Cat 1 as of 5pm...

they have been trending down the forcast for 3 days now... if
the trend continues... it'll just be a gusty rain event for extream
southwest fl... that would be a blessing... prepare for the worst
and hope best.

Talk about wishful thinking..

again... prepare for the worst... and hope for the best... and it's
looking better all the time for SW Florida... and THAT is good news.

#10 Postby **kranki** » Fri Oct 21, 2005 4:39 pm

This is my first review of the advisories since the 5am one. I spent most of the day literally bolting my windows shut (a long story) and working the next bit of framing in the garage to elevate a few more things.

The 5pm advisory is very good news. I know that we are not out of the woods, but this looks much better than a low 3/ high 2. I am now thinking that the storm surge may only be 4' for me which leaves me above it.

Btw, the storm surge infront of my house for Dennis was 2.5' and 2' with both, Katrina and Rita. I have a boat basin that is 3' above mean high tide. (My pool and garages are another foot above the boat basin.) So, I can watch it from the house.

However, I will be finishing the framing projects tomorrow and planning for the worst as was previously stated.

#11 Postby **kranki** » Fri Oct 21, 2005 7:35 pm

This is my first review of the advisories since the 5am one. I spent most of the day literally bolting my windows shut (a long story) and working the next bit of framing in the garage to elevate a few more things.

The 5pm advisory is very good news. I know that we are not out of the woods, but this looks much better than a low 3/ high 2. I am now thinking that the storm surge may only be 4' for me which leaves me above it.

Btw, the storm surge infront of my house for Dennis was 2.5' and 2' with both, Katrina and Rita. I have a boat basin that is 3' above mean high tide. (My pool and garages are another foot above the boat basin.) So, I can watch it from the house.

However, I will be finishing the framing projects tomorrow and planning for the worst as was previously stated.

k-man · #12 Postby **k-man** » Fri Oct 21, 2005 9:09 pm

Foladar0 wrote:
jax wrote:
Brent wrote:NHC still has a strong Cat 1 as of 5pm...

they have been trending down the forcast for 3 days now... if
the trend continues... it'll just be a gusty rain event for extream
southwest fl... that would be a blessing... prepare for the worst
and hope best.

Talk about wishful thinking..

I love these posts. All of the brilliant minds behind the computer models and all of the talent at the NHC and it's all just "wishful thinking". Why, because you'd like to see a much stronger storm plow through Florida? Just curious. I think I'll put my money in the NHC.

#13 Postby **SkeetoBite** » Sun Oct 23, 2005 4:15 pm

Otober 23, 2005 - 5PM EST

Summary of Max Mayfield comments:

-Down to 959 Mb
-Hurricane is tilted.
-Max winds at 105 mph.
-Some suface winds stronger than at flight level.
-Could see minimal strengthening, possible minimal cat 3 at landfall.
-Large hurricane with hurricane force winds 85 miles tropical storm force winds 235 miles
-Conditions to degrade in keys later tonight
-Southwest coast affects begin late tonight
-Track forecast has been staeady for 3 or 4 days.
-Slight shift left or right would not be a surprise
-Hazards to be clear on storm surge 9 to 17 feet on gulf coast near and south of landfall, specifically from the
current track south to cape sable area
-FL keys and Lakel Okeechobee: 5 to 8 feet of storm surge
-East coast: most significant surge on back side pushing in from Florida Bay - watch wave action
-Marine community: Do not ride out a hurricane on your boat. Please don't do this.
-4 to 8 in of rain for south fl keys with 12 inches in isolated areas
-tornados expected over south and central florida
-Wilma Will take of "like a rocket" into the Atlantic after landfall

#14 Postby **cjrciadt** » Sun Oct 23, 2005 4:20 pm

SkeetoBite wrote:Otober 23, 2005 - 5PM EST

Summary of Max Mayfield comments:

-Down to 959 Mb
-Hurricane is tilted.
-Max winds at 105 mph.
-Some suface winds stronger than at flight level.
-Could see minimal strengthening, possible minimal cat 3 at landfall.
-Large hurricane with hurricane force winds 85 miles tropical storm force winds 235 miles
-Conditions to degrade in keys later tonight
-Southwest coast affects begin late tonight
-Track forecast has been staeady for 3 or 4 days.
-Slight shift left or right would not be a surprise
-Hazards to be clear on storm surge 9 to 17 feet on gulf coast near and south of landfall, specifically from the
current track south to cape sable area
-FL keys and Lakel Okeechobee: 5 to 8 feet of storm surge
-East coast: most significant surge on back side pushing in from Florida Bay - watch wave action
-Marine community: Do not ride out a hurricane on your boat. Please don't do this.
-4 to 8 in of rain for south fl keys with 12 inches in isolated areas
-tornados expected over south and central florida
-Wilma Will take of "like a rocket" into the Atlantic after landfall

Thanks really concerned about the tornado threat here.

HurryKane · #15 Postby **HurryKane** » Sun Oct 23, 2005 4:30 pm

k-man wrote:
Foladar0 wrote:
jax wrote:
Brent wrote:NHC still has a strong Cat 1 as of 5pm...

they have been trending down the forcast for 3 days now... if
the trend continues... it'll just be a gusty rain event for extream
southwest fl... that would be a blessing... prepare for the worst
and hope best.

Talk about wishful thinking..

I love these posts. All of the brilliant minds behind the computer models and all of the talent at the NHC and it's all just "wishful thinking". Why, because you'd like to see a much stronger storm plow through Florida? Just curious. I think I'll put my money in the NHC.

Hmm. I read that as 'thinking it will just be a gusty rain event' was wishful thinking...in other words, that Foladar0 thought jax was understating what the impact of Wilma could be.

But I'm neither author and could be way wrong.

#16 Postby **kranki** » Sun Oct 23, 2005 4:37 pm

Thanks for the update. So far, the really nasty parts of the bands have bypassed where I live (Atlantic Side, 25mi from Key West). The wind looks to be at about 30kts out of the SE.

The current forecast according to NOAA is 70-75mph winds with gusts to 110mph.

The biggest thing to me is the storm surge. For the past 3 storms, the NHC/local radio has forecast the surge to be 5-8 feet. It has only been 2-2.5 feet where I live. I will let you know what it is here.

However, I am not trying to down play it. A spot 1.5 miles from here consistently gets much higher surge.

Anyway, it will be an interesting evening/night.

Hfcomms · #17 Postby **Hfcomms** » Sun Oct 23, 2005 4:43 pm

Doesn't look like Max is calling for a Cat 1. He's calling for a 2 to a possible borderline Cat 3. In addition the surge is going to take out a lot of those who thought this wasn't going to be a big deal.

It isn't about hoping and wishing that the storm is stronger to hurt Florida or those in Florida, it's about always preparing for the worst and saving of lives. If more of those in the gulf had taken this mindset to heart not as many would of died.

acidus · #18 Postby **acidus** » Sun Oct 23, 2005 4:45 pm

kranki wrote:The current forecast according to NOAA is 70-75mph winds with gusts to 110mph.

Where are you seeing this? The 5PM NHC discussion has it at 75kts (86mph) in 24 hours... which is several hours after landfall.

#19 Postby **kranki** » Sun Oct 23, 2005 9:05 pm

acidus,

this is the site, http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/forecasts/ ... erland+Key and it is still saying the same thing.

Wind is definitely more active. I would guess 45-50kts. The storm surge is plus 1-1.5 feet.

#20 Postby **cycloneye** » Sun Oct 23, 2005 10:01 pm

Max Mayfield speaking now at press conference seen at Fox,CNN and MSNBC.

Max Mayfield news conference

Max Mayfield news conference

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