Invest 99L,Eastern Caribbean,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

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msbee
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#41 Postby msbee » Fri Oct 21, 2005 10:52 am

bvigal wrote:I agree, too. You can't call a system a "fish" once it's in the Caribbean.

The definition of "fish" isn't that it doesn't hit the continental U.S., but that it curves out into Atlantic before reaching ANY land of any kind.


exactly, and the islands are land masses :-)
I know everyone wants to see records broken with an Alpha storm, but, I am sorry, it still bothers me, when people are cheerleading for an Alpha storm that , in this case, would obviously NOT be a fish.
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Aqua Teen Hunger Force

#42 Postby Aqua Teen Hunger Force » Fri Oct 21, 2005 11:02 am

HURAKAN wrote:LETS GO ALPHA!!!!!

Image


This thread is making me sick.
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#43 Postby KatDaddy » Fri Oct 21, 2005 11:07 am

ALPHA IS NEARING

8-) 8-) 8-) 8-) 8-) 8-) 8-) 8-) 8-) 8-) 8-) 8-) 8-) 8-) 8-)

A WESTWARD MOVING TROPICAL WAVE THAT HAS ENTERED THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA THIS MORNING IS PRODUCING SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS
OVER PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS
FROM SATELLITE IMAGERY THAT A SURFACE CIRCULATION COULD BE
FORMING... AND SHOWER ACTIVITY REMAINS FAIRLY CONCENTRATED NEAR THE
DEVELOPING CIRCULATION CENTER. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS SYSTEM
COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
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#44 Postby bvigal » Fri Oct 21, 2005 11:36 am

uhhh..., KatDaddy, you might want to read the thread before posting. Someone has already posted that, someone else quoted it, and some of us are not exactly cheerleading for this storm. :(
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#45 Postby Canelaw99 » Fri Oct 21, 2005 11:40 am

I can understand the not wanting to cheer for a storm. I, for one, would love to see a storm get just enough strength to be named Alpha so we get it, then it can dissipate. IMO, this thread is about the invest that's out there, not about whether we're cheering for a storm or not. We're all weather enthusiasts at this board, and I think most of us would like to see more history made this season. Now, with that said, none of us want to see people harmed to get it :wink:
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#46 Postby Brent » Fri Oct 21, 2005 11:45 am

Sorry guys...

It's going to move quickly so rainfall will be limited, and it'll almost certainly be weak so there's no real concern for wind damage.
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#47 Postby aujames95 » Fri Oct 21, 2005 11:45 am

Aqua Teen Hunger Force wrote:
HURAKAN wrote:LETS GO ALPHA!!!!!

Image


This thread is making me sick.


Amen to that!!
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#48 Postby skysummit » Fri Oct 21, 2005 11:50 am

Heck...we've come this far. Why not just 1 more to break the record!
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#49 Postby bvigal » Fri Oct 21, 2005 11:59 am

Well I think we have no doubt we'll see an alpha storm before this season is over. As for 99L.INVEST, it looks like a circulation and its boiling up fast. Were having dangerous winds for mariners and just had a special marine warning issued.
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#50 Postby HUC » Fri Oct 21, 2005 12:12 pm

Strong squalls here in the south tip of Guadeloupe,with sustained winds around 30,35knots,gusts 40kts;small trees and folliage over the streets,and users advised to run carefully.
Sure Alpha is on the way!!!
Agreat pray for our friends in Cozummel,this is an other story!!!!
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MiamiensisWx

#51 Postby MiamiensisWx » Fri Oct 21, 2005 12:32 pm

I know that Wilma is much more important, but this looks somewhat interesting as well. I think I see a slight spin within the convection, indicating a possible developing center.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-ir4-loop.html

Who agrees?
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#52 Postby skysummit » Fri Oct 21, 2005 12:33 pm

CapeVerdeWave wrote:I know that Wilma is much more important, but this looks somewhat interesting as well. I think I see a slight spin within the convection, indicating a possible developing center.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-ir4-loop.html

Who agrees?


I'm tending to agree....I see something possibly starting.
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MiamiensisWx

#53 Postby MiamiensisWx » Fri Oct 21, 2005 12:36 pm

skysummit wrote:I'm tending to agree....I see something possibly starting.


Agreed... when Wilma gets out of the picture and after dealing with Wilma's aftermath (in the Yucatan Peninsula and elsewhere) this may easily become something to watch.
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#54 Postby skysummit » Fri Oct 21, 2005 12:38 pm

CapeVerdeWave wrote:
skysummit wrote:I'm tending to agree....I see something possibly starting.


Agreed... when Wilma gets out of the picture and after dealing with Wilma's aftermath (in the Yucatan Peninsula and elsewhere) this may easily become something to watch.


Yea...if Wilma can get out of the way fast enough. Right now, there's shear ahead of 99L.
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#55 Postby bvigal » Fri Oct 21, 2005 12:45 pm

Image
everyone here is asking me, "how quickly will this pass by and get some good weather?" I don't see any good weather for a while...
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#56 Postby wlfpack81 » Fri Oct 21, 2005 1:05 pm

Brent wrote:Sorry guys...

It's going to move quickly so rainfall will be limited, and it'll almost certainly be weak so there's no real concern for wind damage.


Well, even a fast moving rain event over Haiti is still bad due to the horrible poverty issues in that country. Just for talking points based on the early model guidance (http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/%7Evig ... early1.png) looks like a 12-24hr period as the storm would cross Haiti. This could still be fairly bad situation for that country should a scenario like that pan out.
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#57 Postby cycloneye » Fri Oct 21, 2005 1:14 pm

AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 62W SOUTH OF 20N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WATERS JUST WEST OF
THE ISLANDS FROM 12N...JUST CLIPPING GRENADA...TO 15N BETWEEN
61W AND 65W. OTHER CLUSTERS AND CELLS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE WATERS AND ISLANDS FROM 15N NORTH TO 20N
BETWEEN 60W AND 65W. A TROUGH RUNS FROM A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
LOW CENTER IN NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE
EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
DRY AIR SURROUNDS THIS LOW CENTER FROM 6N TO 13N BETWEEN 65W AND
74W. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS FROM SATELLITE IMAGERY THAT A
SURFACE CIRCULATION COULD BE FORMING...AND SHOWER ACTIVITY
REMAINS FAIRLY CONCENTRATED NEAR THE DEVELOPING CIRCULATION
CENTER. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

2 PM Special Feature Discussion.
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#58 Postby schmita » Fri Oct 21, 2005 1:42 pm

Very windy here. Estimate gusts to 30 mph. Lagoon has rolling white caps. Very dark. Raining steadily.
I agree w/BVI gal. Doesn't look like good weather any time soon.
irina
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#59 Postby cycloneye » Fri Oct 21, 2005 1:46 pm


TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL992005) ON 20051021 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
051021 1800 051022 0600 051022 1800 051023 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 13.3N 64.4W 14.4N 66.8W 15.5N 69.1W 16.7N 71.4W
BAMM 13.3N 64.4W 14.5N 67.0W 16.0N 69.2W 17.3N 71.1W
A98E 13.3N 64.4W 13.9N 67.5W 14.3N 70.3W 14.9N 72.8W
LBAR 13.3N 64.4W 14.1N 67.1W 15.4N 69.5W 16.8N 71.9W
SHIP 20KTS 24KTS 31KTS 37KTS
DSHP 20KTS 24KTS 31KTS 37KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
051023 1800 051024 1800 051025 1800 051026 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 18.1N 73.4W 23.4N 76.2W 33.0N 71.2W 41.9N 46.8W
BAMM 18.9N 72.7W 24.3N 74.3W 34.4N 69.9W 43.8N 52.4W
A98E 15.9N 74.8W 18.1N 77.2W 20.7N 76.9W 24.6N 75.3W
LBAR 18.7N 73.9W 25.3N 74.6W .0N .0W .0N .0W
SHIP 44KTS 49KTS 52KTS 48KTS
DSHP 40KTS 45KTS 48KTS 44KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 13.3N LONCUR = 64.4W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 16KT
LATM12 = 12.9N LONM12 = 61.2W DIRM12 = 277DEG SPDM12 = 17KT
LATM24 = 12.6N LONM24 = 57.8W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 20NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
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#60 Postby LanceW » Fri Oct 21, 2005 1:47 pm

Hmmm, TS in 48 hours?
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